Guardians need more than pitching to save their season against White Sox

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1:00Music Welcome back to the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast. I'm Joe Nogga, joined by Paul Hoynes. Here in the press box at Progressive Field, Hoynesy, the Guardians are headed to Chicago and their season could be over the next time. We record one of these. They lose the game two, four to three. They're down two nothing in the American League Division series. And I keep coming back to this thought. If you can't win the game that Gavin Williams pitched on Monday, then what exactly are you waiting on? What are you waiting for to be able to win? 11 strikeouts, 22 swings and misses, a franchise postseason record in the pitch tracking era. 16 pitches he threw at 100 miles an hour or harder. He gave you five innings of dominant ball. He left in the six-threading with a one-run lead. You asked your ace to save your season.

2:05And basically he did his job. The Guardians just didn't do theirs. Yeah, Joe. They just, they didn't score again. Well, they score four runs, but they blow at two nothing lead. Our three runs, I'm sorry. And they had an early lead to nothing. Gavin carried it through the fifth. Would you like to see them gone a little more? Maybe. But he was at 98 pitches and they were all, you know, seem like high-stress pitches under the situation. And Volt said if he had extended him, he probably, you know, he would have been up to 115, 120 pitches. If depending how deep he got into the sixth inning, and they want to, you know, they're thinking optimistically they're thinking that maybe he could be ready for game four or five if they extend his series. Yeah. And, you know, afterwards, Gavin Williams was, he almost dismissed the strike out total and, you know, the velocity uptick.

3:08And he said, I don't think I was too worried about the strikeouts just trying to put the team in a good position to win. And he did exactly that. And they still lost. They got two runs early, but those were on a throwing error. It's not like they produced those runs. Guards ball chaos produced those runs more than anything. It just feels like what more can a pitcher do, what more can a guy do when, you know, the other guys in the lineup don't pull their end. Yeah. And, you know, three hits on in game one, four hits in game two. You're not, how many postseason games have you got to win like that? And now, you know, they're really behind the eight ball. 89% of the teams that have taken a two-o lead in a best of five postseason series have gone on to win. The last team that didn't drumroll pleased the 2017 Cleveland Indians who blew a two-nothing lead to the Yankees.

4:10So, you know, Dejavu is all over again. I get from from the opposite end this time. Yeah, when you think about that, you know, that series back in 2017, they were primed to advance and possibly make it all the way to the world series that year. They had the best record in baseball. And if Aaron Judge were six foot one instead of six foot seven, Francisco Linnorys home run would have gone over the fence. And maybe things would be different here. You bring up the point about vote pulling Williams and making that move. Let's get into the sixth inning here because this is where everybody is going to start second guessing Stephen vote. Williams started the ending in 91 pitches. Miguel Vargas singles after, you know, after he gets ahead of Vargas gets ahead in the count three nothing Williams fights back and, you know, three two pitch that Vargas singles off of my first reaction when when vote went out to get. Williams in favor of Eric Sbrowski was I understand the move. I'm just not 100% sure that taking the baseball away from the best player on the diamond at that moment was the best move.

5:20Yeah. And, you know, you can't be thinking about tomorrow when today is on the line. You know, you have to to to to to advance to tomorrow. You've got to win today. And, you know, so, you know, I think, you know, I can see why vote is caught in a tight spot. And, you know, with a Gavin work so hard, it seems like, you know, when he he's thrown so hard and and there's no stress free pitches. It doesn't seem like, especially in a game like this, the White Sacks know how to make a more Vargas drew two walks in his first two played appearances, then works in for the single. And you're sitting there, then you've got Murakami, you've got your Murakami, then you've got, you know, Tristan Peters, who is always a pest with which Williams. So I can see his thinking there. But, you know, you're here. You're you're, you know, you're trying to keep you're closing the bar door when the horse is already out. Yeah.

6:22Let's let's be, you know, completely honest. The worries about the long layoff and having all of what nine days off between starts and he actually did touch the mountain through 70 pitches during the the by week. So he was ready to go. But you could tell from the from the beginning, you know, he had a little extra oomph. He had some juice. He talked about in the post game. You know, maybe the juices were out there. He was he threw what how many how many pitches 16 16 pitches over a hundred miles an hour. The he threw the 37 fastest pitches in that game, regardless of, you know, white socks or guardian. So the velocity was there. He had he had rest. He was going well. I get all of that. If you're not going to use him then to yeah, after all that rest, when are you going to extend him? He's he's probably your best reliever in that situation and get himself up. And it's a tough part of the lineup and that part of the lineup gave him trouble. You know, and that's how they scored the first run in the Ford.

7:30You know, Murakami single homerunny walk Vargas and Kiel singled before that. So, you know, that part of the lineup was given him some problems. So Browski walked Randall Gritchock wild pitch, brain Montgomery shoots the, you know, brain Montgomery a switchheader who doesn't hit well from the right side. You know, can pick a good time to hit a two run double down the right field line. Suddenly it's four to two. So Browski, you know, owned it afterwards. He said, just a lack of control. Just didn't have it today. And I get that. You know, there's sitting there. He was sitting there waiting for us in the in the post game. He wanted to talk. You know, he felt like getting it off his chest. And you could tell that he felt bad about not being able to see it through for Gavin. But it's a big ask when you're asking a bullpen and a starting picture. The margins are so thin. A one run margin there. It's because your offense is coming up short.

8:32Not because, you know, the bullpen or Gavin Williams did anything wrong. Yeah. And the strange thing is that they had, you know, they really started turning that offense around after the all star break, especially in September. They, you know, they really played well. What did 33 home runs in September? You know, they're batting average. I think was after the break was 250. But it just didn't translate into this post season. And, you know, they face a really red hot Chicago team. They're four and oh now in the post season sweeping Houston and their under verge of sweeping Cleveland, Joe. And the same thing is happening to Cleveland that happened to him last year. Yeah, it's it's on can a since the game three of the 2024 ALCS Cleveland is one in six in their last seven games all of them at home. And they're still winless. That's the thing. They're doing this at home. They're breaking these fans hearts.

9:37I want to make it clear. I want to push back on the idea that the sixth inning, you know, was the story of the game because it's not the story of the game was the offense just being miserable again for the second straight game. If the Guardians hit and continue to hit throughout a game, nobody's spending, you know, Tuesday debating whether or not Gavin Williams should have faced one more batter in that in that game. Yeah. And, you know, they it's just, you know, they scored, they take a two nothing lead in the first inning. But, you know, like we said, it's, you know, they they used there was an air a throwing air. And they just, you know, it just didn't put the offense together when it counted. And finally when they get something going in the in the lead part of the game, you know, Joe Dell hits the triple off the wall. He thought it was out vote didn't think it was out. Maybe on a warmer night. It's out. But he hit it to the deepest part of the park. And once again, it happens with two outs. Joe, they, you know, so they do get a run. They make it a, you know, one run game. And then Chicago's

10:48Grant Taylor comes in and this guy, what does he, he could he's not going to be able to calm his hair to him. He had a nine ERA against the Guardians during the regular season. Does it look like that through through two games here in the post season? It just doesn't seem like the same picture. And they were, they were swinging at the first pitch against them after a Dell hit the triple. I mean, you would have liked to see a little patience there. But they were driving the ball. But it was, it was getting caught. They weren't driving it far enough. Yeah, you know, they've scored three runs in the series. Seven hits in 18 innings. They're over eight with runners in scoring position. You know, we go back to that first inning. Chicago basically gave them both of those runs. Sean knew come through the ball away on a Nathaniel Low chopper up the middle. And then Burke comes in and Sean Burke has had their number all season. He retired 13 straight batters at one point. Yeah, he retired 16 of the 18 hitters. He faced the last 13 straight before the lot of singled off him. I mean, this guy was two and all with the 1.04 ERA against Cleveland during the regular season three to he faced some three times two starts.

11:58I mean, when did he turn into side? Yo, Joe. Yeah, it's it's uncanny. It just the season that he's had against Cleveland and the postseason is carrying it on. Stephen Kwan said Sean Burke's fastball had more ride than usual. He said he was landing his off speed stuff. And more importantly, he kept getting ahead strike one strike two. At some point, you have to stop talking about what they're doing in terms of their pitching plan and, you know, their performances and all that. And the guard, the guard is just have to go out and hit. They've now lost 19 other last 21 postseason games when scoring three runs or fewer. That's not bad luck. That's, you know, getting into the playoffs, getting into the postseason and your offense just going away. Yeah. And, you know, I don't know, you know, we've talked about this before, but, you know, I think a lot of it is payroll payroll induced. I think it's, you know, talent and the money you spend on talent shows up mostly in the postseason. I'm not showing I'm not saying the white socks, you know, they have a they have a larger payroll in Cleveland, but, you know, it's not like their load of super stars.

13:10But, you know, I just think, you know, you get what you pay for sometimes. And when you have a scrappy kind of offense at the guardians have sometimes that plays better over 162 games than over a best of five. Yeah. And, you know, Cleveland's entire team, their entire roster is built around their pitching and it has been for a while. They get their pitching on the cheap by drafting well and developing well and not bring in free agents that way or over spending on pitching that way. You can't ask your pitching staff to be perfect every October. It's not going to happen. You're going to have bad outings. You're going to have outings where you give up two, three runs and two, three runs shouldn't kill you the way that it has consistently over the last three years for the guardians. So, and the move that they made the moves that they made this year would bring in Joe Adele. Joe Adele up until the eighth inning had what five strikeouts in.

14:14Yeah. In his in his first game and a half and in the postseason. Then he finally hits one. Cleveland had been waiting for that big moment. And, and hoing. I don't know about you, you know, vote said he didn't think it was out. Adele said he did think it was out. It was the first pitch where yeah, I was first pitch swinging when Taylor came in and I thought, oh, here we go. This is that. This is that game time moment. And if he had hit it five feet to the left, we're maybe talking about different outcome. Yeah, just, you know, they just have not scored enough runs to win. I mean, it's as simple as that. And, you know, I mean, and she kind of goes pitch well, but they've also, you know, they've also been fortunate. How many times do you see a, you know, a picture issue an intentional walk in the first inning and it comes and always comes back to back, you know, kind of bite you and it didn't this time. You know, the white socks were able to extend, you know, to extend to a stop that ending stop Cleveland from extending it.

15:21And the guy they they walked was Adele. Yeah, because Newcombe didn't want they didn't want a lefty face in Adele. So, you know, it's just. He threw two pitches and then yeah, once once it was two O, they intentionally walked him after that. But yeah, you take the bad out of Adele's hand. I did turn to pretty much every one in the press box after they got, you know, Quann and Ramirez to second and second and third with nobody out. And I turned around and I said, well, this has the makings of a one running and you know, they to their credit, they scored the exit the second run. But it was nothing after that. And that's that's sort of been the story. When we can predict it and see it coming from the press box because we've seen it so many times this season. They have to see it down in the dark. Yeah. And for once, you know, the white socks strategy of using openers wasn't that, you know, effect. No, it wasn't. But then Burke comes in and shoves for five and a third innings and they can't touch the guy.

16:25Yeah, the two degree early on they they stuck to the script that they wanted to. But then they ran out of pages in the script. They just they just didn't hit. All right. So that brings us to looking ahead to game three. And and if you're Stephen vote, you've got options who pitches in game three. Yeah, you can, you know, you've got foster Griffin. You've got Tanner Bible. You have the combination of Joey Cantillo and Daniel Spino. If you want to go that way. So, you know, you're you're kind of pitching. Why'd you sit? No, okay. Yeah, there's there's plenty of fresh arms. And you don't have to keep running those same guys out there. Bobby is probably the the way you're leaning right now. Just but Tanner Bible might be on a very, very short leash. Depending on how things go early against Chicago on Wednesday. Yeah. So, you know, whether it's all it's been all hands on deck for the first time.

17:28It's not going to change now facing elimination. I mean, Joe, they've got to win three straight games. I mean, that's like, you know, that's for the guardian. That's a real winning streak. I mean, they haven't done that that much this year. So, you know, that's asking a lot. And, you know, you just it's just so rarely, rarely. Yeah. Bobby's had a postseason experience starting before he's been good in the postseason. He's been bad in the postseason. He's the guy who started opening day for you. So, there's there's some reason to give him the ball there. Griffin is a guy who you brought in for, you know, ostensibly for this to to to lengthen your rotation and give you these kinds of options. So, maybe he comes in at some point as a as a bulk relief guy as well. But this this Joey Cantillo Daniel Espino combination is intriguing because of the success that it saw in September down the stretch when they really needed it.

18:31Daniel Espino throw a couple innings early and Joey Cantillo was writing a 15 innings for us. Yeah. And just Cantillo really seemed to find his groove. He stopped walking people. He started throwing strikes. Had a lot more confidence. But he hasn't worked for a while, Joe. Either, you know, Espino is pitch more than he did. He pitch got an inning in game one. So, you know, do you do run a rookie out there in an elimination game to even pitch one or two innings? I don't know. Or do you just give the ball to Cantillo? The worry is that if you start Espino expecting one or two innings out of him and disaster strikes and he blows up and allows three runs and you're playing catch up the rest of the game. That's something you could have prevented maybe with a Tanner Bible start. Yeah. And that you're always going to get second guest on that. So, if you want to sort of if you're Stephen vote and you want to limit people second guessing the decision, maybe Tanner Bible is the option you go with.

19:40But in terms of the what's given you the most success in in recency bias here, it's it's Cantillo and and Espino that combination. There was an idea floated out there in post game where you know we talked to Gavin Williams and we said, hey, you know, are you eager to maybe try to win two games out in Chicago and force a game five where Williams would be the option to go to and if that's the if they're able to do. Yeah, and Gavin said, you know, heck I go and pitch out of the bullpenning game three if they let me and we and there's precedent for it because oh yeah didn't it land and just do that with Chris sale. Yeah, he closed out the wild card series after pitching in game two. So it's not completely out of the realm of possibilities. You certainly don't want to open him up to any sort of injuries. He threw 98 pitches on in game two, but if there's a moment where you need three outs, strike out something, do you get Gavin Williams heated up in game three.

20:45I don't know I can tell your answer already. I'm not doing that, but Joe I'm wondering, you know, in a six inning we and we talked about this in a previous podcast. What about Kate Smith in the six inning? Yeah, you needed a strike out. You needed a situation there. You brought in Sibraski because here's the thing Eric Sibraski throws fastballs. Yeah, and they hit fastballs, but they don't hit they don't hit Kate Smith's fastball. So maybe Kate Smith would have been an option there, but that leaves you yeah, in the ninth inning. What are you going to do there? So Gavin Williams pitching in game three, maybe not a great idea. But if Gavin Williams could swing a bat, that's what they really need. You know, they need somebody to swing the bat. What does this do with with a message? I got to believe, Messick is your game four starter. If he gives that's that's you've got to get there, but Messick is the guy you get the ball to in game four.

21:50So what has to change on Wednesday in order to to sit here and be talking about the starting game on Thursday? What does Cleveland need to do to force a game four? It's simple, Joe. They've got a score and they've got to keep scoring. You know, they're so much they're a much better club when they can extend the offense and not just have these little cells, you know, like a two run inning and then do nothing for the for the next six innings. You know, any team is better that way, but we've seen these guys, you know, get on a roll, move the chains, you know, kind of, you know, score in multiple innings and and there's so much better than that because they are a talented team and it gets more along their lines of their game to force the, you know, put pressure on the opposition, score some runs, get a clutch hit and, you know, the clutch hits have been, you know, missing. They haven't I don't think they've got a hit with a runner in scoring position. Over eight this, this, this series, I'm going to be more specific. Jose Ramirez needs to do something. Anything.

22:57There's no confidence when Jose steps to the plate right now, not in the press box, not in in the stands. There's no fear in the opposition. You're in the opposition. You're exactly right. So you can talk about depth and matchups and bullpen strategy. You want, but your best player has to be your best player on the field in the postseason and so far, Jose Ramirez has has not been and we all understand why and we all give him credit for, you know, being out there and then the guts that it takes to be out there. But, but something has to give at some point. So all right. The final thing, I think, you know, a final maybe point would be that how, how Stephen vote manages game three. He has to manage it like there's no game for because if you don't win, you're not going anywhere, you're going home and that's maybe the biggest takeaway from this. Yeah, I mean, it's an elimination game. It's your you're on the edge of the precipice, Joe. You're staring into the abyss.

24:05And if you make a wrong move, your season's over. And it just, you know, it seemed like when the guardians won this division and earned the buy. I mean, it seemed like the season, you know, this was just it couldn't have gone any better. Now, but now you got to play the games and the games haven't gone the way you wanted them. And this thing is running out of time and it's just it's coming, you know, it could come to a screeching halt here. Can they do this? Can they pull this off? Can they rally for three runs? What's your gut tell you? My gut tells me no. I mean, I, you know, I'm just being realistic. I mean, I, I, I'd be surprised if they win one game. All right. That's going to wrap up today's edition of the Cleveland baseball talk podcast. Work out day in Chicago on Tuesday, game three set for Wednesday night at rate field. We will talk to you ahead of a game three on Wednesday.

25:05We'll check in with you then. Good deal. Nicky Glazer, this stunning tour. The thoughts of death I don't like to dwell on them for longer than like 10 or 15 hours a day. So November 19th, Yamabah Theater. No wonder women rushed to have kids were being trained for it since we were kids. They're like, here's a baby doll. Here's an easy bake oven. I got one of those. I stuck my head in it. I was like, I want out of this narrative tickets on sale now at Yamabah Theater dot com. Don't miss Nicky Glazer. Yamabah Theater.