College Football Betting Preview | Week 4

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2:05All right here we go. 15 20 25 30 35 40 25 50 and the kick is blocked. The college football world started. Oh my goodness he stumbled and fumbled the lateral to require on the end of getting you the lead. They're not gonna keep them off the field at night. Holy cow. It's not the size of the dog in the fight. It's the size of the fight in the north. What's up the generation? Welcome to the Big Vets on campus podcast presented by Draft Kings. This is the week four college football betting preview. I'm stucky joining me as always. My fellow BBOC co-host Colin Wilson. Oh baby what a slate. I cannot wait for this

3:08Saturday. Start to finish. Furious action. Great matchups. Top 25 matchups. Playoff implications all over the place and of course we'll have a full loaded card to bet as we do every Saturday. These are the Saturdays that you think about in the summer when you're in the dog days getting in the weeds of the Mac, previewing the sunbelt adjusting numbers. The dog days of baseball and you are like man I want a college football Saturday. This is what you think about. What's going on brother? And you get a Washington Minnesota game at 10 o'clock at night. I was looking to see what the Hawaii game was but instead we get blessed with a PJ Fleck and Jen fish game. And rice. Our owls are on late night too against president. What is nothing better than that? You have walled wall action. We're going to get to four marquee games then like a bunch of others in the

4:09rundown. We'll get to a bunch of trash. We'll get to the marquee game of the day Arkansas Tulsa. My ex-wife is Tulsa grad and so she has decided to come over and join my sons at the game which like maybe I want to watch the game with my sons against Tulsa but no because Arkansas is down we got to come over and party and rub it in my face. All right it's a big game. It's a big game in the Wilson House. We'll get to the death penalty later on in the show. It's a good weekend for the podcast last week but that is in the past. It's time to find some winners for this week. Let's get right into it. So let's start with our marquee games of the week. It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out the marquee matchups. We'll all end up betting for week four. All right so we got four of them. Let's start with one of the most talked about games on social media

5:16that I've seen in quite some time. Not LSU. Ole Miss was talking about a lot. Well Ole Miss Florida has been talked about quite a bit because Florida ranked 21st is a three and a half point favorite at home of Ole Miss total 59 and a half. I bet Florida I needed under three even who is juiced. So I bet I got a two and a half minus one 20. There is so people are like oh this is a trap line. This is like there's no that's not what this is right so I'll tell you what I make this line. I now have Florida as a top 10 team in the country. Now part of that there's not that much separation between like seven and like 15 right there's like a clear top five six and then there's like you know a field load of four point drop off and then you're only talking a couple points. But a lot of those teams in the 10 to 15 range have fallen off right like A&M, Texas, Tac, Oklahoma. A lot of these teams have dropped and Florida has risen. So I only have Ole Miss

6:21favored on a neutral by about between one and one and a half points over Florida. I have home field advantage different for different spots but Florida is one of my biggest ones ranked matchup. I have their home field worth about four points. So four minus one and a half we're at around two I'm at around like two six and then I can bump this about a point for the spot because it's one of the best spots in the entire season right Ole Miss just played a game that's been hyped up for an entire year. Also their star running back Qon Lacey might not go. He will be missed if he can't play or isn't 100% healthy especially his explosives. And yeah like so I'm at I get to about 3.6 so under three I'm taking it when there's some other intangibles that I like. Florida has looked incredible. Don't be fooled by that box score last week against Auburn. They were with

7:24halfway through the fourth quarter they were out gaining Auburn with this brand new team. Fathers first rose star one of the toughest places but they're out gaining Auburn 475 to 220 right then Auburn put together a couple 80 yard drives and then scored like a 30 yard touchdown on fourth down on the glass play the game. So you might see 39 points. Florida's defense dominated that game especially early. I love this defensive line. And look on the offense aside of the ball their offensive line is playing well. They arguably have a top three group of skill position players in the sport. Jaden ball leads the way their receivers are incredible and guess who's calling the shots it's Buster Faulkner. For my money the best offensive coordinator in the game. Defensively they're gonna take away explosive plays make Trinidad drive the field and then they're I think their defensive line can make enough negative plays but I think we'll miss it's just natural they're gonna come out flat here their defense hasn't been great especially against the run and it's not only just the LSU game a cup they've also played a 40 minute effort against Louisville right and

8:28don't forget that without Louisville shitting down their leg on special teams Louisville wins that game. So he has a neutral feel like I look I am I'm claiming and I will eat crowd you can call in the voicemails if I'm wrong I am claiming to be the Ole Miss Whisperer. I had Louisville in the opener. I had Charlotte against Ole Miss and then I had Ole Miss big last week against LSU. Now I'm on Florida I think that they're gonna come out establish the run be able to run it set up the play action and then get ahead of Trinidad and look do I like betting on Trinidad? No do I think he's gonna success? Yes he's gonna put up points here the total 60 but I think Florida gets this done the other intangible factor here is John Summeral has prepped for one of the best coaches in the country in my opinion has prepped for this Ole Miss team twice now three times in the last year he faced him twice last year now obviously it didn't go well because he had two lanes roster

9:30but now he has Florida's roster but like he got to play them twice prepped for them twice right and and it doesn't really work the other way around because this is for Ole Miss and Florida because it's a whole different roster it's Faulkner's All Fans right it's a whole different so Summeral I think you can bump maybe another half point for Florida here so Ole Miss I love Trinidad if I needed one quarterback tomorrow to go to battle with the win-of-game in college football I'm taking Trinidad I love him he's gonna make Florida work for it I know that but I'm taking the gators I think they get it done it's the spot of the year and if this was if this was like four I wouldn't play it but and judging by the market just to give a little insight this is this was bought up early from like sharp money from two and a half up to three it'll touch and it's like three and a half now there's going to be so much public support that it probably can't go higher but I think that this probably should be it like four given the spot the injuries everything else and for what it's worth John Summeral has a favorite

10:3625-12 and one against the spread as a single digit favorite 15-4 and one covering by about eight points per game the only other coach that's who've been more profitable in college football history in that spot willy fritz the old two-lane lineage give me Florida here I know it looks crazy but the posters don't know yet this is the top 10 matchup give me the gators chop chop I got seven texts on Sunday night for putting in a Florida bet as a matter of fact I don't put many two units bets everything I bet is flat betting one one unit I put in two units on this game on Sunday night and I got seven texts how can you think Florida's better than Ole Miss there's no way then Summeral hits is the summer all hits is press erities all like we're the favorite we're the favorite who made us the favorite who out there is making us like this guy's press conferences are pretty hilarious like come on bro I mean consider your coaching where Steve Spurrier was I kind of want to want to want to want to up you here how about can I entertain you

11:37and a Florida plus 205 to make the college football playoff yeah what games do we have after this okay fine maybe we lose Texas just want to do the whole schedule or was it Texas in Georgia I think we're the two I'm like fine I'll give you those losses I think it comes down to Oklahoma right there is a very strong case that this is a 10 win team let's focus just on Florida also has a chance with three losses with this schedule and if they beat Ole Miss if you want I don't know if we ever put playoff bets on the board I'm gonna put in the app and I'm gonna bet it um because I have a lot of tape bandy fit hockey Oklahoma at home that's the Florida at Texas yep uh and I mean but like Texas has issues the the the game I'm worried about the most is just the spot at Missouri next week stop okay stop we'll get I mean they're gonna be like a three point favorite as far as it's we'll get to Missouri as far as this game is concerned

12:44like I can understand why everybody loves Ole Miss because Trinidad you know has stated his case for the Heisman state is case for being the best quarterback in college football and I don't disagree um you know in Oklahoma and Ole Miss's defense really surprised me I mean I took it on the chin betting wise last week I mean Ole Miss's defense limited LSU to just 27% success rate and passing down it's like they they dominated LSU when when LSU needed the passing the most um there's still a tackling issue there uh for Pete Golding and his defense uh they missed 18 against LSU that's 53 total that they missed this season so that's a problem for them Florida allowed Auburn to close the gap at the end of the game but the defense stepped up like you said I wouldn't put too much into that even though it closed one possession really they were kind of in firm control the entire time and then on the defense I mean for Florida you've got to look at Edge Manuel and linebacker Jaden was they combined for 11 pressures that's going to happen again this week Florida's defense is now top 10 in havoc and that's all Brad White the coordinator I mean you and I talked about it last week on the pot I mean that is a guy that you're consistently going to get top 10

13:48havoc defenses and then Buster Falkner is a name but we've dropped on this podcast for years uh I mean if you don't think that the coaching isn't top notch A plus they're already third in the middle late right I mean they got to get their penalties cleared up I think they're like 131st penalties right now but that is player execution that is also Brad White aggressiveness uh they can cause some of the Jordan hair they got your job done a lot of those calls list I agree I agree I agree and then what Jaden Baw is doing right now from a running perspective like I'm not just making a case that they're going to be full miss they're going to be a little miss I don't think the three matters I don't think anybody should worry about it just take the three drink the juice whatever Jaden Baw has been so good last last week 162 yards three TDs against Auburn he's now at eight TDs on the season with just 55 carries he's forced 30 mistakels I mean I thought he just used to be a red zone tank in previous years for Billy and Apera but now I mean 4.6 yards after first contact this kid's got elusiveness he can bulldoze you over he's forcing mistakels this is a very very

14:53impressive Florida team right now in every way and the coaching staff is elite a plus we've always talked about how good they all are um and the home field is elite the spot is elite oh we're gonna be here on top petty after the third quarter and I'm telling you right now I think Florida at our sponsor draft Kings is plus 205 to make the playoff let's put it on there it's going in the app after the show that we're now a gators podcast job job and you know what are we exactly sure they're gonna lose to Texas we're about to talk about it are we sure they're gonna go on the road and lose to Texas well let's let's talk about that game Texas we'll take on Tennessee in Knoxville noon kick this line has been all over the place I thought originally it was you getting a little manipulated for Texas money and maybe it was but then there's been some buyback on Tennessee it's gone from the three and I have to four to five and if now it's sitting at Texas a

15:58four point favorite total 55 and a half I saw that you bet Tennessee maybe you could convince me to do the same my god watching these teams my god says Tennessee is winning this game yep uh just what I've seen with Texas they have issues on defense right like Texas had one good quarter against Ohio State but they needed like nine different plays to go right for Ohio State not to win that game yeah and they need like in Ryan Day turtle arch has not taken the next step I mean you struggling against the UTSA defense last week completing 50% of his passes the offensive line has issues smothers is banged up who's such a key part to their offense and their defense I think has issues on the back end but there's so many and look Florida and Sarkin general has been horrific at Texas on the road against the spread I think 30% I mean look no further than last year they should have lost they can talk you they should have lost the Mississippi State yeah Arkansas blew him out one

17:01yeah they got crushed my Florida last year so that was an issue last year and it's been an issue for Sark but there's a lot of other factors here so number one you have gymnols as the defensive coordinator for Tennessee it's looked good so far but it's a defense that's usually complex and it takes some time and the defensive line looks good but like that played anybody let's be honest to play canisol who's horrendous an SCS team and then they played Georgia Tech who looks really bad and down so like I don't know how much I can take from it I don't know what knolls is going to do here how aggressive he's going to be he does have a lot of experience going up against Sark he's one two and I'll head to head against Texas he beat him with Oklahoma State and he beat him with Ohio State now he was favored in both those those games but he at least has familiarity here I think he should just like let his defensive line go to work sit back some more make this Texas offense drive the field and then you have so I'm curious to see how that plays out in that dynamic and then

18:04you have Faeson Brandon the freshman true freshman quarterback who's right no not played in the game this big he's his completion percentage a little off he has all the tools you know he's struggled with accuracy at times and the competition has been great so you know Texas just doesn't pass the eye test or smell test for me right now meaning there and I think that there's going to be the another thing to add into it is muskamp the defense that shuts down this Tennessee offense every year is the is Georgia and muskamp was with Kirby last year so now Tennessee has changed their offense a little bit right they're they're gonna be a little slower a little more run heavy maybe the loss of their tight end hurts here but you know they don't have as wide as splits as often so like they tweak some things but is muskamp gonna use the Georgia formula or is he gonna try to be super aggressive but I think that there's gonna be opportunities for Tennessee to hit

19:05explosives crouchy be electric I think Tennessee wins but there are there is questions all over that I could talk about for hours so yeah stay your case for Tennessee well I think if this was the other way around like if if Brandon was playing at Texas I might have a different opinion about this I think the home field is really gonna help here but I've got so many issues with the Texas offense the defense has been pretty good so far they're not allowing chunk plays as a matter of fact they've only allowed two plays from scrimmage to go over 20 yards must champs doing his job with this 3 3 5 you got a monitor call in Simmons I know he was he's gonna play but he was in a boot in the second half yeah yeah and Sart got a three pissed off in his presser and it's like that's why we have an availability report so I would just keep eyes on that I mean especially you know if if if they're gonna load the box here for to Sean Bishop who had a hip injury against Kennis-Auth state comes out of the game goes back in re-inders it on a touchdown and Hype says in his presser like

20:05oh yeah I probably shouldn't have put the Sean Bishop back in but we feel good about where he's at and he's gonna be in the game that's good because his health is extremely key especially when you've got a freshman quarterback here but you know you can't take much from Furman Georgia tech Kennis-Auth what'd you call Furman traveling circus right you know there's great numbers in the defensive passing success rate top 10 pass rush tackle grade on defense only missed 31 tackles through three games so these are all Tennessee's numbers but again like look at the kind of teams that they played it's really a fade of this Texas offense they are outside the top 100 and have a cloud Hollywood smothers on the injury report and him and Reliek Brown have each just have two rushing attempts have gone over 15 yards where is this running game this Ray League Brown kid that I loved at Arizona State that was just juking everybody out of their shoes 2.1 yards after first contact right now the offensive lines not doing their job their top 90 and stuff rate I mean there's one good thing in their stachi right now and I can't believe I'm about to say this

21:09starts really good scoring position 5.1 points on 21 drives to go over the 40 of their opponents like who knew that that would be the good point and the rest of the offense is completely broken so I'm really you know the run blocking has been really poor very poor and so what do you can do you can unleash arch arch hasn't looked good this season either 5 big time throws 3 turn over worthy plays now he's all he's definitely got his jaw locked up after the whole holly row comments that he was making the you know he just the wider see if you do if you're no would you sit back and then try to let your defensive line win and take away explosives make arch try the field or would you blitz and try and shake arch knowing that you'll probably give up some explosive plays to all these weapons so here's where I think noles will see this every wide receiver on that roster at least the ones that are getting playing time and getting snaps are having major drop issues nine drops there's only one wide receiver who has an out of drop and it's cam Coleman right now

22:13archers drop rate from his targets has moved from 8% last year to 13% this year cam Coleman is an even leading the team in targets I don't know why they haven't looked at him more oh by the way archers three turnover worthy plays they've happened in every single game it hasn't been like just one game where he had a bad like he couldn't handle cover two it's every game he's had a mistake so the wide receivers dropping balls we got Rayleigh Brown who can't run the ball we got archers making a mistake every single time I am so out of touch with this Texas team like there's no juice in the running game wide receivers can't catch the ball I don't think that's going to work in Tennessee at all all right I'll join you some on Tennessee old I got it's mainly a got like just from watching these teams it's there's a ton of uncertainty not a big bet but I'll get in for some I mean it's a new and kick I'll get in for some rock it's a freshman quarterback right and you mentioned that they're not running hyples offense because maybe hyples not ready for him to run that wide split where

23:14they can you know put those slants across the middle of the field and maybe Brandon just isn't ready to make that yet but let's not negate the fact that this freshman kid can run too like he's already got 50 yards on design over 50 yards on design calls like he's a tank himself with DeShawn Bishop I mean that is a pretty heavy ground game that Texas is going to have to deal with so yeah the Tennessee offense has changed just a little bit until branding gets probably more comfortable throwing slants but and type the Texas offense is the fade here all right that's move out to the west coast and talk some organ USC and a potential playoff elimination game organ is a three point favorite total is 61 and a half so where do we start with this one so there's this one's a tough handicap because I mean there's a there's a lot of injuries organ loss the receiver Trent Mosley's not going to play for USC is organ star tied in gonna play

24:17USC just looked horrendous but they always look horrendous when they travel he was a terrible spot they do have some questions on defense they're relying on a ton of freshman organ also looked horrendous in their first two games who cares about Portland State especially at Oklahoma State but how much was that because they were tipping plays right like do I throw that out because obviously they would have corrected it but regardless their offensive line is a problem that's where USC has to win this game now organ played their stud ee in a chore whatever his name is there's stud five star true freshman who's gonna play in the NFL one day they played him last week at tackle it was against Portland State I don't know if he's ready to play against USC but their tackles are bad their offensive line is bad and Dante Moore has never been good under pressure that's where USC has to win this game they need to get pressure and force Dante Moore into mistakes the organ defense also hasn't been as dominant as

25:23you would have expected coming into the year so like why is organ not looked as good well there's been some injuries maybe the loss of the coordinators has hurt more than some thought and then the offensive line has just been abysmal now USC's defense has major holes I was not where I didn't worry about the killing of a Connor injury I thought their offensive line would have been fine and actually have a better five so their offensive line looks good but they're relying on a ton of young guys on offense at the skill positions on defense all over the place they're gonna need freshman to step up here and this is the first real like organ's actually played some real competition USC really hasn't so this is a real step up in class this is a really tough handicap like my gut says organs the side but I'm gonna say something crazy here no one you're gonna hear no one say this on any podcast or any of your friends I can't I want like a I would love for this is going to

26:30be like a 95% of tickets are on the over I would love for this to steam out and get to like 64 might be a pipe dream but I actually can see an under here now it's super scary because you have seized defense has questions organs defense hasn't looked as good but I trust the organ defense and I think organ's gonna come out here and run the ball and they should have success doing it but joining the A gap yeah just put them in the A gap and forget the tackles yeah and then set up play action yep so I know that there could be explosive plays all over and the defenses have looked shaky but I think USC can also get some pressure create some negative plays to get off the field I think organ can do the same and then they're you're just relying on a lot of young guys on offense for USC so there's gonna be maybe some drops some jitters so I actually I make it 60 so um and like my god is telling me this is gonna be like uh 30 to 24ish now it's scary it could

27:35just game could easily get into the 40s but I'm thinking about the under I'll be rooting for USC for my playoff futures a lot of questions here mainly it's like what do I do with that Oklahoma stake in now that we are they the other thing is organ did give up like 600 yards which I did not see coming but like do I just throw out the fact that you know Oklahoma's stake got ridiculous pressure rate and completely shut down this organ offense because they were tipping plays like do I just throw that game out um that makes it pretty difficult but interesting one here I know you like the ducks well it doesn't get to 95 degrees in Eugene either I'm not sure I don't want to make excuses it's a bad loss right tipping plays because of the way Dante more was lining up under center tipping whether it was a run or a pass and then the it was apparently the linebackers on type on tape also decoded offensive line alignments to know exactly where the bulb is gonna be run like of course I have USC futures they're tipping plays and they were reset publicly the game before

28:40yeah go to USC and sell the secrets sure sell the secrets sure I'm confident Gary Patterson was gonna pick up on it I know I'm saying Oklahoma state should have sold them black market I don't want to say I'm trashing the game let's just say I'm putting less value on the game does that hope I mean Oklahoma and you know I this is how my process was work when I was handicapping this game Oklahoma states stuffed 11 of 26 organ rushing attempts it's well above national average and then they turned around Oklahoma state against Murray state week three and only stuff like 20% right uh Murray state even converted a fourth down and landing went over three on fourth downs so for because Oklahoma state could not replicate fourth downs and the stuffing of the rushing attempts to Murray state I think that tape played a really really big part but there's no doubt the offensive line has to get better Dante more has 20 pressures his pressure to sack ratio has gone

29:43from 16 to 30% there's no doubt this has to get better and I think the good thing is is the organ secondary has been really great so far I mean they're 14th and pf coverage grading 15th best and pass EPA allowed and that's with a game against Drew Bestermaker so that is something that you can take away from that now the Trojan's one possession victory I don't know how you're feeling comfortable with that with how much you like USC for the season 99 yard pick six was needed another drive that started at the Rutgers 24 year old 24 yard line like San Jose State and ULL didn't have issues getting points on the board against this USC defense whatsoever San Jose State is on the end like that was garbage time still counts against the spread that's why I love all these people like whoa we throw out garbage why would you throw out garbage time that you have to handicap the whole game but look Louisiana outgained USC overall in yards per play they average seven yards per play and they average they got a TD on almost every time they cross the are the Trojan's 40 yard line so

30:44this isn't just like a we showed up at Rutgers if we can't travel we always leave our bags at home like they're really choosing as Louisiana's offense with lunch getting the TD on the board every time you got into scoring position USC's outside the top 100 and opponent passing success rate in EPA their bottom 20 and defensive havoc right now that measures tackles for loss sacks forceful it's just not there Evan Stewart DeCoreyne Moore are in an elite 2.5 yards per outrun I don't think Oregon's gonna miss germ i'm a clown that much because there's a lot of five star blue chippers right behind them did you get any Johnson back at tight end because he's he's supposed to be one of the best tight ends in the country he's questionable and then your tight end depth is bad but he can be a weapon that can just create a lot of it plays into your which plays into your under in the running game but the last thing I'll say about USC because I'm on Oregon all the way here jade mave is worse successor in EPA comes against quarters coverage that has been the primary coverage look for Oregon this season i'm not talking jade mave at this year i'm talking jade mave i went back the last three years and he just does not do well against quarters that's what Oregon

31:48likes to run and coverage uh you know if this game's gonna come down to well number one i think it's USC's needs to get pressure with their young defensive line they need to win at the line is curmanaging get pressure but you know if this game's gonna come down to the degenerate dan going for them for down he's probably gonna go for them for down like seven times all right uh let's move on to Oklahoma Georgia Georgia is in the marquee Oklahoma is in the marquee section huh they are Georgia's a 13 and a half point favor total 44 and a half i was thinking about taking Oklahoma at 14 yeah they did get hit i make it like 11 and a half but they had a lot of injuries i did play the under yep look this Oklahoma offense is completely broken i mean just look at the Michigan and in the mexico games and now you're going up against them much better deep and they cannot run the ball they did not solve any of their run issues they're gonna still mistral house they're missing their best offensive lineman is gonna be out again how mature is not seeing it how do they

32:52move the ball on Georgia i don't know and then Georgia is offense now i know Oklahoma's defense has injuries this that's my only concern because this isn't elite defense they should be able to man up on the Georgia receivers who i am not afraid of but they you know you have linebackers or herb oganowski Sullivan kip Lewis should be back which is big and then david ston he's a big one he got hurt in practice i think he's questionable i don't know if he's gonna play and they don't have this their defense is just as good as i should they just they don't have as much depth so like the injuries you could start to feel the effects of that but i expect Oklahoma to just you have to play this like super conservatively feel position play it slow try to shorten the game find a way to turn over stocked in and this Georgia offense i'm not afraid of like when i bet an under i'm like afraid of explosives i don't see that with Oklahoma the biggest thing i'm afraid of is

33:54the tier pick sixes but people are talking about stocked in this explosive Georgia offense stop they played little sisters of the poor little cousins of the poor and then a team in Arkansas that might be worse than both little sisters of the poor and little cousins of the poor like they played no one and by the way he's attempted 44 passes 30 like 20 of them have been behind a line of scrimmage and 15 of them in short and just know there's no defense out there at all and then he's just running like 70 yards against Arkansas because no one is there like i don't care about the explosive plays that Georgia's had against these opponents i still have questions about their explosive passing attack so i think Georgia will rely on their run game rely on their tight ends scan with rely on their defense they know that local home is not going to score on them uh i think this is deadshot under all the way this is like uh and this is a huge step up in class for the Georgia offense like right off the bat this is like i guess i got to go oh my number so i'm going to call it

34:5724 13 Georgia wins what do you got i am in line with you sir i took under 44 and a half i project this total on the board uh yeah yeah go ahead and put it on the board which i this is probably famous last words but like i have drilled totals this year for some reason but i make this i make a total in this game 38 and even with Nate Frazier being questionable right so what is that going to do that's going to give you chancey bones who really is just a bulldozer like he's not a guy that has a explosive plays he just runs you over from three yards out for a touchdown i think i might not play one of their so it's to be one of the more explosive receivers on the outside yeah so i i think this will be excuse me i'm bouncing you're not going to be able to throw against okohoma they're they're way too good of a past even their defense in general is just fantastic in almost every single metric it's just the offense is completely broken i mean michigan new mexico now they're chaining fire our buckle chance from the crowd the sooner nation is getting a little bit heated not as heated as fave they'll but they're getting kind of heated

35:59in orman you know in georgia's firing on all cylinders i mean they've had 47 the last week against argon so they had 47 plays in standard down 16 and passing down and then they decided to do drills on the sideline in the middle of the game which everyone's like why would Kirby do drills in the middle of the game on the argon so sidelines because silverfield talks shit about his roster that's why that's how he pays them look oh you is running much less counter and a higher rate of outside zone than they were in 2025 right now but inside zone is still the primary run concept that they have and it's getting a negative EPA it's got a negative play on 60 on 60% of the attempts it's a negative play which is like you know you'll be in second and 15 like really fast georgia has a 54% success rate right now against inside zone i don't see any chance okohoma is moving this ball and they're 127th and havoc allowed like a lot of things are happening behind the line of scrimmage for this oh you offense kind of oh you defense do enough to keep this within the number like literally can this game in 13 0 it could you know i mean they've already played a

37:01top 40 strength of schedule they have the number one defense and I guess the past as far as success rate is concerned their top 10 in quality drives and finishing drives meaning you can't string together a methodical and you're you know good luck getting points on the board once you get past the 40 oh you's doing their part on defense i would i would argue they are just as good as georgia on defense so you're gonna have to have them and no mature mistakes to cover if you want them i want nothing to do with it i'm on the board with you on the under yeah there's some youth on this georgia offensive line so like they this is gonna be like a little bit of a shell shock for the georgia offense man i mean you go from playing like literally pillows to one of the best defenses like pillows for a month straight and then you're going up against one of the better defenses that's gonna be salty playing for their season so at 14 i mean no clomo but hey they go under downgrade argan saws defense from a pillow to a cloud but yeah i'm with you at edward jones we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest it's also taking care of what gives

38:04your life meaning that's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward the key to being rich is knowing what counts let's find your rich together edward jones member s ipc okay sis give me the scoop what have you been up to living my best life i've been traveling working even hiking more and things to team mobile i'm connected for all of it really i need details i mean with america's best network i can pretty much go anywhere even when i'm off grid i'm still connected by satellite that's cool plus i get unlimited texting and data brought so i'm also from my trip to Greece i don't even need to do anything it'll just work when i get there that's it i gotta get team mobile i don't even get reception in my apartment this is why i'm mom's favorite so many reasons to join team mobile find yours at team

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41:17start Utah at Iowa State I spent the most amount of time this week on this game digic is I don't understand this number and we're I know I'm not gonna understand it because the priors I spent so much time when Iowa State and then after all my adjustments and upgrades I'm at seven I played them plus eight and a half and plus eight seven reduced juice is anybody watching Utah football is anybody seen what they're doing watch them against Arkansas that's what happens when you play Arkansas all these teams look amazing did everyone forget that Utah lost all five starting offensive lineman two tackles to the first round of the draft four in total to the NFL did anyone did everyone forget that they lost Kyle winning in there amazing offensive coordinator that everyone forget that they lost their best defensive players their best run defense players from a defense that could not stop the run last year 114th in the country in yards per rush allow this defense was broken last

42:19year and their best players are either in the NFL or on Michigan I don't care that they've looked good at home against Utah State Arkansas and a bad FCS team don't care they've not played anyone now they're first game on the road against real competition and there the the defense for Iowa State is legit there's no other way to put it you know who has a really good one of the best offensive lines in cultural Iowa a bunch of NFL players on that offensive line a couple of potential first rounders you know what Iowa ran for and Iowa State 30 for 90 no one is running on Iowa State there is something to this Jimmy Rogers he did this at Washington State last year true yeah he's doing it now again and let me tell you what and he brought like nine him and Bob it on this defense he brought like half of their their players are from Washington State so they knew the scheme they're they have

43:21something on this defense were teams don't know how to when they see it they don't know what to do let me explain his last 10 games against FBS teams Rogers across Washington State and then this year is nine and one against the spread he's covering by 17 points per game let me let me point out some of the results lost by four as 16 point underdogs at JMU in a terrible spot cultural playoff team lost by two on a safety on the final play of the game as a 17 point underdog at Virginia that was almost in the cultural playoff held Virginia to 20 points lost by three as 34 point underdogs at Ole Miss who almost went to the College Football National Title this year lost by three and again they should have won as a 14 point underdog at Iowa those are all top 25 teams and you and added they had the ball or lead in the fourth quarter with a chance to win at the end I'm we're talking 17 point off 33 point off travel across the country like this team and Rogers I might be like

44:28the most underrated coach in the country so their defense is legit they they hit on some of these lower level guys Aiden floor is going to be able to run the ball on this Utah defense I don't care about their defensive numbers this year they could not stop the run against anyone with a pole slash year and their best run defenders are gone you're asking a brand new offensive line to go on the road against their first real competition here Iowa State's going to ugly this up I think they can control the clock I'm not afraid of the Utah passing attack there's something to this Iowa State defense and Rogers I'm on board I was super impressed that they were fully fed by the way one of the best kickers in the country special teams advantage here that might sway it and Iowa State always underrated place to play as a home underdog of more than a touchdown over the past 20 years 65% covering by five points per game give me the clones I think they pull this off outright most underrated team in the country potentially coming in the air everyone said they suck they were gutted me included dead wrong I've revised and someone out there saw it before me yeah because I

45:35had to spend two days on it because they smoked it right when the line came out and I didn't they didn't come back and there's a lot of people I know that are betting sharp people that are betting Utah and that Utah and it ain't moving to where their number is for a reason because every short number out there has my number which is in double digits I know people yeah because you people up priors on Iowa State that were so low yeah well and it's not like I didn't read the Iowa Iowa State the the the the side heart box score and didn't give Iowa State a major bump you know and look there's only so much you can bump them like I think everyone was just so so low I had a bump on extreme I mean they sometimes just this is what you have to do in 2026 I also am in fairness I could be wrong in Utah I'm lower than the market on Utah coming into the year these offensive line injuries I'm not afraid of the passing attack I mean look I think that they can shut down the Utah running attack and if you do that you're halfway to a victory so there's no

46:39way I would play the Iowa State number because it's way too low from what I've got and there's a couple things that I made notes on that I just I can't I can't get there I am considering Utah on a money line with somebody else if this gets any cheaper don't do it don't do it let me tell you what I saw and if you want to throw cold water on it convince me otherwise that's fine but Jalen has a turnover worthy play in every single game Cemo Iowa bowling green even he made a mistake there too Utah has turnover once this game it's a given yeah it's what he does look look Utah has played one of the highest rates of man coverage this season a rainer has seen 20 snaps so far 30% success rate and a severe negative EPA against man coverage have you seen how much man that Utah is running it's like 50% but they're on his own the scally does you're gonna play man on the outside my thing is they can't throw against man I it's just they're not going to stop the run

47:39I mean go back to the last year what Kansas ran for like 500 Kansas state ran for like 450 they were getting gash and then now there's the three best run defenders are all gone from that team I don't think that they solve the run defense is when you're playing against an actual real opponent I don't care about you know the teams that they played so far okay all right fine let's go the others I agree Aiden Flora his numbers right now are sick six eight yards per day average six to have yards after first contact that's insane how does that happen 8.8 per carry there's a lot of time for touchdown last year too it's okay so let's flip the other side of the ball I didn't want to put too much into Utah stay getting beat by Utah last week because Kevin McGiven is the offensive coordinator Utah and where was he last year underneath Bronco Utah state so I didn't really put much stock in that what they did to Arkansas was dirty I mean they were doing things I'm not I tweeted out what is this formation it's like a sideways Maryland I I didn't know what the hell I was watching they get a real cool shit been like with multiple quarterbacks and this is some of

48:43the most insane stuff I've ever seen with Devon Dan Peer and Bird Ficklin on the on the field and out telling you guy are you wasting it why are you wasting that film on I maybe I thought they needed against Arkansas I don't know right now you saw seventh and rush EPA I understand the schedule but they have ran five at least 25 rushing plays in five different concepts with like four different personnel I guarantee you nobody in the Iowa State defensive staff has had a wink of sleep this week what they're putting on film is counter power zone I couldn't even how many what how many running backs were on the field is like I was there like a 41 out there at one point like I've never seen some of this stuff before and they're running every single run concept so I do not dismiss what Utah has been doing on the offensive side is a headache for a defensive coordinator so I don't see him losing if you want to talk me out like I'm going to pair them in a money line

49:43with somebody else I don't know who you'll be getting tornado tweets I'm in on this I would tell you right now Ames can party like I have you've met a couple of my friends that are from Iowa and they will sit in that parking lot till six o'clock in the morning until they're told to leave well let's stay in the state Iowa at Michigan Michigan is a five and a half point favor total 38 and a half not overthinking it this total was 36 and a half we were joking all I wanted was 38 or better overs taken money don't care now that's 38 38 and a half give me the other I look Tony Diaz actually gives Iowa real thready as a chance to play at the next level I was offense right now they're they basically just throw it to the backs like 88% of their targets or Diaz is getting like half the backs or they're tight end and I think molten and bottom they're gonna play but they're banged up but Michigan has two pro NFL corners like either one I don't know if they're gonna put Hill or Barry because Barry's in playing in the slot a lot like they've even mixed up their defensive looks I don't know how that's gonna work but Iowa's not going to throw here so and the Michigan defensive line

50:48is really good the Iowa offensive line is really good Iowa might have some success running it they're gonna try to shorten this game down on the defense side of the ball it's Iowa they're gonna prevent explosives if we can underwood throw no this is an important game you unleash his legs Michigan's gonna be running it this clock's gonna be bleeding both teams are gonna play field position this 17 10 Michigan wins I mean look at when these two teams have played real competition I will barely squeaked out two touchdowns against Iowa State and Michigan against Oklahoma and even Western Michigan fairly squeaked out two touchdowns one of them came after time expire so yeah this game I don't see this game getting into the 20s solid edition special teams this isn't a film with the only thing I'm worried about is if God for bid they let Hank Brown throw it a lot and then he throws a pick six and then underwood who's a turn a walking turn over he throws pick six is like I think Michigan you run underwood here

51:50you don't put the ball in harm's way and you run you plant you play field position right until you have to because you're you're just gonna be like I'm relying on I trust my defense here where underwood's not gonna throw this game away to the Iowa defense that wants to win this game 14 13 on like two field goals set up by a punt return and a fumble recovery and then a pick six you don't let that happen under I was only seven the nsp plus special teams it's kind of low for them right I know they had to pick it up here um I project this at 41 I need a quick score and there will be a live under coming in it's just principle with me with totals like 38 key 41 key 41 really key can can can I get that live I think that's what I'm gonna gamble with there but everything in the notes this is gonna be an ugly game right I mean Iowa's 138th and pass EPA no shock no shock and hearing that um you know there there's just they have no success in passing downs whatsoever they're 94th and third down conversions um Hank Brown's not gonna throw into

52:52this mission to Michigan Michigan secondary at all uh so you look at the run game I was heavy outside zone rush offense minimal inside zone and the Michigan D just flat out excels against outside zone there 61% success rate against it creating negative EPA for opponents so uh rock meat rock it ain't going anywhere can the heavy rush offense the beat Iowa's D that is net number one nationally an opponent rushing EPA uh so the question really is Michigan's run power the the strength is the inside zone uh there's some power there's some inside zone sevy on hider uh he has more zone read attempts to Jordan martial I said on this podcast against Oklahoma the Jordan martial just wasn't getting it done since then this hider kid has come in and he has more zone read rushing attempts to Jordan martial and he's getting it done the problem is inside defense Iowa's defense excels against inside zone I just this is I don't see the ball going anywhere here you look at the special teams advantage it's all Iowa Michigan's outside the top 100

53:54Michigan may have a little bit better numbers in creating methodicals tackling advantages from grading it it it it doesn't matter any way that you look at it nobody's getting I mean sniffing the goal line here is gonna be tough so I agree with you on the under I just can't from a number respective guys I'm going live under 41 if I can get it and I can't tell why so from the 40 you're gonna get punched from the 40 in this game I I can't tell why but I really want a bet Michigan minus five and a half yeah I lean Michigan too I'm just afraid under what's gonna turn it over I make it seven so I think the dream scenario is an underwood turnover and Iowa feel goal from like the eight yard line the total goes to 41 you bet the under you bet Michigan yeah dream scenario uh staying in the big time Wisconsin at Penn State I love Wisconsin one of my favorite bets the weekend I'm on the under I like to hear I'd like to hear why I'm on the under here well number one I mean Penn State I think we're we're probably at their peak I mean look they've played nobody they played temple who has no defense I mean look temple just gave

55:00up what 50 to Toledo well if they have no defense what's Buffalo Buffalo is non-existent and a Marshall who's been horrendous I mean that worse than I could have ever imagined I mean Marshall got look Marshall we love that coach it's shocking Marshall should have lost a Missouri state last week they should have lost a middle Tennessee they should be all in three with two bad losses Marshall's defense is horrendous and uh everything about so like they've played Penn State has played nobody so this will be a big step up Wisconsin meanwhile has played Notre Dame in a game where the ref's handed seven and Notre Dame and there was a pick six but other than that like they were going toe-to-toe with the Irish I Colton Joseph I thought look good it's a guy that went into Indiana with O.D.U. the national champions and gave them a game uh he I thought he looked good against what I consider the best defense in the country their offensive line is now healthy right they weren't

56:00healthy coming into the air I think that's important and I think this defense is much improved and the other thing is Kobe Howard is out for Penn State and say there's other injuries too he was electric for them this year and he opens what's that he's the top top guy in targets yeah he he has double the amount of receiving arts and and he wants and he leads the country at nearly 30 yards per catch he's a walking explosive he also opens up everything else so that's not one game it Campbell said extended extended period of time yeah it's a big loss so I think Wisconsin keeps this close I just think it's the right time to buy Wisconsin and sell Penn State with core correlative the under Wisconsin needs this to be a little earlier yeah I have the under I by the light Rockleback's biggest strength has always been his deep ball so like that marriage losing Howard and that back connection I think is not picked into this line I don't know what was going on and that kid was 18 years old he had like the most he had the highest success straight of deep balls

57:04I think we've ever seen listen I think what scares me from playing Wisconsin uh see I project the game at 11 and more at 10 that's why I didn't play side but yeah I'm at 888 so at 10 or I prefer something over 10 but 10 there's a couple 10 and has out there yeah I know some sharp people on not that will buy it at 9.5 I know some sharp people that are buying at 10 Wisconsin at 10.5 so I imagine the settles in 10. Well I think the thing that scares me if you're back in Wisconsin is Colton Joseph's number two big time throws five turn-over worthy plays and three of those mistakes came last week against Eastern Michigan oh by the way you can throw a fumble in there too I mean like a pretty bad game from the kid uh the the badger's right now are just bottom 15 in Russian success rate and their 117th and offensive finishing drives whatever is going on with that offensive staff whenever they get in you know uh there's a grimes is calling this this is one of the more terrible performances I've seen his offenses have so far so I think that's what make

58:07more sense for me at the under by the way it's the end of September stuck we need to start talking about weather we're gonna have double-digit crosswinds here at the Beaver Stadium so uh first time this season we've had anything other than extreme heat anywhere oh by the way there's good there's gonna be some wind and in aims um what are not 15 and then potential some rain to ugly it up Jimmy do some rain dances uh yeah I'm like if you tall loses don't tweet it don't don't don't I know you got something cute up for me all day don't don't don't don't come on I'm gonna have some you talk money here we'll see uh Texas Hay and M at LSU LSU 9.5 point favorite lots of injuries in this game LSU lost trade as green they shine spears a couple other injuries to monitor Texas I'm at four your SB plus is at four what are you on this game I don't understand this number I don't think it's injury relating uh it can't be it can't be where am I at I have yeah you're

59:09asking wrong you're asking for SB plus minus four and a half and every time you have that graphic you had LSU's minus six at Ole Miss now you have them basically you have them power rated the same as a and m uh I'm at uh you have to like by a and m power rating since June I mean I think a and m is horrendous uh I tried to tell everyone what do I project this at uh I project LSU minus 9.9 uh so I think LSU burries them now I don't know if I want to play it because some of the injuries but like and in the spot are they emotionally let down but they got embarrassed last year by a and m on their field and that defense remembers that and this a and m team but like Elkos I trust Elkos I haven't read it rally but this a and m offense is broken and I said this before the years my favorite win total under they ain't nothing they can do about it Marcel reneeds to throw with play action if not you're fucked and guess what

1:00:14they went out and got uh the worst offensive lineman from the worst offensive lines in the SEC last year to replace all their NFL players and guess what it's not working so they can't run the ball suddenly they can't set up play action and now all the receivers are hurt and Marcel re just has to drop back and throw it to the dirt that doesn't work and this team is terrible I trust Elkos to get them up the injuries for LSU are a little dicey but as long as LSU comes out here with some life burial go to Agas and let me tell you uh from a mo this is how I equate it from a emotional standpoint because I was thinking too like can LSU get up off the map no here's here's a better analogy of what's happened which kind of makes sense with Lane Kiffin as their coach talking about it in a relationship aspect if you are in a relationship and somebody is massively in love with you and you decide to leave them, spurn them, hurt them and then you leave and then the day comes where they get to have some sort of beef with you and they beat you

1:01:20what's your attitude it's I didn't care anyways I'm the one that left I don't think any of these players care I don't think these players are going to take it into the next week that they can't get up for a game because really they're onto their next girlfriend and they're going to absolutely annihilate their next girlfriend just to be like see don't care about you anyways so from a psychological perspective I think LSU I kind of got to it from a different route I think if they have the chance to win this game by 28 or 35 or 42 they're going to absolutely do it but I don't know where this number came from but even if you have LSU so much burial and Ole Miss and now you have them in the same as Texas A&M this is insane I had to say and you need the downgrade like let's touch down from where you have they are where do you have them power what number in the country oh that I can't get me in trouble here Texas A&M oh yeah actually you know what I'm not okay so I vote in a thing called the super 16 pull there's a lot of guys there's a lot of guys in the AP and the media that vote in the super 16 pull I actually got emailed because I had Texas A&M

1:02:24at 10th now as I say 10 there are two points away from being 19th so I mean come on I mean I had them they're SMU to me so that's where they have them power rated yeah so look Marcell Reed got wiped by Kentucky because of cover two well they can't run the ball so they'd no one respects it so they don't get can't run the play action that's all comes down to he can't read cover two which is all that Kentucky's defense has been running lane has already run well I should say Baker has already run 26 snaps and cover two now primarily they're a cover three team but they have played up one of the heavier amounts of cover two so far he also can't do a pressure and this all of its lines not going to hold up against this LSU pressure that's coming yeah burial as long as LSU shows up burial I think that's I mean I can't get to this number at all I don't know what this number is but yes I think LSU could bury him I think this number is good I think it's going to close 10 plus all right Missouri at Mississippi State

1:03:26Mississippi State six and a half point home favorite big adjustment in the market for Mississippi state and justified I mean you got to give credit to their defense but we we can talk about Mara Taylor but Drake Lindsey's going to play in NFL he's going to get drafted yeah the North Seller is going to get drafted potentially in the first round and their defense shut both them down like I knew that they had a good Mississippi state as talent in the secondary I mean Kelly Jones is one of the best corners in the country Isaac Smith is a is a tower that'll play at the next level does a lot for that defense on the back end but their defensive lines been good and guess who it is Zach on at he's back he did this when he was last year like he's going to bring pressure and what's that that's going to lead to Austin Simmons mistakes now they do have a couple injuries on the on his very proud that he hasn't made an interception yet I must have read it in four different pressers yeah well he's played Troy where he went nine of 19 Kansas and the APB yeah and the the best team in Arkansas though uh the state best team next next

1:04:32the state Arkansas second best team in the state oh okay okay so yeah Simmons mistakes are coming Taylor will be electric but this is like I mean I'm at I'm Loha Missouri a bumped Mississippi state I'm at like six two so I can't for everybody the things I think the Zorers gotta come out you're gonna me like you gotta just try to run the ball here especially the injuries on the Mississippi state defense line keep Taylor off on the sidelines um and then you know keep Simmons from making mistakes uh control the clock kill the crowd kill the bells that's how Missouri has to play this so I'd like seven I'd have to start seven and a half I'd have to start thinking about Missouri but not a a boat I want to be in well my son taught me a term so let's go ahead and use it Mississippi state fans I'm gonna riz you up here for a little bit before I let you down you know there's no love for me from Missouri this year I mean frankly some of the numbers that they have they had 230 total yards against Troy I know Austin Simmons is eight TDs and no INTs but he's two for two and big time throws turnover worthy plays he has not been as great as

1:05:34everybody thinks that he has been Mississippi state generates zero pass rush but they do have a high coverage grade per pff so I'm I'm confident they're gonna be able to put a little bit of a wrench into into what Austin Simmons wants to do cowboy place cover three and quarters that's pretty much of Washington's Austin Simmons but I am not a lover of Missouri whatsoever you have no way to run the ball and when you have no way to run the ball you can essentially just sit back and die and run whatever you want uh the question is can Camario take over this game Missouri's 125th and rush EPA allowed that tells me that Camario is gonna be able to take off and have a massive amount of explosives seven rushing attempts to already go over 10 yards of season fluff bothwell already has two explosives and that's where the levy offense starts from like if the running game gets going what well both are averaging more than four yards after first contact that's a big factor against this mid fbs tackle grade that Missouri has right now okay so now that

1:06:36ever is it up and I've told everybody that likeness that Mississippi state and I power rate them seven and a half for this game I still don't think Camario is as great as everybody on my TV is telling me and I and look let me just let me just let me just stick this out there he has three big time throws and three turnover worthy plays that doesn't match with his TD I and T ratio is he's electric on the ground I'm not saying anything about that I'm talking about his passing who is the real star of this Mississippi state offense it's Anthony Evans the third he has absolutely been killer out of the slot 3.2 yards per out run and is eight out at 6.7 I mean he's going berserk after he's like a cheat code on super tech mobile top five in the nation enforcing mistakles of all wide receivers it's not the wide receivers job to force mistakles this guy's got eight anyways yeah like the people from Starkville Rala I'm a Camario super Camario believer all right

1:07:37South Carolina Alabama Alabama 12 and a half point home favorite southbound is super disappointing 16 nothing lead or at home against Mississippi state last week then just got buried they did get their left tackle back in peak although he didn't look great they were supposed to get their star Dylan store back and they did but he was would he only play like 12 snaps or something and he didn't look like they need him to be an impact player so does he get does he ramp up does he look better this week they have some issues on the back end I don't know the do with these games I don't know what to do with Alabama you look awful against Kentucky for three quarters and then you outscore him by 32 you look off you you're getting trucked by Florida state at home and then you go on a 37 to 7 run I was really impressed with what I saw with Keel and Russell it keeps getting better last week yep I mean South Carolina Alabama these these have been games the last couple of years

1:08:38I just don't know what to do with Alabama like what the Florida state ripped up their day and then like then they're off like they just think that they've looked so and by the way historically Dubois been elite as a first half coach and this is ready it's like 70% and the second half he's horrible he's like 33% it's like a flip this year they're coming out slow and then it's very bizarre so like they just have these such extreme results half to half that I I don't really know what to do with them so I'm not sure what to do with this game well my play I wanted in this game you just decided I'll put it in here after the podcast I want the first half look there are things that I have problems with I project this Bama at minus nine and you know I think there there are a lot of problems that I have with Alabama in this game first off I don't have any belief that South Carolina is gonna have I mean they can't throw the ball they're not very good at it in the first place and Kindle Browse just wants to run zone read all day with up tempo and you're just not gonna get that done against Alabama I mean they're one of

1:09:39the best rush defenses out there right now second in line yards 14th and defensive rushing success right now 15th and defensive separate now you're not gonna run the ball against them and that's what they're gonna want to do and the Norris sellers has been horrible through the air I think he's like regressed again obviously this new offense it's just not clicking right now for turnover worthy plays against Mississippi state last week so if South Carolina is not gonna do anything let's talk about Keelon Russell should I worry about him because he could sizzle through the air at South Carolina secondary maybe he's not up for the task look he didn't have any issues against Florida state he had three turnover worthy plays against Kentucky we already talked about in this podcast what does Kentucky run cover two it dominated Keelon Keelon couldn't throw against it at all well South Carolina second most use coverage is cover two I guarantee defensive coordinator Clayton why did South Carolina saw this cover two is coming on Keelon Russell I'm going and maybe they make an adjustment the second half is our run of the ball same thing they did against Kentucky I want the first half under this game there is some upside of South Carolina in that like okay new

1:10:41offense maybe it starts to click over time peak his second game back and left tackle and proves Stewart is like close to a full ramp up and he he needs direct this game for the South kind of defense look off the edge and take advantage of the album offensive line but hard to trust South Carolina G6 shout to the six gear breeze and duck make sure you check out their episode which is our now Boise at western mission in a big one for the G6 playoff chances Boise floating between a seven and seven and a half point road favorite total has taken some money the over is taking some money I should say I'm not involved here like I kind of lean Boise at seven or better just because from a matchup perspective like it's Kalamazoo this is going to be electric tough trip you're going to get western Michigan's best effort but you want to attack Boise through the air and that's not western's game and I think Boise's defensive line can hold up I think Boise will be able to run on western a bit and then they can hit some I trust them to hit some shots up over top this freshman for Boise has been really impressive I've received her so I just

1:11:43don't think it's a great match up for western because you want to attack this Boise secondary and they have been throwing a bit more downpill this year you know they I mean they didn't do it against Michigan but like it was rice in Monmouth but like go back to the one passing I mean Monmouth for 450 yards on this defense like they they did lose a lot so I think Boise can take advantage slightly into Boise but I'm right around the number yeah I'm on the number on eight I do think Boise is my prime candidate that I was going to put with Utah on a money line so I do like Boise on the money line just for the pure reason of western Michigan Boise I'm sorry Boise runs the ball 60% of the time with numerous concepts but the two that they use the most is power and then man gap blocking western Michigan respectively against those success rate on defense 42% and 34% against those concepts sire gains right now it's worth mentioning sire gains is listed as day to day but Dylan Riley is the one who's had the most attempts on this running back stable five yards after

1:12:47first contact he's already forced 19 mistakles this season I don't think Boise has a problem running this at all so Boise is going to be a money line parlay with somebody else maybe Utah I know you don't like that but we'll get him somewhere else finally before we get to some trash Oklahoma state West Virginia good one in the big 12 in Morgantown West Virginia a very very small home favorite kind of lean over here oh I'm not playing it I like West Virginia so the reason I do is I think that part of Oklahoma state's numbers are that they knew Oregon's place yeah and now we'll Oklahoma state be able to throw on West Virginia some yes but I don't think Oklahoma states getting any stops against West Virginia and West Virginia is going to blitz mestemaker against that

1:13:48offensive line which is really shaky and they're going to get some negative plays probably create some turnovers that's going to be the difference I like West Virginia to get it done at home I don't really so I power rate this Oklahoma state minus one and it doesn't like make me want to scoop their plus one I mean I think this is a true coin flip because this is a pure inside inside zone offense out of rich rod here with camcook and michael hawkins junior and Oklahoma states about a 55% success rate they're decent yes they knew the place he knew I was going to discount the I mean it's not like Oregon ran inside zone the entire time but they like they I mean look they got struck by Tulsa too and then their other game was against the traveling circus but I have the discount that Oregon win and I think their defense is terrible and their offensive line is beat up and bad and Zach always going to do what he did to Virginia last weekend he's going to blitz and he's going to create the enough negative plays and I don't think and Oklahoma state defense doesn't have depth West Virginia is going to go fast wear him down well you're still giving the case for

1:14:51the under here I mean look I understand that because of the tempo this is this that's the problem that I have with buying this right now because of the expected tempo of this game both extremely fast offense there's going to be a million does not first kind of fly but I'm going to tell you right now both of these defenses analytically have the advantages on the offense and quality drives and finishing drives not going to be methodical so there's not going to be a lot of touchdowns going on in the attempts and Oklahoma states outside the top 100 in both EPA's that sound like they have juice isn't isn't a gun to the offense right this team is not a north Texas offense yet EPA outside the top 100 I like the under promise is going the other way and you're asking about what the next key is it's 62 years baby by the way bet sink is back in the action app and it's better than ever now you can automatically track your activity across 15 plus sportsbooks and prediction markets all in one place connect your accounts once and your bets and trades will automatically appear in action as soon as you place them no manual tracking required from there follow all of your action with live wind probability in game alerts and bet analysis

1:15:55throughout the game just open the action app head to my accounts connect your sports book or prediction market and you're ready to go download the action app and connect with bet sink for free today college football is back and we've teamed up with draft kings to bring you a brand new offer whether you're watching rival regames top 25 matchups or simply cheering on your alma mater every Saturday draft kings is now available in all 50 states from New York to California so no matter where you are you can stay connected in one app if you're new to draft kings sign up with promo code bboc spend five dollars and get hundred and fifty dollars in total rewards that's code bboc download the draft king sports app and keep college football at your fingertips all season long draft kings the crown is yours before we get those in trash cubie injuries of note i'm just gonna list some teams we'll probably get to some of them wake forest geolope has worth noting odu hannacle questionable bailer lagway should be back call out of state hanging questionable south alabama bishop david bort questionable Hawaii alahedo looks like he's gonna go but banged up ucf

1:16:58will be without barnet again jankens gets to start tolsa will be with her backup we'll get to that in a moment let's get some trash what's that smell it stinks baby this trash the sweet sweet trash the trash is a goal my all right trash is rolling this year and we got some ugly trash again we're going to head to head i know on this one give me bowling green the worst team in the country plus eighteen at home against south Florida that the south Florida care about this game travel in the bowling green here just gotten barris south Florida by the way should have lost fiu needed a miracle to beat army they should be one into their overvalued bowling green look i i love i i was state so like i didn't even penalize him as much and they think you have two special teams touchdowns they're bad they did lose jojo johnson their top corner it's not ideal i you were just way off on this number so we're going to head to ed here but give me bowling green gatta georgia southern plus eighteen and a half

1:18:05at home against houston georgia southern continues by the way georgia southern should be jackson go state they were right in it with clampson their run defense has been really good that's important against houston it's also important late when houston gets a lead uh in order to like not get their their doors blown off is a tough spot for houston coming off of a ranked matchup going on the road to georgia southern who will be geeked with this game this is the first time ever a power for a program has coming two states borough who we fritz yeah fritz geeked about fritz coming as with their geek yeah and fritz is he used to coach here he's not going to run it up uh tour to southern is going to you know they're short passing attack they can move the ball their run defense been pretty good and they haven't underrated home field advantage since transitioning from fbs i mean two fbs in 2014 against fbs teams thirty five twenty and two against the spread at home sixty three point six percent you get a great crowd here i don't think fritz wants to run it up

1:19:06georgia southern will be feisty uh in a tough spot for houston going on the road before conference play after the heartbreaking loss to texas tech give me gada i'll i i'll join you on the floor yeah there's 17 and half out there gada i mean i mean i'm sorry i made it 20 but i mean considering i think they're going to build a statue for fritz there someday i just i mean it's got backdoor written over i don't even know if they need the back door right this one might be pretty close uh let's go Utah state um this is a pure pure pure spot play i think this is the pure spot play on the board is of what one of the first bets i make two and a half still out there uh look Utah state they they they got penalized too much in the market for lose n' i to host state just like charlotte did for losing to citadel charlotte's covered two straight easily Utah state look they were up against it against Utah they were off its accordion i went to Utah they almost upset washington is a four

1:20:08touchdown underdog there o and three desperate for a win Troy goes on the road second straight game after an all-out effort Troy's limited in the passing attack Utah states rundis been really really good that's how you just stime this Troy defense franco gets it done give me the aggies laying under a fuel goal in a great spot at home desperate for a win catching Troy just traveling out to two before conference play second straight road game after an all effort by the way since 2005 Utah state 32 and 15 against spread as a home favorite verse fbs team 68 percent give me the aggies i this was the early pick of the week wrote up on sunday i took the under at 51 we're down to 47 uh numerous reasons to think that uh not gonna be a lot of scoring here so i think it's still good i projected at 41 uh then let's go this has come down a bit but we're going to Missouri state plus 34 and a half against smu this is a very very tricky spot for smu i talk about this almost every

1:21:15week on the podcast teams after a ranked loss favored by more than 30 are horrendous against the spread i'm talking 26 percent since 1980 since 2005 11 and 28 against the spread failing to cover by seven points per game one of the wins was all out of the state last week because of a hail marry so it really should be worse than that Missouri state has looked better on offense lately kacy woods i think is doing a good job there and most importantly lashley is not going to embarrass kacy woods that's that smu's the offense coordinator for years to take the Missouri state job they're best friends they call each other brothers they were on the Auburn staff together that won the national title he will not embarrass him here he will not run it up i don't think that's baked in the divine and it's a tough spot for smu uh give me a Missouri state what 100 percent 100 on the board kacy woods and rat lashley's

1:22:15um one of the stronger connections out there yeah absolutely i mean it's a game that i make 36 so it's not even like it's that big of a jump i would love 35 oh there's one out there but get it per for our grading purposes yeah that's 35 from early in the week okay all right uh i don't know if yeah we'll include this in trash arc state minus six refading ricky cons enough said all right so that's it for me i'm trash we got five o'm bowling green Georgia southern Utah state Missouri state and Arkansas state Colin has a trash pick this week i saw it in the app so wait to my minute men how dare we'll say it's a tough spot they played two cupcakes going across the country but it's Carson Conklin playing for tech state uh day to day so i need to play their backup is horrendous uh so look first off the numbers way too high should be closer to a pick and Stonehill had three turnovers in the second half that made that UMass score looks so good pop Watson had a turnover worthy play again Stonehill uh i just don't i'm not saying bad you know the UMass is you want to get into

1:23:17turnover or the plays in underlying numbers you want to dig into sack states numbers this year look they're pretty bad they're really bad they've had eight giveaways and two takeaways at least sack state is 17th in defensive rushing success rate that's the only thing that's green in their entire analytical sheet so let's just bank on the west coast travel and say the game should actually be a pick because that's where i got it you are about to enter a world unlike any you've ever seen before where the beautiful the brutal and the brave all meet yeah all right let's go nowhere fast uh San Diego state Toledo new and kick new and eastern kick for San Diego state tough tough uh this total i believe is taken over money because you know i vote these teams play with pace uh i don't know the efficiency will be there total up to 51 and a half

1:24:22through the key of 51 you got anything here Toledo also took a ton of money now three point favorite yeah i mean i i i mean i would guess the under and the undercashed last week on a really poor on a really lower total with San Diego state because they're successful right now i mean they're almost dead last and passing success rate jaden didn't go all isn't getting getting it done i was excited about bird of manual none of these things are getting done they're almost dead last and quality drives they cannot string together a methodical i know they're playing at 24.9 seconds per play but i said this earlier in the podcast just because you have a fast tempo it doesn't mean that you're automatically going to cash in once you get into the money spot so there's not a lot of advantages here and plus on defense they are really good at stopping the rush explosives which is a big part of Toledo's offense and so when you combine that one good defensive component plus the fact they're top 15 attacking it especially at the second level and you can stop explosives at Toledo will produce i like the under here i i bet i projected 42 all right it's time everyone's been waiting for whoo pig sui

1:25:23absolute dumpster fire dumpster fire i don't know how we win a game the rest of the year just follow the program Bob give us a death sentence Collins talking razor back football Arkansas Tulsa oh boy i mean i swore i wouldn't do it but like my number said i should play Arkansas as a seven point favorite at home against Tulsa and they're back up quarterback i know they're back up quarterback as experienced in textual aims but i'm gonna listen to you on s is as you i can't bet Arkansas i can't do it i can't bet Arkansas i'm already fading them yes yes i am yes i am and and i think the thing is is Tulsa's playing with a very heavy heart right now assistant coach john beckley's wife his 30 year old wife was working out she's pregnant and she passed away and treylam said two days ago in his presser that the entire program players coaches management everybody is playing with an extremely heavy heart

1:26:24because of the loss of his wife so you know prairies going out to assistant john beckley it's a really big deal to Tulsa what's the drop off from baler hay's to dexter Williams baler hay's a quarterback as listed as doubtful dexter Williams three tds no turnover worthy plays against east Texas a and m last week i know it's not a good data point but what's the drop off from baler hay's to dexter Williams right this is still an a c a c program that we didn't think was going to be in the top half right so what is the jump from their quarterback down at dexter Williams that that's the big question here about how you make it but i will say this this Arkansas team is more than lost they are extremely lost they're deadlast in every single category they're going to quit so i do have a source inside the locker room and that source told me that the fight that the secondary was having between each other during the game last week is not just a passionate fight it's

1:27:27more about anger because one player is putting an effort and apparently up to a dozen guys that play defensive already quit i don't think i could ever put i don't when i start hearing that one guy's pissed off because 12 other guys are in quit mode and gained three of the season and then they got Tim cramsey the offensive coordinator who i might see up with the clubhouse here in a little bit uh uh saying that we're a one-dimensional offense look brother i've seen your analytics i don't know what dimension you're talking about because the rush isn't happening they were averaging two yards per carry kj can't throw it more than five yards down the field i don't and we are deadlast really getting quarterback yeah i i told i said this at the beginning of the season and i'll say it again the best quarterback on the entire roster is a 17 year old kid i think he's like fourth string i have to go out to see if he death starts and look but a 17 year old may be running

1:28:28this show in three weeks so all right here we are i want that Arkansas then by the way i mean dexter Williams has played a bunch too it's very excuse i only i only have baila here he's worth like one and a half points so it's not a big drop off i sound like you're going to like a freshman has never played all right before we get out of here let's go three now that's here jenna clear eyes full hearts let's go play some football all right first down Friday night lights uh we have an army game army temple at four eastern because uh they're they need to prepare for a nacee dc concert i mean you're more kind of repair for it so they move the game up to four eastern sadly i'm right on market uh and then we have navy at uab uab is taking a ton of money there's questions about the navy quarterback health yeah i'm uab keeps taking money every every every week uh maybe uab is just good i mean kemi i don't have anything on either game but the world needs to know

1:29:28it's commie Wilson fading navy indoor army i'm gonna fade navy yeah absolutely i'm gonna be on this uab number got a little bit past me uh let me see the last yeah so i'm having a really hard time at six is you in our podcast where it's six this thing it was i mean this morning it was above seven i think so the number's getting away from me but uab for me a very extremely live team that you should put in your money line round robin i try to stick to i started to stick to saturday only is on money line round robins just so everybody gets enough information doesn't miss the Friday night game but uab absolutely needs to be on there north western indiana indiana is down to a 20 and a half point favorite island who is yours here i'm like involved signates pissed to have uncovered yet by the way faith big favorites that are o and three against this bread against teams that are three know against this bread historically smash uh and north western loss that's best offensive lineman last week they have other injuries they're going to be missing probably their best defensive back they have an edge rusher that's going to be out right and indiana mike it's going to get daily

1:30:29back and uh why two guys they had two guys announced daily and why it was like studs i don't they're probably in the cap count but now that s north western offence is dealing with injuries now look chip the chip kelly child's marriage is working but i think sig wants to make his he was pissed this week after that western talking game i think now that's under 21 i could only look at in the anna and then cal clemson i hate to play callers but clemson after that rain delay went even more tempo cal uses tempo yeah i don't think either defenses any good randold's actually has some confidence now i played some over i think this should be above 51 so uh which is a major key so i played some over 50 over 15 and a half is still fine so probably plays in indiana like the over in cal clemson you got anything any of those games yeah echo the indiana uh i'll look at a little bit more because it did come down from 21 to 20 uh so i want to i want to know why that happened if it's just being shaped uh i know i make the number 26 so i don't really worry about

1:31:32indiana i'll be on it in some form or fashion i took clemson plus one and a half on open just from a numbers play this is fast bottom like i had like a seven out of game chute league traveling across the country late kick two for east coast team yeah so consider this the the banner in the sky that i will be live trading this game and if i can get cal plus seven at any point i'll do it all right it's about a second down our favorite overdog aka our favorite favorite it's called the overdog parlay i'll kick things off give me all brin minus nine nine and a half to find anything under 10 i make this over 10 i don't think vandee is any good this year and it's a true fresh and making his first road starting a hostile environment the biggest problem with the over in this year is our offensive line a couple usf transfers just haven't been able to translate out of higher level but they can handle the vandee defensive line look goch he's been very good as a favorite over touchdown he needs a nice comfortable win he's gonna keep his foot on the pedal here i like the tigers in a good bounce back spot and vandee like tough emotional letdown vandee by the way i had to have this game circled their defense after uh Auburn has had to have this game

1:32:34circled because vandee has owned them rip through their defense last year or two i think this is a really good spot for Auburn or you go give me the tigers where you going i did a complete reversal on this game at the beginning of the week i took wake against Louisville and a lot of it was because any Louisville had some had some struggles back in the secondary with some injuries well guess what geolopez is a hip injury that he's been dealing with through Purdue and through Miami last week he was probable this week he's questionable it's getting worse he's heard it more and then you know brom comes out and says in his presser oh yeah we can defend geolopez because he's a lot like Kevin Jennings who we just faced last week like i don't know man these are two things for wake that like if you're having if you got wake money down at the beginning like i did i was like oh i i don't like either of these things and then you start looking at at the law firm of keen ols brown and brown like what what they're going to do with their zone read is going to absolutely blow wake out of the water 40 percent success rate against inside zone wake is 128th and havoc their bottom 15 and quality drives allowed and so you know you got to

1:33:37wonder like how did they cut we just loved them to cover against Miami and the bread and butter they got wake on the it's a cover Miami was that they had eight explosive passes from from Lopez to Carlos Hernandez and the slot jack Foley on the outside well Louisville is going to show a ton of cover three and wake scene 94 snaps against cover three and they have a 38 percent success or as way below national average so wake cannot throw into cover three which is something Miami doesn't use so i want like i completely flipped on this i think Louisville is going to run wild here at if geolopezes out this isn't close on 13 and a half oh i'm on i'm on wake here i played plus 13 with geolopezes injury if he's out this should be where i have him worth close to five points he knows the offense excelled in this offense under robazella at south albano's a perfect marriage he's come in he's been amazing the backup is a freshman Steve Pizzella he's never played this i thought his name was steel Pizzella steel Pizzella it's a huge drop off if and Lopez

1:34:39also needs to use his leg so he's not fully healthy but it is a tricky spot for Louisville which is why i played wake like they're off the smu game they played Ole Miss then there was a short week like they've had a lot of efforts and brama's the dog god he's horrendous is a favorite and they're sloppy they commit penalties they're bad on special teams he's 12 and 22 against this spread against that the s teams is more than a touchdown favorite 35 percent but if lopez is not healthy or doesn't go they're gonna get buried so there's some ace mage worse there uh so our favorite favorites are Auburn and Louisville and then finally third down our underdog moneyline parlay presented by draft kings for week four turning good weekends into great weekends it's time for the moneyline parlay you know where i'm going it's a little crazy i'll estate like clone baby don't doubt give me rogers i tried it last week never again

1:35:39who you don't want uh my dept and i i think i'm rolling back my i don't think i'm gonna put anybody on you tell this week um tennessee's gonna be Texas uh let's just keep you short here this is a fade of the Texas offense right now they're outside the top 100 and have it allow the offensive line is not protecting anybody hollywood smothers is on the injury report he hasn't been that effective anyways he's only had two play two rush two rushing attempts have gone over 15 yards same for really brown he's been terrible 2.1 yards after first contact so if there's no run game you're gonna need arch to save you except there's been nine drops already this season by every wider seaver that starts except for cam colman and why cam colman doesn't leave the team in targets is mystifying to me so this offense is not creating drives the one weird thing is that they're actually doing well and us scoring opportunities they're just not getting a lot of them right now and they're becoming extremely predictable when you can't run the ball and arch has made a mistake in every single game from a turnover worthy play rate so give me tennessee at home go to rocky top i could list a thousand reasons what i like about their offense but let's just leave it

1:36:43with the balls two home teams pulling off upsets i was state and tennessee pays out plus eight sixty two at draft kings that's our underdog money line parlay for week four presented by draft kings you'll definitely want to tell these over at draft king because all customers get a profit boost every game day in the month of september so download the draft king sports app today and use promo code bbose when you sign up draft kings the crown is yours we got to about twenty eight the thirty games including major breakdowns of all of the great matchups if there's a couple others that we didn't get to do you want to hear about live show ten thirty and eastern we go over time now we'll answer questions in the comments share of thoughts how you even give away free bets and stuff like that so join us there we'll tweet that out make sure you check out the six gear freeze and duck nine five nine bad b there's going to be a lot of hot takes this weekend with all these big games make sure you call in let us know where we're wrong we're right if you want to bend whatever you recap show we on sunday out by sunday night we'll talk about the weekday games as well we'll be back same time next week for week five thanks for tuning in thanks to cologne for joining me as

1:37:47always stay hot brother thanks to our producer david on the back end make sure you subscribe on subscribe subscribe to our friend tell it on me do the five store review really helps us out enjoy this amazing slate it's having a good week weekend catch you all later cheers these out action network reminds you please gambler responsibly if you or someone you care about has a gambling problem help is available 24 seven at 1 800 gambler at Edward Jones we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest it's also taking care of what gives your life meaning that's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path

1:38:49the key to being rich is knowing what counts let's find your rich together Edward Jones member s ipc hey sports fans your away game road trip doesn't start at the kickoff it starts on the road before heading to the game in Eugene take a moment to enjoy the journey and explore to all it's in valley located just west of portland and north of Eugene sip world class pinot noir soak in picture s views and craft a game day trip you'll talk about all season take the scenic route to twalton valley and make every mile part of the game learn more at etv.org.com slash fans hey it's the shanty plumber from foot around and find out coming out of the drop it's been a special time for us here at foot around i want to thank everyone from the fans to the sponsors especially not just for supporting azy but for showing up where it matters like the business of women's sport summit that kind of thing really moves the needle and now that azy starting a new life in Dallas

1:39:51we don't know what next season is going to bring but we know that we're all on the same team and it's been amazing to feel the love and support so keep showing up for our girl show for each other thanks to guyco and our listeners honey philippis and another photo from argentina how with team mobile of course mita he's video calling us hold the family did you get my photos we did they're so pretty here to share every moment with team mobile enjoy data roaming at no extra charge in 21 latin american countries switch now on the team life app or t-mobile.com slash conic datte while buying plan a part of not for extended international use you must reset in the us in primary usage messa coron on network visit t-mobile.com some people use chat gpt to answer questions others use it to get real work done with chat gpt work you bring the goal plus real inputs like briefs notes files feedback data and project plans it can help turn them into an analysis tracker deck outline prototype or workflow you can review and keep shaping you stay in

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