Instant Reaction: The Fed Decides

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1:03Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else. So, Healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person. How you need it. Optum is helping make Healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, radio, news. This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3000 journalists and analysts around the world. Down at Washington D.C. from the Nations Capitol is my mckay. It is a rate increase. The first of a cycle, a unanimous decision to raise their benchmark rate, a quarter point to three and three quarters to four percent.

2:05Sixteen members of the committee anticipate another increase this year. Only two would hold here. Kevin Warsch, the chairman, does not submit a dot. Eight almost half. See, another increase, another rate increase next year, while six call for no change. Four C-Rate cuts in 2027. One of them calls for rates to fall to three and a quarter percent. Almost as significant, they raise their long run view, essentially the neutral rate to 3.2 percent from 3.1 percent in June. The members see faster growth this year and next, 2.3 and 2.4 percent up a tenth each from their June forecasts. And the economic activity the statement says is expanding at a solid pace. Unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.1 percent this year and hold at that level through 2029. Job gains the statement says have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little.

3:06Inflation though, according to the statement remains elevated. The median outlook is seen higher this year. PCE headline at 3.7 percent up from 3.6 percent in June. Next year, it falls to 2.3 percent, achieving the 2 percent target gets pushed out as usual two years to 2029 now. Core PCE will be 3.4 percent at the end of 2026. Up a tenth, next year it's 2.5 percent unchanged. The statement concludes. Today's policy action will support a timely return to the committee's 2 percent goal. The committee will deliver price stability. My my key thank you sir. You stay close let's go through the price action. Bond advancing into the decision we give only just a little bit of that up. You're to lower by two basis points at a front end. Two's at 4.64 on 10s this afternoon we're down by 5 to 4.95. Earlier in the week of course reaching 5 percent. A number, a level we haven't seen going all the way back to 2007 at least earlier this week.

4:06In the equity market this afternoon on the S&P 500 on the Nasdaq on small caps the Russell. We still advance we're still just about positive though. We're off session highs up by 0.2 percent on the S&P. The question for the chairman in this news conference with this a one off tweak. Is it high for longer or higher for longer? Is it the start of something more than just 25? The word that I think is going to be analyzed and over analyzed will be a timelier. A timelier return to 2 percent inflation. The median forecast in the statement of economic projections granted it did not include Fed share Kevin Warsh. Includes an additional 25 basis point hike this year. And as Mike was saying a longer time higher long term neutral rate. All of this speaks to the idea that this is part of a cycle. This is not a one off and that this is a Fed that has run out of patience. The unanimous decision Bob Michael nailed that was a big tell given how many people got on board including the Fed share himself. I'm absolutely fascinated by the labor call which I know is off the radar right now but they don't look for any change in the labor economy.

5:08It seems to me they're looking at output to be good and not problematic. This is all going to get solved gloriously by inflation coming down and output will be fine. Says who? And that's to me the huge mystery here. They were dutter of Remnak the first to respond in my inbox. Regis follows the Fed is not done. The answer they are underestimating just how much work they need to do. That also explains the gap between the policy rate even now this afternoon where the two year is currently because the two year is maturely higher than the policy rate. Ultimately do they close the gap of 100 basis points? And what direction will that gap be if the Fed is further behind the curve than they realize then is the goal here given that timely a return to 2% inflation is the goal here to get there more quickly and to take out some of the dynamism that we have seen in frankly capital markets as well as just overall growth. With Vice Chairman Clare to coming on his colleague Ned Phelps, the late Ned Phelps, the Columbia that's his favorite word dynamism. I don't hear anything within the comments of Mike McKee where there's any planning for a slowdown

6:13in the American economy right now with half of America basically flat on their back from whatever reason. Don't see much of that in the forecast. Mike McKee is still standing behind before he runs into that news conference. Mike what would you point to in the forecast the projection materials that might set the time for the news conference in 25 minutes time? Well one of the interesting things is they say that this move will result in a time-lier move to the 2% target and yet they push the 2% target out another two years as they almost always do with these summaries of economic projections to 2029. So I'm not sure what timely or means in this case. They also do acknowledge that inflation is higher and I think the move up in the long run neutral rate is important because they've been talking about that as a possibility because of AI and the spending on AI and that could mean that we're in a higher for longer kind of environment a new regime as it were for interest rates and we've seen that in real rates echoing the idea

7:15that the neutral rate is higher. Mike thank you sir looking forward to your question in the news conference a little bit later on this afternoon that news conference at 230 East and Time just about what Mike was talking about the projections for let's say core PCE let's take core PCE that's a 3.4 for 26 compared to the June projections 3.3 for next year 2.5 the June projection was 2.5 for the year after bram I have 2.2 the June projection was 2.1 it is an important question you're saying one thing about a time year return to to target and then you look at the forecast and it's not really there is it? Yeah how much are other people on board with this number one and is it timely as compared to what as compared to how much more you see inflation potentially accelerating considering that it's moving in the wrong direction I also think they still see unemployment declining in terms of the unemployment rate over this period of time so economic growth clearly not part of the equation not a problem to hold them back for additional rate hikes again I'm curious how unified this FOMC committee really is given some of the rhetoric we've heard so bring in the speeches that we're going to be hearing over the next couple of weeks.

8:17I think you know you look at the unanimous decision and maybe that to me is the headline here is they listen to bram I was bad for them they listen to you don't descend yeah yeah they had a trouble don't dissent stay out of that's the right phrase stay out of trouble keep your head down get to the next meeting and then keep your head down for the elections let's talk to a man who's been there done that the former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clired a joint just now for more rich welcome not a surprise to see 25 basis points what would you point to that is the key development this afternoon well I think Mike McKee is usually did a great job you know the time layer languages noteworthy but again the mission accomplished is pushed out two years I think it is important that it wasn't unanimous decision I think it's also relevant that you had 16 people and I would also count 16 of the dots and and I would count Sherman Worshade 17 folks indicating I think another rate hike later this year which had been our call that this would not be one and done and they give a very firm signal they may not need to do more I actually think the 3.4 percent on core

9:22PCE which is what I think I heard Mike say I think is a little lofty I think we could come in below that especially given some of the methodology revisions so but yeah I think important that was unanimous decision and a clear overwhelming majority of folks think they need to move at least once more which is in line with what we think as well Rich what do you think change so much from the July meeting today that caused a unanimous decision by all of the members the voting members to hike rates and potentially engage in a cycle not just one and done well the history is Lisa is that we typically don't see one and and and done and so I think that is that's relevant you think think about it if we're target by more than 100 basis points what is 25 basis points on rates going to do for that so I think there's a credibility uh got three specific unicorn and guy Williams and Waller and others saying look we want to see progress I think Williams put out

10:26their point two per month on core and since then we haven't got point two per month on on a core especially given where I think we're going to end up with the core reading later this month and so I think they wanted to see that progress I think Chris Waller said give disinflation a chance and they hadn't seen it so I think especially after Jackson Hole it was important to to ratify that reaction function Richard Clarity your claimed research on dynamic stochastic general ecanolidium theory the word stochastic is for shocks I didn't hear any statement on shocks coming from Michael McKee and yet they have to live with the shocks of present who's right Waller or Worsh on shocks and the importance of them forward Chris Waller and and chairman Worsh are are understand and are focused on the shocks and in fact I think that was one of the big questions that the chairman is wanting to try to to answer so I don't think the committee is disagreeing I

11:26think it's more how persistence will these shocks be are we going to be talking about higher membership prices a year from now where were where were tariffs and you know oil futures curve has been they have a lot of how about getting on a oil prices and so I think it's not so much shocks or no shock is how persistent are they are going to be how much further will they go and Brahma are they willing to go the final mile are they willing to go through the pain to get inflation back down to target how they messaged from a blue and bow subscribe just moments ago and that's the question they're asking is this fed willing to go through the economic slump that might be required to get inflation back to target because so far right now inflation has been above target based on the fact that equities are up I would say the answer to that right now is perceived to be no that ultimately we will stop short of engineering a full blown recession because of the reluctance to do so

12:28and so that is why you're not seeing four five or even six rate hikes getting penciled in by anybody that said there is a lack of understanding of just how much inflationary pressure and how much growth there is in this economy it is surprised analyst after analyst after economist and at what point do we end up seeing that come through in the fed having to go further than they thought a dance worker of kpm g stand invited jump into the conversation as well damn welcome to the program we've got a hike they're looking for another one there's a market lean and a lean on the committee to go maybe even further than that down what are you expecting beyond just 25 well one of the things that I think is really important is this is beginning of a rate hiking cycle they've signaled to already that's important and they don't want to get ahead of themselves because they're managing to the economic aggregates we've got an economy that's resilient but not resonating with too many and I think that's important as well at the end of the day though their job is to derail inflation and if we get into 2027 and we're still seeing stickiness particularly in the

13:32service sector and the dispersion of prices that's going to be a real issue for the fed and they'll have to go further and then we'll have to see just how much they're willing to derail growth versus higher for longer in hope for a softer landing one thing that I thought was notable dianne is that in the statement they do refer to geopolitical developments in passing they say well uncertainty due to geopolitical developments has has been ongoing domestic spending has been resilient and not almost to the retail sales that we got earlier today how much are they not really going to address the oil price shock because of the strong economic data elsewhere in other words supply side shocks are fair game as long as they come with strength in other places well it really is at the end of the day we had the retail sales today and they were stunningly strong and broad based some of those retail sales reflect actually buying ahead of feared increases in tariffs in the

14:33vehicle sector but they weren't all that and that is of course the very behavior that the fed is tasked to avert so I really think it is a combination of demand and supply shocks they're dealing with now and they're acknowledging that with more than one rate hike in their forecast dianne swank your academics is michigan and michigan has been fabulous in the study of inflation what i hear is a some gas that we can bring down inflation and not bring down real gdp can we have that nirvana or is that just naïve i think it's more naïve than nirvana and i am worried and i tell you all the economists that i'm talking to on the industry level all the industry economists that i talked to they are worried about the cost pressures they see in the pipeline and that it will be much more sustained and what will it take to really derail this inflation so right now this is a step in the right direction but the debate within the economics community is starting to

15:35be not whether or not they have to raise again but how many breaks do we need and how much do we need to suffer between here and price stability get to price to perfectly said john ferro it's as simple as this is that debate happening at the fed or they walk on our eggshells because of 1600 pencil vain avenue well i think they're certainly having that debate and the white has is having no influence over this conversation because they've just high rates by 25 basis points as signaled they're willing to go again danne just want to build on this conversation you have them because i think it's so so important do you believe this labor market is tight enough to put up the wage growth that would support these higher prices do you believe the consumer price tolerance exists to pass on these higher prices do you think we're in that situation now in terms of the labor market right now i'm seeing two labor markets at the same time there's pockets of labor shortages where wages are starting to pick up i was just talking to a bank CEO

16:36yesterday who said all his clients are can't find workers at the entry level these are not new college grads these are entry level positions that once might have been filled by foreign born workers that are not being filled today and that's putting upward pressure on wages there on the higher level we just saw some economic research that showed those professions that are most exposed to a i are seeing a slowdown in their wage gains we're not seeing job losses per say from a i but we are seeing a slowdown in wage gains in those sectors most exposed and so you have this dichotomy that the fed is trying to deal with and the bottom line is again they can only deal with the economic aggregates they can't deal with the inequalities and the unevenness of this expansion which has gotten extremely concentrated in the a i build out as well we're just a got a message from steve chiverone a federated hermys the chief investment officer there and he had this comment that i think is really important i and if for us characterizes this

17:38is a recalibration to hire neutral rate reflecting higher nominal growth he can land the plane do you think that we're going to get that much done or do you think that ultimately we're going to have another exercise in letting the action speak for themselves well i think that we're probably going to have to go through many iterations on markets on this and i think it's going to be hard for the photo reserve this i think that move up in the neutral rate i expected that but it's still too low i actually think this is neutral what we're at right now and that means we're way to accommodative at the moment that's a very different perspective than what they just put out in the summary of economic projections thanks for a simple question will you miss the dots if they do away with the dots but i care if they do away with the dots would you miss the dots i actually you know the dots are they're the dots they give us an inclination that they're in a rate hiking

18:39cycle i think the verbiage in the statement itself basically gave us already that we're in a rate hiking cycle if it's one it's more than one as i agree with rich we actually have two more additional rate hikes and it could be more than that and i think that's the important thing that we should be focusing on is they actually even changed the statement on this one dance one kpmg down thank you appreciate it if you did not have the dots today i think we'd have a slightly different conversation because you wouldn't really know what was implied in the forecast at all there wouldn't be any forecast we wouldn't be having that conversation about what comes next we'd be pretty blind at the moment and i'm not sure the fed share is going to give you much in this news conference either based on recent performances at the presser yet what we have is an imperfect measure of a cycle not necessarily a one and done which is incredibly rare and that is ratifying market expectations you're right without that what would this fed share do given the fact that he doesn't want to really give it to us verbally at a certain point though you start to wonder whether the jury has come back with respect to a reaction function necessarily forward guidance to say that

19:41when you don't tell people they place in an extra premiere to offset the chance of a fed that moves less predictably than some people works i look at the set of things to come into this mystery meeting we're having today and i really didn't expect a fed looking for a nirvana of yeah we can do this inflation's going to come in and there'll be almost a painless growth side is what i see and i don't i did not hear from dianne swank the idea that would be a successful outcome i certainly hope they can we hope to we hope to i think we're all going to buy a set it's a good economy and i hope they can land that plane the evidence of the last five years though Tom is a tremendously difficult to get inflation back to target with normal gtp this hot and with the crude story in the mix too and this is the problem that many people will have with this hike this afternoon this fed reserve can't print molecules it can't print barrels accrued it can't build refineries it can't sign piece accords there is nothing they can do about the situation in the middle east and i know we've been above target for a long time before this war even started but without this war without the shock and energy prices we wouldn't be having this conversation about

20:42high-speed cb i don't think we'd be having this conversation about additional hikes to the fed reserve either i know you want to get them out was that he here but i think this is important dominant constant with a brilliant research note from azure and he part he partitioned waller in warge and said there's not enough discussion about shocks and what they mean for the economy and of course from an institution like this we're not going to get a shock discussion today i get that fair that's fair you know fair game but the idea here of how these shocks play out is far more important than the dialogue i'm hearing today i wanted to give the former fed vice chair of the fed reserve just to find a word on the conversation we're having rich cloud is still standing by rich thanks for your patience sir i know we had a technical problem on our end just moments ago rich in your opinion do you think we can get inflation back to target at this fed reserve without causing demand destruction in this economy i do we saw an example of disinflation without a recession between at 2022 and 2024 and five i think it can happen i think

21:46to be blunt i think the pce price index is overstating underlying inflation in the economy if you look at the labor market if you look at the cpi inflation is above target but it's not as far above target is the pce is showing some of that may get revised away in a couple of weeks so yes it i think it's possible we've seen it before and i think i think it's certainly something that can happen again can the chat entertain that discussion with that damaging its credibility well it'll be interesting to see how chairman warsch navigates today he may get that question i'm eager to hear what he says but yes i think there's an affirmative case that one can make that as i said i think the pce index is overstating underlying inflation i think they have less ground to cover than maybe some of the indicators suggest so i'll be interested to see if he if he makes that argument he chose not to a jackson hole but we'll see if he does make that argument what's this space that news conference begins in ten minutes time the former fed vice chair Richard

22:46clouded their way and again on a decision a 25 basis point hike the forecast imply one more to go for this year and alien as many people have indicated this afternoon in their research notes that there might be more to come in twenty twenty seven it wasn't just core pce if you look at core pc p i which is essentially that classic consumer price index stripped out of energy and food you can see that it was zero percent in june month over month zero point two percent in july and zero point three percent in august in terms of the increase it is broad big that i think is the reason why people are saying they're taking action madly said if Deutsche Bank stand in by mad welcome to the program before this you said this it is not clear the fed is sufficiently restrictive we now expect the fed to deliver seventy five basis points of tightening in total with that twenty five do you believe they validated the other fifty with this this afternoon yeah i think the dot pop was a little bit more hawkish than i was anticipating i think you got strong consensus for at least two rate 16 out of the eighteen dots expect at least two rate hikes this year and actually it's a committee that's pretty closely split on whether or not

23:50you have two or three rate hikes in total for next year i think that there's eight dots that show the fed funds rate seventy five basis points above yesterday's levels through the end of next year so i think it's very much in line with our our view at this point which is that the fed has started a mild tightening cycle and that is a pretty strong base case that the fed is likely to take back the seventy five basis points of reductions that they gave us last year met what do you think they're hoping to accomplish is it just taking the froth out of equity markets is it on the margins just crimping the extra consumer spending power that there was even with consumer discretionary we're seeing in terms of the stock performance not doing very well yeah i i think that the motivations are are similar to monetary policy tightening that that you typically have i i understand that there are supply shocks ongoing but i think it is not just about supply shocks you have a very strong growth backdrop as well as we saw the retail sales this morning the lana fed gdp trackers 5.1% annualized three consumer spending is expected to grow above four percent you have a big cap expo that is taking place wealth effects are meaningful so what the fed should do is to try to

24:54tighten financial conditions in order to likely slow demand growth and help to guide inflation back to target now will they get all the way back to target without significantly reducing demand i guess i have some skepticism about that but can they you know at least get closer can they get something closer to two and a half percent something closer to two percent whereas it looks like we are stuck closer to three percent at this point i think that's the objective i think the other objective is to take the steam out of upside risks uh to uh buy back into fed credibility to ensure that inflation expectations don't pick up uh as well and so it's about risk distribution risk management but also helping your modal forecast get it closer to two percent met how important is the word timelier in this fed statement it's doing a lot of heavy lifting at a time when the uh the s e p does not seem to indicate a sooner return to two percent yeah i think we have to view that as as versus the counterfactual so if they did not have you know 50 or 75 basis points of rate hikes in their forecast for for this s c s e p s e p we would have expected that their inflation

25:55forecast for next year perhaps the thought year after that would have also risen you're right i think timely or timely or is is um you're doing a lot of work um but i think what we see is that inflation is not moving down fast enough for for the fed uh they've lost some patience i think with with that progress that they were seeing or lack of progress and therefore it is very clear that they feel they need to act and there's a pretty strong consensus in acting again with at least another 25 basis point hike this year man when we spiked to vice check clarida and we asked him whether you could get inflation back to target without causing real demand destruction he said yes and he pointed to a period after the pandemic we didn't have time to get into it but i think that period is worth discussing we also had through that time a massive positive supply shock for labor and we're not going to litigate this right now you're certainly not on the right seat to do that but ultimately there was a very very odd approach to immigration in this country at the southern border which allowed a lot of people to come across and weighed on wages in this country man we don't have that anymore in fact we've had a negative supply shock on labor a negative supply shock on goods

26:59a negative supply shock in the energy market as well man how do you achieve that story of getting inflation back to target without demand destruction because right now barring a piece of cord in the middle east i don't see where the positive supply response comes from yeah look i you know the early stages of this coming out of covid we did see this immaculate disinflation taking place where we were able to get inflation from very high levels down on the core pc index closer to 3 percent that had the fed you know tightening policy very aggressively helping to bring inflation expectations into check but as you mentioned we had very positive supply side forces at that point in time it's very different right now you know you have all the supply the negative supply side forces that you mentioned the fed cannot do anything about those but there's also a very robust demand force a i related investment is strong consumer spending growth is strong as well and so i do think that inflation is likely stuck you know core pc between two and a half and three percent unless the fed acts and the ultimate question was were they happy enough or content enough

28:03with an environment where their forecast would be to two and a half percent into the future and i think we just now see that the feds patients has run out and they think they need to act i think that's the right move mat the issue you've described i when you've identified the parts of the economy that are supporting the economy right now they're the most right in sensitive parts of the economy the right sensitive parts of the economy already on its knees and i just can't hammer even more so mat ultimately what we've identified here are the things that are supporting prices at the moment are the things that this rate height is nothing about so mat before we go into this news conference can you point to exactly what this hike achieves this afternoon sure so i think you're absolutely right that there are sectors for which financial conditions are the housing market is the clear example i think it's also right that a i related investment is not going to come down simply because the fed hydrate by 25 basis points today that's clearly not going to derail incentives around around a i but what it can do is help to tighten broader financial conditions it helped it can help to lift the dollar it can help bring to equity markets down a bit it can help to lead to wider credit spreads those things through various channels will

29:06reduce demand side pressures that is what the fed can do that's what monetary policies intended to do you know i think that there's just very strong signals that monetary policy is not restrictive is not sufficiently restrictive the feds goals and and what they have to do is essentially set monetary policy so that it is sufficiently restrictive to get inflation down to target over a time period that they are happy with and that's what that today is intended to do i think it's the right move to do that mat thank you sir as predicted by you matless out of the of torture bank and others to a 25 basis point hike from this federal service signal they'll go again before the end of the year most people who come on this program will suggest that won't happen in October right before the election we'll see we'll see and then again in 27 maybe they'll go again nil dutter was one of the first to react over at ren mac you made the point that they're underestimating how much they'll need to do to get inflation back to target now mad talked about financial conditions and maybe doing it through that channel Lisa we've had yields up at the front end by 100 basis points year today equally as a higher credit spreads have done nothing even with a mountain of supply

30:07going into wide gee where the time financial conditions coming from this we've been asking this for for quite a while and it's a good point to bring up i'm glad you really went on hard on that because ultimately a question here is what exactly is 25 basis points going to do given the fact that we already have that baked in what will 75 basis points do what a 100 basis points do ultimately how much is it just a signaling to financial conditions is that really the transmission mechanism to slow down some of the deals activity to potentially bring in place a hard of the matter you nailed it like some people would say they should have gone 50 basis points today the fact is 25 basis points is nothing except for the guy at 1600 pencil vignan avenue and we have to see the response from the White House to this I thought was that he was just absolutely brilliant there on this nirvana that they're in you know what how do you get that how do you get inflation down and you keep saying demand destruction it's fancy talk okay it's just slower economy who wants a slower economy into an election this is the pain that the former Fed Chair talked about at Jackson

31:08Hall when we were all together a few years ago a few summers ago he talked about the pain required to get inflation back to target unemployment still around four there are people in pain in this economy I certainly don't want to understand that there are but at the aggregate level the headline number you don't see it in unemployment right now you certainly don't see it in GDP and that's why people are wondering whether they're willing to go that extra mile are they actually really willing to cause that kind of problem that demand destruction to get inflation back to target you have in Gordon of Choshua said the struggle of this supply shock environment the inflation data might it times be driven by any of the syncricies but the Fed deals and aggregates they have a blunt tool it's their only tool it is not clean it potentially will take come some casualties but it's the only tool they've got and that was the conversation that we had with Beth Hammock in Jackson Hall and clearly a lot of federal officials are on board with that that does going to open any second now the Fed share Kevin Wash was stepping some inside baseball for you when the journalism front might be telling us that they've reordered the press room in alphabetical order so now might be key is on the second row and a Wall Street Journal is at the back I've got no idea what that means

32:11for how the questions are asked and what order they're asked in but that's what I heard we heard about 45 minutes ago yeah I give that's one of a number of changes that may come down the pike for this meeting I am curious how long it's going to end up being as well healthcare doesn't always work great if you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment you get it that's the kind of stuff optimum is changing they're using data and technology to integrate patient care pharmacy and everything else so healthcare is connected not complicated what's that look like cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person how you need it optimum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone learn more at business.optim.com

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