Investors Are Turning Against Data Centers (Here's Why)

0:00Support for the show comes from Alpha Space by Yahoo Finance. Alpha Space by Yahoo Finance is the advanced investing platform you've been waiting for. My co-host, Scott Galloway, is a fan of the platform here is what he had to say. So I have been using Yahoo Finance as my portal for finance, from not exaggerating about 30 years. I think they do a great job. You can explore Alpha Space with a Yahoo Finance Gold subscription and right now your first year is 50% off. Head to Yahoo Finance.com slash ProfG. That's Yahoo Finance.com slash ProfG. Builders $239.70 for the first year, then $479.40 thereafter, offer valid for new subscribers in the US, offer ends October 31st, 2026. Interrupted sleep, headaches, constant fatigue. For a lot of women these aren't three separate issues. In Perry, Menopause and Menopause they're often the same hormonal story. And you don't have to quietly push through.

1:05Midi can help because your symptoms have answers. Visit joinmidi.com with codevox right now to book your first visit today. That's joinmidi.com. Codevox to book your first visit. Joinmidi.com. Codevox. Insurance coverage varies. Check with your plan for coverage. Payday bars have a bone to pick with the other candy bars. Enough with the toppings and layers and stuff. Payday bars are just salty, crunchy peanuts and sweet caramel. Delicious. Payday. Paynot caramel bar. Today's number 40. That's the percentage of global container exports that come from China. Ed, this morning I decided to play Frisme with my youngest and it kept hitting bigger and bigger and I couldn't figure out why and then it hit me. It's kind of cute, right? That jokes 101. Is it making one of kids? Absolutely. I can see it now. Frisbee in the backyard playing catch. I'm already very excited. Yeah, I'm screaming. I hate you and not coming home and you're up late worried. Yeah.

2:27Yeah, that's part of it too, just so you know. Richie. Yeah, so you know. Oh damn. Okay. It's not what they advertised. I'm having such a nice time. My son, as you've probably heard, is a freshman at college and I call him every day to relive college. I'm having such a... I'm back at college. You're guling him every day? Let's ease up on that. I speak to both my sons every day. Wow. Maybe I didn't speak to my parents enough or didn't speak to my parents enough. So I think what you're saying is your parents didn't give you enough love. No. It's kind of my... I think of it as my... I do it a couple of work. I'm purchasing it right now. But I think it's more for me. Lower my blood pressure to hear my boys voices. But I think that... Yeah, I think it's good for both of us. You're probably right. I'm probably being quite unfa... And it's not like a long drawn out conversation where I give them a lesson about interpreting Odyssey for their life. It's... It's... Hey, what'd you do today? How'd you do on the biology test? Bet you're not working on paying for everything you need to do better.

3:31And then... You know, who... Who are they playing this weekend? What's going on? All right. Have a good rest of the night. I love you. As long as it's quick and crisp. Yeah, you're right. Because actually I think one of my problems with my conversations with my parents is we don't talk for a while. And then each phone call... You know it's going to be like a 30 to 45 minute thing. Because there's so much context that you got to catch them up on. So yeah, maybe that's the solution. Just sort of like a one minute check in daily. It sounds like a lot there. But maybe it's good. Well, it's such a good hack. It's pick up the phone. What's going on? What are you doing? It's such... It's like a... I'm serious. It's like an anchor for me emotionally, mentally just tearing their voice quickly. And occasionally they don't answer. So I just call back like an obsessive girlfriend. And like there's no hiding from the dog. There's no hiding from the dog. And then I start texting them. And I'm like, you know I haven't paid you tuition yet. Pick up the phone. Do you schedule the phone calls? Are you just spontaneous? I try and do it around the same time. So I know that they're free. I try and do it kind of like a little bit before bedtime.

4:41Sort of as a... I like the idea that art conversations are the last things they do. But you know, my dad had a similar practice with me. On the dot, every winter Olympics, he would check in. That's good. He was consistent every four years. When, how are you doing your oatmeal sandwich? Who is this? Dad? Dad? I like that every four years. Maybe there's a happy medium. No matter what, Ed. No matter what. Well, I was judging at the beginning, but I think you've turned, man. I think you're right on this. I think every day is good. I think it's healthy. Quick, brief check-ins. I like it. If you wanted to do something, especially if you're a mom, just call her every day for 30 days and freak her out. If you won't know what's going on. Hey, just checking in. Hey, just checking in. Everything good? Yep. I'm at that Asian arm. So anxious. When my friends call me, I'm literally like, they pick up and I'm like, who's dad?

5:41It's, it's, but no. I would love, actually, this is a great experiment. I hope you imagine. Your parents sound like really bright and interesting and discerning. So I doubt they listen to this podcast. But I would love an experiment. Call your mom seven days straight and don't, you know, don't, not what's up? Oh, nothing. I just wanted to check in. Do that seven days straight and then report back. Yeah. I think it's a good idea. Now I'm feeling bad about how often I call my parents, but that's probably a good thing. Something to reflect on. I like they gave you life. I totally flip now that I'm the parent. I find it guilt trips. I think it's good. I mean, little bit of guilt is probably pretty healthy. All right. Let's talk about data centers. Let's do it. We got a lot to get into here. Now is the time to find. I hope you have plenty of the world. The data center build out is starting to make Wall Street anxious. Last week, Oracle sent a force, major notice to the developer, I bet it's data center project.

6:48The company wants the option to delay payments. If the data center is not operational by 2028, that news sent Oracle stock down 5%. Meanwhile, several other companies tied to the data center industry have delayed their planned IPOs. One of them is SB energy, which was supposed to go public this month. According to the New York Times, its bankers couldn't find enough buyers at the company's targeted valuation of $50 billion. The company is reportedly waiting to go public until investor sentiment towards data centers improves. It's not alone. The whole tech nuclear is also postponing its IPO indefinitely. I think I'm pronouncing that correctly. It is delaying its own timeline. So it's got a lot of issues in data center land. We have a SP energy, which is quite literally a data center company by definition was supposed to go public. It's now delaying that. We will get into that in a moment. The whole tech, this nuclear services company that also delayed and according to the CEO is because the business is, quote, viewed as connected to data centers.

7:55I agree, Co, which is this generation company also services data centers also delaying and then the big news Oracle sending a notice to the developers of project Jupiter, one of its biggest data center projects. And they cited what is known as this force measure, which is essentially this legal maneuver that is designed to relieve you from any liability, any obligation. If some event happens that would prevent you from fulfilling your agreement and a lot of people I think are correctly interpreting that as Oracle isn't sure that this whole data center build out is actually going to work out. So what happened Oracle stock falls 5% blue owl. And those are the guys that are financing the development of this data center that stock fell 7%. So a lot of risks to the data centers, a lot of delays, a lot of red flags. What do you make of this? The only edit I would have is I think force measure is like force of God, something like an earthquake or a war, right? Where you have a legitimate reason to say, okay, this is just not normal business standard operating procedure and I should have an out here.

8:57So the framing here or the question is, is SB energy, the canary and the coal mine? And I would argue that it's it's the canary asking for a 50 billion dollar valuation on a mine that hasn't even dug yet. And if anthropic and open AI are having to delay their IPOs, there's just a ton of second tier septic tank AI dot com AI, you know, pretending jazz hands AI companies that are not going to get out. And this company had no business going public. Let's just talk about the numbers here, 214 million revenue down 8%. So that's I'm sorry at 50 billion, they wanted to go out at 234 sales for a company that's the revenues are declining. Zero operating AI data centers. This is just fucking ridiculous. This is, and I love that the markets are just just gag on this thing.

9:58Only about 9% of contracted capacity is under construction. Essentially what they're trying to do here is they're trying to get a 50 billion dollar valuation on a PowerPoint with a soft bank logo. And if you compare it to I think the closest comp would be solar. It's worth about 1.2 billion. So credit to them for Adam Newman like salesmanship trying to elevate the world's consciousness or or decrease it enough such that they could fool people into paying 234 times sales for a company that's declining. The kind of the bigger story in the more important story is this kind of quote unquote oracles forced measure. That's that's an active God clause. And when Oracle invokes forced a measure what they're really saying is that the God is credit markets. This isn't an existential event. This is the market saying you're out over your skis. And that is this might be the dark fiber of the cycle in the dot com build out telecoms laid tens of millions of miles of fiber.

11:05You and around but this is generally what happened. B to see pets dot com. Oh wait, that's not working. Oh wait, B to B internet capital. Wait, that's not working. Well, I believe in the internet. So just invest in the infrastructure invest in the steel on the ground. And all this money piled into global crossing and Cisco and those things lost if they didn't go bankrupt lost 90% of its value. And it wasn't that the fiber wasn't wrong. It was just early. And it's the definition of wrong when it goes on a balance sheet. The physical world is the real friction risk here. And that is 45 projects were 68 billion dollars were blocked or delayed in three months and 30 to 50% of this year's capacity is facing delays. One of the most powerful entities in this AI story right now is a senior citizen who's angry and doesn't have a lot has a lot of time showing up at a town hall. So the IP window is to tell private markets lie and public markets don't private markets can have stupid marks public markets have granular marks.

12:15And we'll say no, we're not we're not buying this we're not going to let you wave your hand AI hands over this and turn this chicken shouldn't it chicken salad. And when the bankers can't find a book. It means the smart money stops buying the story and you know wants to see actual progress that the K shaped economy is a decent metaphor for AI right now or the AI trade and that is one has cash flow like Nvidia and the hyperscalers. And the other has a quote unquote potential like sp energy whole tech the neoclouds and and the second group is about to get very familiar with the term cost of capital. Yeah, it's kind of halting that investors on buying this this BS agree. I like this. It is BS. I think esp energy is like the perfect example here is this sort of declining solar business that decided now we're going to get into date centers. They say that they have all these data centers except they don't have any data centers they have zero data centers that are operating.

13:17As you said 9% are under construction the other more than 90% haven't even broken ground. They keep on talking about this multi hundred billion dollar revenue backlog. But then you kind of dig in and you realize hold on none of this is actually going to materialize within the next two five even 10 years. And then you start to realize this thing doesn't make any sense especially at 50 billion dollars. And that is the problem. It's like, OK, your business is an ascent business. It's very speculative. There's a lot of risk. Let's see that reflected in your price. But they're refused to do that. They say no, we're worth 50 billion dollars. We're worth more than 230 times sales. We're going to go out and we're going to do this thing. And you you hope that people look at it and go, no, thank you. This doesn't make any sense. And that is exactly what happened. They were rejected clearly when they tried to shot this thing around on Wall Street. And it seems like investors are kind of understanding what the BS here actually is and what to look for. We're seeing it across the board here. We're seeing it with all of these other companies. It might be what we're seeing in terms of the open AI delay.

14:24I mean, it's not totally clear why they're delaying. We know that Sam Altman said that he didn't think that it was it was the right time. But I think probably what he's realized is we're in an era where investors are actually quite discerning at this point. They're not just going to gobble up your BS no matter what. And I think there are multiple dynamics here that are playing into this data center build out risk. One of them is more of a technical risk, which is I would say that constructing these things is actually quite difficult and financing these things is quite difficult because the input prices are very volatile. You have the price of memory and the price of energy and the price of GPUs and liquid natural gas. And these are all multi year projects that can basically be terminated if they're late by even a year. So that's already a difficult thing to deal with. And it seems like a lot of data center companies are just pretending that that risk doesn't exist. Then you also have as you point out this demand supply problem, which is that similar to 1999. We actually don't know what the demand will look like.

15:30A lot of people are just saying stuff that putting their PowerPoint decks together, they say, demand's going to go like this. We're going to have huge. Kager, it's going to be incredible. But of course, no one actually knows and there is a high likelihood a high probability that we will over build will have too much supply and suddenly you won't be able to charge the lease rates that they're charging today and suddenly the economics don't make sense. That needs to be recognized. And then the third thing I think is the most important, which you mentioned is that America hates this stuff. Just flat out 70% of Americans opposed the data center in their neighborhood. This is becoming the issue. It's becoming almost like the midterms are a referendum on AI every politician needs to have an AI strategy. And it seems like most of them are just going in a direction of it's bad. I'm going to be against it. I think that maybe exception would be the president. He's been very pro AI. But clearly this is going to be a problem. And I just want to point you to a quote from the CEO of core we have, which is another one of these Neo Cloud companies.

16:31And to me, this really encapsulates me. I found this quote. This really encapsulates the problem here. He said on the Q2 on his quote, we feel like moratoriums are not going to impact the demand for this infrastructure, which to me is like a massive vote of no confidence because clearly this has become a problem that is too large to ignore. And yet a lot of these leaders of these data center companies are ignoring it. They're saying it's not a problem. AI is going to be great. The moratoriums won't be a problem. Clearly this is something that needs to be actually addressed. And if you want to inspire the confidence of Wall Street, then you need to acknowledge the elephant in the room and explain and lay out exactly how you're going to address it. I don't think these companies are doing that. And I think that is why they're getting punished when they try to go to Wall Street and they try to take these things public. The question is, is this the beginning of the correction or just a bump in the road? This company trying to get public and not being able to get public, which is a good thing. And then people just highlighting how ridiculous some of this shit is.

17:35This is, it feels very 99 to me. It feels very, when we looked at some of this stuff and said, okay, this just doesn't make sense. That felt like a key component of pre-stage crash that finally the market says, no, no, this is, you know, even we aren't this stupid. Part of me wonders though, is that a bearish signal or is it perhaps even a bullish signal because it might say that we're in a healthy market where the skepticism is now being priced in. And I, I'm actually not sure where I stand on this, but one thing that I've been looking at, which I think is quite interesting, is in video's valuation right now. And Bloomberg just wrote a whole lot's gone this, which I thought was very good. Pointing out that on a forward earnings basis, Nvidia's trading at 17 times earnings, which is its lowest level in more than a decade, down from 32 in 2025.

18:35That's as wild. So I can't tell. I mean, I think there are a lot of things in that, in that price. I think that what we're seeing priced in is the fact that Nvidia has been the largest player in terms of GPUs. And now they have a lot of competition and Google's building chips and Amazon's building chips and all these companies are also competing with them. And so it seems as though their modes are beginning to narrow. But I also wonder if we're starting to see the skepticism priced in to the broader market. And I'm not sure I keep going back and forth on this because I kind of want to see it come down a little bit more. I mean, if we look at the trailing PE, it's a little bit of a different story. But, you know, still similar, the trailing PE is down to 28 times earnings is, I mean, it's down from 50 last year. But that's still higher than the S&P average, which you'd expect for a company like Nvidia. But I think that there is a question here of to what extent are investors pricing us into the most important and systemic stocks in the AI trade.

19:43And Nvidia, to me, is the metaphor for the AI trade. And on a multiple basis, it's trading down. And the earnings are rising way fast in the stock itself. So I don't know, do you have any views on that? I'm personally a little torn. I was thinking maybe this is a buy, but I don't know if I'm there yet. Josh Brown is, you know, he said Nvidia's, I think Nvidia has been the best thing that happened to Rithold 12 management and to Josh's credit. I think it was in it really early. Yeah, I was one of his big calls. He's up like 10,000% on it. Yeah, the PE ratio looks, it makes the stock look cheap. The problem is, is certainty around those earnings. Yes. Because you have a company that seems to be engaging in a lot of kind of seller financing and circular deals. And it feels like the first place as people, if the unbelievable expectations around the business required to justify this catbacks doesn't keep doubling every 60 or 90 days.

20:45It's logical to think that people scale back their catbacks and that the tip of the spear that really feels that that pullback would be Nvidia. At the same time, if you were going to do a play in the AI space, I'm not even sure I would do a basket of AI because I feel like there's so much crap in it right now. It's like when, when I talk about buying a basket of Chinese stocks and assos says, don't do that because there's so much crap. You do need to do a stock picker. It does feel like Nvidia's Manhattan real estate. And that is in good times it goes up 20% and bad times it goes down eight. It's just not, it feels like Nvidia is a safer play and to your point, I mean, is Nvidia like Facebook or meta where it has all these existential risks, but we all wish we bought in when it was trading at these multiples of earnings, right? So in the honest answers, I don't know, but to your point, if I were going to put money into the AI trade and I haven't and I'm just furious because I'm one of these guys who missed the whole thing and kept saying it's too expensive.

21:50It's a bubble and then it triples. That feels like going, going to Malibu beachfront real estate, which is, you know, they're the, they're the, they're the class of the whole thing. They're the, they're the ground zero of this and it's well run. And so, the Benson is a great promoter. He comes across is somewhat earnest as he tries to convince us that it's in our best interest to sell China our most advanced GPUs, which my opinion makes absolutely no sense. But I'm sympathetic to the notion that there might be, you can see Nvidia doubling from a P perspective. So, the question is, can you imagine it 80 or an 80 or a $10 trillion company, right? So it's, but I, I agree with your sentiments that if you were going to, if you probably going to put fresh capital into the public markets because you don't have access to the private markets, it does feel, I don't want to call it cheap, but less insane than some of this other crap.

22:53Yeah, I mean, if you were trying to get into the AI trade and you had a choice between investing at Nvidia here or investing in like the anthropic IPO at 2 trillion or whatever the numbers going to be for the open AI IPO, to me, I'd say this is your pick hands down because it has gotten somewhat punished. I mean, I think this goes to what we've been saying about where the bubble actually is. This is not a comprehensive bubble that is, that is afflicting the entirety of the market. The bubble seems to be that it's seen to be multiple bubbles in little pockets of the market, including I would say the private markets, especially open AI, granted we'll see when they go out to the public markets. And as we've, as you've said, the public markets are a lot more discerning the private markets. In a lot of ways, you'd say that the public markets are the smart money compared to the private markets, which might be the dumb money, which will just eat anything up. But I do think that that's going to be the dynamic to watch. And you also brought up the durability of forward earnings, the credibility of forward earnings.

23:58That to me is a really big question. I feel like we take forward earnings as a given. We just assume that it just it always happens and that we should trust it. But I think with numbers this large, and when you do have Oracle going to its largest developer and saying like, hey, if something happens, just count us out, please. And what actually is the definition of an extraordinary exogenous event, yeah, it could be like an earthquake, could be a pandemic. Or as you say, it could be related to their credit rating. It could be something that actually is not that extraordinary given the circumstances that we're seeing financially with the company. When you have all of that, that really calls into the question, the credibility of the earnings that we're supposed to see in the future. And so I think that there's a lot of uncertainty with this right now, a lot of risk, but it might be priced in. The investors might that might be why the multiples come down. So significantly. But it's definitely a toss up. It's really interesting.

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28:28Offer valid for new subscribers in the US, offer ends October 31st, 2026. We're back with ProfG markets. There has always been one company that seemed destined to win the streaming wars and that company is Netflix. But this year, that certainty has faded. Netflix stock is down more than 40% over the past year and the company just received two analysts downgrades within a week. Both analysts said growing competition from YouTube and declining engagement were weighing on the stock. Meanwhile, Disney plus and Hulu are raising their prices for the four time in four years. The biggest increase will be to the ad free tiers, which will cost 13% more than they did last year. The latest example of what people are calling streamflation as streaming services continue to raise prices while consumers have more options than ever. So Scott Netflix has gotten crushed down more than 40% in the past year, down more than 20% year to date. It just received two downgrades on Wall Street in the span of a week. Well, as Fargo cut its price target to 57, it's 71 right now.

29:43HSBC cut it to 76. So actually, that's a hold, but they still cut. This has been a disastrous 2026 for Netflix. And of course, this is happening while Paramount has just settled and essentially has gotten the green light to go ahead and acquire Warner Brothers Discovery, which Netflix wanted at one point. And they seems to be in that auction. Now they're out for sure. What do you make of Netflix getting punished? I got this wrong when I saw I saw Ted Sarandas and the head of Oh gosh, I'm blank on last name Bella, like super impressive woman, who oversees a $17 billion content budget. And I said to them, you you know, you dodged a bullet here. You've now got $120 billion to go acquire Disney or massively increase your content creation calendar and the stock is just plummeted. Which is which caught me off guard. I think that essentially this isn't about Netflix is under performance. It's about that this indicates what I believe is just a structural shift in the way we consume content.

30:58And the subsequent shareholder value that's able to be captured specifically their problems can be summarized in two words. The first is you and the second is tube. YouTube is now the most important media company in the world doesn't make any content. It commands 14% of US TV usage. Think about what YouTube's done. They've built the world's largest studio. But managed to outsource the payroll to 20 million creators. I mean this business model is just it's very hard to compete with. And you want to talk about decline in fortunes Netflix is lost more market capitalization. From it's high. Then paramount is paying for all of Warner Brothers discovery twice over the market while we're all obsessed with the Ellison's and Warner Brothers discovery and Rob Bonta announcing is running for governor with this purest stupid regulatory theater of trying to like block them or all that distraction. The market just to raise to Hollywood studios from Netflix's market capitalization. And hours are up 2% but content is up spend is up 10% so that's a negative arbitrage when you spend 10% more to get 2% more attention.

32:14Your attention arbitrage is negative right. And then what you have is 58 with Gen Z 58% spend more time on social video than streaming. So the competitor here isn't Disney plus. It's a 19 year old with a ring light. And streamflation you mentioned that word it's kind of like bundle recidivism. We cut the we cut the cord to avoid. For some reason I ended up paying $300 for my cable bill in New York. But we've we've rebuilt the bundle one app at a time with worse user interface and force for price hikes in a year and it seems to have hit hit a wall. I've always believed these guys have pricing power but what it may be is that it's like a restaurant raising prices as the as the room empties. And I still think Netflix has probably the strongest management team in what I call traditional media. But there is a structural shift that they can't I don't care if they come up with the next Kpop demon hunters or whatever the whatever the you know the next hit is the way we consume media is moving towards a model of shorter form content with a host with millions of

33:31creators who all have their own trailer their own production values. It's just such an it's just such an unbelievable model to figure out a way to get other people to pay for your content. And you just put a thick layer of innovation on top of it. And again my idea and I pitched it to test around us three years ago with something called net vibes. And I said take the ninety eight percent of your content that gets two percent of the watch time you know it's is a hit driven business. And make it open source and let creators slice and dice at different music create different story lines and then repost it. But they need to do something that feels more YouTube and tick talk because I think going to the hits of trying to come up with the next game of thrones. I think that's going to be a tough one. I have long felt that traditional streaming is just a terrible investment for a lot of the reasons that you describe and you know this about me I've set on the podcast.

34:33I mean I've been bullish on YouTube for years now because it has this very different identity it's genetics are very different from Netflix in that it it benefits from network effects it is in a lot of ways a user forward social media platform. Where they as you say that they're not paying to create all of the original content the users are doing all of the original content for free and you all YouTube has to do a sit there make sure that their algorithm works and by the way that algorithm is excellent. And I think that is a big reason for why a lot of people are watching on YouTube and it we're users or creators on the platform. It works for us. I mean we have invested significantly in YouTube and it pays off for us we're increasing our downloads we're increasing our views we're still able to monetize that. And so the YouTube model works for us and yeah we pay a pretty significant cut on the ad sense revenue but it still works for us because we're monetizing in video ads at the same time.

35:38So to me I think YouTube has just crushed it on every level and the way I think about streaming I don't see any modes in traditional streaming aside from having better more original content and to me that is an almost impossible moat to operationalize so I've long thought we should only be investing in these companies at evaluations that reflect that that lack of moat. I think that we should be demanding significantly lower multiples and I'm going to take a semi victory lap here because last year I officially realized like Netflix was overvalued. I don't know if you remember this but there was that that obstacle that came out that Netflix was internally talking about how they wanted a trillion dollar valuation. And I don't know if you remember what happened after that but the stock ripped because suddenly investors like oh my god look how ambitious the management at Netflix is they want to go for a trillion what does that mean what does that say I was looking at the stock at $120 per share in July of 2025 here is what I said about it.

36:50Netflix is now valued at roughly the same multiple as Nvidia and a higher multiple than Apple and Google and meta but Netflix unlike those companies isn't diversified it doesn't have a hardware business or an ad empire or a cloud platform it has one product streaming and in that world it's even being out competed where it matters most time spent in the past year. YouTube has increased its total share of US streaming views by roughly three percentage points meanwhile Netflix has share actually declined slightly and now we're trading at $70 a share so it's come down basically 40% since we put that episode out. I think the question now is like has it been punished enough. I mean we're looking at 22 times trailing earnings there are other banks that are actually overweight Netflix ever core their price target is 110 BMO's price target is 135 the average on Wall Street now is 94 so that would imply more than 30% upside from here.

37:58So maybe now's the time my personal view is I think that it still has room to come down I just I'm not I'm not excited by this business and I just think it's such a tough business to be in the churn rates the fact that you have to spend all of this money on original content the fact that they're not bad in benefiting from the network effects that YouTube clearly is I just don't see them in a structurally sound. I think that's a good position to grow in the way that Wall Street wants them to so what I sense in your comments is what I suffer from and one of my biggest flaws is investors no matter how cheap something gets I think it's going to get cheaper. I look at it stocks get cheap because they're facing structural or cyclical headwinds and you think wow it's going to get cheaper I didn't want to buy house in in Delray Beach because I'm like oh recession is coming and my partner forced me to buy it and it's tripled. It is very hard to pick the bottom the reason why I'm actually looking at Netflix stock is that you always got to look evaluation you basically made this made the case of like look it's a great business and it's overvalued it's trading like a growth software company and it's not it's more vulnerable than the valuation would imply you were right to stock someone's been cut in half since then the multiple has compressed from 12 to 6 times sales.

39:23And it's essentially the one of the best media companies in the world or arguably the best media company in the world if you think of media companies actually creating content and it's trading like a cable company and in more broadly I think of Netflix as the best run company that is essentially the operating system for entertainment and that is it is the home screen for so many TVs now. That they just have so much influence when I when I heard they were getting the podcasting business I thought okay how's that can impact us because. Effectively anyone any podcast they put on their home screen becomes one of the 10 biggest podcast companies in the world. And similar to Apple or Instagram's become an operating system they are kind of the starting point or the home page for entertainment they have an incredible management team and an incredible content machine they're going to have to do something they're going to have to.

40:23They come some come up with some sort of product innovation around around the clipable economy or clip economy what you call it their ad sales business has been stronger than I think I anticipated and is a you know is now I think responsible for a large portion of their sign ups at a lower cost yeah that was a good move I just don't think you want to bet against this management team and those 350 million households that start their relaxation time. On their home screen I actually quite bullish I think on Netflix right now okay I like it we disagree but I see your point I think it's you think it's got further to go down I'm not super confident but what I know is that I don't want to buy and there you go I just I don't like the long term prospects of the company I could see but you know I don't think that it's got much more I don't think it's going to increase significantly this year I'll say that we may we can check it at the end of the year. But the more interesting conversation is can you link your bear sentiments on Netflix to the fact that your parents don't love you.

41:29I've been waiting for several minutes for an opening there are always internal biases that I need to figure out before I start assigning price to trust me boss you're going to need a bigger boat when I try to sus out like all the dysfunction in my wife from the bad decisions I make that is that is a long way to go. I'm not a big deal because that is a long walk through a crowded forest maybe I need to go to therapy before I start talking about stocks again maybe that's what that I went out to dinner that's not I'm an Aspen and I'm walking home and there's a bear and I honestly I'd ask myself have I finally lost it in my hallucinating is this like is this that moment where they take away my driver's license and that's even scarier than thinking it's a real bad that's a terrifying thought that's what I thought I thought okay is that really a big deal. Is that really a bear or I might find me just like a lost it's amazing and it was a real bear good that's great everywhere.

42:30I'm so glad it wasn't an illusion just the final comments here. We're about to see a different world in media because paramount is going to buy one of brothers discovery here. Because we saw this paramount settlement essentially David Ellison won I'm just yeah define one talk about the dog catching the car anyways go ahead that might mean something for Netflix I think you made an interesting point which is your point to Netflix was like okay now you have like a hundred billion dollars to spend on something else. I think that one of the reasons they've been punished so much is because investors hated what seemed like a lack of ideas from Netflix and the fact that they lost in a battle that they wanted to pursue. I think investors said what why are you doing that you we thought that you were so confident that you're going to become a trillion dollar company and now you want to go spend a hundred billion dollars trying to buy one of brothers discovery.

43:33What is that say about your vision for the future probably nothing good but these things are all related paramount they're going to merge so how does that change things for you if at all I don't think Netflix is competition is a Warner Brothers paramount I think it's YouTube. And if first off Rob Bonta trying to block this thing is ridiculous I was on his decided he's Lena con and he should be evaluating in my favor was the settlement have you did we talk about this they have to put together an editorial board we you and I did not talk about it but talk about it because it's it's fucking ridiculous well I want to announce the proffedure media is putting together an editorial board of lay my great day who will have more impact and influence on my editorial the same thing. On my editorial decisions in this board he said you can't sell your two lots that's fucking socialism owners get to decide and come is get to decide whether they buy and sell the there was no reason to block this merger if they he had blocked this merger paramount would become a distressed asset probably sold for parts.

44:39CBS news has no future as an independent company it just producing quality journalism which CBS mostly does is is a terrible value proposition and it doesn't matter how good landman is this is now a business to scale Warner Brothers discovery is a great company with incredible IP that would have been fine but it didn't have much of a future they need these guys need to bulk up against an already bulky netflix and a bulkiest of the bulky YouTube. So that was ridiculous regulatory theater trying to get in the way of this merger and asking them my favorite was we want you to make more movies guarantee to make more movies well okay that's like the tap more than goldman merge do you force him to have more a tms maybe they shouldn't make more movies. And also there are a lot of fire people that's part of capitalism side I think that was total total BS I totally agree you know I would have been I would have been okay with it if he'd actually achieved a decent outcome but the fact that he goes out there he says this can happen and then gets basically nothing and then parades around as if he wants something it's like oh great we're going to get editorial oversight and who's going to be in charge of the editorial oversight David Ellison and red bug capital the the the two.

45:56Entities that already control the company so no we're not getting any editorial inside that's not a brag you didn't win anything for free speech or democracy in any dimension and then yeah then they just bring up this kind of BS stuff about oh now now you we're going to make sure that you spend more in california as if that's something that ever mattered to paramount in the first place like none of that matter it was just such a such a dismal failure on the part of. Bonta and the AG's trying to act big trying to act tough losing and then pretending that they still want at the end of it so I totally really I think governor news and play the role here I would imagine the governor stepped in and said boss California just can't be an AI story. We need our media ecosystem as healthy as possible and Allison start making noises about moving to Nashville which I thought was was probably also bullshit. But no billionaire son is going to hang a national not what can not what can live large with that else in a shame our go or go to or go to San Vicente bungalows in L.A. anyways but this was I'm glad the merger went through my you glad it went through there's no reason I believe in capitalism these companies need to bulk up to compete against YouTube and meta they're not they don't work as independent companies so I'm I don't like media consolidation but I'm also a realist in a capitalist they get to buy this this comes.

47:15Combined company did not trigger monopoly law they get to buy shit and the faster the only way to get people to hire is you let them fire if they want so and this was pure pure theater I'm you know I hope that I hope that they can compete against YouTube and Netflix we want a robust third player and so I don't I wonder how the also I don't if you saw my other sister wife podcast co has care swiss or is all over the news because she's. Like I'm out of here she's leaving I hate the elephant I think she always announces that she's about to leave when is she gonna actually leave I'm leaving I'm like wait wait she's back I'm leaving again I'm like she's leaving I love car I just leave it's up talking about it I'm sure yeah she knows she knows that it's a great story that's probably what's going on well I can't get over how much media coverage it's it's received but I want to see her actually leave car leave let's see you look at the leave what I said to her is the elephants my fuck was 60 minutes because quite frankly 60 minutes doesn't I mean journalists who I think to really precious think that 60 minutes is some iconic asset not really 60 minutes could go away and it doesn't really matter it's a small business at 60 million dollars it doesn't make I don't think it makes a lot of money

48:36certainly making less money now with Ross and charge but yeah they can't fuck with CNN CNN does 1.8 billion in revenue and 6 or 800 million in EBITDA and when dad has 50 billion is on the hook for 50 billion and dad you got to leave for read and Anderson and smirk honest and Dan a bat you think that'll happen will you lock in that prediction that they will not be a massive shake up in personnel oh no way yeah CNN is going to look surprisingly did it with CBS and he was down you think CBS is less iconic and therefore he won't touch CNN my guess is he gets he offers Mark Thompson a lot of money to up his contract and says to everybody call me if you need me but I'm hands off here if he starts fucking with CNN I mean the thing is a cash is difficult to a business is CNN has been and it has gone down it is still a cash gusher

49:38and if they move away from that center left positioning someone else a fill the void and just take that those ad dollars the elephants I'm almost entirely convinced like money more than they do GOP politics I don't know there are much less expensive ways with 50 billion dollars they spent 120 billion dollars in the same with a billion dollars they could swing three senate seats in in the midterms and have a lot more impact on politics there I think they're capitalists at the end of the day I don't and I had the kid I just don't think that he's necessarily a very good one I agree with you that I don't think this is his grand plan to take over the political conversation spin things in his direction but I do think that he thinks that traditional media is bad in its current iteration and is willing to do dramatic things to shake things up that's different and I think that that's what we saw at CBS I think he is going to do something dramatic it's CNN I don't think it's going to be necessarily cynical a ponacious I'm sure it will be reported that way but I think that he'll probably go in there and say we don't need Anderson people we don't need this

50:43I'm not answering I'm going to take back Anderson but I would imagine that he would because he's too iconic but I would imagine that he does shake things up in the name of not political reasons but in the name of innovation and a new frontier and I would bet that it doesn't go down well there's two things there's product innovation if he comes in and says you know we need to spend more capital on increasing the subscription model I don't think he's going to mess with the content I'm my prediction is the up smart Thompson's contract and tries to say look you know I'm going to go make superhero films and go to Oscar parties with hot women I think that the kid is center left I don't think he's yeah he's donated to the Democrats he's he's not again we're we live in such a politically charged time that we see everything through the lens of politics journalists think they're sacred they they want the upside they want private market economics with government or nonprofit prestige and protection this is a business the elephants have massively levered up they overpaid they cannot they cannot fuck with for read I mean that's the bottom line they've got a they've got to hit

51:54in my opinion they're they're going to be hands off because they need that cash flow let's make it a bet should we say within six months of the clothes I would bet I don't know who but I would say that there would be a significant shake up in the CNN talent pool you know should we make that bet well describe significant a couple of dream team superstars I would say not by there doing that those people might leave of their own volition but I don't I'll make that bad yeah the elephants aren't going to fire any of those people in my view no way okay all right that's I think they will that's all right let's walk it in six months from the close I'm leaving I've had it wait she's here again I'm leaving again and I'm not saying anything I didn't say two hours ago I'm pivot talk about it diva just leave okay we get it you're out you don't like us do it do it do it I respect it but do it we'll be right back and for even more markets

52:59content sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets dot com pade bars have a bone to pick with the other candy bars enough with the toppings and layers and stuff K pade bars are just salty crunchy peanuts and sweet caramel delicious pade P not caramel bar this episode is brought to you by pa moliv family time isn't just the big moments it's weeknight dinners sitting around the table everyone talking all at once so when the plates are empty and the sink is full use pa ma la v ultra pa ma la's most powerful formula removes up to 99.9% of Greece leaving your dishes sparkling clean and the new convenient pump mix cleaning even easier so you can spend less time tackling dishes and more time together shop now at pa ma la dot com chronic migraine is 15 or more headache days a month each

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55:03we're back with profft market aura the maker of the popular smart ring is planning to go public this week at a 15.6 billion dollar valuation the company is looking to raise 2.2 billion dollars in the offering will be an important test for the broader IPO market a week debut could signal that investor sentiment is turning if aura succeeds it could be a bell weather for another trend growing consumer interest in health and fitness data tracking the CEO of whoop the maker of the fitness tracking bracelet recently said that his company is also targeting an IPO within the next 18 months meanwhile apple is reportedly developing a fitness wearable that could compete directly with whoop so Scott aura is going public I know that you have been looking into this company a lot what are you making this well you know do as I do not as I say I'm desperately trying to find shares in the IPO I think this is and this will be my prediction I think this is going to be

56:06really well received in the marketplace it I went to dinner last night everyone around the table for half an hour talked about how much money we are spending on quote unquote wellness whether it's red light therapy or the wolverine stack or sonas I mean people are spending so much money on fractal lasers and athletic greens and probiotics even even people your age young people rank mental and physical health above marriage and kids as goals by 35 and if you think about wellness being a new luxury and just a booming industry how do you play wellness as a retail stock investor there's this very few ways to play it and aura in my view is doing it correctly it's whereas meta is trying to put a computer on your face and pretend it's jewelry or is jewelry and its customers are mostly women three quarters are women and two thirds earn over a hundred thousand

57:11dollars women who are over a hundred thousand dollars are the premier cohort are they the most valuable consumer cohort on earth and the one to make solve the household purchasing decisions 40% of subscribers come from word-of-mouth which leads to really reasonable attractive customer acquisition costs its valuation is fair it's not cheap but it's basically going out at about eight times your revenues somewhere between garment and apple but you're paying a multiple a garment or apple multiple for a company that's growing 123 percent and has 83 percent renewal on its monthly subscription business which is six dollars a month so in addition and I wrote this up in no mercy no malice there is no company in the world that I can think of that has the fluidity of what I'll call first-party data the most valuable companies in the world have first-party data YouTube gets first-party data from you Netflix gets first-party Instagram gets direct first-party

58:13data what other company in the world gets first-party data from its customers 23 hours a day who I imagine a thinner a thick layer of innovation of AI on top that says okay Scott we've detected a 14 percent chance you develop pre pre-diabetes in the next five years here the following health it's really interesting the apple watch I didn't know this but a ring on your finger is a much more robust collection mechanism of health data than a wristwatch and the this is anecdotal evidence and I'm curious if you feel the same way but the people I know who own an aura are obsessed with it absolutely obsessed with it so what do you have you have renewal rates that are like software you have a company doubling its revenue you have what I would argue is one of the few hardware companies in history that have first-party data 23 hours a day feels like a reasonable valuation that is tapped into their killer app is fertility tracking for women so I love this

59:19company I think hardware is really difficult there's a small number a handful of companies that have been able to build a really solid hardware company I love the growth I think it's going out at a reasonable valuation so see above I'm trying to find shares yeah I think I agree with all of that I think I agree with a lot of the bull case here I'm going to try to get access to the IPO myself we'll see what happens when it actually goes out public but if we can get in that would be great because I do think that the wellness trend is a big deal and you pointed to some of the statistics there about Gen Z and millennials and young people being so obsessed with this stuff they are so obsessed with mental health with physical health this is tapping into that the financials are pretty strong I do think what happens in the long run is a different story because I think that there are some significant risks here that that they do really need to focus on and think about one will be the competition you've got whoop you've got Garmin you've got Fitbit which is cheaper you've got Apple which is reportedly developing a health tracker that is similar to whoop and why I would acknowledge that

1:00:23aura is kind of has a luxury positioning I think because they've they've really dialed into it being fashionable and it looking good which I think is really important in the wearables industry and you've talked about this a lot this is the thing that method did not recognize when they were going all in on the headset is that you look like a fool when you wear it you don't look stupid when you wear an aura you look kind of cool you look kind of health conscious it is a it is a style statement as far as wearables go but I think Apple has it it is just is able to do that as aura is and I think that there is a significant question about can the carbon protection beat aura there is another question of efficacy and the reason I bring this up is because there is a lawsuit that is accusing aura and their and their sleep tracking features of not being accurate they say that this what the claims that aura makes about the sleep health that it's not possible with the current technology aura says no it is I have no idea I'm not a tech expert but that's something to think

1:01:24about because that's an ongoing lawsuit and that'll be a problem if they win that final thing I think is the most important is this a fad because fads happen especially in style especially in wellness I mean we all thought that peloton was going to be ubiquitous across the world back in 2020 and 2021 they got absolutely pilloried in the markets the stock has come down like 99% since then there are there are health fads this this is what happens and can aura protect itself from being just a thing that was cool for a few years and become something that is actually systemic to the health world and can it actually live the test of time I'm not so sure right now which is why I'm a little hesitant but that's what I want to hear from them I want to hear how they're addressing that problem do you have any thoughts on that yeah I'll go from what I think are the least valid concerns to the most I think the lawsuit itself is pretty weak sauce I will I've read it and I don't

1:02:27think it presents much of a risk I think it probably gets settled I think it was a mostly mostly a nuisance lawsuit taking advantage of the fact they're trying to go public thinking they could extract a pound of flesh the elephant in the room is peloton right a hardware device huge IPO huge valuation crashes I would describe peloton as a COVID stock and when people were stuck at home and couldn't go to the gym you know this is different this is on your person 23 hours a day peloton was three four five times a week maybe for an hour a day and a much larger initial price point this company's grown every year for 10 years I don't I don't think it's a fat it could be I think it I think this is inextricably tied to wellness not not as a fat itself and to your point what detect guys get wrong is that people won't put anything on a visible part of themselves their hands or their face unless they think it makes them more attractive to potential mates and I think the

1:03:30or ring that's true look I look how handsome I look at always laugh at the way you phrase it I agree with you handsome I look at me see where the mixed reality has that and it's like you're basically deciding to end the DNA branch that is your company I'm always caught off God by two potential mates as a phrase and I shouldn't be because I hear it all the time it's what it's all about and the answers in each other partner with someone have kids that's everything I agree I agree and then you know and then call them every day at school anyways the I don't think I don't think it's a fat-ish I mean everyone has that drawer of fuel bands you know jaw bones this has between 83 and 80% renewal rates meaning after 12 months 8 to 9 out of 10 people still have it and decide not only to keep wearing it but to sign up for another year of six dollar a month recurring revenue which is higher retention rates by the way the netflix which is crazy right yeah

1:04:30the things that I think the things I don't like about this the majority of the proceeds are buying are going out to secondary are buying out existing shareholders yeah not a great sign that's not a good sign and a lot of people a lot of people say what's VCs who are in early or cashing out fine okay maybe I personally would like to see that capital going into the company for growth that's not that's not a good sign anytime apple is near you and anything it's an existential threat supposedly apple isn't thinking about a ring I was shocked my prediction was when that company filed that apple or samsung was going to buy them he just don't buy anything I mean never do it yeah they're not they that's not our culture having said that I do think this is an existential threat to the watch in my senses this has better data and greater loyalty greater renewal than the watch itself but anytime anytime apple gets near is potentially like one reach away from your

1:05:34business that is a real risk but yeah there's there's definite risk here but looking at the potential upside versus the risk I really like this one the ring itself is unique other companies are not building rings apples building a watch type thing or a wristband same with whoop I think that's a good point of differentiation the the the financial growth is pretty strong I think the thing that we want to hear from aura is what actually is the growth story like we can talk about how are you going to deal with the risks but how are you going to double in the next couple of years in terms of your your valuation how are you how are you going to significantly increase your footprint you're at five million subscribers how are you going to get that out are you going to expand into new products do you have a plan for new products what will those products look like are you get do you have a plan for expanding the subscription business which as it stands is

1:06:36weak compared to the hardware business I don't think that's a bad thing but is that the place where you're going to see the growth those are the questions that I want to see them really tackling because I do think that there's a lot of promise here it's rare for hardware wearables to break through it's really really hard some of the biggest most profitable most well capitalized companies in the world have tried to do it and very few have figured out how to do it in the way that aura has and to make it by the way profitable they are profitable right now which is a lot more than you can say about any of these AI companies which are burning burning billions of dollars a year so there's a lot of potential here but I can see a lot of worlds in which they screw it up and I want to see them show us how are they going to make sure that that doesn't happen. Oh I'll give you one example there are GLP1 companies I think Eli Lilly are sending out aura rings with certain programs it's not it's being attached to GLP1 fitness and sleep I mean so I think that

1:07:40I think for the next few years I mean the company doubled this year what are their non-AI companies are doubling anyway point taken. My piece of advice in terms I want to hear what you would think about this in terms of new products this is something that we were all debating as a research team which is that there is a growing sector of baby wellness tech products for example there is a company called outlet that has sort of producing a $300 oximetry tracker who knows what that is that is attached to the baby sock there is Huckleberry which is a $120 membership program for quote optimized nap predictions there is a company called Cuba AI which is a smart baby monitor with quote AI scheduled lullabies I think all of this stuff is a little bit ridiculous but I also think that we are a generation that is neurotic when it comes to health and we're especially neurotic when it probably comes to our children so I could see that for example as a potential pathway maybe you get into different markets maybe you look at wellness products for babies maybe

1:08:47you look at trying to expand your footprint with men as you mentioned three quarters of the customers of women if you had to recommend a new product or a new product line for aura what would it be something that is the third leg of the stool around GLP once what I've been reading about GLP once which as you know is my favorite technology the success is not about the GLP one it's about pairing it with fitness and nutrition and I think that a GLP one success is dependent upon support around the actual medication and I think the aura ring will be seen as part of the support or or success of GLP once and some of the stuff you're talking about with babies I think is I think there's all kinds of product ideas I think you can get maybe with the apple watch with AI and and aura to a point where it's going to say Scott your your risk of stroke has gone way up you need to talk to your doctor about this I think we're obsessed with our health

1:09:47you know women are obsessed as they should be with a fertility I see and it's only 2% of the wearable market right now so it has it has a lot of room to grow I don't if I were on that board I would be the the discipline we need is not what to do but what not to do because I think their current business model has a lot of juice left to squeeze aura head up Scott Gowry give them some shares there you go okay let's take a look at the week ahead we'll see earnings from micron and Nike we'll also see inflation data from the personal consumption expenditures index for August and finally we'll see consumer confidence and the employment report for September Scott do you have any predictions micron beats memory is the AI trade nobody talks about because every GPU needs high bandwidth memory so I think that Nvidia gets all the headlines but micron kind of caches a lot of the checks so I think micron's going to beat aura prices first trade 30 plus percent on the first trade from the IPO pricing and I get the sense they're just going off the tech stuff

1:10:53I think Nike is still in turnaround purgatory and they're still paying the price for such an interesting stock for opting for DTC over being in touch chronicle with their retail athletes and brands or or I'm sorry the retail stores and brands so I think micron and aura to the upside Nike to the downside but yeah that's those are my predictions all right my prediction in light of what we're seeing in treasure yields which keep going up the 10 year and the 30 year this entire administration is a complete shut show I made the prediction earlier on in the air that I hope the midterms would be a sweep I just want to double down on that I think the Democrats are going to take the house and the Senate which people thought was not possible earlier in the year but I think it is possible now and I think we're seeing it in the markets. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer our video editor is Jorge Carty of research teams danchland christanodon here in mere

1:11:55Severio Jake McPherson is our social producer droop boroughs is our technical director and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer thank you for listening to prof do markets from prof do media if you liked what you heard give us a follow and tune in tomorrow for a fresh take on the markets you interrupted sleep headaches constant fatigue for a lot of women these aren't three separate issues in perimenopause and menopause they're often the same hormonal story and you don't have to

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