Chart of the Month Sep 2026 - Golden Vindication

Welcome to Chart of the Month for September 2026 with The Contrarian Capitalist and Tom Bradshaw.

4 small bits of housekeeping

* This video was recorded on Tuesday 15th September 2026 PM UK Time.

* None of this is to be constituted as investment or trading advice. We are NOT financial advisors.

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How Overvalued is Gold?

Bullet Pointed Transcript via AI (for those that don’t have time to watch the full video)

* Tom Bradshaw bought gold (via ETFs) in late 2021 near $1,800 when it was strongly undervalued (~107%), then sold at $4,600 in 2026 after momentum turned negative, for a 156% gain (~22% annualized over 4.75 years).

* He only sold paper gold/ETFs, not physical holdings.

* His model combines a long-term valuation “rainbow chart” (back to 1970) with momentum signals from multiple moving averages (mainly 6–15 months).

* Gold peaked near $5,600 in January 2026 at 71% overvalued; as of 15 September 2026 it is around $4,000 and still ~40% overvalued.

* Fair value on the model is currently about $3,000.

* The same model correctly flagged major historical lows (1970, 1976, 2000, 2009, 2015) as undervalued and major peaks (1974, 1980, 2007, 2011, 2026) as overvalued.

* Multiple independent signals (historical 45–50% declines from similar overvaluation, long-term trend line, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and a potential head-and-shoulders top) point to a downside target near $2,800.

* He expects a relatively short 1–2 year correction (similar to 1974–76), not a multi-year bear market, followed by another strong rally that could reach $9,000.

* Proceeds were moved into short-term U.S. 3-month Treasury bills yielding ~4% while waiting for better valuations across assets (S&P ~172% overvalued, etc.).

* The analysis is shared for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

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