Episode 613: The Ring Cycle

0:00Welcome to Norris Code, the number one podcast for your Minnesota Vikings. I'm your host producer. My name is James Pogaschenik. Thank you guys so much for listening. And on the other end of the 10 candidates, we have our analyst and co-host. I know him from numerous blogs and podcasts around the internet. Most notably from WideLeft.Football. He is Mr. Useful Human, Rifuson, Rif. I'm not entirely sure what we learned to make in the game between the bills and the lions. Other than the bills have a hell of an offense and Detroit does not have much of an defense. Dad and Robert E. Lee was a stat-patter. Well, okay, we didn't learn that during the game. We learned that as a result of a questionable tweet.

1:03The questionable. Well, there's data in it. Yes, there's data in it. The data in the presentation is slightly questionable. We can just go off on this instead of an episode. Like, I'm fine discussing this thing. It'll be in the show notes. There is a great graph trying to show, I guess, efficiency. No, it's not efficiency. It's volume on both axes, right? So it's total battles fought and war war, which is war winds above replacement for battle commanders. So you can use the chart gives you enough information to generate inefficiency metric. But it itself does not have the efficiency metric. Napoleon Bonaparte is the goat here. Yeah, Napoleon Bonaparte is like every chart you looked at in 2020 where Napoleon and Mahomes were both in like the upper right.

2:05They just start away from everybody else like what are they even doing playing the same sport? But going through the comments, there's a bunch of really good, let's call them critiques of the approach, right? So no gangus con or really any Mongol. So one user said no gangus con or any relative of his kind of devalues the list. I say this as a huge Napoleon stand and Franco file. Someone else said, wow, Napoleon really had to own wizards MJ Ark. George Washington system commander. Yeah, there was a genuine argument on my timeline about this about whether or not Alexander the great was a system commander. Incredible. Robert Lee on fraud watch. McClellan with a positive war is borderline insanity, which I don't know enough about the civil war, but my understanding of people who are civil war enthusiast slash historians. That's probably pretty fair.

3:07I'm really, really curious about this and how did McClellan rate higher than me. Great to see the goat to K. A. Schingen ranked so well. Eli Manning is the George Washington of quarterbacks mid most of the time, but when the moment called for them. We got the job actually really good. This is. Robert Lee was the original high volume inefficient shooter. Yeah, I was calling him a volume shooter with that's so good. But yeah, I mean, not shocking that there's a gay in overlap between the Robert Lee fan base and Kobe Bryant fan base. Yeah, so this is you know what? We're actually just going to do two hours of this instead tonight. No interview with Lauren Cox. We're just going to sit and break this down. It's we're just going to like lean into the whole meme of like guys over 35 to 40. They're getting to really really get an or more to we're smoking meats. Now I have gotten into the smoking meats, but I haven't forgotten my roots of like watching the history channel back in the day when it was history and not on stars.

4:15Right. I want to learn more about submarine. So I think I'm on this path. Yes. I just envision you like texting Michael Kist first calling him a name and then asking for like a clarification on something. It's always like tell me is the weird thing. Yeah, after after sending you also an insult. Yes. That is that's just going to be how that works. So we are going to have a preview of the bear's game that will be happening on Sunday. We'll have that here in just a moment with an interview that I've conducted earlier today. And then we will get into the mail bag before we begin. Thank you guys so much for listening to Norse code. If you enjoy the show and like to help us help support us. There's a couple different ways you can do that. Patreon.com slash Norse code $3.50 a month or a little less for the year subscription gets you access to the bonus material, which that'll be coming out here in a couple of days. And you get access to the discord all of that. You can also go to paypal.amuslash.com as well.

5:16Or you can go to Norse code dot threadless dot com for any number of wonderful pieces of Norse code merchandise. Special thank you to Daniel Snyder who are Daniel Steiner rather who signed up. Well, you're not really being honored as a producer on Norse code unless I misspell miss pronounce your name. So yeah, but as the former Washington, let's go with commanders owner. Glad you went with that one. The copyright doesn't exist on the other one, but right, which is why I didn't say it. Oh, okay. That's yes. If you are a stickler for one thing, it's it's copyright. It's trademark and copyright. Yeah, that's what you're working on me for. It's what your merch store is. It's great, which like seems a little weird, but fine. Daniel Steiner, thank you so much for supporting us over on Patreon. Let's get into the interview that are we've conducted earlier today. This is with Lauren Cox of Lockdown Bears. And we will be back on the other side for the mail back.

6:18I'm here with Lauren Cox, Cox sports one, a PFF strongest defender. And also he happens to do podcasting for Lockdown Bears. How you doing? You know, after the PFF kid, the Williams grade this week, you know, I haven't seen a lot of. I haven't seen a lot of. I mean, we are going, you know, that we're not actually talking about anything else. Actually, this is what the podcast is about. You know, I, I will say, you know, I don't know. I don't know where for PFF anymore. I used to, but I, and I find my, my willingness to defend has decreased drastically after everyone I knew and loved there left. So now it's like, yeah, well, whatever. Okay. But, okay. So for people who are unfamiliar, PFF gave Caleb Williams, was it like a 64 or something like that grade? Something like that. People are mad because he was like the 22nd ranked quarterback in week one. Yeah. And he ranked like third in EPA per dropback and probably also third in yard per attempt.

7:18Oh, looks like fifth, sixth, fourth in adjusted net yards per attempt, fifth in pass or rating. So he was like, you know, a top five quarterback by most traditional measures, as well as some of the more advanced measures. I believe he was third in success rate as well, which is usually like when we see like a really productive quarterback, get a low PFF grade very often. It's like a success rate thing like, oh, you built it off of 102 explosives. And the nature of PFF's grading system is that it kind of caps how much an explosive can help you. But here he had a really high CPOE. So you had a plus 11.4 completion percentage over expected by next gen stats is accounting. I know that a couple of people are different CPOE measures, but like generally speaking, very, very high in that last year, his completion rate was very low. It was a huge concern for everybody and everybody agreed that that's the measure that we should look at. And I was pretty low last year and he ended up with like what a 72% completion rate along with a really high average per attempt.

8:21Yeah. So by a lot of measures, he performed very well. And PFF was like, no, no, no. Yeah, you're wrong. Dummies, idiots, morons. I think that's in the tweet. I think they said that. It's actually great. It's great. If you don't agree, yeah. But they did they were like, hey, we're not box score watchers, you idiots. We evaluate every play, including plays that don't count, right? Including plays are taken off the board. So notably, his largest negative in that in that they identified in the piece was, was it a minus two? That would have been crazy. It was a minus 1.5. Yeah. I think a bit much for that play in particular. Yeah. Which which like that's about 1% outcome. You don't get a ton of minus 1.5. Maybe that's exaggerating, but it is pretty rare. But on this play, it was taken back because it was an off sides. He is in the red zone, the very the low red zone. He's basically the goal line. And he throws a pick to a lurking defensive lineman, right?

9:22Who is who's dropped off the defensive line grabs a pick. It's taken off the board because it's off sides, but it's not the kind of off sides where you're like, oh, free play. Just take a risk. Because there's not a reasonable argument that he could have known this play was off sides because you didn't jump off sides. It sounds like he's like lined up off sides or look like it's a line of off sides. So PFF is like, look, we're trying to figure out if this guy is consistent, if he's good from play to play. And he had no control over the reason that this didn't count. So we're counting it as a negative and I actually don't have an issue with that reasoning. Sam Watson said, hey, I think that should have been a minus one, maybe not a minus 1.5. And given that we're using a zero to 100 system, set of a plus minus system, which I think you love. I loved. Loved the plus minus system way back. That's going to swing is great by maybe 10 points. So that which is interesting because most plays get a grade of zero as it should be. So with all of that context for the listeners, what's your take former PFF employee Lauren Cox?

10:27Yeah, I tend to align pretty closely with what Sam said there. I mean, Sam's always been very anti zero to 100 and I slightly less so, but I did like the plus minus so. But I agree with him that like the flaw here is not necessarily how PFF graded the entirety of the game. Yeah, I think we disagree with the severity of the negative on that interception. And then PFF didn't give him as overwhelmingly positive of a grade on a really nice story made to call commit in the end zone. And it's really like those two plays on a play to play basis over the course of the game is where the entirety of the like individual disagreements are. But then the bigger flaw here, I think is less that we disagreed on two plays and more like the way that they convert the play to play grade into that zero to 100 scale is where the real flaw happens here that like his his raw grade at the plus minus level would reflect the much better quarterback performance.

11:27But because of this generally mysterious formula that honestly even as a seven year PFF employee part time back in the day, I even when they made the change I still don't really understand how it makes I know what it's supposed to do, but I don't know the math of the formula of how they convert it to a zero to 100 scale. And that's really the issue there as opposed to like did they get all these plays wrong. No, they probably got one or two plays just a tiny bit wrong, but the conversion to the zero to 100 scale really kind of outsized the weight of the difference of those plays to make his final grade and the rank of those grades seem a lot lower than it should be when really like it's only when you pin it down just a couple plays being slightly off that doesn't seem like it should be that big of a deal. But the conversion to zero 100 is what ended up making it look so much more off base than it probably actually was from like an individual greater's perspective. So for some additional context, if we you know, if Sam is correct and he has a lot of experience with PFF grades, that probably puts Caleb around the 74 if we make the kind of corrections that we were talking about, which you put him 10 or 11th right next to Tyler Schuck and Jackson dark, which sounds like damage.

12:38It sounds like damning with fein praise, right. Sounds like that's bad company to keep, but they both actually had some pretty good games. It's actually not that bad. I don't expect that to continue for either of them. I'm not a Schuck guy. But if we look at the percentage positive grades and the percentage of negative grades, which PFF does now offer this is so funny. PFF's new kind of premium stats pro or whatever they call it does offer more statistics. They are cooler. They are also harder to find much more difficult to navigate the UI sucks. But once you get around that, that's PFF and nutshell, man. Yeah, once you get around that, it is, it is better and more data. So in terms of percentage of plays that are greater than positive, he ranked 17th of 32 percentage of plays that are greater than negative. He ranked 15th as in 15th best. So the 15th lowest percentage of grades plays that are greater than negative. They're like 15th. So with 8%. So from a pure kind of like once we get rid of all the zeros and all the routine plays, which some of these plays that are greater than this routine, maybe you could have greater than this plus point five minus point five.

13:45He's around the 15th tier. I didn't do positive minus negative, which maybe is the best way to do this to complete the analysis. But I'm on a podcast. I don't care. That seems kind of maybe instead of 20th and if we kind of take this imputed grade of 11th, he may be somewhere on the 13th 14th range and that seems maybe closer, but is that enough to explain the discrepancy? Like, how would you explain the discrepancy between that is a better way to put it. And the actual like he ranks third or fourth in these various production metrics. Yeah. So I think part of this is like if we if we want to dumb it down and go back to like, you know, big box score numbers like you through for 270 yards, right? This was not 350, right? This was not up and down the field carving and 72% completion percentage is great. You know, 9.3 yards for passive attempt, about a 10 yard average, jepp the target. Like to me, that was a really good smart decisive quarterback performance, but not like, oh my God, the performance of the ages, you know, who just absolutely shredded the panthers defense.

15:00I think kind of a funny thing to say about a 59 point game. Well, yeah, but that's the other thing, right? It's like they see the score. You see the score and you know, and obviously the EPM stuff is like he did a really good job. But like, I think that where you sort of find the discrepancy, then with the pf grade is like it's in the zeros. It's that a lot of the praise from people who follow the bears closely for Caleb in this game was not like, oh, while he made these a couple of heroic throws because he makes a couple of those heroic throws every single game. But like the real praise for Caleb in this game is that you had fewer throwways that were instead check downs and like, a throwaway is going to be a zero graded play and a check down is going to be a zero graded play, but the check down is going to give him, especially when you're throwing to Luther Burton and, you know, Roman, and stuff, a three yard check downs going to get you nine or 10 yards. And that's more valuable from an EPA standpoint and, and you know, all the other metrics and box score, then the same zero grade that would go on unintentional throwaway versus a completed pass that should be an easier expected throw. And I think those sort of like minor nuances between the two.

16:01Zero graded plays that actually one is more valuable than the other, but the grade itself can't capture that. I think is where you see more of that discrepancy. Okay. You would have a bunch of like 0.025 graded throws in this game if there was a delineation. Yeah, I was going to bring that up and I was like, I feel like we could go down a rabbit hole if we started doing that. But then you opened up the door anyway. So great. But one thing the note here is that there were more rushing yards from the bears in this game than the were passing yards, seven and a half yards per attempt six rushing touchdowns. So I should say yards per carry to distinguish it. But seven and a half rushing yards per carry six rushing touchdowns, 291 rushing yards on 39 rushing attempts versus 261 passing yards on 29 passing attempts, which does not include sacks. But I'm only looking at this like top lines statistical thing from profile reference. And of course, it's just not include the interception. And I don't think and I assume this is truth also that like EPA per play and stuff like those also don't include the plays.

17:11Yeah, yeah. Which what are your thoughts on including a play that didn't count? I'm perfectly fine with it because they include the good ones too, right? It's not just like if he had thrown an 80 yard touchdown pass that was called back by a holding penalty. He would get the positive credit for that play too. And so if you're trying to capture the big picture like how well did this individual player perform as a concept I like including those plays and the grading is also smart enough to know or the graders are smart enough to know that when it is the Aaron Rogers hard count free play when he knows it's a free play. That changes how the play is graded as opposed to when the quarterback didn't know it was a free play. Then you grade it like normal because the quarterback wasn't trying to wasn't assuming he was going to be able to get away with something he was treating it like it was a real play. So you grade it like it was a real play. But when he's not treating it like it was a real play like Aaron Rogers. Then the greatest different if he chucks up a deep ball and it's intercepted. You're not really getting penalized for that because it's clear on tape that he knew he had nothing to lose. Okay, yeah, yeah.

18:12So that was a source of confusion in the commentary about this which I was going to say maybe the article could have pointed this out and in fairness, the article did not pointed out but also I doubt people would have read the article to find that information anyway. So yeah, that was a source of confusion about whether or not they would actually do that in that situation despite the fact that multiple people who have worked for or work for pff said the very thing that you just said. Very nice that we had we live in this information environment. I'm glad that it is affecting football too. Okay, so time to actually talk about Caleb Williams versus the Vikings and what could happen here. So the bears are on a mission to score the most points in NFL history as far as I understand. I was going to say like very often like I remember when people were talking about the Golden State Warriors going for the bulls is a wind record which they did get right they got like 73 wins.

19:13And then they didn't win the championship that year right and a bunch of people like oh my god, you're focused winning all these regular season games. They're attracted from your ability to win in the playoffs which normally is kind of a stupid argument but also probably met you didn't do load management like they do in the NBA now so I don't know maybe a play the role. But there's always this kind of secondary argument that when your goal includes something that is not winning games, you are reducing your ability to actually win games. And so he's going to get the offense motivated to just score as many points as possible to get some wins. What are your thoughts on that kind of approach here? Yeah, so I do have some mixed feelings about it as an approach like when you set the goal to something that's probably not super realistically attainable sometimes that can make anything short of that feel like a disappointment. So I think from Ben Johnson's perspective, I think he kind of likes the idea of like, you know, if the Bears don't make it to the NFL record would be like I think it's like 37 or 38 points per game is what it maths out to and if they end up at 30 instead, they hold home, you have a 30 points scoring offense, you probably still got one of the NFL.

20:28So like I like the idea of sort of you change the anchor of the framing like that. And I think it helps. But I also think, you know, when you talk about you get too focused on something that's not necessarily just about winning. I mean, scoring the most points is you are going to win if you scored an NFL record like you can't not win a bunch of games if you have the highest points in football. I mean, you know, like you and this you have the the can historically bad defense to lose those games still, but like statistically speaking, if you're if you're the highest scoring offense in NFL history, that mean that guarantees you a minimum of like what, at least 10 wins, right? I mean, we don't know the number, but like you can't make it scoring 38 points again, you know, like you just can't. I you are your test and some serious juju with with these superlatives here. It's impossible. I mean, okay, you could score 70 points in three games, right? And then get some done today. It is possible, right?

21:30The distribution of points in a season like that is unlikely to play out like that. I will give you that. But I will say the 2010 charters were like they scored like 28 points a game, right? They were second and points first and yards and then defensively. Where were we at? Oh, man, I'm like going through the because pro football reference changed what they look like, right? Yeah, a couple years ago and I haven't adapted because I'm old. So like, so I pulled up like the lowest, the worst defense is in NFL history. It was like 33 points per game. The 2020 Lions were there in the 1981 Colts. So like from a bear's offensive perspective, unless you have the worst defense in NFL history, then you need to score 33 points a game, which wouldn't even be the record setting. And I realize these are averages, right? So some games just still going to lose. But like if you're averaging over the course of a 17 game season, I would think it would be hard to lose a ton of games, even if your defense is bad, as long as it's not literally the worst in NFL history, if your offense is pushing historic numbers on the other side.

22:32Okay, so I pulled up charters in points per drive, second in offensive and fifth in defensive and miss the playoffs. Anyway, it would be very funny if the bears followed suit given how bad that defense is. But we will get to defense in a second. Caleb Williams, really high completion rate quarterback. We've always known him to be that that's so cool for him. So he was the second most blitz quarterback in the league after Jordan love for obvious reasons. Obviously the Vikings will blitz Caleb a lot, right? Is he going to get blitzed at a 55% rate like you did apparently against the Panthers, maybe, maybe not. It's definitely on the table. And he, you know, if we're using PFF grades, graded a little bit worse against the blitz than against the non blitz from my understanding. What are kind of the explanations for why Caleb Williams and the Ben Johnson offense with this like really excellent receiving core, maybe struggles a little bit more against the blitz than not the blitz, at least as far as we've won his concern, maybe this is not persistent.

23:38Yeah, I think generally last year he wasn't particularly worse against the blitz. But I think a couple of things there. I mean, in this game in particular, you were still trying to figure out how much help you needed at the left tackle position in particular with the tight ends and running backs. And they used the running backs in past protection quite a bit, which wasn't phenomenal for the bears. And as I saw in the Vikings game last week was not phenomenal strategy for the packers trying to stop the pace but either. So I'm curious to see how how that plays out over the course of this game. But you know, I was surprised the numbers came back to me because Caleb was so much more decisive at getting to his check down, like not not to say that he was just going straight to the check out, but like being willing to take it instead of hanging in there and trying to extend and do a bunch more. But I think the Vikings are stupid. I think the Panthers were sitting in a lot of his own coverage behind it. And so then I think when that first reads not there when you're trying to find the quick easy something other than I think he starts to try and do a little bit too much when there's a blitz coming down. And he knows like, OK, the clock is accelerating a little bit there. But generally, I don't find myself.

24:47You know, worried about the decision making being that much worse. I think just if anything, when this offense is at its best, right, it's when Caleb can do the full five step drop hitch and then fire that dig route over the middle of the field. And the blitz can kind of speed up that process or not allow him to go through that process in a way that puts this offense in the best position. So then he's got improvise a little bit more. And when it's a blitz, he can't necessarily extend the play a ton with his legs because someone will be coming after him in a way that he can't just outrun if it's a free russure. So then he's kind of got to just find somebody to get the ball to. And I think that's probably where you see a little bit more of the decline, a little bit more of the throwways happening in those kind of situations. But I don't think it's a drastic difference of like going to. I mean, from the panthers game, at least being the, you know, the Achilles heel, I worry about it a little bit more. So when it's Brian Flores is blitz as opposed to you know, ever was arrow in Carolina. Yeah, no, that makes sense. So how do you anticipate then that playing out when you think about it in the context of like a Brian Flores defense? Yeah, I'm, I'm really curious because you know, the last Bears Vikings game last year in week 11, Flores is blitz rate was super, super, super high.

25:56And then obviously it was super, super high again, against Green Bay this last week in week one. So I don't know whether to expect Flores will again really put the pedal to the metal or whether he tries to, you know, he always tries to kind of mix it up and stay one step ahead and not just give you what you expect. And so, well, this be a game where he shows a lot of blitz, but just does a lot of sim pressures and anticipating that the Bears will be already the stop of 100 but says every single snap. And then see I fooled you. And now you got all these guys cleaning the past protection. So how they try and balance that out will be interesting. But I know like Ben Johnson's putting a really strong emphasis on like this game will be all about him as the play call or making sure that he always has answers for his quarterback on every single play. Kind of no matter what Brian for is just is throwing at them. So that that's a combination of couple extra guys into block here and there, but also having hot routes available built in and I think it's going to be a good measurement of Caleb Williams's progress too. Cause you know, sometimes taking those laps and those easy throws and those check downs were more of a afterthought and sometimes inaccurate from Caleb last year. And this week one game against the Panthers was a lot of him taking those and being decisive and felt like really good progress.

27:04But you know against Carolina, I think he felt a little bit more freedom to do so when the running game was working so well and he could kind of feel a lot of confidence in the offense as a whole, but if Brian for is is blitzing down his throat and you know sort of fall back on habit when you're not panicking a little bit, but the literal pressure is on quite a bit more. I wonder if we will see Caleb revert to missing more of those again or whether he's kind of clearly truly, you know, crossed a hurdle there of he'll be ready that he'll have an answer all times and know where to go and pull the trigger quickly on that. In a way that he didn't really much last year against the Vikings, but did more against the Panthers in week one. So we'll he go back to the old Caleb or will he be this new grown grown quarterback that will have more of a more of a consistent response to when those pressures come. One thing that we kind of jumped out at me about this game is so first of all, he had a really low pressure to sack ratio, which is true of him for the entirety of last year. It's really interesting. Don't see that very often with with people whose cramples often as he does to find more room. He's very good at like throwing away on the run, but one thing that's so that to me is that despite this like 55% blitz rate.

28:11He had five deep attempts the second or the third most in the NFL last week's second most as a percentage of all attempts. So even as blitzes were coming, he was willing to kind of throw the ball deep to everybody, but close to the love, of course. But that seems to be kind of just like baked in that's like an endemic part of this game. It's interesting because Jared golf with Ben Johnson was not a deep ball throw where at all. In fact, I think they had some of the lowest eight out of any successful offense in the league in the Ben Johnson years. So given that the Vikings were number one in the NFL last year in preventing deep shots and in lowest depth of target as a defense. How do you see that kind of playing out? Are they going to continue to try and match up in the blitz and create these deep shots for for burden of the new day or or will they kind of attempt to adapt and take those check downs like you said? Yeah, I think there's going to be a real effort to try and keep the vertical passing game as a part of this. And I don't think they're going to be stubbornly forcing it necessarily, but I do think Ben Johnson's going to be looking forward like certain situations where it makes the most sense where they can where you know it's second and short. So if you're like, hey, we can try and set something up here and launch it versus you know when it's

29:30first and 10, you know, you don't want to find yourself getting behind the sticks. And so I think they're going to kind of pick and choose their battles there and it may depend maybe even more so on how successful they are in the running game to kind of stay ahead of the sticks in that regard and find ways to set up those kind of situations where they feel like they can afford to take those shots down field. And generally, you know, Caleb does like to go big play hunting when he can as well. So I would expect, you know, they're not Ben Johnson's not just going to roll over and say, hey, we got to throw check downs all the time. But also understanding that they trust their receivers can be a good example. Their receivers can be guys who can catch that three yard route in the flat and then up turn it into an eight or nine yard gain to stay ahead of the sticks as well. Alright, so Caleb has jumped to looks like second and MVP odds. I say that the little bit of hesitation because every book is different. There's like wild differences in the pricing here actually. Yeah, this is one of the areas where you probably go arbitrage on thing if you were good at that sort of thing. Anyway, the aggregated betting odds tell us that Caleb Williams is second behind Josh Allen and ahead of third place Lamar Jackson in the MVP odds at, I know, let's go plus 800.

30:37That seems to be the closest to a consensus line here. Would you take that? I think there's good value there. I mean, if you're sitting here today and asking me, Lauren, do you think Caleb's going to be the MVP this year? No, you know, I'm not counting on the offense being that consistent all year long and really also that Caleb being the guy who gets enough of the credit for me when they rush from a 300 yards in this game. He gets the credit for now. But like if that keeps being the formula, I think eventually people say, oh, well, that, you know, that bears running game is so good in the way that Jared golf never quite won that MVP in Detroit when Ben Johnson was there because they had great weapon. He's in a great running game and a great offensive line and it wasn't that people said, oh, golf is secretly bad. It's just like, well, he doesn't deserve MVP. But the thing the one thing about this is like, it's a very much a momentum kind of award. It's a narrative and momentum type of award. And so like him starting off this way and getting up into the conversation from the get go and not trying to be like a late bloomer in there. I think helps set like the anchor point of the narrative. And then as the year goes on, I also think there's a lot of voter fatigue about Lamar.

31:41Jackson and Josh, I'm like, okay, they want MVP's before and petrol was one MVP was before like I think there's a there's a hunger thirst or some kind of need for like I think voters and the public want someone new, right? They want the looking for that next story that next guy to be the MVP. And that's why I like some of the value on Caleb Williams is kind of a long shot play there. I mean, maybe not now that he's jumped up to the second best odds. But like I could see a world where. If it's kind of close where like Caleb has a good year and no one else clearly dominates in a way that makes them the head and shoulders MVP if there might not just be some like well, we don't want to give it to Lamar again. We don't want to give it to Josh again. And Caleb's been a fun story goods and he's like close enough so like that he ends up winning the award more from a narrative standpoint than him truly being, you know, the most valuable player best quarterback and league. But more like the most valuable player that we want to give it to this year. Best quarterback in the division right now Caleb. So, so like I think I don't know if you swapped Caleb Williams and Jared golf right now is I think golf is doing just as much as Caleb and week one so far.

32:50You know, I think golf is in a worse situation. So like it's like, you know, so we're talking like individually in a vacuum. I think golf might still be the better quarterback today. But he's in a much worse situation Detroit from a coaching standpoint and an offensive line standpoint. So I'm not, you know, I don't know that golf is going to have the better season than Caleb will. So I guess it depends on how you want to slice it. But I mean, yes, the best quarterback situation and best quarterback output in the NFC North Caleb Williams. Yes. Best individual player in a vacuum. I think I'd still go golf. But by the end of the year that might change. All right. We got a Caleb Hader. Who is the best receiving option on the roster? Hmm. I, you know, I would say close to the loved one still despite having two targets and zero catches last. But like he represents still the biggest mismatch. And I think in the most well-rounded player to like he is fast and athletic and like, you know, they put him at wide receiver and ran a post route and Caleb just missed him.

33:52But like it would have been a really nice touchdown a really nice route run in a way that is just a big wide receiver out there. But obviously, you know, is a great blocker and can line up in line and do just about everything for them. So I still think Colson, loveland is who is most important to the offense. And I think the most like dynamic receiver because he's getting more those, you know, safety and linebacker matchups. Whereas like, you know, Luther Burton is probably the most explosive like dangerous with the ball in his hands type of player. But like he gets accounted for in a way that Colson, loveland doesn't. Colson, loveland doesn't quite yet. And that may change as the year goes on. And you're hedging so much, dude. It's crazy. I said, close to love and then, you know, I threw them, you know, I'm just saying that like, what if you were going to be explosive with the ball in his hand? I want to acknowledge that like, you know, Luther Burton's outrunning them in a 40 and is more likely to take the ball 80 yards and score. But like until Colson, loveland gets treated like Travis Kelsey or, you know, those guys that kind of get double teens and carry all over the field. Like the most effective weapon. He's going to be the most effective weapon at that point until that.

34:52Okay. He is today walk or real. Yes. And it's more of a jade is kind of how it's like how he how he pronounces it. But yeah, I mean, he's he's your ultimate like training camp hero guy undrafted for agent last year. Worked his way out of the roster with special teams and has a little personality to him to him. It's a nice catch is in the preseason. And just kind of quietly went about his business all year. And it wasn't until late in the season, like the last couple of weeks of the year that he got on the active roster and made a couple nice touch down catches it. And even then you're like, all right. Well, you know, you see number four and number five receivers make a few plays here and there. But it's kind of just doing the same thing again. He's maybe the most tenacious blocker for them at wide receiver and Ben Johnson is really big. I'm like, if you make some great blocks in the game, I'm going to find a way to get you the ball and particularly in the end zone. So that's why he finished with one catch for one yard and a touchdown. And like that was his reward for some really impressive putting guys on their butt in the open field as a blocker. Okay.

35:52Best center in the division is a gear prepare. No way is not. Well, who is it then because I'm having trouble. Yeah, I mean, it certainly isn't maze in Detroit. So then we go to the Vikings and Packers and Sean Ryan wasn't great against Minnesota. But I mean, I don't think the answer would have to be then Sean Ryan then right because it's like you scrugs. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. But this is a pretty good offensive line for the division. I feel like everybody has some gripes about their own offensive line in this division. But this feels pretty good. You said that the left tackle needed help. What's up with that? Well, it's, you know, it's Brexton Jones and that's a placeholder until Aussie, Tripillo finishes his miraculous patella tendon recovery that is already way ahead of schedule in a way that doesn't feel humanly possible. But for an offensive lineman, especially, but no, I mean, you know, Brexton Jones kind of is what he is at this point. He's inconsistent and can't anchor super well, but isn't going to totally derail your game plan, but isn't going to leave you feeling like, oh, that's a sure fire lock down blind side.

37:00Like the bear's offensive line is I think clearly worse than last year, not bad and not like to not going to be a problem, but just not like they were even better last year than than what they're doing so far. This year, Bradbury is a downgraded center from Drew Dullman, obviously, of course. And then, you know, last year, Brexton Jones was a week one starter, but he was hurt from the move. He started the season still recovering from an injury and never played well and then got benched because he was playing poorly because he couldn't put much weight on his left leg as a pass blocker and that never goes well. So then, you know, they cycled in a few younger players and settled on Aussie, Tripillo, their second round pick, but then he tore his patella tendon in the playoffs. And that's supposed to be like a 12 month injury and he returned for the end of training camp somehow and is still he's practicing an unlimited basis, but still kind of rampant up to be ready to play. So that was kind of just this ticking clock on Brexton Jones of like, we know that you're pillows ready to go. They want to put Aussie in there and unless Brexton Jones is playing so well that they don't want to pull them, then they're going to pull him when Aussie's good to go, but it's just a matter of a matter of time at this point. I never like having what feels like a little bit of a ticking bomb at left tackle, but it's not going to explode. It's just guaranteed to not, it's guaranteed to change at some point. That doesn't feel quite like stability.

38:09Do you see how Dallas Turner did last week? I did. I'm quite concerned about how that's going to go. And Darnal Wright's been dealing with a knee injury at practice this week too. Oh, that's so good. Darnal Wright is good now. Yes. He's going to play, but he's just not be 100%. Sure. Sure. Deondre Swift, I was under the impression that Ben Johnson hated him. And then I don't know. There was like an offseason talk. They like a sit down. He's like, hey, stop with the shenanigans. And Deondre Swift was like that. And now they're buds. I don't think it was even that. I don't think there was like some big coming to Jesus moment. It was kind of like, I think that narrative that they didn't get along. I don't know that there was a ton of like, you know, details or like, there I say concrete reporting on that other than the fact that obviously in Detroit, Ben Johnson was the offensive coordinator when they got rid of Deondre Swift. And that created this assumption, I think that well, they he must not like him because he didn't want to pay him there or whatever.

39:12And I think from Ben Johnson's perspective, he was like, well, Jameer Gibbs is really freaking good. Let's just get him instead. You know, like it was it wasn't like, oh, Deondre Swift is terrible. Get him out of here. It was just more like, yeah, you'd like to have better at that position. But like from the moment Ben Johnson got here, every bears fan assumed that started the clock from when Deondre Swift would go. And like, also from the moment Ben Johnson got here, he praised Swift when he got here and said, hey, we like Deondre, I think is really good back. And like every draft, they wouldn't take anybody until the seventh round. And they would again say we like Deondre, we're not going to trade for anybody. We're not going to go sign anybody. We like Deondre, they told us over and over again until giving a huge contract extension last week or a big kind of a huge, but you know, a notable contract extension that I thought was fairly decent market value for the bears, all things considered. But like Swift has gotten noticeably better in his two years back with Ben Johnson. He's his eyes now, right? Like that's that's so big. Yeah, I mean, he just he's not bouncing everything to the outside the way he used to. He just gets down hill. He's willing to take the yards that are there, even if it's not the home run play. And it just feels like he's doing a better job of taking every inch that the offensive line is giving him and the offensive line is giving him plenty of those two. So like, you're just kind of getting the best of both worlds. I would say the one thing, he's still despite being a pretty explosive guy.

40:24He does not have that breakaway pull away speed like he got he had a he should have touched down against Carolina that he got chased down for like a 31 yard game that was like, man, you he should have I think of the end of the being faster in the open field than he actually is. It's much more short area quickness, but he's not nearly the. Is it like a nomative determinism thing like with the name like Swift, you would expect it or is it so? I think so. Like he's so good at the little jump cuts and you kind of just assume that if a guy is short area quick and explosive that like and he's not heavy or like particularly humongous that he should be fast too running down a straight line. Slow. He's just not. Think of him as being faster. I think I'm just being a stat back kind of guy and he's really not. All right. So I've gotten at least one pronunciation wrong so far as it manungai. Yes, manungai. Cool. Is he better? No, I don't know. They're different, right? And well, yeah, but like you can only pick one to have on your roster who you picking. I'm picking DeAndre Swift for now because manungai think second year as a seventh round pick, but like the ceiling might be higher, but today Swift is clearly I think the better player.

41:30Swift's more well rounded. I think he's a little bit of a better blocker. More effective as a receiver out of the backfield as well. Manungai might be as good of a runner, you know, just just purely like turning and handing the ball off to him, but I think Swift is a little bit smarter, a little bit of a little bit, you know, just a more complete running back. Manungai's a little bit more north south. Really great contact balance bounce off of guys and has. So probably I think he kind of has the opposite of the Swift effect, right? Like we think of manungai as being slow and he pulled away for a 61 yard run. Yeah, that was that was pretty cool. He's a little faster than people think and I think Swift is a little slower than people think. That's mostly a problem with our perceptions than them actually being particularly fast or particularly slow. Fair enough. Rashad Johnson bust right fourth round bust capital B bust from the fourth round. Yeah, he was not guaranteed to even make this 53 this year. He's the bear's really like him on special teams, but you don't draft the running back in the fourth round because he's a great special teams player, but we all thought, Oh, he was just stuck behind bejohn and Texas. He's going to be great in the NFL if he just gets the chance and he dealt with injuries a lot this first couple seasons.

42:34So I'm, you know, there was always some plausible deniability there, but at this point, yeah, that ain't going to be much. Who on the Vikings defense concerns you given the offensive style of the bears given who is playing for the bears in all that like matchup wise, scheme wise, whatever. What is the concern that you have on the Vikings defense? So number one is definitely Dallas Turner, we talked about we don't have to, you know, this kind of obvious, right? Great great ad pressure against concerning left tackle and slightly injured right tackle. You know, I'll go there 100%. But then like I think it's Jalen Redman at this point, like on that entire ball, no, or let's go. I mean, so like I have a lot of confidence in believe it or not, Jonah Jackson has really been great. And I keep worrying for the day he's going to get hurt, but when he's healthy, man, he's been really, really back to lie and leveled Jonah Jackson. And obviously you kind of know what Jotunia is, but like particularly for Garrett Bradbury on those reach blocks trying to get out front on on wide zone. You know, I certainly don't love him versus Levi Drake, right? Regas or whatever, but like if he's trying to like get over and kind of pick up Redman with Jonah Jackson or Tony pass on him off, like I just, that's, you know, that's right at the center,

43:45like the literal center position with the center of that concept where you're kind of deciding to cut back off of that block in particular from the center. And I just, that one worries me. I don't think you, I mean, you guys know Bradbury. I don't have to explain what he is at this point. Like that. You understand why I have some worries there. Yeah. So also for context, bears ranked number one last week in outside zone percentage according to I believe Sumer sports. Does that sound about right? Yeah, that's like all the all they ran. I mean, I ended up being like, it was like 51% or something or just over 50% but then it was like 25% duo and then like a bunch of trick, you know, like endarounds and other kind of. Yeah, nice category, but like their first in place or running in terms of running back designed runs. We've got. PFF has 75% zone, 25% gap. Sumer has 63% outside zone, no inside zone, which holy crap. Yeah, no power, no counter. We've got pull lead draw trap here. Pitch toss sweep. That's all one category. That's about 3% option 5.7. There's an option play here. Two option plays.

44:56Vagely familiar, they go to read option with with K the blimsy that he didn't keep either one, but they sprinkle him in occasionally just to hold somebody, you know, not accountable, but you know keep them on their toes. Right. Yeah, just you know, hey, if you're cheating, we got we got an answer to that. All right. So they do like outside zone. That's what are what are the typical responses for a defense when you're up against like a I guess this is his pure outside zone team as there isn't the NFL. Well, you know, you say it's pure outside zone and it is from a you know, when you're categorizing the runs and what what is the blocking scheme of the offensive line, but like the majority of the runs went through the A gap. I yeah, but it is outside zone is the scheme. Yes, but I mean, like from a defensive perspective, the genius behind the brilliant. So where you want to, you know, you want to praise it. It's like it always looks so different for the opposing defense that like it can be hard to key in on that. But you know, they run to the right almost two thirds of the time. So you can kind of guess that I don't give a running play. You're the light you're most likely going to see the offensive line is, you know, wide zone blocking and they're heading to the right side of the formation. Okay. But like it is always going to be a slightly different formation with slightly different alignment and different personnel.

46:13And there's a wide receiver working back across the formation that looks just like the play action past they ran earlier. So you got to watch out if he run in a quick route to the flat that Caleb can pull and throw. You know, as this wide receiver inserting during his pre-set motion or is it a jet sweepers at a fake right like there's there's so much window dressing and like optionality of it that makes it really hard for the defense to just say, oh, they're running outside zone most of the time. So I know I just need to step right and get to the sideline because it there's so many different wrinkles of it that the one time you try and guess and jump the outside zone, right Caleb's rolling out to the left, but it looks just like the outside zone, and that tight end working in the motion back across formation is wide open the flat because you jump to, you know, I mean, they're just trying to make it so that you can't win as a defense, even though offensively they know the first six runs are all outside zone and the offensive line can block it up the same way every single time, but it's not that easy to just key in on. All right, let's talk about the defense. I don't want to knock Jalen Coker or Tatmik Millen who are very good players, but like what the hell man?

47:19Yeah, that's true. Yeah. So I think, so when I look at this, to me, it's less about like, I think Coker's going to have a big year. I think he's very important and tense and really good player to it. It's more like Bryce Young, what the hell man? Yeah, exactly. I didn't want to like say, hey, man, they got some players, right? But offensively overall, they should not be scoring 30 plus. Correct. They have two good players and it's those two wide receivers. And you know, like Chuba? He's fine. You know, but like, for example, Chuba Hubbard burned Jalen Johnson on a wheel route for four 35 yards. You know, like that's the problem because I so I think from a game plan perspective, I think Dennis Allen came into this and said, Bryce Young ain't going to cook us. So he had his corners very aggressive and Jalen Jensen jumped to that wheel route to the flat. And then the running back turned up the sideline and Bryce Young hit him for a big gain. But I think Jalen Johnson wasn't expecting that either Bryce Young would have the time for that route to develop or that Bryce Young would be able to deliver that ball in a spot that would connect. And so like, there were a couple times.

48:26Jalen Johnson, like, jumped routes and was overly aggressive and got burned forward in a way that didn't seem very characteristic to a healthy Jalen Johnson who had maybe the best training camp of his career so far. So to me, that felt like it's got to be some kind of either like game plan thing or like mentally he's just trying to do too much or trying too hard. I suspect that will improve, you know, over the course of the season, if not immediately for this game in week two. But like across the board, like the defense struggled with a bunch of mistakles. I think it was 15 in this game. It was the second highest rate of mistakles a week one behind to think the Denver Broncos. If I remember the PFF tweet that I saw correctly. It was like 30% mistakal rate. So when you're playing 30% no way. Yes. I think the Broncos were at 34 and the bears were at 30%. So I just said, do we think that 30% is 30% of all tackle attempts or on 30% of opposing plays that was a mistakled because there's two very different things. 30% is just so high to me. Yeah, 30% of all tackle attempts. Oh, she's Christ. Okay.

49:27That's that's my not just 30% of plays there was a mistakled. But I think so like if you take essentially if you take I just found it. Sorry. So they are second behind the Broncos and this is I'm pulling it from the API and summing it in weather. So it's not the official. They might have something different. But 24.2% which is still astronomically high of all tackle attempts were missed, which is second to the Denver Broncos 26.1. So at the end of Sunday, they were number one in the NFL in mistakled rate. Correct. And that wasn't really in no TFLs. What in the world? I just I just found that. Wow. Yeah. And nine of those were on receivers after the catch. Like they missed 15 tackles. It was nine were on receivers. One was on Bryce Young and then five were on runs, I believe. So like like. But you know, TJ Edwards missed four tackles. He's never missed four tackles in a game in his bear's career. Tyree Stevenson missed three. He's bound to miss some tackles. Yeah, that one. I would that one's easy to believe. Yeah.

50:27And then the rookie Malik Muhammad in the slot also missed three tackles. So like, you know, I don't know that that's going to happen with that level of concentration every single game. Like I, you know, I'm not someone excuse it, but like. I'm not as worried about the mistakled rate. But like when Dennis Allen is running man coverage on over 50% of the snaps are somewhere right around 50%. Like when you miss a tackle in man, there's fewer defenders nearby to come over and. You know, clean that up for you. So you end up giving up like each mistackle in the passing game in particular feels a little bit more magnified because the damage that it results in is a little bit worse than I think in zone. If you miss a tackle, you know, you got another other defensive, another defensive backer safety or whatever can kind of come over and clean it up a little bit quicker there. So I just felt like. It was kind of a compounding issue in week one. And then there are very real concerns about this past rush not being good enough and guys not holding on Tyree Stevenson to still some liabilities at times and coverage. But like if they tackle a little better and Jalen Johnson figures this shit out really quickly here, like I don't think they're going to be 37 points to Bryce young horrendous all season, but they're not going to be a top 10 group. That's for sure.

51:31So so for some context here number one in week one or number two in week one in cover one rate, number two in man coverage rate according to summer sports number three according to pff. And we just not to say they did a bunch of one high they mixed a bunch when they weren't in cover one they they mixed a bunch of coverages around. But they were more man heavy than most defenses are around like 45% depending on who does who does the calculating who does the charting. So yeah, they they did like man coverage a lot relative to the rest of the NFL again less than half the snaps. It's just what the NFL is like. And you're right, you know, if you've got especially if it's a short out to a receiver or something like that you miss one tackle and out something like a 40 art play. One way to resolve this problem is with a good pass rush boy would that be nice. So in terms of pressure rate the bears way better than I expected in terms of pressure rate that might be a panthers offensive line thing.

52:37But they were like top 10 in pressure rate according to summer a little bit above average according to pf. So summer between like 13 maybe by by if you kind of average them all together. They didn't blitz a ton but they didn't blitz like rarely either they blitzed at about league average rate. So they got a little bit of pressure is that a Bryce young such Carolina panthers thing or is there something here. I think it's more of a Bryce young Carolina panthers thing and I will say I find that pressure rate number well accurate shortly to be a little bit. Miss leading only in the sense that like not all pressure is created equal and like if you look at the win in the play the bears got pressure the majority of it came within like it was after three and a half seconds of the quarterback holding the ball. And so that meant that like yeah win win Bryce young would hold on to the ball along they would get a lot of late pressure and I think like greedy Jared had a surprisingly high pass rush win rate in this game or pressure rate on I don't remember which is that's but like it's it's happening late in these plays where like it's still counts and it's better than not getting pressure on those plays.

53:49So it's very different than like disrupting what the quarterback wants to like the quarterbacks already gone through one or two reads before the pressure gets there and the pressure isn't necessarily what's totally you know taken away his ability to complete passes on those plays which you know then points to the coverage holding up at least well enough in the beginning of those plays but then also you can only hold up so long and coverage and then yeah the passers gets their late but that by that point by the time the quarterback is actually starting to get pressured the receiver is getting open so Bryce young can complete the pass to him. So that's where it's like there is pass rush and there's pressure but there's there's a foundation here but it's not happening quick enough and it needs to be better but it's not necessarily fully reflected in purely the traditional traditional numbers we might look at. So in terms of pass rush win rate the bears. I mean again this is pulled from an API starting out with pf's aggregated data is I think this is a bunch of individual pass rush win rates summed up and then divided so it's not perfect but the bears were a th worst it looks like in pass rush win rate which actually the worst was the Denver Broncos with that hell happen to them Jesus did you want to say I mean I did but like I know also who plays for them and I'm just like right what in the world.

55:03Okay so yeah that kind of bears out it's always fun to call out a guest but sometimes it's nice that a guest is validated because now there's value in listening to whatever it is you have to say so let's talk about these pass rushers. I like I like when we're 45 minutes and it's like hey you know this guy knows what he's talking about I didn't say that you should do it. I said that you said something that was correct I didn't say you know what you're talking about. Let's talk with these pass rushers so we've got Montess wet we've got Austin Booker allegedly we've got Dio di Inbo I never pronounce his name correctly we were already on a pronunciation kick how do I do this. Oh dang Bo oh dang yeah it's yeah I forgot you would just have to combine the yep oh dang Bo okay and well he had a statement about being like new and improved right that didn't seem to happen. And you got the hard part right there Dio is usually the hard part like in the first name but yeah the whole thing was like the bears the Ryan polls at some point this off season said Dio dang Bo's like really motivated coming off of it.

56:04Yeah so bears made a whole thing on Twitter it's like oh we don't need to trade for Max Cross because we have a motivated Dio dang Bo. She's gonna talk and to the point where Dio dang Bo has seen it and then like we'll drop hints to it with a smile during press conferences about like. Okay well that's not fair now he's winning me over. Well exactly he's like in on the joke and kind of likes it you know like he doesn't like the whole like everyone wanted to replace you part of it but like. He likes like bears fans always like no we're rooting for a hashtag motivated Dio dang Bo. Okay so and oh I guess technically Daniel Hardy who I think he's a workout warrior right he's outstanding measurable along with interior lineman Jordan Vandenberg who's. Rast chart and we both love relative athletic score to no end with no criticism. Um he's he's a relative athletic score when viral I think a little bit yeah. Neville Gallamore also pretty good athlete okay what's what's going on here.

57:06Um well it's a lot of journeyman defensive tackles and a six round pick that the bears insist will be. I heard he had an outstanding preseason so I was waiting for this guy to demolish the Panthers. Yeah and lo and behold a six round pick didn't come in to. Really don't dominate right away in week one but no I so I mean it's a it's a big group of potential and. And a lot to prove and we haven't quite seen it yet but one week is not enough to judge that but like you know Neville Gallamore's never been a. Dominant starting caliber defensive tackle get a few sacks here and there whatever and like Contavia street is starting because the bears traded away Jervon Dexter for peanuts because they didn't want to give them a contract extension and. Streets never really been that consistent starting caliber defensive tackle so they're just kind of hoping that like. This combination of guys can all elevate a little bit and collectively make up and be a better defensive tackle group and they're definitely more of what Dennis.

58:07And so on wants from a steam perspective but like that a lot of proven production from anybody in that room not named Gray Jared and he's 34 and didn't play well last year well well being injured a little bit. Contavia street probably the worst alignment from that 2017 NC State team if I remember correctly wasn't that like a great let me take a look at this. That that doesn't seem right was a 20 70 when I get in the year wrong was a 2016 I feel like he's older than that but I'm not positive 2016 is a 10 years ago dude. Yeah he was an NC State from 2014 to 2017 so yeah that would have been. Okay I'm all right yeah but that was like that that line had like BJ Hill and and all of them why can't I find it worst what's going on here my are all these depth charts wrong my bad and dumb these are all 2025 depth charts oh it's Google that's bad so by the job BJ Hill Justin Jones yeah well just some Jones then man that was a great legend yeah bears legend that's a great defensive line oh well.

59:08Okay so Contavia street greatie Jared Falcons legend greatie Jared along the Falcons legend Drew Dolman. And Contavia street was also with him in Atlanta so like yeah oh this is the bud 2023 Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle room which is definitely what you're trying to emulate there. Yeah that's yeah that's aspirational right. Namely great defensive line. All right okay so nothing of worth to be salvaged from this former Viking James Lynch by the way nothing of worth to be salvaged from this defensive line group at the moment. Former former Vikings defensive lineman James Lynch who's playing both edge and defensive tackle in this scheme. I still can't believe Mike Zimmer tried to turn him into a nose tackle I'm so mad about that played for I had Baylor what do you mean he's a nose tackle. Lead lead the FPS in pressures as a four I come on anyway so I will say just a football and this is like bears fans are waiting for the game when one of these defensive tackles has a big breakout and it might not never come but it could come any given week where fan and

1:00:13there's a couple of sacks it's like I there it is he has arrived or street dead a talent said Contavia street of the best training camp of any of these defensive tackles so what you see it. But you know maybe there's something there maybe this is the week or probably most likely not. Jesus yeah Jordan van der Berg's one and a half sack game is going to go crazy in 2027 he is he it people are going to go nuts for him all right linebackers so you've got notoriously overpaid teacher at words and I believe overpaid Devon Bush over hyped Devon Bush I think perpetually right over hyped for sure the pace you know it's we just got done with overpaid Traumae Edmunds so this was nice. Yeah we're we're kind of leveling off for you can't go cold turkey online back to pay you have to you know correct. So teacher at work to miss four tackles which you said was the most number of missed tackles he's had in a bear's uniform in an individual game but are we concerned.

1:01:16No Jordan Mason so like you know. I still care about. I'm not concerned specifically about the missed tackles they can just in a narrowest lane of like no he won't he won't be missing those tackles he'll be fine but I do have some concern about just the linebacker quality as a whole there like. Yeah. PFF doesn't grade blitzers you know as the past was great blitzers doesn't reflect super well because it's a small sample size but like Devon Bush might have been the worst blitzing linebacker in the NFL in week one he had a couple of embarrassing reps like he got there's one particular that went viral you know around bear's Twitter this is one of the guards just like flattening like broke his ankle he just folded backwards on himself and then laid on the ground like it was it was really rough and when you need to go yeah that went that went kind of viral I remember that now yeah. And he like look like he got hurt on the play but I don't come in back in for the next game I think you have the bruised ego that he had to just kind of take a breather quick to get it back in there but like that was rough and they've been told us all off season like oh no Devon Bush is going to be an upgrade you know he's bringing more speed to the defense and that's really what Dennis Allen wants to get faster on defense and we just didn't really see a ton of.

1:02:26Improvement at the linebacker position and then you add in the mistackle some tj Edwards you know so it's just like I don't think they're going to be this huge liability but I think bears fans were looking for them to be you know a strength of sorts it's kind of the one position that is both healthy and. Not subtracting crazy amounts of talent you know like the D line is healthy but they don't anybody good and the secondary has good players but they're all hurt but the linebacker has like Edwards and Bush are both solid NFL players not probable guys but guys who have been good in the league like that should be a reliable group that you can lean on a little bit even if they're not going to change the game and week one was not so much that but you know new to the scheme is Devon Bush and new working together and trying to feel out the space of stuff I'm willing to give them some patience but the early returns were not ideal but not. Disastery so bigger fish to fry with the problems in the secondary in the past rush right so it looks like. 60 offball linebackers took at least five past rush snaps in the NFL this past week so of those 60.

1:03:30Tj Edwards in past rush grade ranked 57th and Devon Bush ranked 53rd there you go all bud. Those are such small sample sizes are they are we talked about the zero to 100 yeah challenges there but like you can't negatively grade a pack a blitzer you know like as is the worst you can do is zero and then the zero to 100 is kind of where that's captured but like Devon Bush's blitz they're deserved a negative grade he just ran into the guy and then fell down it was. Static you he enabled the other team with how pathetic it was yes okay let's talk about the secondary which when it is fully healthy should be pretty good right that's. The you know if if we were to wave a wand and everybody in the NFL is healthy this would be a pretty good secondary yeah I think so. I It's just it's just hard because you know you haven't you actually haven't seen it you know what I mean right there are good players at every spot but like we haven't seen healthy Kyler Gordon playing with healthy Jalen Johnson since like 2023 you know like it's been it's been a minute here so like we assume that if he was healthy and J.

1:04:41And Johnson is healthy now and if Kobe Bryant was out there like that this would be a good group but I haven't seen a good secondary under Dennis Allen yet so I'm a little hesitant to just. Oh yeah yeah it's just injuries is just the problem yeah don't worry about okay so the these are the starters according to our leds correct me if I'm wrong. Tyreeks Stevenson Dylan Thinamann Cam Lewis at safety right yes because they've your woods popped up on the injured. Yeah last week and they were kind of in a battle and it was unclear who the week one starter was going to be anyway so they just Lewis got it because woods was hurt but it wasn't clear if woods was healthy if you for sure what have started but probably and he's kind of questionable for this week so far. Okay and then Jalen Johnson and Malik Mohamed Malik Mohamed the second sorry um that's the group okay how do we okay so Malik Mohamed not the world's best tackler week one right correct but like maybe the of the three corners the best in the world. And coverage in that game in that game but Jalen Johnson we assume is the best yes generally he he he had the kind of training camp of preseason that you're like oh he's going to be back in the pro well this year now okay yeah we didn't see that week one but like compared to previous years like he's had some kind of injuries and preseason and training camp that he just hasn't really look sharp really on about like he's been that he was dialed in and looked ready to go and just hasn't translated yet.

1:06:05Okay so up against some absolute scrubs in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Madison right yeah sorry. So it's tough so when you look at Justin Jefferson one of them is a linebacker that's not who I'm talking about I'm talking about the receiver. Oh okay yeah played it Ellis you I think you second to Jamar Chase you know so kind of like a unhaired chip. Play the slot always been Robin in his career. How would he use a slot only guy right so yeah. So Justin Jefferson Jordan Addison who got two targets in no yards last week. Juan Jennings who I believe got one target in no yards no targets in no yards question mark. And then we'll talk about the Titans in a second but this secondary against that group of receivers how we feeling. Not great Bob. But I'm wondering how much of a different approach Denys Allen will take this week. I think last week was definitely the we don't respect the Panthers offense kind of approach with a lot of man coverage and like he did not have

1:07:10Jalen Johnson move and travel with anybody or like go left and right I mean he was stuck on the right side the entire time and you know they didn't never swap corners or anything they just kind of stuck on sides but like when it's Justin Jefferson on the other side like presumably Kevin O'Connell could choose to just line up up against Tyree Stevenson every single play and and then if Dennis Allen is still stuck in man coverage on those plays right like you would think this week wouldn't necessitate a different approach and so it's a little bit hard for me to then weigh my level of concern because I'm not sure you know if they just zone it off and double team them all the time and make everybody else be sure like maybe I have a little bit more confidence in that but like Stevenson is definitely the top of the list of concerns out of this group even ahead of a fourth round rookie in the slot like Mohammed was had a diving interception another pass break up and just was like physical and locked in last week in a way that was impressive and he's been impressive throughout this process but if Xavier Woods starts at safety they may put Cam Lewis as the starting slot cornerback because he can really do both at a decent level so

1:08:11he did that last year right yeah yeah started games at both spots so we weren't sure like they kind of have three guys for two spots there in Lewis Mohammed and Woods and we weren't sure what combination of guys they would do but the injury decided for them last week they could switch it up or get get Lewis and Mohammed both in the slot in a lot of dying packages with woods safety so they've got some different ways to get creative but really it's Stevenson is the biggest concern there probably followed by I don't know Mohammed I mean if we assume Jalen Johnson plays better this week then you feel all right about him don't think him into rookie but he'll make rookie mistakes but he's he's fine he'll do fine yeah I did I didn't want to talk about don't think him in a little bit because he was mocked so aggressively to the Vikings in part because we didn't anticipate whether Harrison Smith would return and of course you have to replace a white safety with the white safety yes right yeah so what do we think about Dylan Thiniman as a draft prospect and has your opinion of him as a draft prospect change over the course of training camp in week one I was pretty high in him in the process and so I don't think it has changed at this point I'm gonna I'm gonna need to see more before

1:09:14the lower but like to me I was very thrilled with the bears getting him at 25 and felt like even though positional value is not ideal there like best player available on the draft board for sure and feels like the closest thing to a you know a blue chip prospect at a position that you could get it 25 in that spot so felt like all right this is better than taking a chance on one of the many defensive linemen with a bunch of questions like Thiniman felt like combination of great scheme fit great athlete and a relatively safe pick in terms of somebody that you know he's not gonna be terrible maybe he's never you know what this is going to be but like he's there's a certain baseline level of this guy can play so you're going to be fine and I think that's what we've seen so far in the preseason and now one regular season game like he's not he's not going to be defensive rookie the year because he's just dominating and making all these big plays but like generally does a good job in coverage I don't think you got tested a ton in this game you know generally comes downhill nicely in the running game missed a tackle in there like that's going to happen but like pretty normal rookie starting safety who's good enough to start but not anywhere close to the game. What you think he's going to be you know as his career goes on there was one play in the red zone or in the low red zone in the end zone where he was matched up one of them with Darren Waller the old man out of retirement.

1:10:22Oh my gosh and Mr. divorce himself. And and he divorced himself from Dylan Thiniman very nicely. And actually and caught a touchdown pass they ended up flagging it for offensive pass interference but it was kind of they like I think Dylan Thiniman initiated the contacts and then Waller kind extended just a little bit too much it was a tiki tacky flag but it did create a bunch of separation and Thiniman got beat for a touchdown on that play and I think his pf f grade no the pass interference wouldn't when they wouldn't grade him negatively if because of the penalty it's saying such that was why he got beaten coverage so it wouldn't be reflected as pf grade but like have they they could have easily not called that and he would have given up a touchdown that didn't look great but you know it's one play one physical play in the end zone like you're not panicking about the end of the beaten beat there even if it is old man Darren Waller but wasn't about speed it was about strength there so I'll give him the old man's strength to create some separation. Tory Taylor very proud of forcing a muffed punt right?

1:11:22Yeah he's the weapon that was once promised. No he's not. Absolutely not. I will refuse I refuse as much. It's such a and the other thing about that is like we had this sort of talking out of both sides of their mouth thing with Ryan Poles. It was like they drafted Tory Taylor. It's like he's going to be such a weapon and then when they drafted Caleb Williams first like when they drafted Tory Caleb Williams texted Tory Taylor and said, Hey, we're not going to be needing you much with me at quarterbacks. So get ready to you know get ready to watch games from the sideline because we're going to be so good. It's like, well, wait a minute. Like if you're going to be so good with the quarterback, they don't need the punter. Then why would you need to draft the punter to be the weapon when you're you know, just never quite added up. And so but like we're getting to that point where in this game, they didn't the Caleb was more right. Like they didn't need him to punch much in this game. And so he can't be that effective of a weapon. But yeah, you know, the banana ball thing was cool and you know, essentially he like kicks the ball in a way that makes it spin weird. And you combine that with you know, weird wind stuff.

1:12:24It's hard to track in the air and Jimmy Horner whoever was from the Panthers didn't track it very well and muffed it and then got cut this week because he also messed up some plays in offense. So Tory Taylor is going to want to hype for that. He definitely has gotten a little bit better each year. You know, a little more consistent on the distance in the placement. But like has still come nowhere close to being worth a fourth round draft pick. Yeah, fair enough. Cairo Santos was pretty good. No complaints. Some he had two kickoffs short of the landing zone. Oh, Jesus. And like, what the hell? Yeah, it's like I think he's trying to do that like kind of that knuckleball kick thing too that people do on kickoffs. Right. Like you want you want like a really long hang time, but you want the ball to land at like the one of the two to force a return. And okay, that's okay. So he kind of screwed that up a couple of times. Like the Bears had like 12 penalties in that game. But two of them were Cairo Santos creaking short of the thing. So like, and that's always been a complaint with him as a few goal kicker. He's like, he doesn't have a ton of the power on the back. And he can't do the 60 yarder. Yeah.

1:13:24So there's limitations there. But again, they weren't kicking too many field goals last week and he hits the extra points. So in theory, you're fine. Yeah, he's great in the hell league for not missing those extra points. Yes. Okay. I like also rookie long snapper so far so good. Oh, yeah. That's right. Bo Gardner from Georgia. Okay. So we talked a lot about the bad matchups for the Bears. We didn't mention that like, Hey, we don't know who's playing quarterback for the Vikings. It's probably Carson, but it could be Kyler. We're still kind of waiting to see into the offensive out. And we don't have Jordan Mason who I think is pretty clearly the better running back. And so the offensive output is maybe not going to be as high as has been implied by our conversation. But I am really excited about the offense defense matchup on the other side when the Bears are on offense. The Vikings are on defense. The over under is 45 just a little lower than I expected. And then I was like, Oh, yeah, the Vikings might be starting to back up in the Vikings, I believe, our favorite question mark.

1:14:25No, bears are here by three and a half. Yeah, yeah, yeah, right. It's open to like five and a half. And then I saw it trickle the four and a half. And I think it might be done with three and a half. Yeah, it's three and a half now. It depends on the book. Yeah. Some of these books are at four and a half. Okay. So with all that in mind, who are you predicting the win? By how much? I don't feel good about this game. I don't know that each. Yeah. You know, I felt a lot better about going into the Carolina game. Because I talked to some Bozo over at lockdown Vikings about this the other day. Like some idiot. It's this feels like the kind of game where like, you know, Ben Johnson's going to get a couple of his plays in Brian, Brian Forer is going to get a couple of his licks in. Like that, that'll be not necessarily a 50, 50 tie, but like we kind of know that right. And either one of those guys is going to completely figure out the other one and dominate in that side of the ball. So then for me, the difference maker in this game is Dennis Allen's defense versus whatever the Vikings got a quarterback. And there's so much volatility there that like, you know, Carson Wentz could have a great

1:15:28game and torch this bear secondary or Kyler Murray could be back and continue where he started the first game and play really poorly and give the bears some turnovers. And it's like, there's so much. There's such a wide range of outcomes in this game that are hard for me to predict. But I do feel like, you know, I find myself saying, I trust Kevin O'Connell and Brian Forer as a combination a little bit more than I trust Ben Johnson and Dennis Allen as a combination right now. And not to just say just the coaches, but like also the way that their units have been performing, right? Like, I don't know. There's kind of mixed feelings on Dennis out at this point. But like, I think the bears question marks on defense are larger than the Vikings question marks on offense because I trust that Kevin O'Connell can kind of make it work when stuff's not right on offense. And I haven't quite seen Dennis Allen be able to fix things on the fly in a way that like he's always had good excuses or explanations as to why it's not going so well. But like, hasn't been able to make chicken salad out of chicken shit the way that Kevin O'Connell has with his offense sometimes.

1:16:29So that's what scares me the most. I will need then Ben Johnson to be enough better than Brian Flores's defense to overcome where Kevin O'Connell's offense might still be enough better than Dennis Allen's defense. And that's tricky for me. But I can't imagine a Vikings team with Kyler Murray and Carson went starting to and O. So that's kind of it also. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't know. I because like the bears are favored and I find myself feeling like they'll find some way to hold on. But I think that's about PTSD from week one last year when JJ McCarthy went full number nine and had 21 points in the fourth quarter in one that game. So I'm very reluctantly picking the bears, but not with a lot of confidence. Oh, it's like a head versus heart thing. It sounds like I think so. I interestingly, the Vikings fan base does not have near the confidence in Kevin O'Connell's offensive acumen that you do. I'm probably closer to you than I am to that general feeling, but it's kind of funny hearing it on the other side. Cool. I mean, it's not just Kevin O'Connell, but it's Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J.

1:17:32Hockinson, right? Like it's good, good play collar with some real weapons, too. Like that's real weapons. Yeah. Running back questions and some, some offensive lines questions here and there, but generally like good enough offensive line, good, you know, more than good enough weapons. So, you know, when it's got the job done last week and, you know, I think in theory, he could do it again. Yeah. And the packers aren't like I hate to say this. They're not bad. Yeah. Plus, hey, the Vikings are currently leading the division. They're number one in the division. So that's true. Yeah, because point differential is not the first type breaker. It turns out. Yeah, division record, right? Yeah. Yeah. Cool. So, where can people find you? Generally, under any manhole cover in your community, any sort of great. You digging around in there. That's for that. You can hear me five days a week on the Lockdown Bears podcast or as you mentioned at the top, I'm on Twitter at Cox Sports One. I always say it's like Fox Sports One, but with a C.

1:18:34Yeah, it is one of my favorite Twitter handles. I did resist saying that for the entire episode, which I think I should be proud of, because I almost say it right away all the time. You always steal my thunder on that every single time. Yeah. And clean it up now. I'm waiting the whole episode to get my chance to say the tagline. Oh, here we go. It's my slogan like Fox Sports One with a C. And finally, finally, they get to get it out. Yeah. It's not that good of a tagline. I think letting people come to the conclusion is a little bit better. Yeah, it's like, oh, well, I've lived with my last name long enough to know that sometimes it's important to clarify the exact word I'm saying there. Yeah, like penis, Cox. Yeah. And especially when you make it a sport, that makes it more challenging. So I'm like, you know, like Fox, with the X, you can't mix that one up. All right, man. Thanks for coming on and taking my views. I don't feel like I had a choice, but thank you. You didn't, but I, you know, I think from an etiquette perspective, I should still thank

1:19:35you. It's the illusion of choice to the audience, right? The audience. Yeah, exactly. You know, it's, it's nice for the audience to believe that we're all friends and enjoy each other's company. Oh, I would love to live in that fairy tale. All right, man, peace out. Of course. All right, we're back. And let's go to the mailbag. The first question is from Leon who asks, what is the over under on how many times Justin Jefferson slips on the grass? So at some point, I assume he's going to learn about cleats. So there is all, when you're calculating this over under, you do have to wonder if there is the possibility that Kevin O'Connell has finally gotten through to him and is like, Hey, you got to wear the longer cleats this time. I swear to God. So that's that's always on the table is that we could end up at zero. That's always on the table. But I would say on broadcast, I'd say the over under is two and a half, I want to say,

1:20:35what is that? How does that sound? It sounds good. I want to say that by game time it might get pushed up to three and a half. I think you think the market will move. Yeah, yeah. I think enough action on the lower end, forgetting that he does these things often. So I think it's possible. Also, can you explain the grammar behind the popular podcast phrase at the end of shows for X, I'm Y. I hear it all the time, but it's never made sense to me. So okay. And as somebody who's been doing this for a decade, it's a really natural way to end. What's wrong with that? Okay, so this is emerging from the history of broadcast going all the way back to radio, also television, but going before television to radio where people would say reporting for, I don't know, NPR, right? Reporting for NPR, I'm, I reglass.

1:21:38That's one of the NPR guys, right? Yes. And, and then it got shortened to instead of reporting for its for NPR, I'm I reglass. Instead of like this is I reglass reporting for NPR. And so after like decades of that, you just kind of drop some of these things, like that's how a lot of language works is that as a common phrase, you know, continues to move through language, the more complex or more difficult parts of the stuff that takes a little bit more effort gets dropped, that happens a lot. And so you say four blank, I'm why. What's interesting is that we have a name for this is called a fronted adjunct. So to modify or move to the front of the sentence, that does not modify the subject based on the dependent clause. So the best way to put this is to come up with the opposite example. So for breakfast, I'm having eggs is not a fronted adjunct, but it is that construction, right? So four X, Y, right? And the eggs are describing the type of breakfast that you're having.

1:22:43I'm having eggs for breakfast or for breakfast. I'm having eggs both are grammatically correct, you know, to the degree that we believe in grammatically correct, both are grammatically correct constructions. You know, it references the eggs that you're having for breakfast. And so this one, this is a way to reference a modifier that is implied and has been dropped. And because it is evolved even further past that, sometimes people will do it for the other broadcast person instead of for the company that they're doing it for. So instead of four NPR, I'm Ira Glass, you could say for the other person on the so for Michael Barbaro, I'm Ira Glass. And it's just like the way that that kind of moves over the decades for how that construction works means that sometimes now instead of the original grammatical meaning where you've dropped the word I am reporting for, right? You now are just saying for blank, I'm Y, right? And it just,

1:23:48it ends up kind of losing its formal meaning and it just is now the more informal kind of, hey, this is the word order for how we are ending things and this is our sign off. Yeah. In case you were curious, this will not be a long bail bag, but it will be an informative one. So you'll get that. We may have had our limit to information. We'll see. Yeah. Osman asks over under seven games until a Brosmer appearance. I like the idea that you don't do gambling or fantasy on the other podcast that you are regularly on. A little bit. Well, I'm referring to After Dark as a live stream now. Yeah, that's because it's been proven that way in the YouTube like algorithm. So I'm just, but you're not doing any, but the first two questions we've had on here are, we'll immediately go into gambling. Yeah.

1:24:50Later we'll talk about how you're you're kicker missed to, missed a kick in the, in the bills game too. We don't, we don't need to talk about any of that. I disagree, but let's, let's go on here. So over under seven games until Brosmer. I'm actually going to take the under on this because Kyler is I think going to play at least four more games, right, including potentially even this game, right? Because he's kind of moving pretty quickly through the concussion protocol. It seems like. So if he plays at least four more games, that leaves us with just what, because that would be five, right? That would leave us with just 12 games by which we can see a Brosmer appearance. And remember, he is QB4. Obviously, the Vikings have gotten to the point many times. Actually, where they've gotten down to QB4 or QB6, right? We all remember Joshua Dobbs. So like, I'm not saying it's impossible, but I'm saying from an odds perspective, right? You would need Kyler Murray to go down again, which again, that's, you know, on the table, you need Carson Wentz to go down again, which, you know,

1:25:55he's not the healthiest duck, right? Like he could, he could take one or two games, but the likelihood is that he'll take three or four games. And then you need JJ McCarthy to go down one more time. And in that period of time, you need Kyler to not come back and Carson to not come back. And I think the thing about that is the reason we got down to to Brosmer time last time is because he was QB3, not QB4. And McCarthy just like wouldn't return when he was kind of more formally understood to be healthy, whereas I think Kyler would. So I'm going to take the, the over on seven games, because I think we're, I think the most likely scenario was like 12 or 13 games, not seven. Yeah. Somebody else needs on McCarthy. And then that'll just take him out for minutes. Right now you've got new QB3 and into the go for quarterback, that's fair. Yeah, that's that's how that should work anyway. Let's go to Kenneth Allen who asks, what can we really expect to learn from Sunday's game? Presumably, we don't expect to learn much

1:26:59about this, the real Vikings offense with Wentz and given Ben Johnson's record against Flores, we won't learn much about the Vikings defense overall. So what do we expect to glean? So I talked a little bit about this on the live stream. I don't think we should think of this as Ben Johnson's record against Flores. So he's like five in one, right? There's not offensive coordinator and head coach against the Brian Flores defense. But like the thing is, as a bear's head coach, he's one in one and in both games, the defense was good. I looked at all 52 games since 2023 where Ben Johnson was a coordinator or head coach. And of those 52 games, the two games against the bear's ranked eighth and ninth in best defensive performances. So I'm not, I don't think that there's actually anything here. I think this is just like, hey, when Ben Johnson was on the lines, the lines were really good. That's what it was. And I think Jerichoff just kind of understands the Flores defense better than most quarterbacks do. And Caleb Williams

1:28:00right now might be on, didn't one week, right? Might be on an MVP trajectory. He just moved to second place in MVP odds. And so there's some kind of, you know, we talked about this with Lauren, but there's some kind of like, hey, he that second half of the season that he had last year is translating into so you could be a very good quarterback. But that's not the same thing as doing well, specifically, he gets the Brian Flores defense. We've seen a lot of good quarterbacks or quarterbacks were having good years, just short circuit against Brian Flores, right? So this isn't to say anything about Caleb Williams's quality, but rather that this seems to be a unique quality of Jerichoff. And therefore, not something I would kind of transpose on to Ben Johnson. And whether or not that, you know, supposition is correct, these something will learn, right? Because if Ben Johnson starts alighting the world on fire, again, it's Brian Flores, then I think we can more substantially say, okay, I think he has figured out Brian Flores.

1:29:00So that's something to kind of keep in mind. Other than that, what do we expect to glean? I want to learn more about how many snaps, Dominique Orange is going to play. I want to see if Donovan Jackson's really good game, you know, is going to translate moving forward again. This is against a pretty weak defensive line. So it's not going to tell us much in our respect, but it's a little bit. I want to see if we can get Jordan Addison receptions. It feels important. And I think defensively, I want to see what, you know, the safety slash nickel corner situation is. Like if we're going to see, we're going to continue to see James Peter take a lot of snaps as a nickel corner. If we're not going to see a bunch of dime, the Bears do have, you know, a reason to run a lot of two tight ends. So we may not see a ton of dime, but that does seem like you could drop Josh Mattelis into the box and have J-word play high safety or theodex and I guess, and and have Josh Patelis up against the tight end, which seems like a better role for him than single hired or two high safety. So I don't know. There's a lot of things that we can

1:30:04learn, even though there's a good chance that the quarterback is not going to be the one that's running the offense that, you know, we expect the Vikings offense to run. Let's, let's go off the rails here. Robert Kraft has a brilliant new strategy to avoid facing the Texans defense again in the playoffs. Just ban them from performing from my performing at your let's say, who can the Wilf's ban and on what grounds to ensure the Vikings get their own happy ending? Off the rails fast. All right. Well, if we can just like, he had not to get political on the show, but if we could just like make up what anti-semitism is, if we could just like say a thing as anti-semitism, the Wilf's can just call Ben Johnson anti-semitic, right? Like they could just do that. And now the Bears can't play in the Viking stadium. So that's like, that's going to solve half of your Bears problems right there. Solves, solves half of your Bears problems. Easy done. So that's, you know, that's something to do. Other than that, you don't really have to worry about their

1:31:08Rogers. They just dumpster Jordan love. Yeah. Again, I am concerned about Jared Goff, right? So probably ban Jared Goff any number of reasons. Actually, find something that Ryan Gossling did in a movie that was objectionable and just accused Jared Goff of doing that. I don't think anyone's been able to tell his difference. Yes. Actually, yes. It was either him or that quarterback from the Jared Goff video. Yeah. We use that triode college. Yeah. Like Riverside Community College. Like that. Yeah. Yeah. That's it was him. Love our bullshit, we've asked for the North code concussion corner. A corner that we spend too much time in and not a lot of light. Kyler might actually play. I've learned in the past week that fencing reactions don't actually tie into the severity of concussions. What do you know about concussions? Is there any chance he's 100% is this a good idea? Once again, not a doctor. I don't know why I have to keep saying

1:32:09that on this podcast, but yeah, not a doctor. If I was a doctor, I probably wouldn't have been a neurologist. Okay. So there has been kind of a study going around that I've seen a little bit of Viking's Twitter that was produced by Pitt and they worked with the NFL to grab the data in that study. It was like published a class year. In that study, they looked through all the NFL injury records. They looked at the broadcast footage of a player, you know, sustaining that concussion and so they classified, you know, fencing response, no fencing response. And there was like a two to one ratio of people who had exhibited that fencing response in the one part of the two to one ratio. And then people who hadn't. And in it, they found that was it the ones with a fencing response, was they were out for 10 days on average and the ones without were nine days, which does not meet the significance threshold to say that there's any meaningful difference. I was initially not

1:33:14that impressed to the study because the sample size is actually extraordinary. I was like 57 players, right? And the outcome that I read in the abstract is like pretty imprecise, right? It's just like clear to play it, right? We don't get like how quickly a player moves from phase one to phase two or whatever, right? We don't get access to like cognitive scores and stuff like that. It turns out the study itself, so the abstract didn't, but the study itself did go into cognitive scores, balance scores, etc. And found that they didn't differ between the two groups. So that is a little bit more meaningful that we now have three outcomes that conclude in the same direction, even with a small sample that does kind of increase the strength of it. So things like symptom scores, right? They don't just don't change between the two groups, but it's still a very small sample. And there's other stuff out there that suggests that the severity of a traumatic

1:34:18brain injury of which concussion is a type does increase with an observed fencing response? The problem is in order for someone to get diagnosed with a concussion, an independent neurologist has to signal down that this is a potential concussion. Fencing response is always going to do that. Any other response that does not include, I think it's called tonic posturing that doesn't include that is likely just so significant that it's very clearly a severe injury. So it could be the case that two identical traumatic head injuries, one that produces a fencing response, one that does not, it could be the case that one that produces a fencing response. Is in fact more severe, but there's such a significant selection bias for the ones that are not fencing responses that we only identify the most severe ones to test for concussions, right? So was that tell us about Kyler specifically? She would be worried if he's cleared.

1:35:21No, because this is part of the selection, right? So I would say that there's an optical problem with Kyler playing and then receiving another injury potentially. But medically it does not seem as if we have any evidence to suggest that there would be a problem based off of what I know. I cannot believe people ask me these questions. Oh, you know, we'll go to the next thing then if you're wondering about people, what would you worry about people asking you these sorts of things? For the Norse code morality corner. Oh god, if you recently penned an article to quote, keep gambling. I didn't pen the article. Luke wrote the article. I just edited it. Editing notes, editor notes, I should count some form of writing. But the editor note actually says this is not gambling. This is really important. Really important that I wasn't saying gambling is good. I was saying playing favorable odds is

1:36:26good, which is different than gambling. There's a whole piece about it about card counting. So your most recent podcast episode description requested Jordan love to perform sexual acts on your usually. I don't know what that means. We went, we just before the show, we went through a bunch of the most recent podcasts I've been on in the episode descriptions. I have no idea what you're referring to. Nightly, your productions promote evil companies like Kelsey and Better Health. No comment. You reposted some of Pat McAfee's music. Again, I to say that I didn't even think this was real. I thought it was a satire of Pat McAfee's music. I later learned that actually no it wasn't. But it was a criticism. You can quote a thing that you're criticizing and not be subject to the criticism. That is possible. I am starting to really worry about your mental health. Are they? It seems now, week by week, your debauchery gets more deranged and degenerate. That's not a question. More comment than a question. That was always dusty's complaint. Yeah.

1:37:29James, correct me from wrong. Lavar Bolshreef has been a long, long time listener. Correct. Correct. So I don't know why right now, Lavar Bolshreef has just begun to worry about my mental health. There has been a long track record of the things I've done and said on this podcast, which of course I don't remember, but have gone for a long period of time. That would suggest that my mental health has not been good ever since I've started following the Vikings, which one could say there's causality there. I'm not again a doctor. So I can't say. But you're starting to worry. Come on, man. This is not news. This is not a situation where you need to go through several seasons to pick out the little things. This isn't like you're going through all the little clues, right? Like you're trying to piece together these puzzles and you're like Sherlock and you're putting

1:38:30together this elaborate story. Mr. Snowman, the clues were right there. I put it all together for you. There is nothing Sherlocked about this. No one, Kayla, asks for a reef's opera corner. I know that a reef likes numbers far more than narrative, but for the sake of argument, at what point of the ring cycle, do we find the 2026 Vikings? Okay. So I got a comment on Blue Sky who's like, hey, I've never ridged your work before, but like, I don't think sports writing should be an ACT. He said story, probably. So he means like a word problem. I like to think of football as America's ring cycle, something more shake-spirion. And this was on Blue Sky. And on Blue Sky, I was a little kinder to this person in text that I was thinking in my brain, right? Because I'm just thinking like, hey, man, maybe my writing is just not for you, but also I very clearly am like writing a story and the

1:39:34numbers are just like part of the story and not like so and so had so many pressures. That is the story of the game. As for the where in the ring cycle, do we find the 2026 Vikings? I'd say probably the Valkyrie, right? So the Valkyrie was, now I'm going to be cancelled for citing a Nazi. So Robert Wagner's Valkyrie, or Richard Wagner's Robert, Richard Wagner's Valkyrie was the third one produced, but it should be second in the ring cycle. I don't know that much about opera. If I'm being honest, I know this is a huge shock. And so in this one, so this is like all based on Norse mythology, right? In this one, the twins separate and then meet and fall in love and

1:40:36then the gods are angry at that because I mean, this has like always happened to mythology. We're like siblings like fall in love and then gods hate it for the obvious societal reasons of why you discourage this kind of relationship. And then the couple is like saved by the Valkyrie who, as a result faces the God's retribution. We are at the moment where the Vikings are committing, and we don't know what it is yet, some kind of unspeakable sin, they will be punished for it. The Vikings will get out of that punishment through some heroic act. And as a result, they will face an even greater punishment, presumably around week 17, week 18. Well, good. We've got some time. Yeah. Fantastic. Kyle Segal asks, since a reef who eats hot dogs with ketchup is replacing James with known mayo, hater Drew McGarry, I also don't like mayo. What the? Yeah, it's a one for one. This is bad take. What absolutely awful mustard takes, are they going

1:41:41to unleash it? Okay. Okay. So for the longest time, like, this is one of those things where I found out all at once that people make fun of people who put ketchup on hot dogs. I just like found out one day and then like a bunch of people are like, oh, gross. And I was like, what? So yeah, I put ketchup on hot dogs. I don't put them on like brats or other sausages, just hot dogs. And I think that's fine. I'm not going to feel like I need to be defensive about this. This is normal. I think that hot dogs, I mean, they're very salty and fatty. So having something kind of vinaigret like ketchup is helpful and it can catch it's a little sweet. It's fine. Don't worry about it. I also like hot dogs with other toppings. I think Diced raw onions. Fantastic. I think certain types of mustard fantastic. I'm not. So this is where we might get some awful mustard takes. I'm not a huge bright yellow, French's mustard guy. I don't hate it. And on sandwiches, I can like it a lot, right? Especially with mayo. Mayo is good. It turns out, in my opinion.

1:42:45But I love love brown mustard. I love them so much, dude. They're so good. One Christmas, my brother and my then girlfriend, we all made a bunch of different musters to bring to my brother's in laws for Christmas. And they were like various spice levels. And you can when you make mustard, you can control the spice level by like when you decide to add the water and the acid to activate the compounds in the mustard. Until you had a bunch of different flavor profiles and a bunch of different heat levels, it was awesome. So I love mustard. I just the bright yellow, French's mustard has limited applications or some types of applications. I like it, but I much rather and this might be the take that is the most controversial. I'd much rather have brown mustard or or even and I know this is like weird, like a Dijon or something like that on a hot dog than the bright yellow that is pretty classic and visually very appealing.

1:43:47Stoneground is very good. Incredible. Yeah. It oddly enough, it took for us to go to New York before I've like really embraced the mustard on a hot dog thing because like anywhere you went to New York, it was like, oh, there's a hot dog vendor out here. You know, I am, I could actually go for it. I could go for a dog right now. This reminds me of one of my favorite viral tweets, which it's like from 2018, but it's like how couples argue today, wife, cool. How there's four musters in the fridge in 2018 and none go with my sandwich, normal world husband. Wow, it's almost like those were my dipping musters, not meant to go and say which is, but I'll go off. Outstanding, dude. Oh, ridiculous. Finally, Damien Bolshary Fask, which of Ed Sheeran's support acts, will you be most disappointed not to get to see to perform? I'm going to go with his band. Great week for for Mr. Sheeran. Yeah, big time losses for Sheerheads. Let's go with that one.

1:44:55Yeah. Okay. So people who don't know, this is the Robert Kraft reference from earlier, right? Maccomor. Okay. One of the things that's been extremely funny about all of this is that a bunch of the tweets that are like, oh my god, Maccomor is such like a principled artist. It's so cool. His music sucks, but it's so cool how good of a guy he is. I saw a tweet that was like, this is the first time I've had to separate the art from the artist because the artist was good. Incredible stuff. But yeah, so like Maccomor dropped in the tour. So Ed Sheeran loses, so people are like, hey, Ed Sheeran, are you okay with Maccomor being forced off the tour? And he basically says, hey, I don't get into politics. I choose to think of my music as an escape from that kind of stuff. And so I'm just not going to take a stance or whatever. And then people like, well, I mean, this is like kind of the moral issue of the moment. Please do so. You could

1:45:59force the issue by refusing to perform. And he said, no, I can't do that because all the people on the tour that rely on me, especially the band that's with me, they wouldn't get paid if I had refused to do the tour like they rely on me. And the band was like, no, FU actually, we're not performing. And like the three other opening acts all refuse to perform. And the thing is, Ed Sheeran probably shouldn't have seen this coming because they're all Irish. And the Irish are famously very pro-Palestinian. So like good luck. Anyway, it's his band, which I think is pronounced yoga. It's Irish. There could be a pronunciation I'm missing here. I originally when I was trying to figure out who it was before I googled it, I was like, is it the Bokes, which is an Irish thing I assume in music. But not the name of Ed Sheeran's backing band. Yeah. Which is a thing that you now know as a listener. And I hope your life is better for it. That is going to be it for this episode of Norse code.

1:47:05We hope you have enjoyed it. We'll be back on Monday to discuss hopefully the victory over the bears. A reef, what do you have to plug? So unfortunately, there is that Luke article about Brian Flores versus Matt LaFour breaks down kind of the approach, the way that the blitzes are designed and stuff like that. It's pretty good. There's also a story about Luke's brother-in-law, which is kind of funny. In that piece, that's over at Wide Left. I also have a piece comparing Brian Flores to a card counter, not to a gambler. That piece is over at Wide Left. And we've got peace. So if you wanted to learn more about this RoboCraft stuff, Ben Natan, who is alive, pitched me a story on writing about RoboCraft. And so we hashed it out. He's going to write the story about RoboCraft and the way the NFL interacts with what I called the moral issue of the moment, which is not meant to dismiss it, but is very clearly the biggest political moral stance that people are taking at the moment. And so we're writing about because the NFL is involved.

1:48:08So that's going to be it for this episode of Norse code. We hope you have enjoyed it. We'll be back on Monday. So 4x, I'm Y. And we're... You know what? I'm not even going to go with nothing else. We'll see you next week. Norse code is the largest and only division of Norse code LLC. You can find Norse code on the Daily Norseman, espnation's Vikings blog at dailynorsman.com. You can also find it on iTunes, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify, Google Play, and wherever Find Podcasts are aggregated. Our Vikings blogger extraordinaire and generally useful human is Reef-a-San of... Why is so sad? And he can be found on Twitter at Reef-a-San NFL. I'm your producer and host and my name is James Fogashnik. You can find me at these shows official Twitter feed at Norse code DN or at my personal account at Big Mono. If you'd like to donate a few bucks to the show, you can do so in a couple of different ways. You can go to patreon.com slash Norse code and donate there. For $3.50

1:49:12a month, you get bonus material and more. You can also go to PayPal.amie slash Norse code for a one-time donation or you can go to Norsecode.threadless.com and pick up some Norse code merch. Any questions or comments that cannot fit in a tweet can be sent to Norse code podcast at gmail.com. On behalf of the Norse code staff, we thank you so much for listening.