EU offers Canada 'associate membership.' What does Ottawa want?

0:00Your path to pharmacy can be closer than you think. West Coast University's hybrid doctor of pharmacy program can be completed in as little as 33 months, and no bachelor's degree is required to apply. If you've started pharmacy coursework elsewhere, WCU may accept eligible transfer credits to help students keep moving forward. Learn online, train hands-on at our Center for Graduate Studies in Los Angeles, and prepare for real-world pharmacy practice. West Coast University, as real as it gets, visit westcoastuniversity.edu. WCU cannot guarantee employment. This is a CBC podcast. The European Union makes a big offer to deepen ties with Canada, as we learn more about the potential costs of severing ties between Alberta and Canada, and conservatives gather in British Columbia to gear up for Parliament's return. It's Wednesday, September 16th. I'm David Cochran, the Power and Politics Podcast, starts now.

1:04We begin with the European Union's special offer to Canada to become the first ever associate member of that multinational block, but Canada says it's not sold on that title. We are not looking to be a member of the European Union because that is a sovereignty issue, and people give up certain portions of their sovereignty. I think we're still a ways away from actually landing on what we think is the best way to describe it, but what we're focused on is actually driving results in the specific sectors that we're actually focused on, and eventually we'll get to the issue of what's the best way to actually describe it. In the idea of associate membership, we're not there. It's an opportunity for us to talk about that, but we're really much more focused on getting concrete results. But at the end of the day, what we are looking to do is get as close as we possibly can in manner that's going to actually strengthen all of our respective countries without giving up significant chunks of sovereignty. For more on this, I'm joined now by former Canadian ambassador to France in Germany, and of course a former cabinet minister and former special envoy to the EU, Stefan Dianne.

2:05He's now a diplomat in residence at the University of Montreal. Mr. Dianne, with that resume, you're the perfect person I think to have with us today. Thank you so much for your time. Thank you David. Thank you for the invitation. Ursula von der Leyen says she wants Canada to become an associate member, Canada downplaying the semantics on that, but they are looking for an alliance in deeper ties. I mean, what could this be and does the language really matter here? Yes, I think Madame von der Leyen did what we may call a friendly exaggeration. Exaggeration because it's not a level that it's clear and it's not a level that Canada and it seems the leaders of the member states were ready to endorse. When after that the Prime Minister Karni met the president of the EU parliament, they have been very careful facing the media to avoid the expression of associate member. It's an exaggeration, but it's a friendly one because it shows how much she's willing to have

3:09closed links with us. The other way around would have been a problem. She would have been a bit cold with our Prime Minister. To the contrary, she was too enthusiastic in some ways, but indeed, as the ambassador has said, Mr. Wilkinson, the key point now is to stop to only talk and to come with declarations and to have concrete results in terms of the investments, contracts, corporations, scientific corporations, military corporations. We have so much to do and so tools in our hands. We may have a very great relationship between the EU and Canada. Well, it seems there is certainly an appetite to deepen ties on a whole bunch of levels, on defense, on AI, on quantum, and just general trade. But Germany pushed back against the idea of associate membership as a name, there's reporting in Politico, that a lot of the other countries had no idea. Ursula von Erlein was going to do this. What is the ambition here? Do you think

4:16on the European side? Is this designed to put some sort of pressure on people by doing it in a public way to accept this idea or where do you think it goes? No, I don't think she wants this idea to impose the idea, but she certainly wants, from the alien, to give the message to her own bureaucracy, own people, that the next summit will have October 29 and 30th in Canada, EU-Canada summit, cannot be business as usual. We need to have something strong. And for that, we should stop to write kind of a draft of communiques that are usual. We will continue to continue. This kind of communiques that nobody reads, even new to journalists, is not what we want. We want concrete results. We have already a very compelling partnership between the EU and Canada that has been signed in June 2025 in Brussels, year after we need to take stock of

5:18improvement that happened, the results, and to go much further in the years to come. And to do it not only because we dislike what President Trump is doing both side of the Atlantic, to do it for a long hold. Canada and the EU need to be very strong partners. And the message we receive from the EU, whatever the name they use, is Canada has a special country for them. It's not an alliance among others. They need a strong relationship with us and we need the same. Well, certainly the Canadian government seems to prefer the term alliance in whatever form it is, rather than membership, because of what that denotes in terms of the sovereignty issue of Canada. Even if you were to get full access to the market, beyond what's even there under the Canada Europe Trade Agreement, which isn't still fully implemented, you can't join the European Union and have no voting rights, so you'd have to change your regulations and just take the rules that Brussels would determine you have to comply with, which is obviously a non-starter.

6:19So how far do you think Canada can go on moving past the free trade benefits of the CEDA agreement in something like this? What sort of deeper economic ties can there be? Yes, I fully agree with the first part of your remarks. Canada doesn't want to transfer sovereignty with a federal or provincial to Brussels. That's something will not happen. And you cannot give to Canada all the advantages of the EU without the constraints, because the EU members would say Sunfair for us. So it's that will not happen. What need to happen is the fact that, for example, we have only 8% of our trade with the EU today. It must be much more than that. You cannot replace the US for us. The US, as the Prime Minister has said, will remain on main partner. But the EU will be key for us to succeed in a diversification strategy to be less dependent on the United States. We'll need to be stronger with the Asia, Africa, Latin America,

7:23in the least. But Europe is key. It's the second biggest economy of the world. It's a democracy. We are the most European, non-Uapian countries. I think it's very true. And now we need to make it concrete, concrete results. Another example is critical minerals. For years, each time we meet with Europeans, whether the EU, whether the member states, we say we need to work on critical minerals. Now we need to see the result. We need to see investments coming big time in Canada from Germany, France, and other European countries. To be sure that the resource will reach the market, including the European market. It's interesting, Mr. Dion, because in the days leading up to this, Canadian officials were briefing reporters saying we're not interested in membership, we're not seeking membership, not even associate membership. And then Ursula von der Leyen does what she did today. The Prime Minister is going to give a speech at that same podium tomorrow. I mean, what do you expect him to say? Does he need to clean this up or clear this up in some way? What's your expectation for tomorrow? I'm not sure he will have to address the issue.

8:27You will decide what he wants to say, but if I was him, I will not say we don't want to be an associate member. He would not mention it. He will continue to speak about unique alliance, and he would give pre-concrete results he is expecting. I think he will insist put the pressure on the EU to deliver a very strong summit in a couple of weeks from now, at the end of October. I think it will be a strategy of the Prime Minister. I don't think he will try to embarrass von der Leyen for her enthusiastic and friendly exaggeration. Okay, so just as a final point, this summit, the Canada EU summit at the end of October, where you are right now, in Montreal, is where I understand it's going to be held. If you look at the range of issues and the ambition of a deepening alliance, and you look at how many other things are on the go, and how the European Union maybe moves at a certain speed, how confident are you? This can all be cleared up by the end of October. Do you think there is something truly deliverable in that timeframe, or is this more of a much longer

9:30term project? Yes, I don't think the fact that you mentioned it will hurt the result. To the contrary, push Europeans to be very serious in their dealings with us. When our government is saying we want this agreement on the digital policy, for example, I think now the EU bureaucrats that are speaking about our bureaucrats, it's at this level now, we'll understand it's not a summit as the orders. von der Leyen has been briefly about what she expect. Maybe she did not choose the right words, but it's a good wake-up call for everyone. We want results in a couple of weeks from now. That will be key. It's a pressure to deliver for the EU and for Canada. Stefan Dianne, former ambassador, former special envoy to the European Union, former Cabinet Minister, thank you, sir, we appreciate your time. Thanks for giving us some of it today. It was a great pleasure. Okay, we're going to turn now to Washington, where there's backlash over Canada's plan to deepen ties with Europe. At least one U.S. lawmaker is warning it will

10:32hurt the chances of a new Canada-US trade deal. On Capitol Hill, there's growing frustration with the escalating tensions between Canada and the U.S. and new efforts to end the trade war. The CBC's Katie Simpson joins us now from Washington with more. So Katie, you're chasing people all over Capitol Hill. You found some American lawmakers paying close attention to the Prime Minister's trip to Europe. That's what we do, David, if we're not, got on Capitol Hill, pestering people than what am I even doing? So yeah, this is an opportunity for us to actually ask some questions of American lawmakers because they've been away and they're going away again after this week to get some reaction to the escalating tensions between Canada and the United States and all of the developments that have happened since those trade talks broke down last month. We spoke with Senator Susan Collins. She is a Republican. She is one of the loudest anti-teriffs sort of members of the Republican Party, particularly because her state main is

11:32deeply affected, jobs are deeply affected by the tariffs and the trade war, and she is running in a really tight reelection race. And so it is something that sort of she has been at the forefront of in terms of trying to use her voice to push back against the Trump administration when it comes to tariffs. But instead of sort of attacking the Trump administration in this trade war, she had a warning for Ottawa when it comes to looking to develop relationships elsewhere. I believe that both Canada and the United States should return to the bargaining table. I do not support this tariff war. Canada is not China. It's our close friend, our ally, and our neighbor. And we should remember that. I do think it was unfortunate that Canada is turning to the European Union. That doesn't help rebuild the good relationship that we once have,

12:35and that I want us to have again. Does that make it harder to get back to the negotiating table with Canada turning to Europe? Yes, I think it does. So this reinforces a couple of things, David. One, Americans are paying attention to what is going on with Mark Carney on this trip abroad. And two, on Capitol Hill, we are hearing a lot of frustration from lawmakers when it comes to the ongoing tensions in the trade war. Okay, interesting that talking to Europe makes it harder, but it's weird times. What else did you learn on Capitol Hill today, Katie? Well, we certainly had a lot of pushback when it came to the overall tariff agenda that's aimed at Canada. And we learned a little bit more about a couple of efforts to try and stop the tariffs. One, we spoke with Democratic Senator Chris Koonz, who says he's organizing an in-person bipartisan trip among lawmakers, American lawmakers to head to Canada to hold some kind of in-person

13:38meeting to try and repair the relationship, taking some sort of steps there to do that. And there's also an effort underway to pass some bills right now that are before the Senate and the House that would see those new 50% tariffs repealed, as well as refunds issued for anyone who has paid those tariffs. Now, at this point in the game, those bills, they're more symbolic than actually sort of have any sort of teeth to them, because it is very unlikely, absolutely not unlikely, they're not going to pass. It's just not going to happen with the makeup in Congress right now. But I think it'll be interesting for a Canadian audience to get a sense of hearing how these American lawmakers from both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, how they, what they are feeling this moment with the ongoing trade war. I think it is wrong to have a trade war with Canada. It is not in the interest of our country to have a trade war with Canada. So I think that is not the thing to do. Do you think that would you support repealing the tariffs?

14:38Congress should have more of a role now. It is embarrassing to be an American senator at a moment when our president continues to impose reckless and unfounded costs on the trusted deep relationship between the United States and Canada. And I am frankly heart sick at this moment in our relations and hope that Canadians can see past the failed leadership of President Trump and recognize that there are tens of millions of Americans who deeply hope that we will get past this moment. Senator Koon says he recognizes that there's been a lot of damage and that there are trust issues that Canadians have with the Trump administration. And he argues rightly so. We asked, you know, Prime Minister Mark Carney came out and said that the American signature is in pencil. What do you make of that? And he says he can understand how Canadians are feeling that way. And so he's looking toward efforts to try and the concrete things he can do in this moment to try to help repair that relationship. One other thing we should mention, David, about those bills. They, again, they're more symbolic than anything. They're not going to pass as long as Republicans

15:42are in control of the House and the Senate. But that's what Republicans, that's what Democrats are sort of looking at in this moment. Remember, this is a midterm election year. There are, there's a chance that the Democrats could do very well in the fall vote and perhaps take control of the House. Possibly, there's a long shot they could do to the Senate. But right now, the Republicans are having a really hard go and there's a chance there could be a shift in power in Washington. If that is the case, Democrats could get these kinds of bills passed. But then, again, however, remember, Donald Trump has vetoed power and he is openly telegraphed that if Republicans lose control in Congress, that he will become the blocker and he will block as much as he can that does not support his agenda. Okay, Katie, that was a very good point. Early November is important, but that veto is still a real, real thing. Okay, and just as a final thing, you had this interesting exchange with Republican Rick Scott. He's a senator from Florida. Walk us through what happened there. He is. And remember, the trade wars had a big impact on tourism, right? In Canadians,

16:44so frequently going to Florida, snowbirds, it is a favorite destination among Canadians. We know that numbers have dropped in recent months because there is so much frustration about the threats of becoming the 51 state, the taunts, and the ongoing trade war and the effect on the Canadian economy. And so Rick Scott, he is a Republican, he's a senator, he's from Florida. He is a very big ally of Donald Trump. And we kept asking about the trade war. He actually sort of came to us. We asked him if we could talk to him. He went into a committee room, was in there for about a minute and came out looking for us. He's like, you wanted to ask us a question. We're like, yes, we do. Yes, we certainly do. I was like, this is unexpected. Yes, we have many questions. And so because he's from Florida, because the trade war has such an impact on his state, it was very interesting to sort of get a sense to see, is he going to do anything to criticize President Trump and acknowledge sort of the realities of what this trade war has done in some aspects. The Trump administration will defend their tariff agenda and the trade war extensively.

17:45But have a listen to how he answered some of our questions. We've got to sit down and figure out what's how do you come to an agreement that's good for all the workers? We have a Canadian audience and a lot of Canadians get very, very frustrated by some of the language coming from the White House with some of the memes that the President is posting. What's your message to Canadians about who might not want to engage with the Trump administration now given the tone? Well, I know we have a lot of Canadians that come to Florida. They come down there and they buy homes. They spend part of the year down there. We love them down there. We've got a lot of Canadians. But what would you say to them if they're frustrated and maybe don't want to come to Florida? I know that there have been drop in tourism numbers, particularly hitting Florida. I think, I think, you know, our two leaders are to come together and see how they can come to an agreement. We asked him initially, you know, what's your message to Canadians? He just recounted that we've got a lot of Canadians. So I thought that was interesting from that perspective. Yes. And the two leaders come together. Let's see. Katie, thank you for coming together here on

18:49Power and Policy. So that's the CBC's Katie Simpson in Washington. A report from the University of Calgary School of Public Policy found that Alberta's separation from Canada would be costly in the short term and highly unpredictable in the long term. Now, the report was commissioned by the Alberta government and it examined two options, two outcomes, a smooth path, the separation, and a difficult one. Now, the smooth option would be negotiations to exit from Canada, start a new country, would be quick and favorable to Alberta, whereas the difficult option would be protracted, drag on and be unfavorable to the province. So a smooth transition, let's start there. It will cost an estimated $50 billion to transition to a new country. In the short term, this is the first five years as the timeframe we're talking here, wages would dip by $1200 a year and the province's GDP would be 2.2% lower and you would see a debt increase in the Alberta provincial debt of more than $200 billion. Now, in the long term, more than 20 years

19:55as the horizon we're talking here, wages will go up by more than $1800 a year and the province's GDP would be 3.4% higher. So short term pain, maybe some long term gain, the difficult path, much darker picture in those numbers. In that scenario, the transition costs much higher, nearly $170 billion, $120 billion more than the smooth scenario. Wages, way down, $5500. GDP also weighed down by about 10 percentage points and the province's debt would increase by a whopping $327 billion and the picture, it's more bleak in the long term. Just look at this. Wages would drop by almost $12,000 if we can just roll that back and GDP would be down, wages would drop by about $12,000 and GDP would be down by 16.2%. As bad as that is for Alberta, wouldn't be good for the rest of Canada either. Because the rest of the country would see a lower dollar, we would see higher

20:55interest rates and a loss of investment while puncturing a $15.5 billion whole in the federal budget. So some grim numbers. How are these numbers being received in Alberta? Well, to talk about that, I'm joined now by Alberta, NDP opposition leader, not head nanchi. Now, danchi, good to see again, thank you for being here today, sir. Thanks David, always great to be on power in politics. The math in this report is pretty great. What's your reaction to what was laid out there by the University of Calgary? Yeah, so I have to give you the former academic Weasel word, which is it's a big dense report and I haven't had time to digest the entire thing yet, but luckily we do have those important headlines. And I hear there's one sobering fact for you. As an example that the advisory panel to the government reviewing the report used for the smooth transition. An example of smooth was Singapore leaving Malaysia, Norway leaving Sweden in 1905. The third example they used was Brexit. So if Brexit is the smooth version, then we've got a very serious problem,

21:56both with the smooth and the difficult version. Even that long-term quote unquote gain in the smooth version, we have to ask against what base case? If Alberta's GDP is only getting increased by 3.4% over 20 or 30 years, that is a very, very big problem. But David, there's a political issue here as well, which is why in the world is the government of Alberta and Daniel Smith doing this in the first place? Why did they only commission the report after they put the question on the referendum? We all knew it would be crazy and expensive, but Premier Smith has been so busy pandering to separatists. She's backtracking quickly, spending a ton of taxpayer money on things that we already knew and doing it after the horse has left the bar as we say here in Alberta. Well, Brexit as an example of a smooth option is interesting. I mean, the actual decoupling procedurally was smooth. The ride has been rough ever since. So, you know, but they knew how to get out quickly, it seems. But I just wonder when you look at this, that, you know, Jack Mince was

22:57on this advisory committee for the government that assessed the findings of the study and said, they agree with the broad strokes that short term pain and uncertainty and long term uncertainty in either option, right? How do you think this might affect the bigger debate happening in Alberta when they see numbers like this coming out and signed off on and verified? Well, you know, David, again, the show's called power and politics. So, I'll talk a little bit about the politics of the whole thing here, which is the polling on this is very clear that the soft separatists are actually not a very large number, certainly under 10%. The people who are looking to be convinced to not be separatists or the people who sometimes call the send-a-message voters. The vast majority of Albertans are locked into pro-Canada, a small minority that the premier loves to listen to, but it's a small minority are locked into a pro-separation. And there's a very small number of people in the middle. Will this convince those people in the middle? I hope it does, but ultimately the real goal here, well, we never should have had this referendum,

24:01we never should have been spending $200 million on this when we have health care and education and economics and cost of living issues to deal with. But, since we're having the referendum, the real issue is to overcome complacency among the pro-Canada voters. The number one thing I hear every day, and I've been working my butt off on trying to save Canada, I did not have saved Canada on my summer to-do list, but here we are. The number one thing I hear every day is not, why are you so worked up about this? The separatists are never going to win, but I will tell you this, every one of the separatists is going to vote. They will crawl over broken glass to vote. And if the Federalists are like, we got this in the bag anyway, we could end up with a result much closer to Brexit than what the polls are telling us or what the reality is. And that's what I worry about every day. Right, so on that, I know voter motivation is always a concern and a question in moments like this, and certainly using the Brexit example, it played a role there. So what is the number that you need to see the- we'll use the Brexit words, the remaining Canada side get in this

25:04referendum to sort of stamp out this effort? Because the concern is that if it's too high, it could lead to an actual referendum or have a constant series of these initiatives become a permanent feature of Alberta politics. Is it- they need to be less than 25% less than 30% less than 20%, where do you see it? Look, this will never be stamped out as long as Danielle Smith is the premier. Remember, there's not just one question on there's a referendum, there's nine other ones. Five of them are broadly anti-immigrant questions to blame immigrants for the problems the government has found itself in. The other four blatantly unconstitutional questions. I call those nine questions separatism in slow motion, or if you prefer an evil plot. That's why we're saying, yes to Canada, well, no one knows. This one would trigger formal referendum. So where does it need to be to sort of push that back at least for the short term? Well, it will only trigger a formal referendum at 51%. I hope in prey that will never get to 50 plus one. But the other nine are meant to trigger eternal referendum. That's the real issue. The premier doesn't want this to

26:09go away. In her dreams, she wants a 60-40 split and an overwhelming yes on the other nine questions, which she'll never get from Ottawa or from the court. So she can keep this alive forever. If you believe the polls will have a 75, 25 or a 78, 22 results. I'd love to see an 80, 20 results. Right. And that's what we're pushing to motivate people to get to. And maybe this report today will bring up the remain people by that one or two percent. Well, if you believe the math, separating to get $1,800 a year wage increases over 20 years and 3.4% higher GDP, that's a heck of a role of the dice. But look, just quickly before we let you go, you had a big bilection win in Calgary, Shaw, this week, South Calgary, Rebecca Schultz's old seat. I mean, the NDPer's stronger north in that city. The further south you go, it gets pretty conservative. I mean, how much of the referendum play into this, do you think? Yeah, this was a writing that the UCP one by 40 points in 2019. Certainly, the NDP has been cutting back on that, but to win so decisively on Monday was a huge thing,

27:14and what was a conservative stronghold, which means there are no safe conservative seats in Calgary anymore. And I love that. But that said, certainly, separatism was part of the conversation, but as my candidate, now MLA-elect Kyle Campbell says, never was the first thing at the door. Now, the first thing at the door was, I'm very frustrated with the premiere. And certainly, separatism is a huge part of that. But ultimately, people were looking for a better vision on the things that matter to you every day, taking action on the cost of living, securing good jobs, now and in the future, public health care, great schools, public education. Those were the things that really came together. So certainly, the voters sent a message to Daniel Smith that they're unhappy, but I also believe they voted for a more positive vision of Alberta, which includes Alberta staying an integral part of Canada. Alberta opposition NDP leader Nihid Nancie, we appreciate the time. Good to see you again, sir. Thanks David. Earn your Farm D in as little as 33 months with West Coast University's hybrid program, no bachelor's degree required. Eligible transfer credits may

28:15be accepted. West Coast University, as real as it gets, visit westcoastuniversity.edu. WCU cannot guarantee employment. Hi, this is Dave Roberts. Heading into summer without a medical emergency kit, that's a risk. Summer colds can linger and getting sick on vacation can derail everything. That's why everyone needs a medical emergency kit. It includes doctor prescribed medications to treat common and serious illnesses. So if you wake up sick, at home or on the road, you already have what you need. It's like having an urgent care and pharmacy at home. Say $45 with code blue at urgentcare kit.com slash blue urgent care kit.com slash blue. Prime Minister Marcarne has arrived in Europe to an offer no country has been offered before. This is not a partnership against anyone else, but for our common strength. In short, we want to bring the relationship with Canada to the highest level possible.

29:21And dear Mark, I said we must urgently reimagine our partnerships. So I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to being the first associate member of the European Union. So Prime Minister Karne has said that he's seeking a deeper, unique alliance with the EU, but his government says it's not ready to commit to associate membership. I think we've actually got to get to the point where we know what we're describing, which is moving forward with some of the specific initiatives that we have proposed, that they have proposed back to us. We are not looking to be a member of the European Union, because that is a sovereignty issue and people give up certain portions of their sovereignty. But at the end of the day, what we are looking to do is get as close as we possibly can in manner that's going to actually strengthen all of our respective countries without giving up significant chunks of sovereignty. Conservative leader Pierre Paulier is accusing the Prime Minister

30:23of mixed messages and says Mark Karne should be straight with Canadians. The Conservatives are clear. While we support free trade and continued NATO cooperation with our European allies, Conservatives say no EU taxes, no EU laws, and no EU open border rules on immigration in Canada. Okay, time now for the power panel. We've got Amanda Alvaro, who is a former Liberal Party communication strategist. Shotchi Kurly is here today. She is the President of the Angus Read Institute, and here with me in the studio, we have Tim Powers, who has worked as a strategist for Conservative parties, and Jordan Leichnitz, who is a former NDP strategist. Amanda, all week, me and my colleagues in this newsroom had senior government people saying we're not interested in membership, not interested, not seeking associate membership. Then Ursula von der Leyen throws it out there. What Jonathan Wilkinson said on camera was very similar to what I have been told in private. What does Canada actually want from the EU?

31:26I mean, I'm sorry David, I don't know what's happening in these relationships, but I don't know what it's called as an associate membership. Is it a unique alliance? I think people are trying to figure that out coming out of today, but it's pretty nice to be wanted on the dance card. You know what I mean? Like, especially coming off the heels of what has been happening in the US, you really see Canada's position exploding in other markets. But if you look at it for decades, our economic strategy has really been geography is destiny. United States is next door, so we'll deepen their relationship there. And I think that Canada, for the first time now, is offering a different proposition, saying, yes, of course geography matters and the United States matters, but sovereignty is requiring diversification. So this is, in many ways, a strategic plan B, a plan B to reduce the reliance on the US. I think the question is, and what everybody was asking today is, what does Canada get out of this? Is it more market access? Is it labor mobility? Defense procurement? Regulatory alignment? And once those things are better defined,

32:33this could get very consequential. And I think, you know, Polly out of statements, well, interesting, he becomes really a footnote in what has been, what is a really big and emerging story? And what I think Canadians have a lot of appetite for. Okay, so Shachi, the way I listen to Jonathan Wilkinson is like, they're ready to go study with Europe and not move in, because you can't, right? Like, you can't get full membership without being in Europe. So that's a non-starter. Associate membership does not exist. So the concern about joining it in a way that formally ties you to the decision making of Brussels and the financial commitments, there's no path for that right now. So is this just a semantic misunderstanding of what has been publicly stated by both sides of the desire to just work together on a bunch of the key things? They don't trust the Americans to do anymore. Right, and what's in a name? What's in a title? What does, you know, hey, Associate membership sounds good. It's like when you work in the corporate world and somebody says, we're going to give you a new title, but no salary increase.

33:35So let's hope that that's not the case for Canada, in that if there is a new slash made up title, it does actually mean some of the things that Amanda has laid out. In terms of the way, we're seeing both of the leaders and the parties now start to, and Ambassador Wilkinson start to frame this. We're really seeing the leader of the opposition talking about trying to frame it as now something that we are, we may, you know, regulations or requirements that we may be beholden to or regardless of whether it's something Canadians want, and Canada not being entirely forthcoming about what any of it really means. But I can tell you what Canadians themselves think about closer ties with Europe, whether those are trade ties or whether those are defense ties. They like it. They really do like a 57% of Canadians say we should be building closer ties with Europe, particularly on the economic front, consider that the second closest potential lean in on trade ties

34:41as the United States at 24% and then the UK at 19%. So you look pretty good to Canadians, and then when you ask them questions like, okay, the rearm Europe packed and where are we coming from with all of that, Canadians recognize they're paying attention to how much closer defense ties could raise the iron of Washington, and yet, and yet, the majority say, do it anyway. This is what we want to see. So as long as Canadians continue to buy into the, we need to diversify on many fronts, they're not going to be as worried about some of the things that Mr. Polly Ev is laying out, but on the other hand, the more he talks about it, the more they may be attuned to that. You know, Tim, it was interesting just the attempts at message control and even today, like the Wall Street Journal, which had this story, is reporting that as Cedric Canadian officials told them that they pitched the idea of associate members should first, and then like, I have five Canadians officially saying, no, no, the Europeans brought this up. It's a bizarre thing,

35:43but it makes it hard to understand what is actually on the table here, and what sounds like is on the table here is a process to negotiate something maybe by the end of October. The governments made this mistake a couple of times before, where they have an idea that may be excellent, but it's how they tell the story. Go back to that B.C. condo issue. Remember, they're going to buy all these condos for the homeless and they're made it or people in need of housing, and it got framed up right away as they're bailing out developers. It's exactly the same thing here. Oh, we're joining this European bureaucracy, and cheese will never get cheese, and the wine's going to be terrible, and it's going to cost. It's going to be awful, awful, awful. If you know anything about the European Union, the thing that always comes to mind is bureaucracy, over-regulation, over-governing. And Pierre Paulierves is jumping on all of that as he should. I think again, the government got ahead of itself. If they were smart, they might have put on this issue. They might have put Jonathan Wilkinson out last week to say, you know what, the Prime Minister is going to Europe. Here's what he's going to do. It won't be a union. So now, the Prime

36:47Minister tomorrow is going to be spending so much of his speech trying to explain what he's on defense as opposed to offense, and having the opportunity that would have been presented. They set the table the right way. They may get to where they want to get, and Amanda's right to say, it is a good thing to be wanted, and I'm sure the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister's office are trying to use that as they should for all that it's worth, but if you want to have more benefit to that, lay a little bit of the groundwork better than you did. Yeah, look, we have been asking for Jonathan Wilkinson, ministers, parli-sex, anybody, just come on and explain it to us, and they're not available. And also, Jordan, today, an announcement in the UK, because he went to Strasbourg, the Prime Minister, then he went to the soccer match with Andy Burnham. They've applied to join the joint expeditionary force, which is the British-led military alliance of, you know, 10 Nordic nations, all of them in NATO. That seems like a pretty big thing. We'll find out what that means, but Karne wants this too. The Prime Minister wants this as well with Europe, right?

37:49It's not just a nurse in Lavender, Lyon thing, even though Politico is reporting most of the European countries didn't know she was going to do this. So it's wild. Yes, well, dare I say it, there might be politics on both sides of the United States. I'm shocked that you would say it makes such a place. And I think that, you know, a big part of what you're seeing here in the enthusiasm in the EU, like a lot of it is really genuine. They do see Canada as a like-minded partner, a partner that has what the EU needs when it comes to things like energy, and critical minerals, and defense partnerships. But also, Mark Karne has a lot of shine right now. His Davos speech gives him a lot of political capital in Strasbourg, in Brussels, and Ursula von der Leyen, you know, I think wants to be close to that. And so I think that's part of what's going on here. This proposal is going to be something that's going to be discussed over a very long time period. I think we could describe it right now as like a situation ship with EU, like we're more than friends, but we haven't settled on the title yet. We will get there eventually. But the reality is that there are a number of

38:54portfolios where it does make sense for Canada to be deepening cooperation with the EU. And I think that the structure in a way is a lot less important than the content. And defense and security is one, you know, the question of who's going to keep the lights on in NATO? Well, the Americans are doing whatever it is they're doing under Trump is a huge one. AI, quantum, critical minerals, all those things, right? But you know, there's also there's other spaces as well, you know, the EU is leading in terms of tackling the climate crisis. They have strong labor rights. Let's talk about labor mobility with that. You know, there's a lot that we can do when we want to talk about strengthening our own sovereignty that makes us a good fit for those conversations with Europe. So I think the structural pieces were likely to see more clarity on that as we get into the candidate EU summit in October. But as as Sachi said, this is a phenomenally popular idea among Canadians. So notwithstanding the government's fumbling on the communications front on this, I think overwhelmingly the conversation is going to be welcome. Well, and that's certainly the sort of the push that we're getting from

39:54Canadian and what we heard from Jonathan Wilkinson is that the substance of this matters a lot more than the name and Canada is not going to agree to anything that binds it to sort of the subordination to the Brussels regime, right? But I wouldn't make any sense because they would have no representation in making those rules. You'd be a rule taker and you'd have to change a bunch of things. So I'm ending just a quick question. Then I want to I'm going to bring in Rafi Butchikane and we're going to talk about the conservatives. Europe looks like a very good option right now to a lot of people. And I know the UK is not in the European Union. But a Prime Minister Farage, a president, Le Pen, more AFD breakthroughs in Germany. And Germany suddenly looks very different. And that trend of populist sort of pro-America, less hostile to Russia, not exactly NATO friendly. That is something that is on the horizon right now in Europe. Yeah, could could pose a much bigger communications challenge could change public opinion. Think about it. You're a broad, you're almost

40:55going from what oh, oh, oh, this with Canadians around diversification. So I think that you know, it's obviously an interesting and popular place for them to be in. And this is where Jordan's call on politics is very true. Our relationship with the US is changing. We have to seek economic sovereignty. We have to do that by rebuilding at home. We have to do that by diversifying more broadly. But when you have Europe coming to the table, you're almost, it's an endorsement of the fact that Karni is not misreading the room right now. That could change as politics changes. But right now he has the public on side. And it appears that the cornerstone of his argument around diversification is working for him and it's going to work for Canada. Yeah, a good room to read would be a room full of reporters explaining the plan with Europe in depth because that is something we kind of need. Look, I want to just quickly switch to the federal conservators because the caucus is meeting in British Columbia this week ahead of next

41:55week's return to parliament. And with the party following in the polls, the meeting is to strategize next steps. And conservative leader Pierre Paulierve had this message for his caucus just last hour. So what is our role in opposition? In this time when people can't afford their bills or losing their jobs, the economy is flat. Crime is worsening and our economy is facing unfair tariffs. Our job is to unite to fight for Canada abroad at the same time as doing our duty of holding the government accountable here at home. That is what it means to be a loyal opposition. Okay, the CBC's Raffee Bougie Canyon is covering the caucus force. He joins us now from Pentect in British Columbia. So Raffee, what else do we hear from Pierre Paulierve on the direction that he wants to take the party? David, a lot of it was themed around that affordability messaging. The kind of stuff you've really been hearing him talk about for the last couple of years, though he did. I noticed, try to sort of marry that to the trade war itself, right? At one point,

42:58he was saying something like he met thousands of vloggers who have lost their jobs in British Columbia and named other segments of Canadian civil society that have been suffering due to the tariffs and then said, well, are we supposed to not be their voices while Donald Trump has yet to leave the office? And he said, no, okay, he was kind of trying to build up a bit of a rapport with the crowd, with his caucus members, trying to get them to cheer for him as he was saying that stuff. He did get a little bit into the EU-associated membership questions suggesting that conservatives want better ties with the European Union, but they don't want to be integrated into the EU, talking about losing control of immigration and some other types of laws where Canada has sovereignty. He did also say that he wants to continue standing up to Donald Trump, so an issue he's been a little bit more reticent to talk about in the past. Well, he's not been so shy lately and he's kind of trying to put the emphasis on that. But really, what it came down to was the affordability

44:02messaging, reminding people that parliament's sitting is starting soon and with that, with the fall sitting comes the fall budget and will be an opportunity for the conservatives to present what they think could be savings for the Canadian population when that budget comes out. So really sort of trying to insert himself back into this national conversation that's kind of left them behind. Okay, so parliament comes back next week and the conservative caucus returns down a seat with the loss of the bi-lection, and it's including me if you're then a larger majority liberal government. I mean, where is Pierre Polly of Withys caucus at this point? Because we've seen the reporting of discontent and grumbling and fractures. What's your sense of where things are in the eve of the return of parliament? Yeah, I mean, David, look, the reporters here, we all started counting how many people are in the room, right? When we walked into there to listen to the leaders. And most MPs were there, including Jamil Javani, the MP for Bowman, Villache,

45:04Wannorthu, kind of raised eyebrows last week when he put out a social media video, not really naming his leader, not saying Pierre Polly of, but saying politicians should be able to stand up to the liberals and how they're running things when it comes to dealing with the US. There should be more cooperation with the US and nobody should be shy about talking about that stuff. It was kind of viewed as semi-veiled criticism of the leader, right? We had even people in the conservative orbit like former Alberta Premier Jason Kennedy, former spokesperson for Steven Harper, Dimitri Sura's pointing out he had nothing nice to say about his own leader. So, you know, control of caucus. I mean, pretty much everyone's here. How is the caucus morale? That might be another question. Our colleague, JP Tasker asked that to Deputy Leader Melissa Lansman. Let's see how she responded. I think you have to be quite honest. This is not the position that we want to be in at this juncture. There's no, there's no question about that. And I think that it's retreats

46:07like this and moments like this where a caucus comes together and figures out what happens next. What I know that caucus is united on is fighting for everyday Canadians, fighting for jobs, fighting for growth, fighting for families, fighting for small businesses that are dealing with with the tariffs and the relationship or the fundamental shift in the relationship with the US. That is what we are united on. Perhaps a bit of a starker admission of the state of things than from some other MPs I tried to talk to while that news conference was going on. I was outside trying to see if other MPs would talk to us. Most people who did stop briefly insisting that caucus is united. I was talking to Cheryl Galant and I asked her if there are any questions about leadership going on and she said no and if there were any, she would know. Okay, well there you go. The Cheryl Galant decision desk as Wade in on this. All right, Rafi, thank you so much.

47:10This is Rafi Hujikani and I think it's a concerted caucus in Pintikton, BC. Let's walk back to the power panel account. I see it's 1, 2, 3, 4. Okay, we've got all four of our people here with this. Shachi, we heard the message there from Pierre Paulier. We also heard the message yesterday from Stephen Harper endorsing Mark Ernie's trade decisions to walk away, putting the stamp of approval on the investment summit. What does all of that do for the ability of the current conservative leader to punch through in a time like this? Yeah, punch through or punch someone. In many ways, Stephen Harper was the architect of Pierre Paulier's victory and ascension to the leadership in 2022 of the party by Vassiferously and actively and vocally not supporting Jean-Shetay. So here we are. We're here with a guy who supported Paulier of tacitly or otherwise in terms of his leadership and now four years later saying what he's saying. This has been a really challenging

48:17time for Pierre Paulier. And one of my co-panelists or maybe it was Rafi talked about the fact that it's been a hard time to punch through, to be relevant, to have a message that is, that people are prepared to pay attention to because right now they're so focused on the other boogie man who's in Washington, who I like, I'll do a jimiljavad, I'm not going to name him. We all know who we're talking about. But you know, so there's a couple of different things. He's had some good days as opposition leader. He had a good week last week when he spent time in Washington and said, you know, a number of different things. One of the things he talked about was how he wasn't going to criticize a sitting prime minister on foreign soil. So that was well received. But at the same time, the messages around affordability, the messages around gas prices and all of those things that were so resonant up until December of 2024 are not the things right now that Canadians have their listening ears open to. That can always change. And so maybe the strategy right now is just

49:24stick to this plan. And at some point, people will start to fall out of situation, ship with Mark Carney. However, he still has real fundamental problems. So there's two conflicting narratives going on. On one hand, his unfavorable numbers continue to be twice that of his favorable numbers with Canadians writ large. So his unfavorable numbers are something like 60% according to our last polling compared to 31, 32% favorability. That is problematic. He is only winning in terms of age and gender demographics with middle aged men. He doesn't have young men. He doesn't even have 55 plus men. So he's only got one of six potential age gender splits going for him. And at the same time, when we talk to 21 and 25 liberal, sorry, conservative voters and say, well, what do you think about your leader? The majority say, we think he's doing a good job. The majority say he should be the person who carries this party into the next election. And at the same time, half of them are also saying,

50:26but we need to make big changes if we want to be in a position to win. So the tension and the conflict is always, do we care more about the guy that we're backing or do we care more about winning? Right now, he's winning in terms of of that conflict and that trade off. But, you know, we keep watching it, we keep watching it. And I think the question will eventually come to a head as we get closer to another federal election, which I do not suppose we are close to. Not well, maybe, maybe not. I know people in BC were talking about an election this fall today. David, you say we're going to be ready. Well, right. And then the unforced errors around just talking about Carolyn filling. What was that about at Stampede? Come on. Okay, but Tim, we may not be getting closer to a general election, but we are getting closer to other bi-elections. And interestingly, there's going to be rally in Brandford for the air. Probably have on Sunday because a Larry Brock seat, it's southwestern Ontario, you know, the industrial heartland of Ontario. This is a problem if they were to lose this. Jimil Giovanni's kind of running his own operation right now.

51:28Deanalysis running his own inquiry right now. I mean, what, what, what, what is the measurable level of discipline that can be opposed to is being opposed to the post? Maybe there's hope in the European elections. I don't know. The key. The issue is winning. He needs to win something. He needs something as Shachi rightly pointed out. He had a few good days in New York, but even that was stepped on. He hasn't had anything he can point to his caucus and say, look, I know how to win. He hasn't had anything like that in two years. And now, finally, within his caucus, people are saying, well, maybe he can't win the big one. Maybe it isn't. This isn't the script of a, of a hallmark movie where he waits around. He waits around and waits around in a situation, a situation, turns into a love of fair. He needs to find some sort of win or have Mark Carney stumble. He can't control what happens with Mark Carney to a large degree. Those bi-elections, I think, are going to be important for him in

52:32the fall. Should they happen there? Also, what is he going to do with Chavani? There might be some merit, though there is risk in exercising some discipline there because his caucus isn't as enamored with him or as fearful of him as they once were. He needs to demonstrate. He still has some leadership chops there. He is the loser in the circumstances of the moment. Again, he can't do much about that, but he's got to find a consistency in either being Mr. Team Canada, along with the Prime Minister and offering some criticism when it is due. But not this week. Again, classic example, he has that great moment in New York. He wins a little bit of support from within the party because of Jimil Giovanni's stupidity. Then he puts out this Astonine video called I called BS. Who are you, sir? On the investment summit. Yeah, on the investment. Stephen Harper closed.

53:39Stephen Harper closed. So there's this gross inconsistency that he's got to figure out. But, you know, it was just such a striking moment that the liberal Prime Minister can jet off to Straussburg to deepen ties with the bureaucrats as Mr. Polly of calls him and leaves the key to Stephen Harper to close up when he leaves at a summit that is being criticized, ridiculed even, by the current leader of the Conservative Party. It is such a dissonance there. It's striking. And I think that part of the problem for Mr. Polly of is it underlines that he wouldn't be in those rooms. He wouldn't be doing those things. And I think that Tim has really quite rightly outlined a lot of the external pressures that are on Polly of. He's really in a way he's torn between the Harper and the Giovanni elements in the party, like those who would advocate for an approach that's more supportive of the government in this particular almost wartime moment, who are more focused on the economic

54:40issues and who are less engaged in that online sort of far-right adjacent space that the Giovanni and Dean Allison and those others spend a whole lot of time in. The problem for Mr. Polly of, though, is that he's not just subject to these forces. He's also he's playing with them, right? He's trying to engage in some of that same mobilization of those supporters that was, you know, part of getting those big crowds during the campaign, but it's limiting with regular Canadians. It's very limiting because the stuff sounds weird, frankly. It sounds out of step with where most people are at. And his inability to choose a tact that is more statesmen-like, that is more focused on the threat from the United States. It's more clear-eyed about what's happening with President Trump and the real threat that poses to our sovereignty. His inability to do that has reduced him to talking to an increasingly small number of people within that right-leaning base of his own party.

55:42I think that the fact that he has not exercised discipline on Giovanni or on Dean Allison is, you know, these vaccine hearings continue and things like this, that's a manifestation of his weakness within his own caucus, which has always been the place of greatest threat to his leadership. So I can imagine that those meetings that are happening right now are probably not very pleasant. Because that room is dangerous for him. You know, it would be instructive. Sorry, it would be instructive. Pierre probably have to go back and look at Stephen Harper's Circuit 204-205 after losing to Paul Martin. There was lots of questions about Mr. Harper's leadership then, but what he did, instead of, you know, tolerating the Giovanni's of the era or the Dean Allison's of the era, he clamped down hard on it. This is a moment where the conservative party likes it or not, where Canadians are looking for strong, able leadership. They're not wanting fringe and dalliances with all of that. Stephen Harper got that, any rule for 10 years? Yeah, well, there's a lot of culture war in those young issues, which the current Prime Minister is.

56:45Sorry, David, the other thing that Stephen Harper did post that 2004 loss was he took a reflective pause. Yes. And it just went away for a long time and thought about things that reflected on things and then came back. Right. We haven't seen that from Pierre Paulier. Okay, Amanda, the venue, the arena, Pierre Paulier of likes, is Parliament and it comes back next week. Yes. So what can he do in the venue he wants to be in to change this? Because, you know, Shachi went through a lot of forepolling. There's other pulling, other that tracks preference for Prime Minister and the gap between Pierre Paulier, the Maxine Bernier, is smaller than the gap between Pierre Paulier of a Mercernie right now. And that's not a scenario we saw two years ago. So what can he do once he gets back to that stage? I don't think there's a lot that he can do right now because he was the man of a moment, but he is not the man of this moment and his moment has passed. It passed a long time ago. It passed before the last election and he hasn't been able to make any headway since. And the reason why is because now we all know who Pierre Paulier is. He was the

57:49person who illuminated your dissatisfaction. He was the person who talked in in in hatch tags that were kind of sticky for a while. But now we have true substance and true leadership to look at. And he really pails in comparison. So, well, he likes the theatrics. He's really stumbled. We've seen him in the house since he lost the election. Nothing he can do can gain traction today because today Canadians are worried about something else. And they have a leader that they can rely on who they feel is the best person to steward them through this issue. Pierre Paulier just doesn't come close. But is there something to put a floor under the slide, Amanda, that you see like the affordability issues? I mean, I don't know if Canadians disentangle that from the economic agenda and the trade agenda, right? Because there is obviously a continuum between a lot of those things. Do you see a path there for him? Yeah, I mean, I think that, listen, if you were to get some traction around some of these affordability issues, but this is not new. This is what he's been talking about for months and months. So, it's really

58:50hard for me to make a case for him that the same arguments or the same tone or the same delivery that he's been using is suddenly going to work again. I would say that the climate, the environment would have to change in order for it to be more palatable for Canadians to listen to Pierre Paulier. And I don't think he's shown that he can change himself enough to appeal in these particular times. Well, look, if there's one thing we do know in the age of Donald Trump, the environment can change. They can change pretty fast. Yeah. Often for the worst. Okay, we got to change. We are out of time. I want to thank you all, Amanda Elvero, Shachikirl, Tim Powers, and Jordan Lightness. That's it for today. If you like this episode, please follow the pod and catch our next live show on CBC News Network. We're on weekdays at 5pm Eastern Time. I'm David Cochran. Thanks for listening.

59:58For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.