Fed Hikes Rates, Oil Affordability Crisis & Paramount Threatens California Exit | PBD #858

0:00Okay, just so you guys know I got some bad news. I don't know if you guys heard this or not. This just happened. A lot of people are not happy about this. Forbes 400 list billionaires. Do you know 590 billionaires? We're not rich enough to make it on the Forbes 400. Yeah. Catastrophic times their heart. You know, and number came out saying Americans income hits record high. Then people are like, wait a minute, who's income sitting record high? Top is sitting record high, but at the same time lower earners lose ground. So the whole concept of rich getting rich or poor getting poor affordability. We got some of that that we'll be talking about today.

1:01Umberto came in today pissed off. He parked his car. 500 yards away and he walked here because he's trying to save money on gas. So he parked no longer. He walks. He was sweating. It was wet. You know, he knows what I'm talking about. Yeah, mustache. All on the room. His mustache. Look, as much as we're laughing having fun with this, people are having a challenge in time with gas prices. We're seeing it with diesel and I'm sure you saw the story on JP Morgan Chase. They're asking the JP Morgan Chase analyst and they're saying, can you model what's going to happen with oil prices? I don't have a clue what the hell is going on. When have you heard an analyst saying I can't predict what's going to be happened with the marketplace? And because of that, we decided to bring two guys in Snyder, Jeff. Uh, very smart guy. He comes here. He gives us a workout here. Him and Tom fight it out on who's more smart. He gets both of them going a little bit, which is good competition. We like that. I'm going to fight. No, you fight a lot. You guys fight hardcore. That's off air though. That's off air. And then we also have the good look and handsome. Could have gone a different direction in his life.

2:03Could have gone on Hollywood. Maybe done top gun three. I don't know. He could have done a complete different direction, but we got the great will wit here with us as well. So with that being said, let's get right right into we got glad we put them in the middle of these two. So they're not fighting over brains. No, it's going to be the brains. Let the good look guys get up. Well, look, when we need sports commentary, we're going to go to will. We have to have a lot of our sports. He just made it very clear on how much sports he watch growing up. And maybe he'll share that story with you. Exactly. So, uh, okay, Paramount, leaving California. Where they going? Nobody knows. There's some speculation. But what everybody knows is they're leaving California. Now, why would a company leave California? It's not like they're doing anything bad. Alicia, you can bring it. No problem. But they're leaving California. Number two, Massey wants to impeach. Hexet Johnson wants to shut down the, you know, um, the government. Massey saying, why are we doing this if we're about to lose mid terms? We got only a few months left to fix this. Others are saying, why are you going after Hexet? This is not the way of doing it.

3:03Maybe we'll have that conversation here together. Then you have the fed rate increase that happened. Kevin Warshtown was panicking for a few weeks. Worried about if that was going to happen or not. It did rates went up a quarter of a basis point. He came out and some say he's trying to be his own man. Some say he made the right decision. Some are upset at it. The bonds folks like, uh, what's his name? Jeffery gunlack. He thinks it needs to go up even another point. Trump think it needs to go down to 1%. We'll have that conversation. How it impacts you as the individual that's going through this. And then we talked about that in minute. Who these drone strike over mecca and the Saudis like, wait, what are you doing? So that's what I'm going to do. I'm just saying, I'm just going to go do the right, right? Over mecca and the Saudis like, wait, what are you doing? So that wasn't us. We would never do such a thing. It was you. No we would never do such a thing like that. So now Saudis coming up to ask Trump for help. Trump is saying we're not going to be involved. We'll get into that story as well. Rogan says if AI was running the world, there would be no wars. He says he thinks running.

4:03AI running the government would stop all wars on the planet. about it. Would it be better? Would we have more wars, less wars? Would there even be mankind for there to be no wars? Who knows? Maybe it sparks a good conversation and then we got Vivek. Ramaswami, once a superstar on the Republican side now going against Amy in Ohio, the Calcounumbers came up and the Calcounumbers are not looking favorable for Vivek maybe we can talk about why that happened, why that's happening and a cash patelle. You know I'm watching Kennedy, what's his name, what's the gentleman's name, the his for Kennedy? He's phenomenal. He's asking cash. I heard you change the requirements to be an FBI agent. We did. Now why would you change the requirements for B. Stiality? We have to do it because of if people were tied to, what does he say if people were tied to what he called it, human trafficking

5:03and you were forced to, he said so we want to protect everything. Yeah he says we want to protect them on both sides. He says oh so you're going to protect animals from B. Stiality? He says no he starts laughing. So people are wondering why would you allow people who have experienced B. Stiality to become FBI agents? It's a valid question to bring up. It's a very weird thing to even do. His answer was worse than the question. His answer was far worse than the question. Who's answer? Kennedy's or cash? No cash. Yeah it was a very weird answer. The way the implications of his answer were far worse than the question. So you know I think I think I have a, I have an idea of what I think they're doing with that and maybe we'll get into that. Lindsey Clancy's hold out juror a man who interviewed him. His name is now out there. His brother's coming out talking about why he made the decision and one African American man who interviewed him. I saying why he chose the position from they one and ever changed and then farmers who voted for the president are not happy right now. They're having a hard time financially and it will definitely talk about some gas prices and there was a college girl. I believe at your college Pennsylvania was

6:04attacked this video when viral. Nobody on mainstream media talked about it at all whatsoever. I'll go to will on this and then last but not least for some of you guys that are watching football. For those of you guys that watch football, I'm going to give you a statistic which is very crazy. There's this quarterback named Josh Allen which is kind of a big deal. Did you know Adam and Tom that Josh and by the way will I know you follow this stuff closely. Did you know Josh Allen has more Russian touchdowns 83 than Frank Gore all time than Ed Green James all time. Edged and Tony Dorset all time. These are all Campbell. The right time. Then is he Elliot all time. Yeah. Then Lashon McCoy all time then Eddie George all time then Ricky Williams all time. Then Tiki Barbara Josh Allen and Josh Allen is not even a flip and running back. All these guys were great running back. He's a quarterback with 83 Russian touchdowns. Holy moly and I bring this up because this man's a die hard bill bills and I used to be a bills fan when they when I first came to

7:10this it's very common for Iranians that they come to America to become bills fans. They're known very natural yet. Thermatamas BB all those old guys but anyways with that being said before we get started. We just recently came up. We had a lot of shirts that we would sell with all the value payment and the gear that we had and based on what people were asking about we went and got the highest quality cotton Pima cotton shirts when you put this on your you're going to notice your wife's going to touch you more because it's so soft she's going to be like babe come here and I don't know if you want maybe you don't want that if you do want that you may want to order a couple of these for yourself go ahead guys. Not everything needs to be reinvented. Something simply need to be perfected. A refined blend of Pima and long staple cotton chosen for its exceptional softness and depth. Substantial and feel effortless and comfort with a clean tailored drape that brings quiet

8:12sophistication to the everyday the Pima tea the essential elevated. There you go go to f.o.b.com. These come in navy blue. They they look insane navy blue super light. We got them in black. We got them in tan green and white go to f.o.b.com. Place your order get all the colors for yourself your son your husband your brother super super comfortable shirts that we have here but go to f.o.b.com get the latest Pima cotton shirts and start sporting the f.o.b. gear again f.o.b.com with that being said let's get right into it. First topic I want to start off with is interest rates. The federal reserve raises the rates everybody's a Kevin wars goes up on the stage he took maybe five seconds he says the federal reserve has decided to raise the rates a quarter of a basis point the market within minutes loses a half a trillion dollars of valuation at the time it's recovered ever since. Lots of topics lots of people started talking what's going to happen next Jeff when you first saw this were you surprised

9:14and was this the right move no and no you're not surprised no no I mean but you don't think this is the right move no it wasn't the right move okay tell me why there's a couple of reasons first of all the reason the fed actually did raise rates is simply because they don't know they're they're basically saying we think what's going to happen in the short run is that consumer prices are going to go up which they already have due to energy prices we're worried that they could spill over into other prices and become broader inflation inflation went up to what 5.3 whatever the number was four four and a half depending on which measure you're talking about right CPI versus the PC right they they look at the PC deflator which has been a little bit higher than the CPI but they realize that an energy shock doesn't necessarily become inflation in fact historically it doesn't so when you look at their summary of economic projections which is the material that comes out with the press conference what they actually model what they're actually expecting is that consumer prices will go up in 2026 and then decelerate in 2027 okay so if that's the case you ask why the how would you raise rates if you actually think that there's no inflation problem next year other than energy

10:16prices why would you raise rates and the answer is they're not actually confident in their projection they think that this is going to happen because this is what normally happens however they also remember what they said in 2022 so basically Kevin Worsh is taking out a somewhat of an insurance policy and it's more of a symbolic symbolic insurance policy than not we're going to raise rates because we think this is a one time increase in energy prices and once the oil prices go back down lower we won't have an inflation problem we don't know for sure because I don't want to be J. Powell and be criticized heavily by basically everybody for not doing something we're going to proactively raise rates to make it look like we're we're on the ball here about an inflation problem but we don't think we have but we might actually have so it's it's it's it's um it's a combination so is it the right idea is it the right is it the right tactic no of course not they're just basically saying we're not really confident that what we think is going to happen is going to have we'll worry you have with that it's pretty laughable that they're thinking you know we might not have an inflation problem later on and thinking that oh it's going to get better and everything's

11:16going to slow down I mean you're talking about 5% inflation but when you look at the numbers on just basic consumer goods I mean this inflation on things with beef and coffee and you know normal things that people are using that is much higher than just a 5% increase so I see this getting a lot worse before it gets better but to me the real question is you know I'm an anti-fed guy I think the federal reserve has been bad for America since its inception um yeah the second central bank of the United States which are shut down and they made the federal reserve and for me I just don't understand why we have 12 people who are deciding essentially the economic future economic reality of the 30 trillion dollar economy it makes no sense and it's the same thing because you know Trump is talking about 1% interest rates I wouldn't want Trump to be in charge of this either lower you to 1% yeah oh you don't want that no lower interest rates are bad okay I mean you heard Japan also raised the rates to highest and 31 years well that raises another question okay this is not just a US problem right if we're having this energy shock and the effect on consumer prices in Europe and Japan and Asia not China China's the different story entirely but most of the rest of the

12:20world the most of the rest of the world is having a consumer price problem but the health of the federal reserve going to do if it's a global factor it's a set of global factors why is the fed responding to global factors are beyond its capabilities to begin with and I agree with you well the fed is it's not what everybody thinks it is it doesn't actually control the economy in fact the real purpose of the fed is for periods like this so if you're a politician like Trump you can say this is a mess you guys screwed it up oh this is I didn't do this is not my fault it's your fault it the fed is basically a lightning round yeah that's what it exists for yeah you see it a blame people or it's easy to blame the fed as a politician for all the problems going right anything you know the market can blame the fed for raise oh stocks went out damn fed like why did they raise rates I mean it's it's the illusion of control so Tom let me ask you this so if Japan raises the rates and typically when you look at Japan raising the rates and us we're not on the same page 75% to 80% of the time not moving together okay we're not 20% of the time to 25% of the time we move together

13:22well we do they do the other 75 85 we don't we raise the rates they raise the rates to the highest and we know at one point these guys had negative point one percent was their rates for about an eight-year period from 2016 to 2024 which that's the extreme complete off some I'm by the way when we're talking about them raising their rates you know what the Japan's federal rate is right now what's that what do you think their rate is right now one or a quarter one percent oh wow they're exactly at one percent right now it's not like it's a astronomical number that they have they're at one percent they stayed negative for eight years why do you think both parties Japan and US are on the same page with this I think they're on the same page for different reasons and I think you don't think there's like a correlation between the two I think they watch each other but I don't think there's as much correlation when you take a look at what what our Fed did or what our Fed did is is something that's non-correlated they said we're raising rates and by the way you guys it teasing me about fighting with Jeff I'm gonna fight you but I agree with I agree with I agree with Jeff on this and I'll go into the specifics this is absolutely a supply shock

14:24and it is a supply shock to be exact that is 65% the barrel of oil which has moved since February 28th when the fund started and it is 35% the 321 crack spread which has been driven by refined reclosures in United States and we have a shortage of refined recapability which also has raised the price of a gallon of gas and worse a gallon of diesel because the economy runs on diesel and that's my point the economy runs on diesel and you can take a look at the inflation you're seeing everywhere from a strawberry to the gallon of gas and you find it's in the supply shock that is related to energy and so they are taking a pay if they if they hear it's what the Fed did I'm going to prove my independence from the president I'm going to raise rates of quarter point not a half not a whole point so not like a not like a 2009 2008

15:25crash and I'm moving things big I'm just going to raise by a quarter point and I'm giving lip service to inflation because I don't want to be wrong I agree with Jeff on that point they basically did this to give them a get out of jail free card if inflation keeps going up well I I tried I raised it a little bit that's the textbook thing to do except the inflation not related to that and when they're talking about next year go down basically what you need is you're only going to get part of it back you stop the war and you get oil running and you get the Venezuelan stuff the heavy crude coming across the Gulf of America coming to Houston okay you're going to get some relief but you're not going to get relief on on refining costs in the US you're only going to get some of it back and so just and raising rates by a quarter point doesn't build another refinery raising rates up a quarter point doesn't open the street of hormones and raising rates by a quarter point so why do it why do it because they wanted to get out of he wanted to prove his independence from the president he wanted to say it's inflation because everybody's saying inflation inflation

16:27inflation inflation and he's getting beat pretty well let me ask you question does does this right now make assets look good because he was another one that they were looking at so yeah so you are no I think he would have done anything different no there's there's technical reasons for this too I mean you don't want to get into the econometrics here they have something called our star which is how they evaluate where interest rate should be and then there's a whole big argument there what I'm asking you is the following could the president have chosen somebody else that would have not raised rates and would have lowered it no in this situation this is very important by the way if you if you can isolate this issue go for because a lot of people are saying maybe he could have chosen somebody else you're saying made a difference so anybody the president would have chosen you're saying it would have been the same result would have been the same because the pressure they get from who the pressure they get from first of all the staff the the federal reserve does take a look at the economy they have all these sophisticated econometric models that tell them they should do this if this set of circumstances arises and that set of circumstances a bunch of these boxes checked so whoever was going to be Fred chairman was going to say I have the raise rates because the staff is telling me I have to raise rates and by the way the issue is the

17:29misunderstanding of inflation they're saying it's inflation it's inflation well wait a minute it's like having it's like having the flu what flu do you have do you common seasonal flu or do you have covid they're saying there is inflation pat and everybody around him is saying inflation so guess what you reach into batman utility belt and you pull out a quarter point increase but they're failing to look at what's causing the inflation it is not overheated driving economy with a case shaped economy by definition the middle class isn't getting jobs and raises and and and wage inflation which drives broad inflation because you have to pay your people more than you have to raise price on your products that's not what we're seeing it's a supply shock inflation but they're sticking with the it's inflation and they made them move look I'm going to default to you guys when it comes to these macroeconomic things I'll just give my two cents if you told us six months ago a year ago that the new chairman of the fed would basically go against Trump and raise interest rates I'd say you got to be kidding me because the sort of the illusion was that Trump was hand picking

18:32exactly who we want in the fed he's basically condemning Jerome Powell and he's going to hand pick his guy what we've just realized is Trump is not a king the guy he picked to be chairman of the fed and his first major move was like yeah sorry Trump inflation's up I'm going against you and by the way it says it was unanimous by the committee completely unanimous so when Trump says this was only for political reasons I don't think so I think they're actually that's what that's what you're saying inflation but I think that's what Jeff is saying and to me I would rather know that and by the way what do you think is a likelihood that Kevin talked to the president telling him that I'm going to be raising the rates before actually doing it do you think that conversation happened what do you think is a lot he was asked about it and he invaded the question but what do you think is likely that they saw of course he does okay so to me what yeah but but I will tell you I don't think Trump is as pissed off as you would have expected him to be I don't think Trump is pissed at Kevin I think Trump is sitting there saying here's the conversation could have gone some like this hey Mr. President I have to raise the rates and they're voting unanimously and I'm

19:37telling you the news first yeah great then Trump may say I'm going to trash it as well and I'm going to disagree with it publicly no I know Mr. President what you're going to do I'm just letting you know as a respect that you're going to know I can't go like that but Trump himself doesn't seem surprised the people I see that are surprised are maybe the guys like Tom maybe the guys that are in the business maybe the guys that are saying you maybe not even you that it's people that like why would they raise the rates why would they do this this is not the right thing to do even Trump doesn't seem surprised did you see the rates did we about we're about to have the clip there where Trump talks about it by the way correction the rates in Japan is one in a quarter right so it's not one it's one in a quarter what is the EU is the clip with that you know the comparison isn't Japan it's how it's the US the Federal Reserve usually acts in concert with every central bank around the world Japan is the outlier political and huh yeah so these again these these things are global you say you know you might as well go forward watch this clip this is Trump go ahead yeah I do I mean I'm relying on Kevin but he's got you know very tough board who's got a board that was put there by a lot of other people and the interest rates are too high

20:42they're not appropriate and I told I talked to Kevin and I said you might as well vote with the board because it's not going to matter the board is very hostile they're very political they're doing the wrong thing they're bunch of politicians or people put on by politicians this is this is my point it's a shame because you can pause it right there my point is he is not pissed off at Kevin the way he was pissed off at power yeah it's a very different relationship because I think even he knew so let me get to the next door here which kind of goes together do you know what the is special about today you know the record numbers on the highest diesel price ever per gallon is today ever in the history of America today's the record ever 645 is today the previous highs that we hit numbers wise was June of 2022 was the previous triple A high that we hit this is right around when the war got started with Russian Ukraine and if you want to go even previous to that when we hit a record high was I think 2008 when diesel hit is it eight I think it is 2008 yes peak of July

21:462008 so 476 that was the peak we had never experienced that before June 22 581 we had never experienced that before and then today 645 diesel we've never experienced this before so you'll hear a lot of people say this directly impacts to some people and they say well but I don't drive diesel it's not about you driving diesel it's about all the trucking companies transportation moving their pain more cost is going to go up they have to pass it down to somebody else you saw burger prices being higher and you're seeing a reflection in different places I'm going to go to one story then Jeff I'm going to come to you first so JP Morgan Chase and Tom Brotted up this morning JP Morgan Chase is being asked about what they think is going to happen with oil give us an opinion will you're an analyst at JP Morgan Chase what do you think's going to happen here's what the analyst said this is a Bloomberg article more than six months after the start of the Iran world JP Morgan Chase oil analysts are stating when many traders have been saying privately the path to the end of the war is increasingly impossible to predict so if you can't predict how it's going

22:51to end I cannot tell you what's going to happen to oil prices several economic red lines the bank assumed the administration would be unwilling to cross including oil above a hundred dollars a barrel gasoline your five dollars a gallon surging treasury yields have already happened making the exit strategy less clear analysts including Natasha Caniva said in a note the market is on edge in our view the analyst wrote oil fair value in September is estimated around $90 a barrel prices through close to 106 and implying the market is pricing in a risk of additional four million barrels that they have supply losses on top of the 10 million barrels that they already disrupted so it seems like the market can't see what's going to happen oil prices what do you say Jeff it's not really about oil it's like you said it's about diesel and gasoline and that's where the problem is the bottle neck and energy has moved from oil to the distillates there's a lack of refinery capacity is time pointed out in the United States which is coming back to haunt us at the worst possible time you've got disruptions with Russian diesel exports which have been banned because they

23:53have their own problems over there you've got issues with the middle east and then all sorts of shortages that are going to start appearing in Asian other places which is going to bid up the price of diesel as well as gasoline with crack spreads and the crack spread is simply a market price that gives you an estimate of how the physical physical reality of the energy market and the diesel crack spread right now is a ridiculously high a hundred and twelve dollars per barrel which is insane but that goes to show you the level of desperation in urgency in the energy market because there's that that that level of a potential shortfall in diesel and we're rapidly rapidly running through all the inventories and supplies as it is so the market is basically saying once that physical shortfall really starts to manifest itself we don't know where prices are going to end up the six dollar six fifty seven dollar range that we're getting now in diesel is probably just the beginning so diesel prices are how you think it's going to hit oh we can see ten dollars ten dollars of these by wins I do no idea that's the thing you know I give me to timeline shortest

24:58latest shortest of the end of the year you're going to hit ten dollars but I'm saying like end of the year it's that soon it's that that close in December diesel could hit ten dollars again and then the consequences what why do you say that based on what sure again the crack spread the crack spread is an estimate of how much of there's a price look dislocation in the market is this a right here that you're talking about the crack spread no that's uh... world inventories can you pull up the crack spread real quick so the crack spreads shows what the crack spread shows you how profitable it is to refine a barrel of oil that's three to one crack spread which is oil which is uh... gasoline plus uh... this little explain it to the average person at the city can understand yeah never heard of the crack spread no no we're gonna go to a point of the hood we've got a lot more fun we've done that before but go ahead when we're talking about crack spread you know things are not good yeah um so the crack spread basically tells you the price of oil depends on who it is but how do you how profitable is it to convert it but no no how could you say how profit it's true it's got 30 min to stay focused

25:58go ahead how profitable is it to refine a barrel of oil into in a three to one crack spread it's three barrels of oil into two two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of a distillate stuff uh diesel it's a little bit different but it's similar idea and so when the crack spread is high what that basically tells you is that it's very profitable to take a barrel of oil and turn it into something useful and the reason it's profitable to do so is because the marketplace says I want that something useful and i'm so desperate for it i will pay a premium to do so so the crack spread is basically a premium on supply Jeff who else agrees with you that diesel could hit ten dollars if the JP Morgan Chase analyst is not making any predictions who else agrees with you that could hit ten dollars i think the marketplace does the marketplace the marketplace that's why the crack spread is that high but also i mean the reason they said we can't model this is because they don't want to say it's a gallon so do me if i were doing the president knows this yeah absolutely okay so if the president knows this and you're in his ear and let's just say that conversation is taking place mr president diesel could it ten dollars by December midterms are when november what is it

27:00keep saying gas prices are going to drop right after the election midterms why is he saying that because he needs to admit terms the average you think the average person's buying that no okay so let's say it does go to ten dollars what happens to america what happens to the market what is what is the average person do if it hits ten dollars if it hits ten dollars what will happen as you'll see layoffs you'll see jobs disappear you'll see companies that are struggling you'll see a lot of weak companies that have been kept alive through refinancing debts start to go under it will be economically every every we like every other energy shock that we've gone through in history it leads into a recession and i think trump knows i've said this from the very beginning trump said a ran is worth the cost if we have to go into a global recession if i lose the midterms really badly it's worth the cost and so everybody expected these you know the the idea that there's these red lines in the energy market yes never never a case you agree with him that irons worth the cost if he gets it if he if he executes it correctly yes it will be long run so you're you're part of a minority group that I know you said okay but you're saying if he gets it done it's worth it why because of the

28:03the short run the the pain in the economy it will be in the short run if a ran actually turns into a you know what we call open could be that's a long run future that's hugely positive so it would be worth the short run economic pain and political pain because it's going to be political pain i think republicans need to steal themselves for how this will work you have this well i just want to say that's when the a ran who started i was one of the you know few voices who was saying i don't think this is a good idea everything like that and i got called a liberal i got called a traitor you know i'm now a horrible person and all this and no longer a conservative shield russian shill you know and everyone was telling me at the time go back and read the comments on my videos about the rand war they said two weeks is going to be done it's all going to be taken care of you know oil prices are going to go way down everything's going to be great we're going to figure it out and now look at where we are you know and i hate to speak to you recently for not being forward at that time well i think we've seen this you know song and dance before with the endless wars and for me i just i don't see it working out any other way you know libyah or a rick afghanistan i mean it all seems to me the same to me and i didn't want america dragged in and that's

29:06not just from a you know americans going overseas and being separated from their families potentially dying but also from this economic standpoint that we're looking at you know it seems to me like you're making companies like lockied martin and bowing incredibly rich with these defense contracts and i know again this people will be like you sound like a liberal right now you know anti-war liberal but that's true to be honest this is this is what it really now i think i think a lot of conservatives would agree with that whole we all know what who was it isinhower before he stepped down where he says be careful with the military industrial complex that how much money they can make and keep the wars going i get that part on it where are you at with this i'll tell you where i'm at with this right now is that you if you take a look at where that crack spread was before it started and i think we were at twenty four twenty six dollars so it's twenty four to twenty six dollars to take a barrel of oil and to turn three barrels of oil and the two barrels of gasoline one barrel diesel that is up now three and a half acts and so i think right now i think we are literally a couple weeks from seeing eight dollars a gallon in some of the high-tech states on diesel like california and it's devastating that

30:11soon as you touch that you're you're playing with fire right now and as soon as you touch eight dollar diesel you're gonna see layoffs and hospitality the hospitality industry which is discretionary consumer spending is going to do a face plant it is absolutely gonna stop it's gonna be like covid similar when i'm saying is similar to covid that the the revenue stop will stop so quickly you have restaurants and independent restaurants that are not supported by national franchise fees and things like that already that are under deep stress or laying people off right now in hospitality you're seeing it and you see the jobs report which included seasonal things that happened specifically in education as everybody went back to school and the jobs report was misread and so what i see right now i see misreadings and i dancer your question directly i'm worried about eight dollar diesel because i think that just that's where the tree starts that the tree right now is leaning i think the tree falls at eight dollar diesel and i think we have a very tough winter and we have a recession like you said with

31:14covid oh sorry i didn't go forward like you said with covid i mean the most important thing with that it was like what 60% of all small businesses in america shut down and that's what it seems like it's going to be again you think this is going to be a that level type crisis all this funny i was just on the phone i always talk to my family and my sister is married and looking to maybe buy a house i'm like i'm not buying a house right now everything's gonna crash soon enough how would i'm 20 or just turn 30 actually last week so how people are trying to congratulate you just like i don't work still pat yeah exactly you know but it seems like the small businesses are all gonna get shut down the big businesses are gonna take another a huge winoff of this i mean yeah it seems to me like it's going the exact same way look i think these are all worthy discussions and discussions that need to be having gas prices oil prices i keep going back to the same thing this is where i respectfully disagree with my super liberal friend will right now if we didn't deal with Iran now when would he have dealt with them because if not trump then who president aoc i will tell you this though you better finish to deal okay i better finish and this

32:18is a guy that you know where i stand i fully agree but if we didn't do it now what would happen in five ten twenty years when they actually have a nuclear weapon when they actually have more capabilities and it's not even a nuclear they were building up their their missile shield that if you've been tried to attack them they would have unleashed hell and fire and fury around any of their neighbors so yes it sucks yes gas prices are high yes inflation is higher yes cornflation and CPIs higher but i will ask you this if we didn't do it now how much worse would have been five ten twenty years from now that's what i keep going back to yes we need to finish the job yes we need to finish the stuff but i'm coming say that Adam but i'm coming i'm coming back to different discussions coming back to how this all started we're figuring out how this is ending Jeff said the best thing Jeff said Jeff said he said if i lose the midterms if i lose this if i lose that if i lose that guess what it's all worth it guess what folks you didn't become the president yeah president trumped it so you in by the way guess what president trump can't say why is the media

33:23talking smack about me and the podcasters that's what happens when you're the president everybody gets to talk trash and you get to say agree disagree fake news whatever but if you're making this massive type of a bold position that you're going to put the Iranian regime out guess what this works like if you do it your face is up there with mount rush more type of conversations and you did something that all these other politicians talked about you close the deal if you don't do it aOC's the president in 2028 it's that simple for me and let me simplify it for you them i'm going to say this to you one more time if he pulls it off jadeal ruby or president in 2028 if he pulls it off one of those two guys will be president and probably more ruby if he pulls it off yeah you're you understand why it's going to be probably more ruby if he pulls it off if he pulls it if he doesn't pull it off here you go socialism's here in america and you know why socialism's going to be here in america because if this goes to eight if this goes to 10 if even conservatives and farmers here's a story

34:28from farmers and i'm going to come to you with this jeff farmers who voted for trump talk about impact of high cost for iran war tariffs were all just in survival mode is what farmers are saying okay so you know we need these guys these are people that are not wanting a lot of recognition they just do it because they love their jobs mad bell 52 years old north carolina farmer who grows soy beans corn and wheat and raises cattle on more than a thousand acres voter for trump analysis soaring fuel fertilizer and equipment price or crushing them i've done this for 34 years i've never worried and stressed like this i haven't a last year we've cut everything we can cut there's nothing left to cut the war with iran and the hootie soudi fighting the squeezed global fuel supplies diesel average about 640 a gallon nationwide nearly double year ago bells combined uh burns roughly six hundred dollars a diesel a day he blew through 35 thousand dollars of annual fuel budget in august tariffs added to everything that we touch has gone up he said uh noting that china's ten dollars a 10 percent retaliatory tariff on soybeans has left the market in limbo bill now says the administration miscalculated the war i think we've

35:30been misled an agriculture was going to mean the forefront right now that has not happened a republican he plans to split us ticket in november we're fighting for survival when running out of options so your thoughts when you hear farmers going through this because the economy yeah i mean that's the i agree with i think the way you look you approach this the macroeconomic and end of it is we can sit here and argue about why what was good idea whether it was it it happened your your action you get to do what you want he does president and the idea the taco stuff that was all garbage i mean trump has said from the very beginning i'm going to do this and i don't think he's going to back down i think he sees a pathway forward and there are there's enough indication out there that you to get off topic a little bit here there's enough indication out out there that he could actually pull this off that the Iranian regime isn't as strong as it appears to be and that maybe the Iranians with but that's the doesn't matter trump says i'm going to do this there are no red lines here diesel hits ten costs of doing business as far as trump is concerned so what we have to do is analyst to say okay this is the what the reality we're working with what happens from there and so farmers are saying we've cut back to bare bones we can't handle ten

36:35dollar diesel without raising prices so prices are going to go up from from for food that's going to happen what happens then well most americans are not going to see an increase in their incomes which means they're going to have to cut back as tamas saying where they're going to cut back we've already seen numbers come out of places like mexico tourism in mexico has absolutely crashed in some places by 20 percent a lot of that that that crash in that decline in and mexican tourism americans americans are not flying to mexico why because they first of all realize that gas prices are high today but food prices are going to be high tomorrow and then food prices and some other things are going to be higher tomorrow that's how you get to the recession so the the argument here isn't whether or not the this this farmers right or you know whether trump was right in doing what he did he did what he did and he's going to keep doing it so we now have to figure out what the macro economic consequences are i'm curious and this farmer is telling us what the macro economic consequences will be i guess i'm just curious what you're saying you know pull it off trump would pull it off what does that even mean like what is pull it off mean what is the benchmark that people could look at and say okay now we finished

37:37it and it's done because looking myself looking at it i mean i have no idea there's three no idea without even there are three things that i think have become crystal clear that the administration defines as success one is a nuclear program which is less less uncertain i think the nuclear program is going to be a done deal easy the second thing is control the straighter from move they're never going to go back they're never going to let Iran have the straighter control the straighter removes this is a we need to decide this issue for now and forever you know when they were talking earlier about the memorandum of understanding and Iran what that was that was all just you know put so or moves has to be wrestled it has to turn into some kind of international control and the third thing is the more contentious one is a regime collapse so what they're what they're betting on is that by squeezing Iran economically which by the way is not a fun thing you know there's a lot of people in Iran who are suffering but that's the you know the the tactic here is to squeeze the Iranian system economically so that the Iranians rise up the moderate factions in Iran rise up they throw off the IRGC which the IRGC is an war of survival which makes it even more difficult

38:39but that's the three things that need to happen for Trump to say we've got this done i think that he was saying yeah that's what were you good yeah i guess it really comes down to the three things you're talking about they sound great but all of those things sound like they need to be monitored by america to continue afterwards because what's the point of doing this i mean you're again Iraq let me Afghanistan i agree with you i'm not arguing for i'm saying this is what trump i think this is i think it's really clear what the maybe it is you know really i mean unless you're keeping american interests americans over there to monitor all these things how do you stop them flim me asking this let me ask you question because i think a lot millions of people side with you and they have the same concern that you have and in in the world if you're a leader of a country and you have your base that voted for you supported for you that are now concerned about this war that's starting we don't want another endless war what could happen with this now that would make you happy what would what would happen for you to say you know what respect cannot believe the president i never thought he would be able to pull this up give me two or three things that could happen specifically with

39:40Iran that will make a 30 year old like you happy getting out i think that's one i think that's the biggest only one really yeah i would say so let me ask you another question so let's just see in the next six to twelve months i are Reagan tried this in the past in 1988 the whole operating pre-inventive George Bush tried to do this with the irgc coups force when he did that in 2007 against Soleimani Obama put sanctions sanctions on Soleimani we know trump killed Soleimani the number two guys so a lot of people have tried to do this with that what happens if in the next six twelve eighteen months Iran the irgc toppled their gun regime change that entire forces out okay pre-2028 election going into it that's been done what does that do to guy like you there's a change of position at all imagine a left brain and a right brain got together and came up with an incredible banking solution the innovative minds at Silicon Valley bank and the pragmatic ones at first

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42:48star wars the mandalorean and grogoo now streaming on disney plus wait pg 13 potentially it just it really looks forward to the future like when sada mucine was killed you know you had people in Iraq and Baghdad celebrating you know at first they were celebrating everything that was going on they were very happy about it but you know then a few weeks later a few months afterwards you look at a rack and the people are not happy anymore and they're not happy now with everything that is i think the issue here isn't that everybody would agree with you if if trump pulls it off everybody would celebrate the issue is i see that again the pull it off what's that's it the issue here is two things though i think even if he pulls it up there's going to be people that are going to say yeah but you know what's the big deal he didn't do anything so when you're a leader you have to understand as a leader i am never going to win will over the only thing will wants for me to finish the war and move on and guess what and trump wins me over another thing no i get that what i'm saying is in this topic i'm not going to win will over and these millions of people whether i pull it off or not no i think there's a lot of people

43:48going to go do it anyway i think what a lot of people have and i'm going to speak for you well if you don't mind i think the issue here or eloquently than me no the issue here is kenny because we've heard this before we heard it i mean the 1990s the no fly zones in a rack that was supposed to put pressure on sada i was saying he was going to we've heard this before you know a rack the rack itself we took over a rack and like you said they were celebrating the rackies were happy and what happened two decades of just chaos hardship and heartache right so it's the problem here is it's very difficult for the average person to see this as a like i don't blame i don't blame nobody does nobody should i still don't think it's a high probability but at least i think there's a plausible enough pathway that trump says we can potentially do pull off regime change credibly difficult to pull off regime change you know uh there were moments where you know my confidence was higher because you had guys like reza palavi that were saying there's going to be defectors in a military none of that happened okay in a military leaders are going to be you know they're going

44:50to come out and they're going to turn against and all of a sudden that did not happen when they turn off the internet you couldn't see what happened iran the amount of people they slaughtered and killed so that's that's scared to crap out a lot of parents that say where are you going stay home worry no more protesting stay home where are you going we'll stay home stay home you're not going anywhere because they're worried they're going to kill your kids next so the irgc suffocated the people that had momentum because it takes the iranian people to make this happen it's not going to be anybody else but the iranian people i think the iranian people right now are sitting there saying look man another time we try to take over the irgc and we failed again we just have to suck it up i need a job to pay my bills i can't feed my kids i think that's where they are right now how much the difference that's the one the one difference that they never did in say iraq in the 1990s the economic blockade i think the economic blockade is having a much bigger impact in what best in real life bests the the navy sitting out there saying no ships coming in out of Iran the economic blockade is really decimating the iranian economy so that's the key difference you saw that's article by bright bar where jd vans talks about the first phase of the war of

45:54second phase of the war basically says the first phase is to destroy the nuclear program and to destroy their conventional military check second phase is to ensure that they're not able to rebuild they're in that process and then scott beset we call them beset but it's beset you know a little flavor to it he said the us is waging the greatest economic isolation campaign in the history of the world against iran through operation economic outcast shout out to andry three thousand right there but i think they're going to do this i don't know when i don't know how it how long it's going to take it's a little bit of a little bit it's at least a possibility that's the thing what i'm saying to you is there's certain okay so who remembers friends there friends there that comes you know before my you know what friends there was no you remember my space of course you know the first social media site ever was friends there that it wasn't my space my space i think was a second or third but friends there calm came up with this concept of hey let's let's create a social media site okay 24 years ago they came out

46:56okay we're going to build this thing and people going to be social networking ever i was like i don't know about that i don't i don't know if we're going to be doing this 8.2 million users is what they had right then others were like well listen this friends right you was pretty good they got 8.2 million users let's do my space and then this guy named what's his name bill or tom or tom tom tom is his name white shirt with a white shirt yeah tom comes out with my space into selling it for half a billion dollars right and tom Anderson was his name so he get they get you know whatever amount of users that they get then what follows my space Facebook and Facebook is now what the trillion out of multi trillion out of company the rest of history no one knows friends there okay some know my space everybody knows that what's the point the point is sometimes when you're doing the impossible if you're you know many times people will say this is the guy that went bankrupt this is the guy that build a business and went bankrupt this is the guy that started this and went bankrupt look at him he's poor he's got nothing going on he may have worked very hard he may have had

48:00the right idea he may have had the right but he may have been little too early for the times of being ready for it but what he did is he left the fingerprints of what things to not mess with for the next guy to pull it off I don't know if this is making sense or not so meaning what Trump is doing here you know what he may end up becoming you know what he may end up becoming he may end up becoming the guy that sets up the ways not to do it on what to face that the next guy comes in is able to pull it off I don't know but if he doesn't pull it off I'm just telling you this if he doesn't pull it off AOC is the president in 2028 you mean a Democrat not a socialist will be a president not a Democrat hopefully America's not a Democrat associate thing Michelle Obama this ask her not a yeah not a not a socialist but not somebody who is a socialist let me say guys if you like what we had to say they contact me on Forenster yeah for sure go go go go go go contact them in Forenser okay let's go to next story next I'm going to get to what we're going through this

49:03is two stories I kind of go together one forps comes out and announces that 580 billionaires are too poor to be on the Forbes 400 list let me say that one more time there's 580 people in America that are billionaires but they're not rich enough to be on the Forbes 590 that are not rich enough to be on the Forbes 400 list imagine how pissed off you would be if that was you so some people read that are they're like wait a minute who gives a shit if these guys are not why should I care for you poor you that you're not in the Forbes 400 and as I'm eltenian see the same story another story comes out where Tom trying to find a 590 story I don't know what page I went on am I missing this year where it's at there it is record-breaking page I'm a let me read this and then I'll go to what other number came up at the same time and I want to ask you guys what you think about the so just having 10 figures is not enough the minimum network to make it on the Forbes 400 list today ready you have to be worth 4.4 billion dollars to be on there 600 million more than a year ago

50:08leaving a record 590 billionaires to poor to make the list up from 500 in 2025 so that means that's an increase of 90 every notable name who fell short Oprah Winfrey median entertainment 3.4 billion not Forbes 400 Roblox founder 3.4 billion not in it Sam Altsman 3.3 billion he's not in it Tim Cook 3.2 billion to poor to be in a Forbes 400 Taddler and Cameron Winklevaz 2.9 billion Jay Z 2.8 billion Taylor Swift 2 billion Kim Kardashian 1.9 LeBron James 1.4 Sanjay Mahorta from Micron 1.2 Arnold Schwarzenegger apparently his net worth is 1.2 billion good for him Beyonce 1 billion Dre 1 billion he got a few other people there now while this story comes out this other story comes out I hope I can find this one if you guys can point me to it you know which one I'm talking about Americans income hits record but lower earners lose ground what pages that one on there it is page 4 let me read this to you and then Jeff I'm going to come to you then time I'll come to you right afterwards US household income and 20 hit a record in 2025

51:13with real median income rising 2.6% to 87 thousand dollars high inflation adjusted level census record began in 1967 while official poverty level to 2 10.2% but the gains were uneven incoming income among the wealthiest 10% of the American rose 1.7% while the bottom 10% saw no significant change and the top 5 of the top 5th of households captured 52.4% of all income versus 3%. So you know Jeff the concept of rich getting richer poor getting poor is that what's happening here is there something deeper we're not looking at no that's exactly it the economy doesn't work and people realize that I mean the simplest way to think about it is okay if you have 100 people 99 people their income is 50,000 and it goes up 1% to 50,500 the 90 the 100th person it has income of a million and it goes up a million million 1 the aggregate statistic looks good because the average the entire income average income goes up but if you pulled those people what would end

52:14it up happening one person would say the economy is great 99 people would say the economy sucks so it's the difference between averages and what people actually experience and this is a real phenomenon it has been happening especially since 2021 and 2022 really the lockdowns ever since the lockdowns it has been they call it a K shaped Chris Martinson called it an i-shaped economy which is probably a better a better representation of it people to top are doing well people at the top have no problems they are able to shelter their wells because they have access to financial markets and leverage and liquidity that nobody else does if you're only acid is your labor your labor has been devalued since 2022 in a substantial way so you've been made poor and people realize that and so we have all these statistics that say if you're at the top you're doing well and if you're at the bottom you're not doing well the problem is there are more people going into the bottom than there is going to the top so while there may be 590 billionaires who don't make the Forbes list how many thousands and millions of americans are falling into the bottom part of the economy well if you ask americans they'll tell you i brought a couple of charts here i don't know counter if you

53:17can bring them up this is the one reason why republicans really need to be really need to be on alert for the election here americans view of the economy is exactly the opposite of what you hear in the media so you hear you know Kevin Warsch talk about how resilient the economy is americans are want to they want to flip him the finger and say what are you talking about the university of michigan consumer survey this is a survey that goes back into the 1960s they've been doing monthly surveys since the late 1970s the american's assessment of their own current financial situation today is equal to the worst levels of each past recession that we've had since the 1970s that's how americans think about the economy not just their own financial situation what they think about the lack of job how did they measure this how's this measured it's measured the amount of people who say that the uh their financial situation is better minus about people who say they're sent financial situation is worse plus minus so the plus minus chart so what we're saying is more many more of vast majority more people think that they're worse off than a year ago if you look at the other charts it's unemployment it's uh income reasons for what we just saw in the other chart

54:21every single one of these measures coming from americans and this cuts across political divides demographics this is widespread change americans assessment of the the economy their place in the economy is at lows that we associate with the worst part of the time so then i got a question for you if you go on this here and if you look it from 2010 2008 nine which we know what happened eight nine market crash right there at the bottom that i'm looking at massive drop off that's post bush then you have obama comes in and it goes up and if you go to sixteen trump comes in spikes all the way up then you got 2020 2021 Biden comes in massive drop off and it goes all the way down and trump comes in 2024 2020 so 2025 2026 it drops off so a part of this how much of this you put on him how much of this you put on that oh zero this is not trump this isn't this is not so who is this you can argue about it it's starting the massive drop off there is actually under the first trump administration that's during covid the right down so you could you could make the case that you know

55:23the lockdowns were the original sin the cares act a massive explosion of government spending that's a lot of it too but this this this transcends politics this is not partisanship it's not a Biden economy versus a trump economy and trump fixes the Biden economy it's just so back that we made a whole bunch of things so a president cannot do anything to positively impact this is what you're saying what i'm saying is it was baked in five years ago and trump's mistake is the same mistake the politicians made all throughout the world was saying this was Biden's economy i'm going to fix Biden's economy remember trump came in office it's i'm going to build the greatest economy in the world he never showed up said that because it's not in his hands to do that it wasn't as simple as if we replaced Biden with trump the economy fixes itself who's in there it's whoever decided we should lock everything down and uh um you know spend all that money on cares act and then they follow up uh as follow up bills where the government expanded itself you know exponentially so more house more the house of representative congress i think at that time you know the cares act it was a bipartisan act i think everybody in 2020 has their hands dirty whether

56:25be the trump administration and then Biden just continued it we had a rapid massive expansion in the government in 21 and 22 that never returned the emergencies over but government spending is as high as it was back when we were doing the pandemic uh so can you do me if i would go back to the previous chart that he showed the plus minus this one right here so if you look at it i wish that thing was that okay it's gone so 2008 2009 we know where that is today i mean to have those two comparison together what's the other one oh three oh four and then you got 91 92 and then you have 1980 that's Carter where interest rates were 16 percent 17 percent 18 percent which had the double dip in 80 is there a correlation you see between all those or no the each of them is a different reasoning well they're business cycles so these are recession cycles the reason why confidence starts to go back up is because the business cycle hits at bottom and starts to go back and the question the bottom no that's the that's what we're just talking about $10 $10 per gallon diesel guarantees we're not at the bottom

57:30Tom and i'm at eight and the tree falls um what i see here you're at eight and the tree falls at eight dollar diesel the tree falls i think the tree is leaning right now and i so what americans are saying is the economy bad today his stats he brought up americans are not taking short term vacations to mexico and what we're seeing this summer they're not taking even shorter term vacations just to drive to six flags we're seeing it so you're saying Catalina is going to get a lot of business Catalina island and right well if you go back to this here's Catalina wine mixer here's what i think people need to pay attention to but you need to pay attention to is that the prior chart that Jeff showed that means that right now two things happen on covid we shut down the economy and people were unable to make you know money and save number one number two we printed a bunch of money in the process and inflated the piss out of everything that was there and then that labor except labor except their wages and so when they went back to work everything was way up including houses we

58:35started migration in america what we had with covid is i would argue is been almost as cataclysmic as two thousand and eight we just didn't see it that way in terms of the net economic change that happened to the facility and situation of the average american consumer that's my headline they were paying for the mistakes of 2020 and 2026 so it was the big market crash in away and i look print covid lockdown savings those three things came together and were as bad as the crash of 08 and then the government kept spending that the same level in terms of the deficit which was the trailing i put those four things together that's why this thing goes from 22 to 26 that's why the consumers are well the thing is that you don't see this you look at the economic statistics and they look relatively decent which is why j j pal now kevin war skates on tv and says the economy is resilient because you look at the aggregate statistics they look okay but what americans are saying is okay the numbers might look good but that's not my experience i experienced something

59:38completely different and they're for one case their iris if they haven't withdrawn are okay because of the index driven market okay fine but at home just trying to take care of the increase in price and energy insurance you mean never mind in energy go look at what happened to insurance since 2020 health insurance home insurance you know car insurance go look around but this also explains why trump did the first of all the trump accounts right because most people don't have access to the stock market and people who do have access is mostly through the retirement assets which is not spendable real income and it's also why he brought up the five thousand dollar dividend at the midterm convention that's because what he's they know what's coming they know that americans view the economy is not good i'm dubious on the second but i'm with him on the trump accounts i think he's saying okay guys let's build savings for everybody born in america starting now i don't think that's a bad idea that is not with the five thousand will bots well right now you have millennials my my age versus baby boomers at the age of thirty five on average baby boomers owned

1:00:42about twenty one percent of this nation's wealth now you have millennials at about the age of thirty five on average only three percent of the nation's wealth is it that high it doesn't seem like it yeah it might be even lower now you know this this step but that it that is absolutely insane to me the the value that people have in this country who are my age i mean we own basically nothing you all nothing and be happy as they as they tell you you know but in what is it two thousand five the median house price of a house was you two hundred boomers with millennials yeah what is the average age of a millennial uh this is thirty yeah this would be about thirty five i'm actually not surprised with those numbers i'm not surprised with those numbers compound interest is scary the promise let me just finish my book i'm i'm i'm going to give my point compound interest for me is scary what happens scary um you know i would watch a guy that would come to the office at eight o'clock in sales leave at ten and he would make twenty calls more than his peer and he would send cards to all his clients and the other guy wouldn't in one year they made the same money

1:01:46in the second year the guy would make ten percent more income third year twenty five percent by the fifth year he's making two hundred percent more income and it's not even close and the other guy would say i can't believe it he got lucky it's a no man he just would make twenty more calls than you would and compound interest is truly a real thing now let me go to the other side what i believe uh i'm talking about guys that are under thirty years old is i'd like to see something where we don't tax anybody under the age of thirty for the first five hundred thousand dollars they make they keep all of it no federal income tax meaning you make three hundred it's your money you make two hundred it's your money make hundred hundred percent is your money you make six hundred you pay taxes on a hundred thousand dollars of it why because if if in in the business our guys it i was an insurance company that they changed the complaint to benefit guys that have been around for twenty years not benefit the newest guy that was getting recruited and i would always say if the opportunity is no longer good for the newest person you no

1:02:49longer have a good business the newest person needs to have the same opportunity to make a lot of money as the guy that was there five ten fifteen twenty years and we don't have that today so for me if we can find a way that somebody's getting into the marketplace zero taxes upwards of a half a billion half a million dollars they make let them keep that money we need to increase people getting married having kids buying a house and they simply don't have that today and that's a scary thought if the incentive doesn't benefit the youth you have a very and if they pay a price for boomer say no no no no no don't give up my benefits no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no politicians gonna run up there and say hey we need to raise the retirement age for boomer's five more years nobody would get elected with that no one not a single soul even though they may be right not a single soul would win a campaign if they went there and say retirement age needs to be increased nobody even right now if I said this look how many people are gonna get pissed off at me I'm telling you look how many people gonna be like oh you know screw you you don't know you're talking from a place of you know you made the money did this I grew up in a family where my mom and dad were poor my dad worked at a cashier at a ninety nine cents or an

1:03:50angle would California you know yesterday I'm talking to my my knee you know I'm doing physical therapy because the ACL my dad is sitting there saying he'd reminded of a story about fourteen years old how he scared he was about me because a guy named Vladimir Al-Hasey who's a great pastor in Torlox and who's the area his father was one of my heroes and when I was fourteen years old trouble teenager I joined a basketball league called the new century city basketball association in Echo Park we played with blood crib you know diamond we played with every bar TBR tuna reel you tell him 18 we played with everybody all the trouble kids were playing basketball together and then my dad's telling the story to this guy Carson and I'm just listening to him is I remember one day we're at Las Vegas and we're we took him there and my son didn't come up till two o'clock in the morning I'm in the street we got into fight with five guys from New York guns out and I'm hanging out with the couple of these guys in a car berb prank that I say the guys driving a car at fourteen fifteen years old is that's Cadillac my life's going this way my life's going

1:04:51this way and this guy got a hold of me and changed my life so I know what it is to be poor and it sucks I know what it is to go through the price I went to the military I was hoping I would do 20 years because they gave me a pension plan my plan was I was going to go to 20 years on the military I understand that pain today we got to figure out a way to get the youth to have incentives to have kids to get married and to buy a house and we can't just look the other way and say look how many billionaires were producing they got to feel it but at the same time we have to find a way to say look everybody's got to pull down a little red wagon you know there's got to be something that everybody's got to give up here as we're going through this next space and spending needs to kind of lower a little bit spending the amount of things that we're spending money on right now it's getting a little bit out of control right I'll come to you then I'll come to Jeff yeah imagine if this stability piece and the innovation piece were each other's missing piece for citizens bank and Silicon Valley bank are combining financial security and innovation expertise to create a full suite of solutions for all your business needs with the scale to back every stage of growth from

1:05:55pre-seed IPO and beyond you have everything you need to make your big ideas click into place first citizens bank and Silicon Valley bank it's the best of bank worlds this episode is brought to you by Google Chrome you think you know a browser but Gemini and Chrome that's new it can help you with practically anything on the web like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks Gemini and Chrome is here for it ready to make anything online make sense there's no place like Chrome check responses set up require compatibility and availability very 16 plus Yamabah Resort and Casino at San Manuel is bringing the biggest laughs to the stage break taboos with Ali Wang on August 28th and 29th enjoy Ralph Barbosa's dry humor on September 18th and 19th and don't miss Nikki Glazers on apologetic comedy November 19th tickets on sale now at Yamabah theater dot com only at Yamabah Resort and Casino celebrating its 40th anniversary you in must

1:06:59be 21 to enter this episode is brought to you by chat GPT hey it's Bill Simmons from the Bill Simmons podcast have you guys heard about chat GPT work it's the new way to use chat GPT for bigger multi-step projects and when you need more than just answers give chat GPT work access to your apps and files and it can create real work documents like spreadsheets slides and structured reports get started at chat GPT dot com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans Star Wars the Mandalorian and Grogu is now streaming on Disney Plus what are you waiting for hop on the must-see galactic adventure comes home on Disney Plus this is the way our only chance is to work together on the life this game always wear your seatbelt star wars the Mandalorian and Grogu now streaming on Disney Plus

1:08:01PG 13 I mean you can definitely I mean before 1912 there was no federal income to exactly not totally for for all of that but the amount of expenditure we got right now the amount of how big the governments balloon into to cut the whole thing they tried doge what look what happened yeah the richest man in the world got fired yeah exactly you know but the companies of glory by the way the compound interest exactly when they've been Trump got into it yeah the commentator I mean I dropped out of college to move to Los Angeles to go and work for Prager you this was in 2017 you crushed it by the way thank you thank you there there weren't conservative influencers are conservative people like that you know it was a completely new thing and I saw what was going on in the world and I said and I'm gonna work really hard I lived in a horrible bachelor apartment in Hollywood California where I'd wake up with cockroaches crawling on my face before I am you know eating rich crackers and turkey with no kitchen you know and so I get that working hard and putting in that and and you can of course make something of yourself this is America but there is no doubt that there aren't more hurdles today for young people than any other time I think in American history

1:09:02I mean just looking at minimum wage laws I mean minimum wage laws are something that keep people out of actually you know making money in the future you know it's not letting businesses decide how much they're going to actually pay people making it especially hard for black Americans to get low entry jobs to then move up in the world all these different hurdles that are making it very much more hurdle what what else is it hurdles for the youth yeah well one thing you know you have artists that's ever been yeah I mean one thing we're talking about housing right and one of the reasons why housing is gone so expensive you know it's not the only reason but you have these big hedge funds coming in and buying up single-family homes in this in this country right and if you're doing that then you're making it so I mean how much it's obviously going to inflate the price of the house they change a few months back that they can't do that anymore and you know to kind of prevent them from pushing the way because they're raising the price of everybody's sinners I'm just going to be renting there's even a story in here about just renting yeah what else would you say outside of that all the biggest one has got to be a legal immigration if you have two houses that are built and someone cuts in line and comes and gets government benefits and says well I need a house too of course that's going to push the supply up so illegal immigration the hedge funds the

1:10:05the not really good jobs for young people that are making them passionate and creative people you know they're just replaceable people and in stupid email jobs all day in some big techie city I think the biggest problem is young men especially right now don't feel like they have a lot of purpose or meaning in their lives and if you take that away from a civilization the entire thing crashes you know even if you know we have all this kind of like high-level economic stuff and things like that but really it's going to come down to the young men finding something of value to do in their lives otherwise what do you do with all of them Jeff it's the opportunity you guys don't have the opportunity compound interest you're exactly right and the the issue here is that millennials and Gen Z two generations now have never had the opportunity to do what you're talking it's not a case of they're not working hard enough that's not it at all so I brought some more charts because I've got charts for everything there is some of that I will say maybe not working but that's not to people and they'll be like man this guy came in he thought he could just work from home every day and and not show up and so there is a lot of their people my age who did the same thing yeah the boomers

1:11:06complained about generation X it's it's it's it's old as human nature like you know the kids are always bad right but this is a macroeconomic thing and it goes back to 2008 if you look at the chart here which shows you income income fell off trend in 2008 and never went back to the point that we're now five trillion behind that trend that's five trillion dollars in real price adjusted income that never happened that's income you know baby boomers got their got their their jobs their incomes their retirement savings their houses they got a they got out all that stuff after 2008 things were different people your generation they are in the bottom part of the K because there isn't jobs in income so you don't have a chance you don't have a chance to build your career in the same way you don't have a chance to buy a house at age 28 29 or 30 and build your equity because everything comes with equity people who have who have entered the economy after 2008 have experienced a very very different life than people from before 2008 and the numbers show this the problem is nobody

1:12:08knows this because all we've heard from ever since 2008 is that everything's just fine we also have to go into the college question because the price of college in this country's gone way past the the point of inflation for how much college and there's that you know you know and then you can't what do you get out of it it also can't file bankruptcy on a student loan from the government time yeah and if you take a careful look right here great chart Jeff let's see if we could look at the slope of the line from the spike down in 2020 the covid if you draw a new line on that pat it's even flatter than the 2.9 percent worse than that it's actually rolling over it's correct it's not too took point 2 percent it is flat it is dead flat so now you go from 3.1 compounded 2.9 but with you look careful after covid you adjust it it's almost flat so you know this is this is the reality when that's why I call it you know after covid I say it was as bad as 2008 but we didn't see it that way because covid was over we took off the mass we went back outside we were working again and the market was up that's which was protecting 401k's and iris it was it is it

1:13:14continues to but it's flat and so that explains why Americans think that this is as bad as every recession because the data shows that's actually the case and the stock market has made it worse and that's where a lot of the you know the you the frenzy over socialists and comes from because you the stock markets at all time highs are very near all time high yet most Americans experience this economy so you think okay if this is if this is a booming economy where the stock markets at record highs I'm I'm opting out I need something different I need something to actually work for me look I might be the the center on this one I think this is the greatest country in the world I think we have the greatest economy in the world I think when we talk about like what's the famous Churchill quote uh democracy is the worst form of government except for everything else has been tried pick a country in the world you would move to with all your complaints about America go ahead well this is not everyone wants to complain well inflation's a little high the cost of housing I get it I mean the same country as you guys paying the same price but I hear me out but I think at the end of the day it's like where else you going like you're not going to trade all your

1:14:19issues for America whatever it is for any place in the world so listen I believe in personal responsibility I believe in personal finance what I had to do just like pbd I was a south beach nightlife party boy that knew everybody and was having a great time in my life but I was broke as hell so I had to go basically move out of Miami move into a house with five of my buddies I paid nothing in rent the cockroach story the ramen noodle story and my first year in business I made five thousand dollars I stuck it out I was making a million cold calls a month next year I made a hundred thousand dollars than the economy busted in 2008 and you know what I'd have figured out the bottom line for me was was this one major thing you can't save your way to becoming a millionaire you have to own assets so at some point you're going to basically have the tipping point where you're going to say all right what you know what's what it uh you pointed at me time what's up now I was waiting for him to finish okay oh I tell you point I'm gonna be because of a text no sorry no no no so to me and this is a weird analogy but I've been watching a lot of Thomas Sol lately the great Thomas

1:15:24Sol he said there's no solutions for anything there's only trade-offs so what's the trade-off okay so maybe you're not going to get your own apartment buddy maybe you're not going to buy a house buddy maybe you're gonna have to get a roommate cool maybe you're not going to drive a BMW you're going to drive a Kia all good maybe you're not going to talk on Tuesday every Tuesday and you're going to eat at home it's all good you're still living in America and and and and and I'm so sorry that we're going to have a moment of silence for for Jay-Z and Beyonce and Taylor Swift and Oprah that they're not in the Forbes 500 but they still own assets and there's still billionaires and you can be a millionaire too if you just work hard work earn saving and best Adam I see we're coming from but some of that argument is why people get so pissed off yeah at that the generation above them well I think what Pat said I mean I agree with you I agree with you it's a greatest country I agree that there's a great economy but the reason Pat brought up his point about hey under the age of 30 we won't tax you up to 500 I want to help people with a ramp and you know Jeff talks about

1:16:30we need wage growth I talk about wage growth as well we agree you know dramatically on that point and one of the ways you can give people wage growth is you can give them spending growth the ability to spend not on credit not on credit cards which are at 1.4 trillion right now and you've got BNPL that's strangling people because they decided to use that what he's talking about is let's in this economy in the situation what if we help these people under 30 to get a ramp up on the way by the way not to cut you off I think it's a great idea but how soon is that idea going to be implemented a year five years ten years 20 years let's live in reality today though wait a minute it's like okay at us and you're going to invent the light bulb how long is it going to take you have to start some place I agree but that's not going to help somebody pay the rent up with an idea that says I've got an idea we've got a problem why don't we get together I love the idea I'm not I I fully support the idea even when you brought it up the bench up here he loved the idea that's not going to pay your rent today so what can be done today oh you're talking about Thomas Sol and one of the great stats that he had which might not be as relevant before or after COVID

1:17:35was that 25 or you have like 25 people percent of people in the bottom quarter of economics by the end of their life 75% of those people will have been in the top quarter of the economics in this country at some point in the economic mobility exactly yeah that's what they said the middle class is shrinking it's like well if you actually look deeper it's because a lot of the middle class entered the upper class because of compound interest right but you were talking about getting a compound interest you're stuck in the box Jeff Jeff I'm sorry though so go ahead what's your solution you just you just sold massive crisis if I'm a 22 year old watching this I'm depressed right now no I'm wait a minute no but I should be you should not know you would you tell your son that I'm sorry I'm not wired that way I don't speak that language I don't relate to that language so here's my question for you if you're telling me that it's the shittiest time to be in give me ideas go ahead what can I do this first of all I want to address one thing first is that this no no no sir you address this is quite first you're not put me this is not a US only problem in

1:18:37fact the same chart can be found everywhere else around yeah but we care about you know what I'm saying is that this is not strictly a US problem what I want to know from you is yeah how do we fix this yeah give me that because anytime I hear people that are just selling crisis crisis it's like when you work in a company and you got employed that's not working this is not working that okay great give me just I think we should change our benefits and do this okay fantastic let's have the conversation so walk me through your ideas if you had influence what would you do all right go back to that can you pull up the chart again yeah let's go to it which one the 5.9 4.9 go for it it's circled what what what what happened in 2008 because that's where you see the quantitative easing what happened to cause the 2008 what was the 2008 crisis heavy borrow because look at what what mean what this chart is telling you yeah something broke in 2008 okay now the reason the socialists are winning is because they say the same thing they say something broke in 2008 in this free market capital sure so we're going to replace it with socialism they're correct about the

1:19:38one part obviously way wrong about the other part what broke in 2008 to the point that the entire global economy changed the entire nature of the global economy changed after 2008 this is the problem nobody knows what happened in 2008 what broke in 2008 was the entire global monetary system it's the same thing that happened in the 1930s why was the great depression a great depression because the monetary system that existed before 1929 broke down permanently in fact this is the reason why Ben Bernanke was famous he said look after after 1929 1930 the banking system got broken it never recovered we never had a recovery same exact thing happened here in 2008 the monetary system that we had the euro dollar system what why I call it euro dollar university broke and it didn't break on a temporary basis it broke in a way that was permanent quantitative easing didn't fix it the Federal Reserve zero-interested policy didn't fix it it was a permanent rupture in the global monetary system which is why you see this chart everywhere around the world so the answer is to unbreak what happened in 2008 which argues for rejiggering the monetary

1:20:43system so that it actually functions in the way that we needed to so that's the solution the problem is getting people to that so I'm so sorry to interrupt wait a minute yeah okay so how do you fix it how do you fix it there's certain things you can't don't fix right exactly okay so so now if that's but you're not going to like the answer but but I actually want to know what you're going to say because the only thing I care about is well I'll tell you what what I care about I want to know how you fix it I want to hear what you're going to say how we fix this without things like cryptocurrencies and digital currencies to develop new systems the problem is we go global economic history goes through these periods of cycle okay there'll be four the 1930s we had a period of 30 year period of tremendous prosperity people called the the roaring 20s but actually the zeroes the tens and the 20s and then what happened is the monetary system human nature takes over we get greedy we do things we shouldn't do the monetary system breaks down we've done that for for history always yeah human nature is undefeated yeah so the monetary system broke down and what happened

1:21:43afterwards we went through a two-decade two twenty twenty five-year period were things sucked for a very long time there's nothing you can do about it you have to sit there and grit your teeth and bear it until bottom-up processes take the have time to develop yep that fix the problem and get out of it so we go through these long period cycles so we're in a long period cycle where we screwed everything up in the 90s and 2000 we want way too far so far I have it's what do you do with what what part of crypto technology go ahead monetary system needs to be replaced but it can't be done overnight and by flipping a switch you have to you have to give it time enough to become and replace the monetary system how many people need to make a decision for that to happen nobody it's it's a bottom-up process it's decentralized the monetary system that is happening and a part of that is it is okay so the pot if you want to put a positive spin on this pet the positive spin is where twenty some were almost twenty years into the downside of the cycle which means we're twenty years closer to the upside so you know you know you know where I'm at with this where and like whether the people that will like this and relate to this awesome I can't

1:22:49wait to meet you the people that won't like this listen I also respect you have your own opinion and I'm not comfortable with people of green or disagree with me it's very comfortable in our environment let me go through a couple things I wrote here okay number one people are driven by incentives on what's going to happen to their lives I trust people going to make the right decisions to have their incentives for their lives whatever that may be okay number two people that have assets how hard will they work to protect what they have we know people will work harder to protect the twenty dollars that they have then to go make another twenty dollars a guy store twenty dollars from them they'll run ten miles to get that twenty dollars back from the guy but they won't go put additional ten dollars ten hours in a week to make an additional four hundred dollars or three hundred dollars but they're going to protect what they have okay so people are going to make the decisions to say what I currently have right now I'm going to protect number three dream everybody has dreams everybody has dreams and they want to pursue some are going to give up on the dreams some are not going to give up on the dreams whoever you listen to will either destroy

1:23:51your dreams or it's going to get somebody someone to continue I've gone to churches where the main thing the pastor wanted to talk about is the end of times is here the end of times is here the end of times is here you're going to hell the end of times is here the end of times is here I got it I understand I've read Revelation the end of times no but it's right now it's or you see it's reminding of what happened in the city of Corinth and well watch what happened in Las Vegas and only fans and Sophie Ray and all I got it I understand Tinder totally get it all right so what do I do if it's the end of times is here do I just go through that pastor and say that's why I'm worked that hard I'm just going to sit around and not do anything because the end of times is here the end of times is here that message doesn't create urgency in a way of going out there and fixing things I'm sorry I don't relate to that and I've been on a lot of these meetings I wasn't a meeting one time where many money home told me Mormon man very successful financially phenomenal guy good family guy he says Patrick don't go into the night just got promoted to a position of CEO he says I don't want you to go into this meeting he said why do you not want me to

1:24:54go into this meeting he says Pat I want you to host the meeting I brought up who was a guy Chris Gardner from what was the movie pursuit of happiness about Mary Lou retten up she's like right here and I look like it's my daughter but it's like it's Mary Lou retten and then after hosting this meeting Cal Ripken Jr. was speaking at about you know consistency and not giving up and then I'm going into the CEO session this is Patrick I'm telling you writes me a letter don't go into this meeting so the more he says don't go into this meeting guess what I want to do go to the meeting there's 56 people something like that in the meeting I said can you just tell me why you don't want me to go into this meeting this is Pat you're on fire you're added to this so positive you're going to have big things that's happening to you these people 90% of them all they do is bitch and complain how hard the businesses today don't go into this meeting what do I do I go into this meeting and guess what I sit there in here all the men I respected and admired guess what they did for three straight hours imagine if this stability piece and the innovation piece were each others missing piece

1:25:55for citizens bank and Silicon Valley bank are combining financial security and innovation expertise to create a full suite of solutions for all your business needs with the scale to back every state of growth from pre-seed IPO and beyond you have everything you need to make your big ideas click into place first citizens bank and Silicon Valley bank it's the best of bank worlds this episode is brought to you by Google Chrome you think you know a browser but Gemini and Chrome that's new it can help you with practically anything on the web like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks Gemini and Chrome is here for it ready to make anything online make sense there's no place like Chrome check responses set up require compatibility and availability very 16 plus for the first time ever Yamaba Resort and Casino at San Manuel is giving away a new Rolex watch for every club Serrano card dear play with your club Serrano card and on September 20th you could be one of five winners of a Rolex watch plus all winners will advance to the finale at Palm's

1:26:59Casino Resort Las Vegas for a chance to take home a rarity the second Mustang dark horse ever produced on September 26th two properties six winners only at Yamaba Resort and Casino your California to Vegas connection details at Yamaba dot com must be 21 or older to enter participate please gamble responsibly this episode is brought to you by chat GPT hey it's Bill Simmons from the Bill Simmons podcast have you guys heard about chat GPT work it's the new way to use chat GPT for bigger multi-step projects and when you need more than just answers give chat GPT work access to your apps and files and it can create real work documents like spreadsheets slides and structured reports get started at chat GPT dot com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans Star Wars the Mandalorian and Grogu is now streaming on Disney plus what are you waiting for hop on the must-see galactic adventure comes home on Disney plus this is the way our only chance is to work together on the life this game

1:28:04always wear your seatbelt star wars the Mandalorian and Grogu now streaming on Disney plus wait PG 13 these are people that have been in insurance business for 25 30 years 20 years and I've only been in the business for five years all they're doing is bitching and whining because 2008 is the worst time to sell insurance is the worst time to be in the stock market do you know my business my business oblivious PBD who doesn't have an MBA and all these other guys are the brilliant guys from 2002 till the day I sold the business we never had a down year ever every year we grew what do you want me to tell you what do we go through from oh to to to 2000 and when do we sell the business time 2022 we sold the business we went through COVID we went through oh eight market crash we went through bullshit bullshit every freaking you know our numbers we grew every year and I'm not a brain scientist you know the school the no we just grew but money had a very good point when he said if you go in a meeting like this and you're on other people

1:29:10who are no longer excited about the future they're gonna rub off on you and you have to fight it off whether you know and I went in and I came I said money I understand your your point already what you were saying I fully got it I'm not those guys I don't relate to those guys so for me whether you agree what what I'm saying or not and all this other stuff and you want to be a pastor that says the end of the world is coming great don't go do anything about your life just sit home and go collect coupons and what do you call a clip and coupons and take your cash that you got from the government and find a way to get a regular job and don't give your best don't read any business books don't go pick up any new material but this guy didn't become sick self because he sits right works as a self I think one thing we have to do as individuals and leaders in a time like this is we can openly talk about the shit that hit it is hitting the fan we can't criticize the president and I do five thousand dollars to win a vote horrible idea horrible idea to win the votes affordability it's not a real thing it's a hoax it's a real thing they're going through it yeah it's not it's not it's not it's not it's not it's not it's not it's not no we should look into it and see and get these guys to come and educate us we don't have all the

1:30:13answers you can be a billionaire still know nothing about a different industry I can be a 47 year successful financial guy and I want to listen to what because I want to know what 30 year olds are thinking about right now really do I want to know what he's going through I want to learn from the I can learn from a nine year old kid that's been playing the piano for five years he can teach me piano as I know nothing about piano and out of play I just don't like to listen to it so I think that's the mistake in the blind spot that we have in the White House right now where we're kind of like you know when you have success you kind of feel like you are you know everything is going you have to listen to everybody but at the same time if there's one thing I flipping respect about this guy that's working at the White House is the level of optimism he has whether he's right or wrong everybody can learn from that the guys 80 years old working harder than anybody else answering questions 24-7 to people that are bitching and whining at him and he takes all the calls I'm trying to get a hold of president to give an idea to him on how to help out with affordability you know how quickly she got back to me she said the president's schedule called with you can you

1:31:13get in the call with us I got a call schedule right after the saying hey we got to do something with affordability I'm trying to impose my ideas whether they do or not I don't know but but I don't I don't relate to this you know and here's what went wrong and here's one yeah okay then what then what what can I do to fix it give me that if I lose 90% the audience because you don't relate to this message I'll do this show by myself and listen to my own self I'm not changing this message and I don't think Americans we need to go subscribe to the fear porn nonstop have the difference I want to know why Thomas mass he wants to get hexa to resign why give me the motive what's your motive I want to know why speaker Johnson wants to shut down let's learn and talk to each other why do you want to do this stuff but if we lose the optimism and we lose that enthusiasm and we lose the fact that we believe this the greatest country in the world holy shit horrible times around the corner holy shit I'm not I'm not gonna do that I'm not gonna do that I'm not gonna subscribe to that camp and I think we need to a little bit go back to the here's the five things that are going on that I fully disagree with that shitty but these are my three solutions

1:32:16here's what's a horrible thing and and our brains collectively your brilliant your brilliant your brilliant we're sitting here with I'll skip on Adam Adam just like but I'm a regular guy that's just curious I don't need one point in GPA just so you know I don't even put myself in a brilliant category I put myself in a category I'm curious I want to learn I want to talk to everybody and see what can we do to make this thing the greatest country in the world yeah period I think that's kind of what we need to go to you know you see churches that congregations decline and all they do is bitch and wine and any see churches that are growing pastor saying hey matter what happens you're gonna see your father you're gonna see your late mom you're gonna see your family we got a place that's waiting for us I think a little bit we are a little bit subscribing too much to fear porn and listen I'm sorry about the rant I went on right now but I think we need a little bit of that in our house so when we're going to dinner with the kids and a wipe it with the rent I think it's a little too much it's a little too much so this this discussion isn't about giving up this discussion is about being honest thank you I don't mind being

1:33:20honest no the honest discussion is when Will says it sucks not to look at him and say you're just a lazy piece of shit no one saying that though they are no there's lots of people but I don't but I don't work hard no but you don't work hard by the way Jeff I will tell you part of them are also right sure so he even said it he says there are people that are also right so so this thing to be like we're a hundred percent right on everything we're oblivious if we think that when when Mike you know when my kids like I have a credit score for people who complain you know what my credit scores will people that complain here's how it works Tom has a high credit score if Tom complains I'm listening of something that's going on in the company my wife she's not a complainer but if she tells me something's going on in the family guess what I'm listening Melva my nanny if she comes and says hey daddy I don't want to say this but this person disrespects me a lot and I don't want to start a fight I just think they look at me as a nanny and I think I'm more than a nanny to I've been with you for 20 years I said who's talked to you like that this she never I'll go talk to

1:34:23that I can personally confront and say I said listen if you talk to her again like she works for you you're gonna have a problem with me this is not just a nanny to us this is a blood to me on what she's been with me for 20 years so I watch who's complaining and I watch who's and to be honest with you are people that are just complainers but then there are people like him he's working he's doing this thing I want to listen I want to know what he has to say but we have to know there is also both sides of the extreme side of the story that we got to give a little bit credibility all I'm saying is this if I got a brain like Jeff Snyder I want to see the solutions you're suggesting that's what I want to hear I want to use a guy like your brain to come back and say pat last time remember when you said this let me tell you what five solutions I got I'm looking forward to that podcast I want to hear that I think all of us needs to be challenged a little bit to think that way this may not be a popular thing but I think this mindset was popular 2000 years ago I think this mindset was popular a thousand years ago and I think it's popular today yeah and the only difference is there's more noise today than ever before because we all have podcasts we all have

1:35:23a show and we all are talking and we all are tweeting and we all are saying stuff and oh my god let's see what that person said I'll give you the final thoughts and we'll go to the next I mean you can work hard and make something of yourself of course that's there but there are also more hurdles at the same time so it feels like you know kind of everyone's right when I had my business it was called pure basics collective it was kind of like Amazon or Etsy but for super healthy products you know I became a certified health coach and I was reviewing all this stuff you know think of like raw milk and tally on the face all this stuff and so we bring in these people who are small businesses they would all sell it on the site and like one of the things that we had to do you know this site is we're no longer active unfortunately but like one thing just an example like when you're doing your website you have to make it ADA compliant right if you don't have your site ADA compliant then you know shark lawyers will come in and check out people's sites and then you know do cases against you and all this stuff and it's like why do I have to do that why do I have to make my site ADA compliant but I don't even I want to challenge you on that buddy I mean I went into it started an insurance company right after 2008 where compliance regulation was freaking sky right I'm not saying it's not possible no all I'm trying to say to you if I'm playing a role of a

1:36:28uncle or father figure or older brother to you I don't even want my son to talk that way my son he what one week all the kids in a house were sick before the vault he was a starting line up on the team then the next week he's at the vault for one week so he doesn't go to practice next week at a game he gets in the injury the coach pulled him he only played two quarters instead of the four they're doing quarters right now and soccer out it used to be two apps but it's he's playing the 11v 11 well you know what it's not fair I'm not playing no what I would take you out if I was your coach this is hard and and but as hard as it is will you think you would have been famous 20 years ago as famous as you are right now you think the world's gonna know who I am 20 years ago who the hell am I 20 years ago I'm just an insurance guy look who we are right now we got right now in a room just so you know 16,000 people are sitting in the bathroom stall or their car or their work acting like they're working and they're listening to us agreeing disagreeing with us 20 years ago nobody has a clue who I am so what would I do 20 years ago I got to get a WM agent

1:37:29who the hell is getting the WM agent with this guy C.A.A. who what am I doing working a fox I'm working I see I know who signs this guy I got to go to Columbia whatever the university is or go to Brown or one of these bullshit you know what are the big journalists schools out there I gotta go to those schools for me to barely get a job and go kiss everybody's asked to make my way up to get in the job at Fox or CNN or CBS you kidding me the world now knows who will it is we are living in a ridiculous time and if I have to exchange the regulation go back a hundred years ago 100 years AC TV radio this is the greatest time ever but we have challenges yeah that's what I'm I'm agreeing I said that's okay but all I'm saying is the regulation stuff every industry has got regulation stuff they're dealing with trust me it's not it every industry right we got to find a way to rise above it leaders we need to be leaders and we need to rise above it and this message trust me I didn't make any new friends today I'm telling you I didn't make any new friends today

1:38:30people are pissed off at me saying you don't understand what people are going through I feel like our good friends now oh no I Jeff but but my challenge to Jeff is you have a brain that needs to be used to come up with solutions and share that with us every time you come here I look forward to hearing from you because I really respect the brain of yours but I want you to think about bigger solutions I want you to think about if you're in the room and the president's listening to you what would you advise them to do that's the challenge that's all it is nothing more nothing that's why you're here because the world needs people like you yeah and I appreciate that to we're all I say hey you know stop being stop being so negative and yeah every once in a while we got to go through okay let's go to next door let's talk about Vivek is going against Amy acting in in what he called it Ohio can we look at the calcium of Vivek and Amy acting please nobody thought Ohio a an Amy acting was going to get ahead of a Vivek if you go back to February 2025 go to February 2025 all the way back look at this you got 83 and a half to 16 and a half okay

1:39:33then we go to today go to the flip side of today is Amy is now 54 9 against 45 1 if you're somebody that's watching the same man I think Vivek's got a shot you may want to go on calcium creating an account and go that side but the market right now is saying Amy acting is going to be beating Vivek Tom how did this happen Vivek was a superstar everywhere how did this was it just that tweet or is it more than the tweet it it was more than the tweet but the tweet started a waterfall effect Ohio is in the middle of America the middle of America doesn't want to hear that the middle of America has you know perceptive problems that he was talking about and they certainly don't want to hear in the middle of America that a guy that sounds like an eliteist engineer who's already sold this company oh yeah nice to be you they don't want to hear that and so it was how he responded to it and the little comments that he's been making along the way and then they're

1:40:36in the middle of America and they're facing this and they're facing the economy and the Fortability Crisis Pat so those two things came together Vivek did it to himself a little bit God bless you Vivek you know it says I love you but you after that comment you didn't kind of rally with it and then also the wave of affordability crisis came that and those are the two things they were hitting him hard and now you've got this woman coming from you know the the angry white middle-aged crazy town the crazy town Democrat woman and it's she's the the air has been sucked out of the room and she's coming in with it those two things came together it's not any more complicated than that and so they don't see Vivek is understanding them he lost that momentum the economy move affordability move and she moved into the into the gap and that's exactly what we've got going on here he needs to be out there talking about all the things that we could be doing he could be doing hey let's lower the restrictions on housing so we could build houses if we have more

1:41:39house the price of each house will go down a little bit we'll have supply we need it we have it let's let's take what Patrick was talking about taxes let's do that let's drill baby drill and have more oil energy here so that we are not just an exporter of natural gas to Europe we could have more here we could build jobs on this those are three so simple things taxes housing and energy and he could be talking about those in Ohio in the middle of the U.S. but I think he lost the narrative path and he didn't come back and say you know what American exceptionalism is what I believe in I've taken advantage of it I've been part of it yeah but we got to go and I just don't think and by the way I like him you know we we have a very do you think most do no okay so why that's the that's the thing why he didn't come back he seems a little arrogant and a luf I'm sorry to say that but the average person looks at him he seems arrogant and a luf he think that's fixable it is fixable talk about things and have solutions and demonstrate that you've got the ability to do it

1:42:42okay what were you at with this I think he's gonna win or lose no I think he's fixable in months no no I think again this is so you think he's gonna lose the catch I think Republicans are in for really tough November the saddest that is and what that actually means Republicans are in for tough November people would have given him a little bit of slack if things were different yes I think Tom you're right he's a little bit of luf he doesn't connect well with the average American most of average Americans would say okay that's not a big deal but when kitchen table issues are front and center every single day you don't want a luf you want somebody who says I feel you're paying and a luf said it was a luf but then he said something well he did he actually confirmed everybody's worst fears look the greatest states in the country right now are led by Republican governors Ron DeSanta shout out to him and governor Abbott in Texas and the former greatest states in the union Gavin Newsom and Kathy Holtkall have completely ruined so I'm not following the Ohio race I do like Vivek I understand that a lot of people maybe have been turned

1:43:46off I'm a fan and I want to say once the last I think Ohio hasn't had a Democratic governor since pre-John Kasich 15 20 years ago so Ohio's doing pretty damn good Ohio's states doing pretty damn good Columbus Cincinnati even had LeBron out there in Cleveland be careful what you wish for Ohio things are going pretty damn good for you and if you don't go with Vivek you're going to go end up potentially what's happened in California and New York so you're you're saying for the voters a lot of people a lot of people think they're not going to show up then if they're not shown up who's the onus on if the onus is on Vivek why are they not shown up now this by the way just so you know this is just a Calci poll and we we follow Calci because I now with days that's where I go to my I trust these polls more than any other polls I look at when Calci puts this up I want to know why the audience has put 1.7 million dollars on choosing Amy over Vivek why are they doing

1:44:47now why do you think these are odds right so like it's 50 50 at this point give or take it's not it's 55 45 54 46 so but so I mean it's but but Adam but but go go back to this is kind of like a polyvier polyv what was his name the here polyvier polyv he had a 94% chance and he lost to Carnegie now he wrote that completely screwed up he royally screwed up because he did not want to work Vivek is not a guy that's not a worker oh Vivek is here was an arrogant pompous eating apple I don't need to sit down with podcasts scared walking on X-shul's a little bit of a pansy ask that I'm telling and now after he lost he's not going to do podcasts which is good but I'm trying to find out this isn't over with right now will what do you think about Vivek's chance of winning against Amy I think it's tough and you know to kind of say the elephant in the room with this you know the fact that his last name is Rama Swamy and and I don't know if people totally look at him as a Republican candidate you know just can be completely honest with the vice president's

1:45:48wife's name is or Usha of course you know you know but we elected people elected Donald Trump for being Donald Trump not for so you think the name is gonna hurt him I do I do think it hurts I think it makes people less excited about him you know I think right now in America you're seeing all sorts of problems that I guess you could say are race related, but a lot of it comes down to like ethnic, ethnically done. And I think that people, I don't know if people want this. I'm being completely lazy. Just because he's Indian or because of his last name or because of what? Yeah, yeah. I think we just we voted for Barack Hussein Obama. Yeah. What are we talking about? Yeah. So I that was Democrats, you know, the Democrats voted for it. Well, also there's a lot of people in the middle of the vote for Republicans may not. Yeah, I'm saying Republican. Yeah, I think it's also a side. What could he do? What could he do? Will to change it? Like remember when the first time Trump was running and hey, I've grabbed him by the, you know what? And so what did he do? He went and got a mic pens for hardcore conservative and safe and Christian and no. He's a good man. He's a good man. And I think Pence played

1:46:51a big role for Trump winning than JD that for Trump. I don't think JD played any role for Trump winning. I think Pence did. What could he do here strategically to be able to regain the vote? Regained the Republican Party? I think he's got to push hard on the America first agenda. I think if he's not going forward with that on American interests as the first thing, you know, I mean, we those all just talk about these H1B visas and bringing people in and all this kind of stuff. And if he doesn't really take a stand against that, you know, I think it's going to be losing I will say now let's go to the next story. Paramounts always known for being, you know, for the most part in California, they set California exit planned over anti-trust battle with blue states 111 billion dollar WBD merger and their leaving. So now speculation where they're going. Some people know some people are speculating, but Paramount is deadly serious about relocating its headquarters out of California. If the state doesn't drop out its effort to block the company's pending Warner Brothers discovery merger sources toward deadline with executives telling LA mayor Karen Bass and attorney general Rob Bonta that billion dollar merger with Paramount CEO David Ellison has called blackmailing

1:47:56response California has floated Georgia, Tennessee and Texas as possible new homes. Bonta's office called the relocation talk. Saber rattling saying what Paramount decides to do in Paramounts choice alone. Counties economic development corporation report estimated a full relocation could cost California 28,000 to 58,000 jobs and 10.6 billion to 21 billion dollars annually in economic output. Tom, how big of an impact would this be and how likely is it that they're leaving. Imagine a left brain and a right brain got together and came up with an incredible banking solution. The innovative minds at Silicon Valley bank and the pragmatic ones at first citizens bank have put their heads together so they can deliver solutions tailored to your unique financial needs. You want deep innovation insights paired with the financial power of a top 20 US bank? Now you can have it. Silicon Valley bank and first citizens bank. It's the best of bank worlds.

1:49:09The Yamabah resort and casino in San Manuel is bringing the biggest laughs to the stage. Break taboos with Ali Wang on August 28th and 29th. Enjoy Ralph Barbosa's dry humor on September 18th and 19th and don't miss Nikki Glacier's unapologetic comedy November 19th. Tickets on sale now at Yamabah theater dot com. Only at Yamabah resort and casino celebrating its 40th anniversary. You in must be 21 to enter. This episode is brought to you by chat GPT. Hey, it's Bill Simmons from the Bill Simmons podcast. Have you guys heard about chat GPT work? It's the new way to use chat GPT for bigger multi-step projects and when you need more than just answers, you have chat GPT work access to

1:50:12your apps and files and it can create real work documents like spreadsheets slides and structured reports. Get started at chat GPT dot com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro program. This will be the impact that they're saying. I buy off on the numbers. The numbers. Yep. I have no reason to doubt those. Number one. Number two, I don't think it's saber rattling. I think if you look at it, you know, back in the old days, why did you need to have steel mills where they were in the rust belt? Why? Because we're trying

1:51:15to because we're moving or across the Great Lakes. That's where that's where the ore was. Or gets off the load and goes into smelters. We made steel. We made iron. We did all this. In a streaming world, you do not have to be in California. In a world where you need the labor that the studios need, you don't have to be in California. It used to be convenient. The fact is this icon, the Paramount Arch that everybody drives from takes pictures and everything like that in LA, you know what? They haven't been making movies at the volume that they're back there for 25 years. They've been in Vancouver. They've been in Georgia. They've been in other places. They've been doing things on sound stages there, but they really haven't been there in terms of the factory of content, nor that they need to necessarily be there. And they're looking at the cost of real estate and the cost of doing business there. I don't think it's saber rattling. I think they're saying, you know what? I can make a lot less money. And one third of the music industry moved to Brentwood, Tennessee.

1:52:16And there's streamers and there's a lot of things in Tennessee and Tennessee is favorable for it. So they're like, you know, I'm moving. You don't have to be there. That used to be that everybody was there. So kind of like the rust belt and the great lakes and the ore coming on ships and barges. It used to be that that was it. It's not no more. You don't have to be there. And it's a cost decision. I don't think it's saber rattling. Will they move? I give it 60% that they're moving. What do you think? 100% they're moving. But I don't think it it I think they're using this as an excuse. I think they were going to move anyway. Because what Tom says, there's it makes no sense. You don't great opportunity. Yeah, you don't need you don't need the scale of Los Angeles anymore like you used to. So it made more sense to move. And they're just saying, let's just let's just beat up the timetable. They're giving us a reason to do it. Where do you? Yeah. Why would you not leave California? Yeah, I lived there. I lived in Los Angeles right over by the Warner Brothers Studios myself over in Toulucal Lake for five years. It's great city by the Toulucal Lake. It's amazing. Amazing. Little farmers markets. You know who you'd have a house in Toulucal Lake? Marilyn Monroe. Really? I know that because every single Hollywood apartment

1:53:20I would move into, they'd always say, Oh, Marilyn Monroe lived right? I see the houses. The house is in Toulucal Lake that she had in a corner area, but you know, relative of ours bought it many years ago. Yeah. And I loved it there. But you know, there's a certain point. It's a breaking point. You have to leave. And it seems very obvious why they think. I think whether you're any of the big major studios, whether you're Sony, Warner Brothers Paramount, the question is, you know, whether they're going to leave or not is, why would you stay? Why are you staying in LA at this point just because like future generations, I'm sorry, past generations love the Hollywood and what Hollywood did for America. Yeah, that's great. We can have sort of like that wonderful feeling about what happened back in the day, but looking at where California is headed, why would you stay and sign up for more of this nonsense? That's my opinion. And by the way, Paramount, the weather in Florida is incredible. Come on here to Florida. South Florida. You're not going to do better. You know, you know, Glenn Beckbot at the place, I think the old Paramount building they had in Dallas. Did you know that? Yeah, yeah. He said he has a massive studio.

1:54:22I don't know if you've ever have you ever been to incredible. Have you been to it's ridiculous to museum. It's ridiculous. How beautiful that place is. So spread your wings, Paramounts, bring your place. But for the nail in the car while you know, you know what needs to be happening. I hope governor Decentra's team is calling and selling and making a pitch on why Florida sell the dream, they sell the dream, baby, to come to Florida. I think we need to be recruiting. Guys come down here. All right. I'll sign up for that recruiting. All right. Next one, Joe Rogan thinks AI running the government would stop all wars on the planet. Okay, all wars on the planet. I don't know if you have a clip in a back where not, but I'll read this if you have it. Pull it up. Uh, Joe Rogan said he hopes AI eventually replaces humans in running government and international relations telling physicists Carlo Revelli as AI becomes more and more omnipresent. One of the things that we're going to farm off is government. Imagine a war, imagine a war where it stops a world where it stops. Is it sit? Go for it. It sounds like

1:55:23like a very, it's a sort of like crazy hope. But my hope is that as AI becomes more and more omnipresent as we start farming off various tasks to it. One of the things that we're going to farm off is government. One of the things we're going to farm off is how we interact with other countries. I know that's terrifying to people, but just think of the disastrous effects that we've had so far with humans doing it. If all international military conflicts ended instantaneously upon AI governing the use of conflicts and military weapons and imagine that imagine a war where it stops all war stops on the planet. That is one of the things that everybody wants, but no one thinks could ever possibly happen. If you ask the average person in history, what are the odds that in 10

1:56:25years from now, there'd be no war anywhere on earth, everyone's going to say no. You're never going to have that. Isn't that insane? That the idea of people for whatever reason wanting to kill each other is universally accepted as being something that's always. So in other words, humans have a terrible historical record of governing conflict. Do you agree with what Joe is saying here, Jeff? No. I think it's incredibly naive to begin with. It's a hell of a lot more complex than just saying, if we only got people to act rationally, we wouldn't have conflicts. That's just nonsense. It's utopian nonsense is what it is. Why would he say that? Because I think there's in the context of discussion we had earlier that people are tired of it. People are tired of the conflict. That doesn't mean that we can just eliminate it through farming off governmental capabilities to a machine. That doesn't necessarily follow. I think it's a bad premise. It's a bad argument and it ends up in crazy town. I think it also has to do with the fact on that question that

1:57:26Trump is not warning about any AI safety. Trump is basically coming out and saying, we don't need to worry about this. It's all going to be fine. And depending on people will do it. And I think that's a big misstep. Tell me why. Why do you think? So your 30 years, you just turned 30 last week. Why are you are you concerned? Are you optimistic? What role do you think AI is going to play? Oh, I'm incredibly concerned. I'm actually writing my third book right now. It's called This Book Is Not Written by AI. And I should come out and tie it. Yeah, I should come out next fall. I am entirely against, yeah, you won't find it on here. It's, it's, you know, still working on it. But incredibly concerned for all a multitude of reasons. You know, we can talk about human extinction and all that coming. And of course, that's scary and and do it kill us all and all that. But the main point is that it's taking away people's humanity and it takes away people's ability to think for themselves. You know, like I'll be, I go and do these debates on college campuses, right? And I'm there. I don't have any notes. I have to basically read everything before. Be like a human encyclopedia so that anyone who comes up and asks me about a multitude of millions of different things. I have to know the answer. And I'll be there talking to people, having a conversation

1:58:30and they're on their phone on AI, talking to me while fact checking it at the same time. That's not real knowledge. That's just me debating an AI. Why do you even come up to the microphone if you're just going to search this? And people do this for everything. And they're not actually learning anything. And if you go to any of these big companies right now, they're going and writing all their press releases with AI. They're doing all their marketing with AI. It's like at, what's certain point? It's like, why am I paying you $200,000 to run marketing for our company when I could have some intern that I pay $15 an hour that just puts in the exact same prompt as you? You're basically useless. People have amazing minds, amazing brains, and we're losing it to social media and AI. And it's only going to get worse is the AI love epidemic comes, the transhumanism comes, I mean, so many different problems that are coming. Tom, what do you think about what Rogan is saying here? Do you agree with them? I think Rogan was speculating. And he was saying, wow, you know, all these things that were what do you use for farming? We're just farming them out to this and this and this. And I think what he was getting at is if we farmed out to AI, you know, working with other countries, if as I was reading this, one of the things you're going to farm about how we

1:59:33interact with other countries, you know, that's terrifying people, but just think of the disaster effect that we've had so far with humans doing it. So I think what he's saying is when humans and egos get together, countries fight. If AI was doing it, then it would be told, don't fight, just find a solution. I think that's what Rogan was saying. So he's a little polyannic because you do go to the part, okay, well, then what are humans really doing? What relationships do we really have? And I don't buy off on that. I think this is a time for humans. This is a time for statesmen. This is a time for connection. This is a time for somebody standing up and leading, not programming AI how to lead. And by the way, whose fingers are on the keyboard? You're going to come back to somebody. Whose fingers are on the keyboard, giving it the parameters. Oh, by the way, this is Iran. So be aggressive and be in charge and don't give them an inch. Okay, well, we just eliminated the conflict, but now it's programmed in. So I think Rogan was just speculating and I discount it because leadership means human interaction representing humans. And I just

2:00:35don't buy off on all the wars would stop if AI was doing it rather than your president, your secretary state. I've actually been watching the sort of the evolution of Rogan. I've been listening to a lot of his old stand up lately. As anybody listen to Pandora, everybody still listens to Spotify and Apple. I slept Pandora and you can put together a comedy channel and Joe Rogan's monkeys and space stuff that he used to talk about. And what I've noticed about Joe Rogan is this, is that he's like the original just asking questions guy. Hey, look, I'm just speculating. I'm just asking questions. He was the things that he said recently about Jesus and religion are actually incredible given like things he said 10, 20 years ago when he was sort of anti-religion. So I've seen him evolve politically. I've seen him evolve on one of the things. So I don't, when I look at Joe Rogan, I don't look to him as a substantial debate. I look at him and say, hey, hmm, wouldn't this be interesting to talk about who I would basically listen to are the basic

2:01:39of the AI companies, not the politicians here. So and regarding AI, you know, again, I'm not the brainiac here, but I do try to research. Are you from me? We're something called the Luddites. You've heard about these people. That's what people call me. Are you really? Well, I'm not, but that's what I said. You're a Russian Luddite. The Luddites were during the industrial revolution. I believe it was going on in the UK and in old British times. They were basically English workers who worked in in factories, who basically rebelled against the revolution, rebelled against the machines. Like just a famous group rage against the machine. So the Luddites and the 18, 10s, 18, 20s, whatever, there were someone who disliked and basically distrust technology. So the technology that they were using for their for their for their their jobs, they would start smashing and ruining the technology. And, you know, lo and behold, they were wrong. The industrial revolution basically went on. It changed the world and the world's better for it. So I'm just wondering if the the AI

2:02:40tumors and people, the will, it's the world, evidently, are basically the Luddites of today. And you can't stop progress. And these things are going to happen to tie this in with Joe Rogan. I think he's just basically posing a question. But for me, I think there's a lot of doomsdayers out there basically saying that AI is going to take over the world. Rogan saying that it's going to save the world. Yeah. So to me, the way I think about it is, I had, I don't know what, oh, I had who was that guy that said his name is preff professor and it wasn't a professor. It was a teacher but he was saying that Trump's going to win. He's going to go to war three round. He's going to lose jang or okay, the Asian guy. So he said something when I was talking to my my the part I really enjoyed about the conversation with him is how much he can criticize China while living in China. And he says, yeah, those are issues we just don't talk about. He lives in China. Yeah, at the time when I talked to him, he was doing the podcast from China. He says, no, we can't criticize you. We just don't talk to and don't talk about those topics because you know, we just we there's a mutual understanding with the people to criticize the China government. Okay. Peace doesn't always mean

2:03:42freedom. So if AI eliminates a hundred percent of war, what does world look like for humans? Let's go there and brave new world. There is no war. Yeah, exactly. You have this dystopia. Yeah, what does that look like? What decisions can we make? If it's how we would be, we're getting arrested. So I'm going to the and then the other part when Lenin, you know, Stalin, all those guys, they took Karl Marx communist manifesto and they brought it to Russia and USSR and it was a hundred percent. Nobody makes money. But government's going to take care of you. Everybody drove the same car, same apartment, same underwear, same clothes, same this same that and this is how it is. What did Russians all start doing? They all broke the law. And what did they do on the side? They all had side businesses and they found ways to make money. So that was a hundred percent communism and when they come to you, you ask a lot of time when you talk to Russians, they'll say, Pat, I don't know how to say this to you, man, my parents, we grew up breaking the law to make additional money and that was a norm. It's not like you nobody was seen

2:04:43as a criminal because we all did it. Everybody broke the law on USSR to make money to take care of their families. So they come to the state, guess what happens to them? They think that's still the norm. So he was trying to explain to me, this is, we've lived like this for 40 or 30 years, this is all we know that you have to find a way to break the law to make money. And then it takes a generation sometime for that to get out of the system and say, not in America, you don't need to do that. Go make as much money as you want just illegally here, right? So I don't know if world peace is ever going to exist as long as mankind is making the decisions and I don't even know if I like it. The only way world peace comes through AI I think is because people will be so docile and destroyed mentally that they no longer they just sit in chairs, sex, what a horrible life. I love the debates. I love him. You know, I love progress. Progress, progress breeds conflict. That's right. We continue to grow. We continue to have no ideas. Obviously there are going to people who have, you know, you talk about the Luddites. It's a perfect example. Irony with the Luddites is they were, look at the wise man. I know the smart guy

2:05:46over there. The Luddites were actually correct about one thing. They were afraid that the machines were going to take their jobs. Machines did take their job. Yeah, but they were wrong about exactly. That's what they were wrong about. So progress comes with conflict to try to reverse engineer conflict out of the equation means almost necessarily there is no progress. Well, I'll tell you a story. I was at a bar a little while ago in Sarasota and there was this guy. There he's probably 20, 21 years old and I'm not trying to be a snoop, but I'm like looking over at what he's doing and he's snapchatting, you know, still using snapchat in 20, 20 seconds. And he's talking to this girl, send selfies and the girl sends something back to him. He takes her message. He goes to chat GPT types it in. As what should I respond to this girl and the thing? How are you supposed to actually talk with a girl in person or whatever you're trying to do? This is the way you're living. The bigger thing is if he's in a bedroom with her and he's like, what do I do next? That's a bigger problem. That's where we're going. Hopefully he has a bit of problem. But when you're going through this, obviously there's going to be a lot of conversations

2:06:48like this. I made a video like 10 years ago saying by 2052, the president's going to be a robot. And they're going to be campaigning to say vote for this robot because this robot knows how to make the decisions to minimize war conflict. This video was like 10, 12 years ago. We made it in 2016 when we were in the Providence Towers. That's how their public, somebody could find it. But let me get to next story. Last story I want to get to before we wrap up is Saudi accuses Houthis of attacking Mecca. And Houthis like, no, we didn't do that. That's not what we did. There's no you did. So Saudi Sikhs allies, Sikh allies help as missile defenses run low in fight with Houthis. Do you have the video, by the way? Is this the video go forward? Slowly.

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2:10:20So Saudi seek ally help. Saudi Arabia is running law and missile interceptors has turned to regional western allies for help. Two regional officials say the Saudis ask France, Britain, Pakistan, Egypt to deploy air defense support against the Houthis missiles. The United States and the Kingdom. The Kingdom's main arms supplier has seen its own interceptor stock to window over the past six months. War of Iran, Saudi Arabia accused the Houthis of trying to strike Mecca with a drone declaring the city a red line. The Houthis denoted a crucial Saudi pipeline has been shot for weeks. The Houthis have seized islands in the Bapel Mendev straight and oil remains above $100. The Bera one official said the Kingdom is in a very difficult position having to protect bases government installation and oil facilities. Adam Beren, a fellow at the Washington think tank, New America said that this is not just the Houthis versus Saudi issue, but a question of guaranteeing international shipping routes. And then US opts out. Ops not to back Saudi Arabia and the Yemen meeting Houthis leaders.

2:11:23How do you feel about the story, Jeff? I don't think we have nearly enough information. I mean, who is who is who's what's actually true here? Is this a false flag operation to expand the wider war for Saudi Arabian purposes? Is this a legitimate threat? Obviously it's a little legitimate threat in terms of the theater, but is this a US is this Saudi Arabia versus Yemeni rebels conflict? Or is this actually part of the wider Iran conflict? I think the US by not backing Saudi Arabia says. It kind of says that this was a false flag thing that Saudi Arabia wanted to expand the wider conflict. And the US does not consider it part of the their goals and their in their conflict with Iran. But not really a whole lot of information here Tom. Yeah, number one is not a lot of information, but number two, these two guys go way back in 2022. After about a year of border clashes, very real border clashes, Saudi and Yemen had a truce and included the Houthis. 2022, they had a truce. No one knew it was going on.

2:12:23It was out in the back corner and the Western media didn't cover it a whole lot. Some, not, not, not. In the meantime, the Saudis made a defense pact just recently with Turkey and Pakistan. And now they reached out to Turkey and they say, hey dude, help me with this thing in my backyard here. They're breaking the truce and they're doing things and oh my gosh, they launched something at mecca. And the turkeys, the turk said hang on man, we really haven't gotten our pact validated by our parliament. And we want to chill just for a second if that would be all right. Can we do that? And he's well, they're doing this. And so the Turks, which is the largest military in the Middle East is Turkey. You know, clearly said we don't want to be drawn into this, this clash down there because Saudi wanted other people to clean it up. And then who did Saudi ask? They ask us. And we said, you know, we bombed the Houthis down there. We hit a bunch of their camps and stuff for about eight days apparently about a year ago.

2:13:24Yeah, we're not into kind of starting it up down here. So what's interesting to me is that the Saudis are saying, oh my god, they've thrown something at mecca. And they have this clash that's been going on, you know, in 2021, 22 pat. And now even Turkey said, no, I really don't want to get drawn into this down there right at the moment. And then we said we want to get drawn in. So what everybody is saying is like, Saudi, come on, the Houthis are your guys. And they are Syed, Syed Shia, I believe, is their sect of Islam. And that sect happens to revere mecca as well. So it's like, I think what everybody's seeing down there with Saudi for all the reasons articulated pat is I think you get to work this Yemen thing out. You got your own treaty down there. And no one is sure of what's going on. So neither the Turks or the US wants to jump in and start, start blowing shit up. Adam. This Muslim on Muslim crime got to stop guys. You know, the Houthis and the Saudis and the Iranians and the Qataris.

2:14:27I mean, come on guys, let's figure out who you're real enemy is here. Obviously, I'm joking here, but the lost in all this. Did you hear about this secret meeting that took place in Germany apparently a week ago between the sent comm United States. Aligned this meeting between Israel, Egypt, Saudi, the Emirates, Jordanians. I think the Bahrain and one or two other Middle Eastern countries to basically get them in a room and say, guys, what the are we doing with Iran at this point? And the fact that Saudi, Egypt, the Qataris, the Emirates are sitting down with the Americans in the Israelis, signifies one major thing. Iran is the bad guy and everybody knows it. At some point, you know, Israel who's not even being mentioned these days because, you know, no Jews, no news. They're basically saying, hey, Israel, would you mind lending us a hand here and helping us figure out what to do?

2:15:28Because quite frankly, we're incapable of beating a rag-tag terrorist group called the Houthis. And we're also incapable of beating the IRGC. So please help us, would you? Because clearly, Saudi and respect to MBS, I think you're doing great things in Saudi. You're using all American weapons. You have all our capabilities. We've given you planes. We've given you bombs. You can't beat the Houthis. What are you guys doing over there? Is that the way it happened that everybody gets together in America says, what do we do about this? And then the Emirates. What do you think is in charge of that meeting? The Emirates say, who's the weak, the Tariq boy? So the... What are you saying, Tom? Yeah, what are you saying? Well, I'm saying, you get everybody together and it says, what do we do about this? Who's we? You know, you started this. It's escalated over to us. We've engaged. We agree that Iran is a bad actor. But who's we? What's your point? He's making a very good point. He's saying, we didn't start this. You start...

2:16:28No, no, no, no. The Houthis thing to correct everybody has been going on for 20 years in Yemen. No, that's not the thing that you said. But you mixed it. You're talking about the meeting. You're talking two different things. Okay, but that's also a part of it. I'm not isolating anything. That whole region is gay. I just said Tom is. No, I know. But you started it. And I'm reacting to your first point that you correctly made about the secret meeting in Germany getting together to talk about Iran. But it wasn't just about Iran. It was also about the Houthis. It's about a mess with the shipping straits. And what's going on here? It's all interweaved into one thing. I think that's the meeting said is not. The Houthis is a Saudi problem. We don't consider it part of the wider conflict. I think that's the consensus here. Well, Saudi... Saudi problem. The Saudis obviously don't. The Saudis are asking everybody to come to their defense. Right? No, the Saudis would get the weaponry from America. So it's downstream of our problem anyway. So I think everybody keeps saying no, which should tell you that their view of this conflict is not part of the wider conflict. Well, we'll see what happens here. But when the Houthis take over shipping straits and the Red Sea or in this other area,

2:17:29everyone's going to get involved anyway. So I think that was part of the conversation. Yeah, I'm actually on Adam's side for this one. I think you're right on that. I think it will probably escalate into something else. And it seems... Yeah. I mean, again, not enough information. And then we'll see what happens. But again, like when I went around escalating things there, it said it wasn't going to happen. It was going to be over. I could see something like that happening here in the same. Awesome. You know what today is for me? Today is Friday. And a few months ago, when we pay, when we have our pay cycle that we pay people, I made omelette a few months ago for everybody. You know what I'm doing today? I'm making chicken barbecue. Oh, yeah. I'm coming for lunch today. My recipe that I've been doing this for the last 26 years. I got to go cook for everybody. But Will, thanks for coming out. It was great having you on. Of course. I really enjoyed it. And your analysis on NFL season spot on. The next time we have to talk about... We got to talk about Disco. We want this Super Bowl. Yeah, Disco. Disco. And Jeff, as usual, I can't wait for our next one. And you know what I want to hear the next one? I'm going to have a 20...

2:18:3020,000 word report. Jeff, you know what I mean? You're like... You're like an economic rock star. You got that hair. You have the glasses. You have both things. Everybody else. You have both things. Everybody else. Have a wonderful weekend. God bless. We'll do it again on Monday. Take care, everybody. Bye-bye. Thank you. Hey, I'm running out to drop off a stack of letters and packages. Need anything shipped while I'm gone? Save the gas. Stamps.com lets you print, postage, and schedule pickups right from your desk. Sync your contacts into the address book. Get detailed accounting insights. And get notified the moment your certified mail is delivered. All from my desk. All from your desk. Join the four million businesses using Stamps.com right now with Code Podcast and get your free welcome gift. Stamps.com Code Podcast. Taxes and fees apply. I'm not giving up. I am selling the building. The final season of FX is the bear. The restaurant is flooded. Everything's either going to be okay?

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