Choosin' Texas with Bobby Pulido

0:00For a limited time, you can get a big Mac meal for just $8. That's a burger, fries, and a drink. They don't call it an extra-value meal for nothing. Get a big Mac meal only at McDonald's. Pricing participation may vary. Promotion pricing may be lower than meal pricing. I just bought a new auto-mobile the same way they did in the 1900's when movies were silent. Wow. Well, I just got this Jeep from Flexcar. All my smacker rules go to paying off the hefty value. This little gas buggy lost the second I chugged out of the dealership. Okay, well, Flexcar includes maintenance and insurance. And I can switch to an F-150 or Mercedes anytime. What are you high on, giggle-jews? Buying a car supposed to be the bum deal. You pretend as the bison's berries. I have no idea what you're saying. The first and only month to month, Carlyce. Flexcar, you drive everything. Welcome to PlotSafe America.

1:07I'm John Fabro. I'm John Lovey. I'm Tommy Vittor. I'm Dan Fiper. We're excited to be here at TripFest. We're going to get into all the big races across the country and here in Texas. Bobby Polito is here. He'll be coming out soon. Before we get to the news, if you guys are free tomorrow and you want to help elect Democrats, we will be doing two events. We'd love to have you out. We're going to be from one to three. We'll be joining VotSafe America and the Travis County Democrats for a canvas at Pan American Park in East Austin. So come join us. You don't need to sign up to show up. Let's start with the number one Texas Longhorns. And you know who's excited for the game tomorrow? Donald Trump.

2:08But you know what? He's going to Tennessee. And he has no plans to come back to Texas so far. I don't think he's coming back again before Election Day. He is however planning trips to Alabama and Oklahoma. Yeah, I thought I would get some booze there. But no real competitive races in either of those states. He has no plans to come back here. And Republicans, meanwhile here in Texas, Republicans are spending like the equivalent of a GDP of like a midsize country to try to save Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott and maybe even the Republican majority in the state. Dan, what do you make of this new deep red state tour that Trump is on? Like I did not expect five weeks out or whatever it is from the midterms.

3:09Trump to be going to Alabama and Oklahoma. I think we should just begin by saying it's so funny that Trump, if did a Trump wants to see the Texas Longhorns, he could have come to Texas, but he's going to get booed like Ted Cruz. So I think Trump looks at every problem and sees the solution as more Trump. So we seize his party, create a midterms. He's like, I got to get out there. And as party is trying to steer him into the least damaging place as possible, which are the quintessential swing states of Alabama and Oklahoma. And even in Alabama, I actually think he could cause them real problems because he's going to the Alabama 2, which is the district that is represented by a Democrat, Shamari figures, which is one of the majority minority districts that the Supreme Court struck down. This is a district that Trump won by 14 points, but 40% of the electorate in that district is black. And we've seen since post-Kaleigh huge turnout among black voters. So I think there's a very real chance that Trump could actually in trying to do no harm,

4:09could do real harm even in this very, very deeply red district. So, shout out, harm. Let's talk about the Senate race here in Texas. You guys heard about it. Senate Republican Super PAC is now committed to spending another $30 million against James Taylor Eko in the final weeks. And one Republican source told Punch Bowl today that they think they're going to hit 200 million all in by the time this race is over. And even though Dems, though, are getting outspent everywhere, they, here in Texas, they are taking James Taylor Eko's small, but persistent polling leads seriously. And last night, Thursday night, they launched a new Super PAC called Texas Forever. So, Cavalry's coming. Love it. Senate Republican PAC spent more than $20 million supporting John Cornon in the primary. Did not work.

5:09We even think that 200 million can rehabilitate a candidate like Paxton, who most voters here do know extremely well. Well, let's just ask people from Texas that question. How many ads would you have to see a change your mind about Ken Paxton? And is there enough time to run those ads before the heat death of the universe? How much would they have to pay you personally? So, there was a focus group, Kristen Soltz, Soltz, Anderson, around this focus group, Fred of the show. And she had 12, 2024 Trump voters who were either considering Taylor Eko or undecided. And she asked, what is the first word that comes to mind when you think of either candidate? And they were not totally sold on James Taylor Eko. But I just, these are the words that they said for Paxton. Cricket, criminal, crook, cricket, bad, immoral, disgusting, corrupt, morally corrupt, and womanizer.

6:10You know, they're on the fence. So you can do a lot of good with an ad campaign for a new restaurant. It does it work as well when everybody's been there and gotten food poisoning. I mean, I assume all the money is just going to go, it's going to be hard to prop up Paxton, but it's probably just going to be Taylor Eko attack at. I saw it speaking to Taylor Eko. I saw that right here on this stage, Thursday, he challenged Paxton to a debate on Fox News. No dice, no takers for that debate from Paxton. Taylor Eko did call Paxton's choice low T. Tommy, do you think there's any chance that Paxton takes the bait at some point, considering at least Fox News is friendly or territory? And if you're Taylor Eko, you're the Taylor Eko campaign, do you keep pushing this challenge, like maybe by going on Fox, or is that not the best use time?

7:11I think for them, there were a couple of pieces of the strategy. The first was, how do we get through this interview at the Texas Tribune Fest? And there's a couple of ways you can do it. You could come in knowing that there's a bunch of national press here, knowing that they're going to write up some headline about what you say, and you kind of white knuckle it in hope that the headlines are the best version of your response to attacks from Republicans about your record, or you walk up on stage with a bucket full of blood and you throw chum in the water, and that's exactly what they did here with this debate thing, saying like, I'm going to debate, compacts it, and we're going to do it on Fox News. It worked. Not that you're all fish or anything. No, the press are fish. And it works beautifully with the national press corps. Like that was the headline he got. And they followed up today with this video of Talleriko calling Paxton's number and leaving him a voicemail to invite him. And it was all very clever and I think well executed. I think bigger picture, when your opponent is like his whole message against you is that you're a wimp in your low T, and your rejoinder is like, all right, bitch, debate me on Fox News. Like it's a home game for you.

8:12That's a pretty good way to respond. And do I think it'll happen? Probably not. If it does, like I think Talleriko can hold his own, but we should just think. Well, but at the end of the day, like the end of the day, Fox News is Fox News. And they are an extension of the Maga Media Machine. And that is true for Brett Baer, who would host the debate. Because we all I think saw pictures of Brett and his lovely wife at the state dinner, at the White House two nights ago, right? Like he's very much, you know, people in DC treat some Fox News hosts like they are straight news men and women when in reality they're all sort of working for the same. Master, but I think it was a smart play. I think it's something he'll probably repeat. Talleriko will probably repeat, but I'm not sure it'll be like a focus, right? I'm skeptical that it'll happen. It's pretty extraordinary, right? Because Paxton needs the debate. Like he needs the help of a debate. The fact that they are so... That's if... If you... He performs the debate in a way that resembles a human. Well, if you trust it, right.

9:12Well, like if you just... If you believe that Paxton is a little bit behind Talleriko based on all the polls that we've been seeing over and over again, he's got to do something to change it. And the fact that he's so... He has so little confidence in his ability to win that kind of an argument that even from behind, usually the winning candidate, the candidate ahead is not the one demanding an opportunity to have a big stage in which they face the opponent. That's what a challenger does. I think he should go on. I think Talleriko should go on like Jesse Watershow and do the challenge there too. Then you get a... The Jesse Waters Challenge. Right, yeah. It's all about getting attention. You know what I mean? Like the throwing up the debate idea was a gambit to get attention. It worked. Going on Fox News will get you attention. I mean, it's always a debate. The version of the interview you're going to get on Fox News is likely to be combative. And maybe that's a good thing because your supporters like you. Like I watched the debate, the interview of Duel El Say I did with Jesse Waters and I kind of winced a bunch of times and I was like, I don't know about that. Then I went out to Detroit and he did a town hall and I saw people yelling to the stage,

10:14you whipped his ass up Duel, you know, so like people liked it. Do you think Talleriko wants the debate? I think so. I mean, if I had the opportunity to stand physically side by side with Ken Paxen and talk about my record, I would do it every day. Like about magging. It's like with the governor's race. It wasn't that long ago that national Democrats and media types were saying that Greg Abbott was a lock, not us though. We talked to Gina, you know, it was a long time ago. And now she's, yeah, we were ahead of the game there. It happens once in a while. Did we see the polls coming or did we change the polls? We don't know. Exactly. So Abbott's running scared now. And one way you can tell is he has completely changed his tune from wanting Texas to be a quote, epicenter of AI development a year ago. And now he's imposing data center moratorium or at least on new permits now that we're getting close to election day. Love it.

11:14What do you make of Abbott's data center pivot? And what do you think the guy who won his race by 11 points last time around is now in such a tight race this time? Yeah, so I think a lot of Republicans have been caught off guard by the backlash to data centers. I can see it being an especially tough issue for someone like Greg Abbott. The latest data is that the request for power for these new data centers in Texas would require five times as much power as is currently peak demand in Texas in a state that I mean, you all will tell me if I'm wrong. Have questions, concerns, lingering doubts about Greg Abbott's ability to manage the electric grid? The other... Sure. And the other part of this too is, so it's not just that people really don't like the idea of having a data center in their neighborhood, you think about the kind of people that are maybe older homeowners that might be really bothered by something like this. That's where Greg Abbott has won in the past.

12:14That's the one group where Paxton does okay. And an older homeowner is also the kind of person who shows up at a town meeting, fills out the form to provide their feedback, doesn't let something go, and might change their mind when, you know, Hosa is the one who came out for a moratorium first. I think Greg Abbott wants this to be a pivot. In reality, looking at what he's doing, he is saying that there is a pause. He is allowing a process to unfold that could allow him to have basically complete flexibility after the election in November to either return to the policy as it was, or paper over it with some sort of cosmetic changes and allow it to continue. So I think he's just trying to get through this without losing people for whom this could be a deciding issue. We should talk about Hosa's message. She is running an ad where a person who attended the January 6th rally says she's voting against Abbott because he's bought and paid for by the billionaires and the corporations. Woof, lost to J6er. Oh, they're famously impressionable buns.

13:16And she's running another ad pushing back on the two woke attacks with a page from the Republican script saying, my pronouns are mom, Texan, and soon to be governor. Good ad. Tommy, what do you think of how Inosha has positioned herself in her strategy in general? Sure. I was talking to a guy named Matt Angle earlier today who runs the Loan Star Project. He's a long-term Democratic candidate, some fans out there. He's in one of his rules for running successfully as a Democrat in Texas is don't get caught being a liberal. And I think Gina is ex-gating on that strategy. I think as much as we all loved Beto and were inspired by his campaign, I think he got a lot of national media attention. I think he became kind of like a national media darling. And seen as like the great hope of the Democratic party. And that probably heard him back here. And she's not going to make that mistake. Gina is a tougher race because Greg Abbott is not the most exciting candidate.

14:17He doesn't have a lot of risk, but he's got a lot of money and a good ground game that's sort of operating year round. So he's way tougher than Ken Paxton. And so her strategy is basically to win about 60% of the Latino vote to blow it out in the five big urban counties. And then to get like double digits with independence and then peel off as many kind of rural Republicans as she possibly can. And the two ways they're trying to do that is through issues. The first is education. So Abbott has a bunch of donors that are big charter school supporters. It's one of them is like Jeff Yoss. He's like TikTok CEO or something, right? He's a TikTok investor. And at the state of the other night, they just listed him on the... He's like, I would give it Trump to... I don't know. It's a safe TikTok. And so he just says, Jeff Yoss, TikTok. Okay, yeah. Great. So Jeff Yoss is one of them. And so, you know, he gives Abbott a bunch of money, surprise, surprise. All of a sudden, money is getting routed from public schools to charter schools.

15:17And that means that schools are closing in these communities. You've got 150 school districts in Texas. The kids are going four days a week. That's crazy to me. Crazy awesome. And then, you know, like obviously it's like infuriating for parents. But then also if you live in that community, like you're losing the culture, you're losing Friday night lights, football. You're the biggest employer in the areas shutting down in some cases. So that's an area where she's really targeting like, nagamoms who are pissed about this issue. And then the data center issue is another big opportunity. There's a group called Breaking Ranks or Break Ranks, which is a bunch of like, you know, rock-ribbed Republicans, conservatives in rural areas who are furious about data centers. And Gina has gone and met with them and heard them out and made all this really compelling content with them. And she's hoping to get some of those voters. Because if you can flip somebody, that's where two votes, as opposed to just turning someone else out. And so it's a tall order. I think someone told me today like,

16:19he thinks Gina's running dollar for dollar the best campaign in the state. He's just worried she's going to run out of dollars. Because you got to do a lot of things. You got to turn out a lot of voters in big media markets. You got to convince Latinos on the border you have to reach these rural voters. So it's tough. But, you know, she's running a smart campaign. I agree with that 100%. She is running one of the best campaigns. And they get not just into state, but in the country. And the reason that I like it so much is it's so often Democrats and red states run to lose by less than the person who ran before them. And she is being aggressive. She is taking bold stance. And she's getting out in front on issues like data centers, flock cameras. She's doing these ads like this. She's just being, she is playing to win. Because she knows that the only way that a Democrat is going to win the government in Texas is to run a very high variant strategy to take real risk and she's doing that. And that's like a model for what Democrats should be doing around the country in these races. We have in these places we haven't run governance races in a quarter century. So there are a lot of house races in play here as well.

17:19As you'll recall, Republicans famously kicked off the country's redistricting wars here in Texas last year. Because Donald Trump demanded more house Republican seats. Except now a bunch of the new districts that they drew to elect Republicans are competitive anyway. We'll be talking to Bobby Palito about his race against Monica De La Cruz in the 15th district. There's an open seat in the 35th around San Antonio where Democrat Johnny Garcia is running against Monica De La Cruz's brother Carlos in the 23rd. Katie Padea Stout is working to beat that absolute lunatic, a brand in her era. And we've got an emerging race in the 11th where our own vote save America recruit Claire Reynolds jumped into the race against August Flueger and has a really good shot. Dan, too early to tell of course, but how much of what we are seeing in the house races here is, and the shift towards Democrats is due to the national environment and how much do you think it's something specific

18:21changing about the views of Texas voters and different demographic groups of Texas? Obviously the biggest factor in Texas and where else is the fact that the Trump, the president is incredibly unpopular. He has launched an incredibly stupid war that everyone hates. It's raised gas prices above $4 a gallon and diesel above $7 a gallon and made interest rates at mortgage rates at 7%. Like that is everything that's driving everything. But the forces that are sort of causing the Republicans the possibly bottom out are magnified here in Texas because the two groups who Trump is losing the most ground with across the country have the greatest concentration in Texas, just Latino voters who have abandoned Trump in droves. We've seen that not just in polls, we've seen that in special election results here in Texas and it's working class white women. And so here you have Texas is a state where 30% of voting eligible population is Latino. We expect a quarter of the electorate to be Latino. That shift is going to cause huge, it's a huge problem for Republicans that

19:22you're not seeing in other states because here you have both a large working class white population and a large Latino population and that is sort of all the suburbanites and all those Trump loss those errors before these are the ones you're supposedly now. And so that's why Texas, this is a generation opportunity for Democrats to win Texas. Pots of America is brought to you by Willie's remedy tired of waking up hungover and bloated after your post work drink. Now you can have fun and relax without the regrets thanks to Willie's THC infused social tonic. Willie's is an alcohol alternative that actually works delivering an uplifting euphoric buzz. You can really feel with no negative side effects. Willie's is a premium THC infused social tonic crafted by the legendary Willie Nelson who is as we all know an expert in the cannabis space. Sure is, yeah. He's done his 10,000 hours for sure, maybe 20 with only 15 calories and just three grams of sugar.

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23:24Briscuit solar power plastic straws. There is much for us to learn but where Texas truly stands apart these days is in your main renewable resource. Shocking political scandals. And so it's time for a game we're calling two scandals in a lie remember the alibi. Here's how works I'm going to read my boys here three about three scandals two of which are real one of which we made up. You have to identify the lie. Here we go. First up a stole a $1,000 Montblanc pen from a security bin at a courthouse metal detector and was caught on video. Next beef said while purchasing ham for target practice was expensive it was still cheaper than a homeless person while firing a gun out of ham. Or see once gave a sermon at his own church in which he revealed his struggle to forgive Jesus for being Jewish.

24:24Oh my God. Which did we make up? I'm guessing B but it's believable. Is all above is not an option? No it is not these are sincere there's no tricks. Okay I kind of think it's the church one. I don't know. Hmm. And then decide the ham is just so specific. Well let's if you've been inside love it's brave recently. Let's go with the church. That's right that is when we made up the ham obviously pen can Paxton is the pen the ham was Brandon Herrera for Texas 23rd in a YouTube video. So we stole the ham to shoot at the ham? No no he purchased the ham. He bought the ham. He bought the ham shot the ham. Yeah shooting the ham was fine. It was the homeless person part. The shooting was the ham but sure. Next up call done to social media followers to vote in a poll asking whether Jews or Muslims are the bigger threat to America. B posted a late night video of himself railing against the perverted left recorded what was from very clearly inside a strip club.

25:27Or C said that a gunrages dummies empty head was full of much much like the average Austin feminist. Oh, you seem like they're all I think some of them are here. Like these are all Brendan Herrera right. Yeah it sounded like it the first one I know is right. I don't know what the next two. What do you think is it the strip club or is it the the mushy headed Austin feminist. I'm guessing he wasn't streaming from a strip club so I'll say that was fake. That's correct. Okay. Actually the poll between bigger threat Jews or Muslims was Texas railroad commissioner Canada bow French. I mixed those two up sometimes. And yes the Austin feminist comment was from Brandon Herrera. Next up oh bonus question. Bonus question Herrera filmed himself firing a gun at bottles of ranch dressing and after they exploded rubbing ranch dressing on himself and declaring that the ranch would make him irresistible to whom?

26:31Who would be irresistible to a ranch covered Brandon Herrera? The answer fat bitches. Don't I'm just reading it. Don't move ho that was a good yeah don't move vote. Next up use campaign donations to pay for his wife's hair extensions horse breeder and psychic visits. In a social media post asked if you believe heresist policies are better for Americans than Trump's policies you are. Is the poll ignorant a liar retarded or gay or see was impeached in part over twenty thousand dollars worth of kitchen countertops. Kitchen countertops corrupt kitchen countertops. I think that's right. Which is it? What do you think? I don't even remember what A was either.

27:31It was the donations for the psychic and you're right. It was both French with the poll and it was Ken Paxton who the House articles alleged that Austin real estate developer Nate Paul paid for those countertops. I bet they were fucking ugly too. Well French really loves doing these polls huh? This one's a get a get a vibe check on the people. And that's two scandals in a lie Cohen remember the alibi. Wow. All right well Texas isn't the only place freaking out Republicans right now. We are now a little over five weeks from election day and here's the latest headline from the best in the business forecasters. The most popular political report. GOP on track to lose house majority as fifteen race ratings shift toward Dems. That's today.

28:31There we go. Standing ovation for the Cook political report for those of you. Dave Wasserman fans here. Okay so they say that the most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats pick up anywhere from five to fifteen house seats. I wish even at the low end would mean no more speaker Mike Johnson. And it seems like this is where money really makes the difference at the end of a campaign like this where suddenly there's a bunch of seats potentially in play that neither side really thought we're going to be the most competitive districts. And if you are sitting at the D triple C right now or an affiliated super pack like how are you making decisions about where to invest in the final stretch knowing that you can't do everything. Yeah you can tell the Republicans know the house is gone because they've moved much of their money to districts that Trump won by ten to fifteen points.

29:33And the three districts that Trump won by fifteen points that they're investing in right here in Texas they're doing all across the country. And the goal here is not to preserve the majority it's to limit the size of the Democratic majority to make it easier for them to potentially get it back in twenty twenty eight or twenty thirty. So this is where having basically unlimited money matters because it allows our Republicans to play in a whole bunch of races to shore them up the Democrats cannot we do not have that money. So Democrats have to be incredibly disciplined about how to do it. And it's like we want to win as many seats as possible we want to send we want the largest majority possible losses to do the most stuff that also sends the most powerful message to the country the post Trump Republican party to the CEO's law firms media companies who have cow tal to Trump that politics has changed in America. But you he came Jeffries is speaker whether we have a one seat majority or a fifty seat majority. And so you have to be very disciplined how you spend your money. And if I was there the way I would think about it is I think you can assume that given this political environment Democrats will win all nine seats that Kamala Harris won.

30:37They currently have Republicans. And some of those are we're already going by a lot because of the seats in California that Gavin Newsom redistricted. And then issue thing that we're going to place your bets in other races around the country like you're not there's a. There's a number of seats that is 11 that are in districts that Trump won by less than five points and some of those are being won by like point one percent like in or point 0.2% like in Virginia. To or Virginia want to remember which. And so where I would place my bets is I would look very heavily at districts. Of the following kind one with large Latino populations this is where there's the greatest possible swing in the electorate so I would look very obviously invest a lot here in Texas but also in Florida. Because prior up until a few weeks ago you'd seen this real split between how the Latino vote around the country was performing in house performing in Florida. But that is change of basically since gas prices want to be even higher and so now the districts like Florida 27 and Florida 13 that were thought to be likely Republican that are now very well with the same way that's far 27 is Mary of Ira Maria of iris alz are who ran the ad attacking Trump over immigration.

31:40Then I would look at some of these districts in the south that have large black populations because I really do think one of the driving things here is going to be a huge surge in black turnout as a response to the Supreme Court just eliminating like potentially a third of the Congressional black caucus. I really want to I really think that this is counterintuitive but I think you're going to make some real ground in rural districts like North Carolina to where they are it is rural areas which is why Iowa's on the map Ohio's on the map this time and frankly what Texas is on the map is that the rural parts of this country that have been the most pro Trump have been hammered the most by the trade wars tariffs the agricultural policy were Trump's response to high beef prices was to import beef from Argentina which tends to make American ranchers that particularly happy and then diesel right the across if you like the agriculture economy runs on diesel and seven dollar diesel is crushing these people so I think there's some real opportunities in some district this is why we have a couple districts in Iowa there in play it's just kind of like just imagine happens you got to just pick your opportunities because we can't play everywhere because we have so little compare money compared to the Republicans.

32:41I think those spending restraints compared the opportunity or why you're starting to hear some you know sort of operatives and candidates like voicing concern and frustration that some of the traditional like big big donors the Democratic Party are not viewing this as the generational opportunity that it could be because I was talking to someone today who was like let me paint for you the like extreme optimistic picture which is Democrats are not only winning on the generic ballot but if you look at the top like most salient issues we are crushing in those areas as well which was not the case in 2024 right when Republicans made immigration really salient Democrats reviewed as on the wrong side of it and we were getting hammered then there's Latino vote element that you talked about and then if you look at the special and off your elections and the Democratic over performance it's like 14 points on average as compared to 2024 and it's held and that over performance is better than 17 and 18 and so in a scenario where the results on election day look more like the over performance in those

33:46specials which we all stipulate is a different electorate and they're weird and whatever but if it does it is like truly a historic opportunity to win statewide races congressional races down ballot up and down and it just feels like a moment when all the biggest donors in the party should be pushing all their chips in the table as aggressively as possible and not holding back for I don't know what reason Trump bothering them. I think there has been a huge shift in the funding approach in the donor in the large donor community since 2024 part of it is people still angry about how that election went into them like they were $1 billion on fire in that election which is fair quibble in some ways and then and then there's that there are a lot of people who are very afraid of being targeted by Trump like just that your business is going to be targeted you're going to have all of a sudden you're going to the FDI is going to show up at your door you're going to have regulatory scrutiny you wouldn't have before and so that has limited money you're exactly right time because the there is the average pulling error on the generic ballot in a house races about three points and there's a very real possibility is three points in the right direction where you're looking at one of the largest swings in American history something where

34:59Democrats could pick up races we've never been with the possible that we've been using 2006 as like the most relevant example of an election because it's it's you know it's a unpopular president unpopular war all of that but it very well could be a little more like 94 where everything changes where it's a real lining election in the other I mean you were saying earlier that you know if if he's a speaker he's speaker and it doesn't matter if there's like another 10 15 20 seats Trump still president but the important thing is to not just look at what this means for the next two years but to look at 28 and beyond because if this is an opportunity to win a bunch of house seats the Democrats couldn't win in a normal year because the environment so bad for a public and then and we pick up a whole bunch of seats and then when the presidency and president the presidency in 2028 then that's going to make it more likely for that Democratic president to actually be able to pass a real agenda through Congress because we got all these seats in 2026 knowing that you know in 2032 then you have a typical midterm year that like the party and power lose the seats and so you're just you're building up more seats now so I have to mention the possible you know the possibility of picking up Senate seats in places that in more typical year we have no chance of getting right like all that the the duma version of this shift right is

36:14there is this shift in places that have been hurt the most right in place like Iowa Kansas people are talking about Nebraska right but if we almost win those places while kind of doing as well as 2006 and a bunch of other places we don't get extra credit at the end for having not picked up those seats in this one one moment where we have the chance that the Senate matters a bit more because you get it for six years you get to live through when the way way proceeds so yeah the Paz America is brought to by quince you know those pieces in your closet that end up in heavy rotation the sweater that goes with everything the perfect pair of pants or the t-shirt you throw on without giving it a second thought those are the pieces that make getting dressed easy and that's what quince does best quince focuses on high quality wardrobe staples made with premium materials like 100% Mongolian cashmere organic cotton and marino wool the styles are timeless versatile and designed to become the dependable pieces you reach for day after day they're 100% Mongolian cashmere sweaters start at just $60 giving you the softness and quality you'd expect from a luxury brand without the luxury price tag everything at quince is

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38:31only at my dollars price and participation may vary promotion pricing may be lower than me pricing I'm Nate silver I'm gaelin drooke and I'm clear malone we're back this time with our friends at crooked media for a new show called still counting yeah numbers are hard take ser easy and frankly numbers have only gotten harder what does the data actually site how do we reconcile that with the other things that we're seeing in American politics and around the world and how do you set the to understand or maybe even dare to predict the future of American politics new episodes every Wednesday starting September 9th subscribe to still counting on youtube dot com slash at still counting podcast or wherever you get your podcast and I'm just gonna be a little bit more about the campaign committee's asking donors just just recently for nine million dollars in emergency money to defend Alaska Iowa Ohio cook also moved Kansas where J.D. Vance was sent to campaign to from likely Republican to lean Republican send him three more times

39:48Carolina they moved from solid Republican to likely Republican Republican senator John Kennedy who's been campaigning in Iowa and Nebraska told Reuters that six months ago he never imagined he'd be spending his time campaigning in states like these because they should be quote fat guy lay ups does anyone know of that me so that was my question when you don't jump yeah you have a good job you just you kind of just lay it in you don't have a big vertical leap because of your heaviness is that make it easy right no it's the question tall like supposed to be easy is what is saying yeah and a fact I doing a lay up is not necessarily easy this is what that was my yeah my question you know what I don't know anyway um now Tommy dinner and I talked about this on yesterday's show but uh you know the New York Times polls show Susan Collins I had three points in main Democrats in Michigan and New Hampshire are ahead but still underperforming the generic and how do you reconcile those two pictures of the senate map where Cook is moving all these red state races towards Democrats but then we saw those polls yeah we got the the fact I lay ups end of duel us the dunk what I like about John Kennedy is he had to get degrees from Vanderbilt UVA and Oxford to sound that folksy you know that about him yeah

41:07look at old old videos of John Kennedy are amazing because it wasn't his voice yeah no he really learned the folksy thing later he's like he's just a really smart guy yeah and I was like I'm you're Samity Sam exact thing um I think you know the this the states that came out the concerning polling where let's take let's start with main and New Hampshire main like Susan Collins is overperformed in a bunch of elections she may very well do so again she's a known quantity there she drives us crazy but they like her um also main and New Hampshire like Dan talked about this historic swing of Latino voters that were seeing nationwide and the showing up in these polls in New Hampshire like two of the whitest states in the nation literally so you're just not going to see that demographic shift showing up there old to old to and then you know Michigan I think is a little more complicated a story you've got um Abdul say I'd emerging from a primary where $70 million worth of attack ads were dumped on his head in that obviously left a mark um you have got a candidate in a duel who is pretty progressive and a state that is in recent years been more purple or swingy and maybe there's a big

42:15way out of a penalty there although you also see a dual winning on issues like Medicare for all like 60 percent majority support Medicare for all and then just old school Islamophobia could be a piece of it um you guys I'm sure we're forced to endure the midterm mini convention here in Dallas um their entire focus when they talked about a duel was basically blame him for 9-11 and you know he was a being a terrorist so it's just gross he was 14 I think you know we had a lot of fun and we had a lot of fun and you know he's just a few years later I'm sure you've got a lot of fun and you know he's just a little bit more like a little more like a little bit of a little bit of a penalty and you know he's just a little bit more fun and then just a little bit of a while I think you're not going to get a little bit more than you know he's just a little bit of a little bit more than you can see I think he's a little bit more than you know he's just a Yeah, you're literally 16 years old. And so we'll see if those things add up to significant headwinds for him on election day, or if maybe it's temporary, maybe it's gone, but I think those are the factors. One update on another Senate story from this week. So the reaction to the New York Times story about Mary Peltola's alleged poor treatment of her staff, offensive language, forced chameleon feeding. It's not like a weird euphemism, like feeding her pet chameleon.

43:17The crickets feed the crickets to the chameleon. Anyway, the reaction has been considerably less pearl clutchy from Democrats than you might have expected even a couple years ago. Here's a good example from Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego when he was asked about this. Also a combat veteran. And he said, quote, when I was 25, I had a really bad boss. He made me run across an open fucking field of raking machine gunfire to breach a door. That's great. Meanwhile, Peltola's opponent for Public and Senator Dan Sullivan called the allegations very disturbing a character issue and the Republican campaign committee called her dangerous and unhinged. Love it. How about those fucking snowflakes, huh? What do you make of the muted reaction? Like signs of growth, just desperate to win, a little bit of both? Yeah, sure. Look, I think there was a moment where, especially when people were in their homes,

44:17and there was a lot of toxic online culture, people were afraid to say what they thought, which is like, do I think it's great if a boss calls an employee a fucking no, but I think the Senate's more important. But now we're like, no, the stakes are too high. And we've just been through too many rounds of this. And the fact that there are people that would be working for a Democratic member of Congress who may have been rude and mean at the darkest moment in her life, by the way, like after experiencing incredible tragedy, and then six weeks before an election to leak that to the times, like it's not a privilege to pretend you don't have to think about the stakes. Everybody has to think about the stakes. And whether or not Donald Trump can appoint right-wing anti-choice judges for two years, whether or not we have genuine investigations in the Senate, like these are the stakes in the election. And there's not a gay guy from Austin to underneath the docks in Provincetown who wouldn't be happily called a fucking guzzling f***ing. To have a Democratic Senate, just a mincing but-munching

45:22ass pirate. And if we have to get Mary Peltola, honestly, we could knight her. Go to find the gayest fucking person you can find in the state of Alaska. Have her kneel and have a sword go to both sides and say, you may call us wherever the f*** you want, Mary Peltola, if you win this seat. Yeah! Yeah! Anyway, if you're listening, Mary Peltola, come on Potsy of America. That's my face. That'll help. I don't help in the home stride. Oh, you have to feed her lizard. And you're a mad, then quit or shut up. It's also just like, if it was a dog, no one would have said anything. It's just because it was a commune in and they- I hate lizzards growing up. It's not hard. You give them like a one-cricket a week. Fine. What kind of lizzards did you have, Tommy? A bunch, man. What were they called? No, they weren't really commune. Anyway, they were cool. Let them go on the yard. They just range for a summer and then you know, probably- Later, Ryan subscribers will get a chance

46:23to hear about Tommy's lizards. Yes, that's the subscriber benefit. Krugga.com slash print. You can't believe Mary Peltola won't come on, Potsy of America. Yeah, that's shocking. Be seeing love at fish with her soon. Finally, before we bring Bobby Palito on, in case you were all wondering what critical issues, the world's two biggest superpowers and competitors focused on during Chinese president she's visit to Washington. The answer is Donald Trump's home renovations. Trump gave she a personal tour of his brand new White House he had a telepad and then told reporters that she has a quote, great interest in granite, loves granite. Then at the state dinner, Trump went off scripts to invite she and the entire room, the entire dinner, to after dinner was over, walk behind the curtain and become quote, the first people to step foot on the ballroom construction site. Very exciting.

47:23Which we learned this week from the Washington Post was not originally designed with sufficient emergency exits and fire containment measures. But when the original architect pointed out that the ballroom wouldn't meet building codes, Trump reportedly said, I am the code. That's real. Tommy, a lot of places we could go with this. What do you think she thinks of Donald Trump? He thinks he's a clown. The whole thing was so embarrassing. Usually a bilateral meeting between two great superpowers has a purpose or an outcome that you're preparing to get to. This one was a joke. They continued to punt the trade war. They didn't really figure out anything real about artificial intelligence. Super intelligence. Super intelligence. That's right now. Trump tried to curry favor with all this protocol on pomp and circumstances to include meeting him at the airport,

48:26which Chinese are big on protocol. And I can assure you that that made them think that Trump looked like subservience. I don't go to LAX to pick up my wife. No one. I bet that's it. Don Jr.'s like, oh, you're going to pick up Xi at the airport. Cool. Yeah. For sure. No. But all those years, you picked me up from camp, dad. The one time Obama met someone at the airport was the pope and he reports to a higher power, as we all know. So it kind of made sense in that context. The whole meeting was a joke. Trump looks like an absolute clown in front of Xi. She's got him over a barrel with rare earths and all these trade issues. And so the whole thing was just stupid. He's got a thing for a commies. He does. She made fun of Biden. He's got a money. He says. Let's just Trump's kink. All right. When we come back, we'll be talking to Texas Democratic House candidate Bobby Polito. This podcast is sponsored by Squarespace.

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50:30slash crooked to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain, that squarespace.com slash crooked. Your sausage my muffin with egg didn't change. You're receipted. The sausage my muffin with egg extra value meal includes a hash brown and a small coffee. But just $5. Only $5 for a limited time. Pricing participation may vary. Promotion pricing may be lower than meal pricing. I'm Nate Silver. I'm Galen Drook. And I'm Claire Malone. We're back. This time with our friends at crooked media for a new show called Still Counting. Yeah, numbers are hard. Take ser easy. And frankly, numbers have only gotten harder. What does the data actually say? How do we reconcile that with the other things that we're seeing in American politics and around the world? And how do we use that to understand or maybe even dare to predict the future of American politics? New episodes every Wednesday starting September 9th. Subscribe to Still Counting on youtube.com slash at Still Counting Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts.

51:33Mm. He's running against a Trump bank Republican in Texas. This is 15th district. And one of those competitive races in the country could control, could determine control of the house. He's also won a couple of Latin Grammys. Please welcome Bobby Polita. CHEERING AND APPLAUSE All right, good to see you. Thank you for being here. Sorry, the Catholic came out in me. Yeah. Oh, I know. And would be. I'm Jewish too. We're fine. Congratulations. Totally fine. So Trump won handily in this district in 2024. But something is changing. Your race is one of the races, I believe, that got moved to the toss-up category. Yes. And your opponent in a recent leaked audio set of a poll,

52:39oh, sweet Lord Jesus, that's not good. What are you hearing from voters about why people who may have voted for Trump are sort of turning away from him and his allies? OK, there's two questions there. That part where she said that was really early in the year. It's gotten a lot worse since then. But I'll tell you, people don't like it light to. How about a novel idea there, right? They said there was going to be no new wars. And now when they put gas and diesel now, that's $6 a gallon, they're reminded that they got lied to. Still waiting for a health care plan since 2017. It's been one lie after the other, really. The only thing that he can probably hang his hide is that the border is secure. But now there's no chaos on the border. It's chaos in the streets. And there's people really living in fear down there. The Rio Grande Valley is 94% Hispanic.

53:43And now that they are allowed them to racial profile, based on race or language, imagine what that does to a community. Any community I don't care which one that's living in fear cannot function properly. And people are really angry. You got to understand a lot of these voters were voting Republican because of Chamber of Commerce Republicans, lower tax cuts. They're finding out right now that those policies are actually bad for business. And that's the biggest break that I've seen. I think people right now, both parties are not popular. Because if nobody represents the people, and we ran with a platform based on, I'm not here for the party, I'm here for you. And does that mean that I don't think people fit into the heterodoxy of either party, especially Hispanics? So speaking of what's been happening with ICE, so your opponent was originally very supportive of the

54:44Trump immigration crackdown, back cuts to Medicaid, back the huge increase in funding for ICE and detention centers. She's now running ads about getting someone out of detention. The detention she voted to increase by billions and billions of times. It's amazing what happens when they think they're going to lose. Right. What was your reaction to that? What is your response to her claim that she's sort of been looking out for people that have been grabbed by ICE? Oh gosh, it's completely disingenuous. I mean, everything started right after I won the primary. There was a group of mariachi and a couple of kids that had gone, she took them to Washington to go play for her. And she was actually showing a selfie look. I'm here with mariachi kids. And then they got detained. And they asked her to go help them. And she said there's nothing that she could do. So on a Saturday, I called her out for her hypocrisy.

55:45I showed the video. And by Monday, she hauled out, I'm not lying, a big podium out at the detention center and pulled one of them out like as if she was walking Castro. I would have never thought if you had told me in 2024 that a Republican would be out there saying, look what I'm doing for the immigrants. I would have told you, you're crazy. But she absolutely wants to have it both ways. And you can't. Now we're going to play a game in a moment. One last question, which is you've talked about as people feeling dissatisfied with both parties. One of the challenges it seems is you're dealing with a caricature people might have of somebody running as a Democrat. First of all, what does that feel like to you? And what are the questions you get about that? And then how do you go against that? Just honest. I mean, there is a caricature. But you know, you got to understand, they jerrymandered the district so much that for a long time, the Democrats would not go campaign in these rural areas because they

56:47could win it with a vote in the RGB, in the Rio Grande Valley. So we were kind of negligent in not going showing up. I'm not making that same mistake. We've gone to every single county, the Reddest counties. Counties that don't have a Democratic party. And the people need to trust you. And you can't show up with three months or with a commercial to earn their vote. And the polling shows that it's been working because we're actually showing up. And I think that's a secret. That's a secret sauce is we got to get out there. It's a lot of work. We're not going to win an election based on commercials or mailers. Well, it doesn't hurt that you played concerts in a lot of cases. Well, before you were ever in politics, that must be nice. Look, that's the foot in the door, but it doesn't close it. I mean, it absolutely, there's a lot of people that want to know, like, are you, you know, this scary Democrat that we keep hearing about? And you've got to show them that I just want you to have affordable health care. I want people to be able to live their life without fear.

57:51And once they hear that, they're like, well, I agree with that. So do I. And so it's not that hard to be honest with you. The one thing I don't do is I don't go shame on for how they voted. We don't talk about the past. We're looking at the future. And we're running that kind of race, you know? We're running against somebody that's really trying to the same old smear tactics. They call me a Kinssen Yeda singer, right? Like on primary night and like trying to be like Trump. And we got invited to over 1,000 Kinssen Yeda's in one day. And no, I'm serious. Like we've had 5,000 invites since. And we've done 75 of them. That's amazing. That's amazing. Yeah. And we actually send them, you know, we ask. We have one ask. Can we have volunteers here to sign people up? And they go, yeah, that's our grassroots move. That's awesome. Nice. Well, you've graciously agreed to stick around for a game.

58:53Austin, bring out the game hat. Oh. Oh, nice. So Texas, we love it here. And even though there are some interlopers who are trying to turn Austin into the God for Sakin, love child of Nashville and San Francisco, you said it. I didn't know. I was just kidding. It still rules. I got a giant plate of brisket last night. And they just threw some extra on there for fun. And maybe because there were some sadness in my eyes because Tommy didn't come with me. And even though I was stuffed, I got a dipped cone on my way back. And then I died. And then I saw Mitch McConnell, and now I'm here. For a game we're calling, Choosing Texas or Cowboy Up. Here's how it works. We have questions in this hat for Bobby Polito. Each of us will reach in and grab a question. They're either oars, and it's rapid fire. You just got to go with your gut. Are you ready?

59:53I'm ready. John, you want to kick it off? Sure. Try to get through as many as we can. Beef brisket or pork ribs? Brisket. Same for me. Tear down the Trump ballroom or leave it up and host a massive record-breaking Kinssen era there in 2029. What? Are we going to tear down the Trump ballroom or leave it up and you'll host a Kinssen era there during the day? Tear that mother down. OK. Yes. California or New York? Oh. Oh. I hate you. New York. Yes. If you hated him, you're going to. If you hated him, you're going to hate me. Greg Abbott or Beau French? LAUGHTER What? Oh my god. It's a Maryfuck-Killow. It's like Gunner Rear as syphilis, right? That's a good answer. Uh, Bajo Sexto or Tololoce? Ooh! Bajo Sexto. All right.

1:00:54Yeah. That's a good one. JD Vance or Marco Rubio? Oh. LAUGHTER Neither. But Marco Rubio, if I had to pick. Yeah. OK. Aggies are long horns. LAUGHTER LAUGHTER I have a UT son right now. Hook them horns, man. That's right. LAUGHTER Yeah. All right. That was easy. Houston, or Dallas? I'm a Houston Texan fan. CHEERING Uh, Texas Sheetcake or Pecan Pie? I don't even know what the first one, what, what was that? Texas Sheetcake? Never heard of that. I haven't either. I'm from the Valley. Excuse me, man. Um... What did you guys think? Did you say cheesecake or sheetcake? Sheetcake. Sheetcake. I've never heard of that. Yeah. Pecan Pie. Pecan Pie. What do you guys think? It's a little hot. People want the sheetcake answer. Can Paxton or Beau French?

1:01:56They're different. William and, like, shit, like... Uh. Like, gosh. No, man. That's... Paxton, right? Yeah. I mean... Over Beau French? Yeah, over French. That's a tough choice. Yeah, that's a tough choice. Uh, Dan or someone named John? That's not... I wrote this and that is not what it said. I said... I punched you up. Dan or Tommy, go with your gut. Tommy, you were the first one to interview me on Pudges. Oh, there we go. Oh, yeah. Fair enough. Grammys or Latin Grammys? Oh, gosh. Oh, gosh. I have two Latin Grammys. I don't have a Grammy. Grammy. There you go. Oh, wow. All right. Last one. Ted Cruz Beard or Ted Cruz No Beard? Ha. Ha. Ha. Ha.

1:02:56Ha. Ha. Oh, no. This is... And that was the last we ever saw of Bobby Polito. Okay. He was like, that's it. I'm going back to music. You're asking me about fat Wolverine. Sorry, man. No, no. Beard. Yeah. Beard, right? I think the last of Ted Cruz's face, you see the better. Yeah, that's good. All right. Where can people go to swear your campaign before we wrap this up? Bobby Polito for Texas. And, you know, we're down to stretch. We definitely, you know, they have more money than we do and we need to compete. So, you know, we'd be really gracious if people could go in there donate. Thank you so much. Oh, no, go. And that's our game. Thank you to Bobby Polito for joining us. Thank you all for joining us. And that's our show. We'll see you all later. Puzzle America is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Ferris Safari, with Reed Charlene, Elijah Cohn, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Heffko, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, David Tolls,

1:03:56Mia Kalman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is probably unionized with the writer's guild of America East. I'm Nate Silver. I'm Galen Drook. And I'm Claire Malone. We're back. This time with our friends at Crooked Media for a new show called Still Counting. Yeah, numbers are hard. Take ser easy. And frankly, numbers have only gotten harder. What does the data actually say? How do we reconcile that with the other things that we're seeing in American politics? I'm not sure. I'm not sure. I'm not sure. I'm not sure. I'm not sure. I'm not sure. I'm not sure. I'm not sure. I'm not sure. Things that we're seeing in American politics and around the world. And how do you set the data to understand or maybe even dare to predict the future of American politics? New episodes every Wednesday starting September 9th. Subscribe to Still Counting on youtube.com slash at Still Counting Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. When you fill up a 76, you're ready to go. To that music festival, you see posted about each year, but it's never been to. And you're ready to go?

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