businessSep 9, 202655:48pending

Is the Bitcoin Bottom In? The Data Says Yes | Matt Crosby

The Mustard Seed—a bitcoin and long-term thinking podcast

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About this episode

Matt Crosby joins me to break down what the data is saying about Bitcoin today and whether the bear-market bottom is already behind us.

We discuss Bitcoin’s price and time capitulation, MVRV and on-chain valuation, long-term versus short-term holders, diminishing volatility, global M2 and DXY, the four-year cycle, and the signals Matt believes point toward a new phase of the Bitcoin market.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:38 Matt Crosby’s background and Look Into Bitcoin

02:30 How predictive is on-chain data?

08:28 Why Matt uses percentile-based Bitcoin valuation

14:24 Is the Bitcoin bottom in?

19:16 Why Bitcoin bear markets happen

24:25 Price capitulation vs. time capitulation

31:39 Bitcoin’s upside as volatility declines

36:20 Rethinking long-term vs. short-term holders

43:00 Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle real?

49:00 Presidential cycles, seasonality and market myths