Meta Muse vs Instinct vs OpenAI Dots: Do AI Agents Have Any Moat?

0:00I don't know if we have the number yet for how many box our brains can contain at once because I've got about two dozen and my shit's going crazy I think I can do like 10 to 20 things at once. I realistically can do like three AI is important enough and these companies have big enough opportunities to build actual businesses But they value it at a price that assumes a stratosphere growth rate across all industries for all time probably not Yeah, like the growth rate that assumes that they will be as a business larger than the entire United States economy I wake up in the morning and I'm like what should I eat? DoorDash tells me what to eat? Where do I go? If Google Maps lady tells me turn left turn right? The trick is the technology has convinced you that you are the one in control They've been driven by sandwiches but it all right to the test more or less

1:04Why hello friends welcome to more or less guys. I'm so excited coming to you live from X headquarters You're at X headquarters, but it's amazing that still exists. It does this conference room This is the board room interesting building in San Francisco a lot of history. I thought they were out of San Francisco. Now They're here San Francisco's back baby. Haven't heard. Yeah, you got to be in San Francisco We have so many agendas got four notebooks go so we have a lot to do first of all to the morons Guess what temperature or cold plunges set up just guess a cold plunge 40 42 The answer to life the universe and everything great great answer. That's actually what mine is set to We have rolling at 39 39 this is not healthy. No, it's perfectly healthy. I am a woman. I should not be this I almost froze to death women need high 50s Dave You want a gender neutral cold punch? Yes, you know there is a solution to this jazz which is we just need to cold

2:09It's the isn't her cold punch or just don't cold plunge just I gave that a shit up long time ago The honest answer is it was off and then I asked someone to turn it on and I'm sorry It's at 39 because you liked it when it was at like 45 you liked it at 45 I am surprised. I am sitting here alive. That's all I have to say and it is related to this theme because I've also decided that if one is going to spend very concentrated periods of their life just managing the bot craziness one has to Re-center their brain on a regular basis One has to cold plunge to freeze their southern cells. I was like I got too many bots I got too many things going on. There's too much news my calves are also hurting. Can I talk about this? I was telling Dave so back in the social network days the the nascent times of the 22,000s this dude named Robin Dunbar had come up with this thing called Dunbar's number which is like how many

3:11This dude. I'm just explaining it for the layman out there Which is how many social nodes your brain can comprehend at once his answer was 150 Hence like well that was back then now it's 20 no it's still 150 well hence Dave created path and everything even if it's 150 those are real people I don't know if we have the number yet for how many bots our brains can contain at once because I've got about two dozen and my Shits going crazy. I think I can do like 10 to 20 things at once I realistically can do like three. Can you explain what you mean by you have 20 like I have like tons of sub agents. I only talk to three of them. I'm not gonna let us go down We have a whole section on bots and I'm going to announce the bot a GI challenge as well So get very excited for them, but we we're gonna jump in. What's our agenda Jess? Our agenda we have to talk about what's going on in the markets public private venture some shock waves We have to talk about dot muse instinct the latest. This will be our bot segment

4:13Is this what we talk about how you long bot dot com? Oh, no, I'm gonna see this If you buy dot com and redirected to ex which is freaking hilarious You paid like 20 million dollars for the joke, which I think is totally worth it for him It is also why how did they not own dot com? Okay, and also I don't know if you saw but there's been a worldwide global US super intelligence pact. It's official guys. Everyone signed it. It's in a court. Just it's an accord My favorite was did you see whose signature looks like a third grader? See the Brockman Brock my just wrote GBD. Well Donald Trump spelled his name wrong on something recently When he signed I heard that Trump is in town today too. Oh no Yeah, he's doing AI meetings this week. I heard he's in San Francisco here. Yeah, I have to fly in San Francisco in an hour Maybe that's what the sirens were should get him on the pod. No, we should get Marco Rubio on the pod Let's focus on the next thing guys. I have to say on the pod. I'm at yet another secret conference We have a lot of fans. I know David. I've gotten stopped at him public a lot. Yeah, I got stopped yesterday

5:19It's in a very very small world, but like a lot of people really like our podcast. So good job Yeah, we appreciate you guys. I mean, I won't say who but like top eight CEO and tech came up to us out of the blue at a different secret conference this weekend Oh, I've been looking for you to tell you like kind of stuff. So that's awesome So we should keep doing it. We love that fan and everyone else. Thank you everyone. We're happy to have you Appreciate you listening. Let's deliver some value guys Okay, so Anthropic S1 came out information subscribers would have known the numbers of course Well, it didn't come out. It was a leak, right? And it doesn't have up-to-date numbers a test to the baller Ness of the reporter at Reuters who broke it so yes, you can update the numbers, but sure These numbers are public have you seen the memes of SAS investors welcoming and throttic to the no growth table? It's really funny like people are posting these memes at like the other these SAS companies being like welcome and throttic

6:22It's more just the most mounted losses. I think that if people have been paying attention Well also the flat lining at 70 or whatever the number was people like growth flat is very scary flat lining Tell the people what flat line give them a sense of the numbers look I'm just repeating what I see on Twitter, but there was like a you know The revenue was hooking up and then like basically as token prices have dropped They're revenue shockingly just kind of flat lines and again like in a world where we're playing infinity or zero games Which is the whole world right now? Flat is very scary because flat can go up or down you do not want an S shape curve in a world of infinity games I don't think their revenue growth is zero So to be clear no, but the slope of the curve changed yeah No, the slope of the curve changed everyone's talking about second and third derivatives anyway, so you know by the way It also changed in the extreme positive direction too, which we all knew sort of wasn't sustainable problem is the whole thing when it's just Gittery right like you can't project that if you can't project and you know what the hell's going on?

7:23So Sam your view that there's no long-term predictability and growth value revenue profits of these companies I think it's true and oh my god Am I right about something? Am I being validated? Yes, so what's gonna happen to all the LPs and then VCs when the frothy and thropic might not come through? People are gonna find a way to get their bag regulatory capture Well, so though Sam and I are just singing You guys doing a lot it's sort of weird guys. I see so recruiting awesome journalists in Israel, which I'm doing Yeah, Husband is really recruiting going I had such a fascinating fun conversation last night with someone I would really enjoyed it and then I was like is it gonna be worth a 73 sleep score and I said You know what it is and that is actually one of the highest compliments I can pay to these people But macro picture is not good so even assume Anthropic is not on the table or a god bless them

8:24love them Pull their IPO and Sighted market conditions those market conditions as pod listeners realize as everyone's concerned about inflation They don't know what the fed's gonna do right you well and illustrate it wait Jess you said that and thropic is not on the table. I think Anthropic probably I think it's 60% they get out in November 40% they use The general market uncertainty to regroup a little maybe it's 65% they get out is the market that bad We're talking about aura. I don't really understand what happened here other than that they mispriced this like they priced it way too high You know they got cold feet it seems like like the market's not in that bad of shape this week Here's the question I have I like or as a product I really do and I actually you know Martin who works with Jessica was pointing out to me that years ago I was explaining why GoPro is definitely going to zero I don't think that of or I think or is fine the question is who wants to own nid assets in 2026 we're just in a world where like everyone's trying to figure out what's gonna 10 acts everyone's effectively a seed investor in the palm of the aura is like

9:28They'll do fine maybe a grows but to go for a 10 billion to it 20 billion like like what is the hundred billion dollar story? I want to answer Dave's question first which was really what is happening in the markets because it doesn't look like they're Tanking and you know day-to-day it doesn't look that bad But there is like a huge uncertainty fair underneath and a lot of that is around what's gonna happen to interest rates and Bomb prices are all over the place. So there's a lot of volatility and concern in the bond market that is back row and some of it's Just related to the Fed and inflation some of it's related to war and geopolitics But that is a factor. I think what you said is also true Sam I mean when people talk about the window being open it is for any company just a different price But like there's a lot of fear and uncertainty in the markets right now and so I think if in Anthropic gets called feet they have cover totally which is what open and I did yeah Which they probably still get out because I You just don't want to be in limbo. I think Sam it was your favorite company box.net. I love box

10:32Don't that that was many years ago and they pulled their IP out like you don't want to have to be in that limbo Customers get worried employees get worried and so forth Here's the real question the private markets and the public markets have two very different views It seems of what these companies are worth. Oh, it looks like Sam. Did you read the information this morning? I may Wall Street and Silicon Valley split over AI's price tag. Oh You know I better to conference, but I probably did read it very good stuff You're welcome. I gave you a talking point for a podcast It's worth 399 bucks. Love the information great publication totally right I just think that's like the big thing is like these things can keep raising private capital is my sense for now It's not only thinking IPO and they're done like there's lots of IPOs are like I don't like you do you IPO We don't you're not incinerating cash these things have to think about I have to raise money to the IPO and then be willing to raise

11:33Hums more money continuously and the question I think they have to ask you to ask yourself is like Who's gonna be more gracious on that when you go and it turns out right now I actually think it might just be that the public markets are not going to give them what they need Versus the private markets is better to stay private and just like run up private capital and like there's lots of people want to own these things privately For all sorts of reasons, but the second you have to deal with like actual liquidity and like what the public markets will pay I just am not sure it's the same, but then it just further constipates the whole cycle right like I was meeting with an LP Especially with aura there in like a quiet period So literally all the people who've banking on them getting out today and we're like planning all their budgets and forecasts off of this IPO as one of many that are Potentially in the stack right now. I'm talking about an LP that I was meeting with that has exposure to aura And was like I literally know nothing like I mean we're in quiet period So I don't know how to like re-forecast what I'm doing and so then if LPs are constipated and then further paused

12:33Then VCs are gonna get constipated for their pause and so down the line so much constipation a lot of constipation What's the fiber? We need some mesanax guys, I mean fine just But that's true and that's been the story of the system for some time. We've also had The hugging faces and you know all the craziness happening too So what was the big sale yesterday world bubs, but their last raise was a five billion and they sold for eight fine Yeah, but Martin Cassado and a 16z made a shit ton of money Yeah, a lot of LPs are also talking about this as a barbell strategy like there are companies that are like Gidding out meaning like getting acquired open route or world bubs etc I mean there's gonna need to be a lot more of that because there's nowhere else for these things to go or else They're gonna take 10 plus years. That's like the thinking Faith is rich Faith is great. Why does faith is all she's sell I think everyone's just in this like get your bag and get in the platform moment because everything's on the server

13:34Yeah, because distribution and also like building a frontier lab as a Stanford professor is probably not like exactly how you want to spend all your time right the problem is the this whole cycle A whole story again like and so I'll be gonna open our financially like an infection if they can't support their spending Right we all fucked not me you're fine Thank God, what do you think of the problem is like it's a really weird place where like It's in no one's incentive for these things to not work out even if you're not invested in them If you're broadly in the economy and yet There's real risk that they're not gonna work out right and that's a really weird place to be But I think one of the crazier things I saw in the late s1 is that anthropic like has over the next 10 years Over half a trillion dollars in mostly non-cancellable contracts Like booked yeah, it was my favorite sentence too is like who's making the money not anthropic It's all the cloud providers. It's like completely ridiculous or they figure out wet labs and vertically integrate and close down

14:35Their services and they're completely different business and like whatever but like it's weird It's like SpaceX is like an option on 15 different businesses plus unique rocket capabilities These guys are like in a commoditization race for their core where like again And they are options on really great stories, but they're just stories. I mean Sam back to your prior set of comments What does not work out mean for what these businesses like what does not work out mean anthropic or open AI What happens if they don't work out what does that actually mean I'd split it around and say right now like what is going on It's people are friends who's like the triangle trade like DC needs them work out. We need 8% GDP gross We don't have it. We got a huge debt problem. It's pretty We're not gonna eat well people are saying maybe four of inflation and four real like there's some of the people are Are you with the numbers but like let's it's a big number is a number much bigger than we've ever had in recent history So DC needs it the country in that way needs it right still the values have in a fucking party And then New York weirdly really needs it too because New York is like this is like a huge financial engine for New York

15:40Unlike historical tech situations where Look you can't make that much money on Facebook or Google if you're in New York because they don't need that much money It's like not your business now you need everything every insurance product everyone's freaking having a party And the problem is when you say not what happens if they don't work out I flip it around and say right now if you did not have an AI story We would be in like terribly dire straits. Yes, but like what happens if these don't work out to these companies literally shut down I'm trying to bring it down to earth for the listener like what really happens Here's what happens so we're talking about a question of valuation the first shoot a job would be around pricing evaluation which is one reason open AI isn't rushing to do this in the public markets because If the public markets are fundamentally gonna value you at a Percentage and of what you've been privately raising at that is a big event is a big event for employees It's meaningful right it changes the narrative it has practical problems and I think look many high flying companies have come out at one

16:41valuation and settled somewhere else And I think that probably is the most likely thing not that these companies have escaped velocity That's unlimited, but there's a trading event where these early investors Can take their bag and then there's some settling of what this thing looks like with the Astrox at the the liability regulation and business growth or all jump balls for how they could land At any one moment in the narrative But it's not clear that that's a death sentence It's also quite challenging then you have other issues about you know Just that we spend most of our time on the pod talking about which is how do things commoditize when as these products diffuse What is like the real underlying demand of pricing power? You know I tend to believe that AI is important enough in these companies have Big enough Opportunities to build actual businesses

17:43But or they value it at a price that assumes a stratosphere growth rate, you know Across all industries for all time probably not yeah like the growth rate that assumes that they will be as a business Larger than the entire United States economy which by the way if that happens we're gonna be communist anyway So it doesn't matter like zero and infinity are the same thing for these companies, right? Which is the weird thing and also wasn't this week the first week the versatile charts were showing the open models Outpacing the closed models to some regards. Yes like the displacement of closed versus open Continuing to be a headwind as well. Well, but it's unclear Brit you can read that chart two ways You can read it that There's a open models are out competing the closed ones but what that chart doesn't show is that Pi is getting bigger and so it's hard to tell if that chart matters to the outcome for these Companies in the public markets and the topic must believe that it has sufficient knobs to turn On token pricing and token consumption that they can get into the public market and maintain

18:44Some kind of pricing power that gives them the ability to get everybody liquid otherwise they wouldn't be doing it right If they know anything's just interesting is you look at these businesses and you're like generally speaking These public on especially at this scale. There's like two things you're investing in a core business That has some properties that you believe in and then you're buying option value on top right which is there six things That might happen to make them super valuable I think that the core anthropic business which is can you sell premium tokens to people effectively like can you sell it at a higher price in the open models Because like what you're doing is so valuable like And that people will sink infinite amounts of money into marginally better tokens That's the core business. It's been totally true for the last bunch of months. It's flat lighting Are there certain people that will pay incidentally forever for slightly marginally better tokens maybe but like that's like the weakness of the core business That whole conversation and I think things like news which again you are not as advanced as feeble But are clearly sufficient for like what more people need right kind of put a dent in that story I think there's a further nuance here Sam that I've picked up on in the last maybe a couple weeks

19:48Which is that these companies also went and built forward these like quote-unquote forward deployed companies to go Effectively be like McKinsey and service the fortune 500 or 2000 and build token operations inside of those companies with kind of the expectation that they would then be able to sell their luxury tokens to those Fortune 500 and I think that they kind of thought that this was a really good business strategy that they go and they Build software that consumes their tokens those tokens get priced at a premium and it does appear to be that There's a little bit of a business strategy Mis-hap going on here, which is that the Open models came out of nowhere and all the sudden the CFOs were like hey you built me this software to spend your tokens But like your tokens are really expensive so I kind of want to spend the other Tokens and now there's these forward deployed companies and forward deployed teams They're kind of in this weird position out there in the market and that's like a nuance that I've been picking up on that

20:49I haven't seen anybody really talking about but I think that it's a it's a thing It's playing out the flow to play thing actually weirdly you look at the balance here or whatever in a story of it's a security problem It's an integration problem that's hard to switch actually kind of makes sense for lots of people and it's just a very different business model If it's like what we're doing for deploy and we're gonna get paid on as the token is but actually The reality is and this is my biggest thing. That's what I mean. It might have been a foolish business strategy Yeah, it's just it's not a terribly in a try but the thing for me is like I keep going back to this fact I use a lot of cloud. I think cloud's excellent. It's like the core of my infrastructure brain But if I woke up tomorrow and cloud was gone I would care for about one second right and like that is the fundamental baseline problem in the core business model not necessarily unique data wet lab vertical integration bogey Solve all cancer and away others to hands like there are still option values on having this But you got to support a massive core infrastructure and cost structure And the question is is there a core business or not?

21:51So what do you think meta is gonna do if they just hired a head of Enterprise this week to go compete here. Oh, oh timeout. We have a guest showing up Are you guys in adjacent rooms? You have the same headboard? You guys must be in the same place We're actually in the same room and we're sharing a bet But we you know, we don't really want you to know so we're using AI to like fuzz the background a little Which I change the bed color to be different. Okay, hold on before you guys keep talking This is Adrian and Adrian introduced yourself for the people Adrian's a pilot that is my claim to Vame in the world I can fly it blade and a helicopter No, I'm a friend of the Moors and lessons for the last 20 years. That's what I am and what do you do Adrian? Why should we believe what you say today with any of your wisdom? You flies plans. I've light planes. I invest in companies. I've invested in about 100 funds 300 startups 40 unicorns and then with my other hat I'm a founder. I run a bunch of companies some that worked some that didn't but these days I mostly help companies get off the ground and kind of help incubate them

22:52Mostly an AI and deep tech. All right guys. I got to eat one forest moving in days So we're Adrian you know, we fly down to this secret conference and We run into this like a large institutional LP and I'm talking about very excitedly There's actually an LP of ours. I quite like them about how they're using AI to track their 14,000 private company positions. Instead of it. Yeah, you're like you have too many positions Adrian's like wow you invested in 14,000 companies like we'll know like through the funds were invested in 14,000 And Adrian does the math in his head and he's like yeah, I've invested in 14,000 companies to that way Classic Adrian. Yeah. Well Adrian worth wealth to have you I think people should also know you sold built one of the very first AI companies and sold it to Google back in the day So and I wrote him one of the first checks for that company and then built another one and sold it to open AI Did you write him a check for the one he sold open AI? No one wrote checks to the one he sold open AI. It was so secret Tell the information broke it. No, we just hadn't even raised yet We were going to and you were gonna all be our first calls except Sam. I was trying to

23:54Sam always detest any valuation that I give him. Sam is too cheap to invest in my company It's true. Adrian gives me like we should do this together And like Adrian I can't afford you. You're too expensive But Dave can't have marked me and Dave is a great partner. The more is pay up. Okay. We understand the premium pricing Yeah, Adrian. Who's your first check always Dave is always like your skull. I invest in people and breathe Dave and Brett are good partners. Sam is just annoying I offer to split the cost of fuel with you. This is how you pay me Adrian And Adrian doesn't even return my calls. So okay, Adrian you're in time for second What are we talking to Adrian about I didn't know he was coming I didn't know this was a drop-in invite people to the pod pod We need to talk about open AI's dev day. I think this is a good transition We are moving to our bot update of the week as a good listener of the pod You know we have been exploring the bots at various levels Sam's all in Brett is orchestrator davis building and I'm sitting here on the sidelines in or out

24:57I'm happy to report this week everyone. I went full bot you went full of news. I went full of news It's good to have you Jess get on the train of the polyagentamerous future I keep waiting for our mark ensues into call me and telling me to stop using use This is how much of using it, but wow. Why would they want you to stop? They want you to consume it even more I am melting down their data centers Dave I've convinced I've so convinced Jessica's understanding of what compute scale is as hilarious I'm like oh it just bought me an ice cream and delivered it I'm surprised there isn't a blackout across Louisiana. Yeah, that's what I'm thinking Jessica Either things there's like 12 people in the world or she thinks that like these numbers for AI spend on neo clouds Are way too small based on how much she thinks she's spending with her Insevertual instance I think you're just forgetting that the latest models like are incredibly efficient if you don't use like we all have like The souls and the light and the chemise like there's very very inexpensive models right now

25:59They're almost certainly not using the highest computation models So I don't think cost is the big issue. Okay. Well, I'm glad that I'm not personally responsible for this But also and we should mention and he's gonna come on the pod Ben Shrarran Shwarean how do you pronounce it? Of co-to joint instinct as its first cheap business officer Which finally got me on instinct because none of you schmucks invited me and he's like why aren't you on instinct? I have so many invites you didn't even ask why are we having the business officer? Let's get the product guy We can get know it too. I don't know. I just thought that's what we do we invite people on the pod So anyway guys, I want to announce a competition All these bots are trying to compete especially for the mom Brit you were right and I have decided that the first bot that can log into my kid's school software and update three kids after school plans And make sure they are synced with the google calendar all the bots can do this

27:00You have not seen these after school plans is very very complicated Muse is currently at 90% But anyone that can do this has my undying loyalty and I will award the equivalent of a millennium prize I actually love this as the AI Ben Shmarked for Jessica First of all, I don't think anyone here that's a dad should be talking right now The moms are the ones who log into the kid's software. I will hawk your product For six months if you can do this for me Jess, you don't need to that you can start a company tomorrow called the mom index that has 12 mom tasks That each model has to complete. They wanted me to do this like three years ago This is actually a way better benchmark than any of these other bullshit benchmarks Brent bells it with me. We're building the benchmark. I'll build in by the time we're done with the pod It'll be ready booking a tennis court number two Codex can do all this today. I think you're insane. I know. I think any any of these can basically do Adrian you're right, but I mean that is also the problem with this is why open AI had to rebrand codex dots

28:04Right because people don't know how to use codex and codex is for coders not for moms That's also a bad brand You need to call it dotty. That's why they did it. I know. I just haven't had time to get my dots going yet But Dave Adrian talk to me about dots dots is muse from open AI right or instinct from open AI I think that's like an unfair framing for what it's worth open AI already did this and they just rebranded it like codex I agree with you Dave. I agree So like basically everybody has the same functionality and the thing is that everybody is packaging that functionality in different ways and kind of different Experiences and basically instinct and muse realize let's just go back to the single thread Act like an assistant sort of thing whereas codex was actually a little more in the power user like you can have different threads You can control them and so because the muses and instincts of the world are taking off open AI was like Let's just go ahead and kind of copy it if you're already a pretty power codex user

29:08You're a little like what the hell did you just do right like this makes no sense for me Yeah, but most people aren't so it's still a good strategy It was already there for six months Correct, but to Jessica's point if you're not yet on the platform and remember I think the last number is like a billionish people use chat gpt and by the way billion five Have tried it and didn't stick with it which I think isn't even more insane number That's the number I really want to focus on but that means there's also a bunch of billions that are not yet on the platform And so I think it's probably a good customer acquisition strategy and by for existing users It feels a little disjointed. It's like you just kind of piled this thing on as opposed to redesigning this from the ground up for what I really needed Yeah, but they said like text messaging is coming clearly they did this in a hurry right they did this in the last two weeks They had Groff but instinct muse all in the last month guys I can't use Amazon on muse so goodbye Amazon. That's how loyal I am. This is what we were talking about last week It's 1982 the Macintosh hasn't been invented yet

30:08Nobody has figured out how to make AI agents useful for the every person global scale It's like we're still not even close. I agree with what David's saying except Dave you forgot to insert your open claw For reference in there so can you just try again and get it in so that the audience knows you're affiliated with open claw All of these are built on open claw all of them. It's true. I actually I give you our time. I kind of agree with you Dave I think you're getting to the question that I think really matters right now, which is not the UI It's what's the moat what's the defensibility? We're all like hopping into Groffbot and hopping into muse and hopping into instinct, etc So Vince tank just worth a trillion dollars or whatever it's worth right now. I want to know what's the moat What about network effects? What is the first one to talk to the others the winner? This is what instincts doing and I started doing it this week. So your instinct can talk to someone else's instinct I'm sorry, Brit, but instinct has absolutely no advantage Okay, well, let me just tell you if the cost of writing software is going to zero

31:10There is no mo on those integrations as long as those integrations are done via APIs and not done via BD deals Amen brother I think that what you're finding is that there's gonna be winner take all I should say winner take some There's gonna be a few big winners because the setup cost for the user starts to be pretty incredible Like I don't want to go try the latest thing because I've got all my setup already So Adrian, I agree. This is an important question about the moat. Brit, what are your thoughts? My point is I was intrigued by instinct letting your instinct talk to other people's instincts And I am in a bunch of women's private WhatsApp groups A bunch of my mom and female entrepreneur friends are like obsessed with instinct because of the coordination vector And back to Jessica's point I think me and jasser the voice of sort of the normal part of America you boys like live in your little bubble So normal Okay, so what they love about it is like they can just like off-lay all the stuff and like People are coordinating with other moms were played aids and whatever it is they need to coordinate about that's really annoying

32:15The problem is I've started using this now with a bunch of people and their instincts and my instinct and they're off talking to each other And now I'm not talking to these people anymore And I think this has like serious social repercussions of like the agent to agent future keeps going this way Like I did it with Dave and then I didn't even text with Dave for a whole day I was just like Dave text my agent. I was never more offended Brit started using her instinct to try to coordinate with me. So I we're coordinating date night I immediately came back and had it start coordinating far more interesting things with her Some some of my best friends in the world I haven't seen for like nine months, but I talk all the time through facetime right like why is facetime okay But my instinct agent is not okay It's just that the origin window has yet to move into this world where we're used to communicating via agents We went from a communicator in person now. We communicate via Instagram posts. You might be right No, there's no humanity in it. I'm losing actual context of humans Facetime is human to human reducing the barrier between is Instagram the same is tick-tock the same like is text met

33:21That's the thing. I know where this is going. I'll cut to the chase. I'm glad you have all the answers No, but on this I just feel it very deeply I am gonna cut my screen time by 20% By using these bots. So we are just the middle is fallen out I'm already on track right does I can track it? They're gonna be parts of things that are hyper automated hyper efficiency hyper productivity boosting But we have to balance this out with like transcendental medication meditation I would like to make three short points Point one my favorite thing with Jessica has innovated is she was like oh Let's just give the bots our printer and I can just print the shit we need to look at screen brilliant Right so like now our printer is just like humming with like here come the daily reports actually fabulous great idea Thank you point to Adrian there's no fucking moat to switching these things we've been talking about this in the pod forever I literally have like a GitHub repo on a bunch of databases and a new one comes online is feed it my back on I all updated. It's costless to switch it cost me enough when muse came online. I thought was very funny

34:26I literally just fed it everything that clawed at built for me and like there is no switching cost right and there never will be because That's the whole point is it no switching costs to these types of things That's not entirely true that there never will be okay, so the never will be so last part Here's the crazy pet then this is my third point to your point. I think you're a hundred percent right about this The only way that ends up being locked in somehow right is through bd Which is hilarious because it basically means that what's gonna end up being is the world first all the sudden all the engineers got overpaid Right now we're in the place where all of effectively the political operatives are getting overpaid to try to deal with Washington And ultimately it's gonna be like all the business teams getting overpaid to seal these deals It's basically this is like race it might work for the opening months of figuring this out But it's got to sort itself out whoever can clock in Walmart and Amazon exclusivity for a hundred good gillian dollars It'll be the same as the frontier models the Microsoft open AI Marriage lasted what six months 12 months of exclusivity this time that maybe they'll define a g. I better

35:31I've just defined a g. I. Yeah, I think there's also vertical integration right like if you're the iPhone You could sit there and be like I'm listening all day. I'm collecting notes But I'm just gonna not hand that out to someone else apple and google should win this I don't know why apple and google are not winning this yet. It's crazy to me guys. I'm sorry apple is so bad While I have muse doing like the most insane things an instinct doing the most insane things I was calling my chief design officer Clark Miller and I sold Syria to call Clark Miller and it couldn't And I'm like are you fucking kidding me Guys, that's why it's gonna be so funny when they win like that when the idiot wins That's gonna be the funniest fucking outcome There's no winning here There will not be one agent to rule them all The future is poly agentamorous everyone is going to talk to every single one of these agents Instinct did one billion in gmv and 50% of it is travel It is super clear that instinct is the new kayak. Why do you say that?

36:33Because it's like very obvious in the data just because they did a billion dollars in gmv That's actually not that my plane tickets. I understand But like door dashes launching their agent today like they're gonna be the door dash agent Okay, guys Raise your hand if you think 18 months from now instinct is an independent company They hope it's not I mean, this is the moment for them none of us think gonna be in the company, right? Very expensive my other thought Jess is back to what you were talking about which is I've been thinking about this a lot this week Maybe it is not the end of times Maybe it's the beginning of times And the reason why is that for the last 30 years whatever since the late 70s Computers came on the scene and people spent the majority of their days Sitting in buildings looking at glowing rectangles fidgeting with computers to try to get them to do the things that they wanted them to do and most of the output has been not that great

37:34And we've all been like trying to fidget with these things to get them to do amazing things for a long time And it didn't really produce like that much interesting cultural content It didn't really produce the greatest architecture We're sort of at the end of that era and I actually think it's quite exciting that we all can just speak English to these things now and be creative And what movie do people reference the most as like the future that they want to live in the movie her they want to live in that That is like a very cynical movie people talk about how much they want to live in a Home where there's no screens the whole point that guy's so lonely I understand what happens in the end, but when people reference the guys home and how he interacts with the computer People really like I think want the screens out of their life They want more offline experiences. They want to connect with their friends And so the optimist take here is the one that Brit is saying which is that like

38:37Maybe these things yeah, you don't doing the logistics over text with your friends anymore But maybe you're actually hanging out with your friends a lot more because of the these new computers I have like almost the exact opposite thesis which is what I think of as like the disembodiment of humans We keep saying hey the tech socks. We don't like this social. We don't like these agents whatever it is Error go what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna go back and retreat into the real world But let me give you an example when I was a kid I grew up in the US. I had like a thick accent I was like kind of like not the most attractive kid. I didn't feel like I fit in in normal. Now you're a stunning adult Yeah, now I'm a stunning adult now I'm on that At nights this is a no peptide episode Okay, so the point is I would go to the internet because I felt like it was more genuine I could be as tall as I wanted to be I could be as skinny as I wanted to be I could have no accent I could do whatever I want I think that what happens is us technology gets Gula we use it to express ourselves the problem right now is that we're in this kind of local

39:42Optima where it's like the first version of technology the first version of your agent interacting with my agent Feels dystopian feels shitty, but two things change over time The first is products only get adopted if consumers want to adopt them Error go products have to be better and better At kind of tricking you into believing this is what you want and then the second thing that happens is We just become more accustomed to these things we become more used to them and so that over-ten window changes If you fathom if I told you to imagine the year 2026 in the year 1950 Be like we're all gonna be walking around staring at four-inch pieces of glass You'd be like that's fucking insane nobody would ever do that except that's literally what we do all day And we feel empowered by doing it. We love doing it, right? And so I just think we're gonna end up in a world where these agents end up being more her like than instant like or whatever That looks like but I think that we're going to continue to invest more and more of our lives into staring at screens as I'm doing right now I feel like I'm interacting with four of my really close friends

40:42Yet I'm staring at a 12-inch piece of glass. It's just firing off random pixels in front of I think human agency is a key thing here I think you can actually like live the life you want to live I think it's better to focus on computers Computers are incredibly difficult to use and they waste so much time Can I for once they think you're everyone's right? Here's a reality. Let's tell everything we actually agree on That this technology should help people live the lives they want to live, right? I mean, that's like the key baseline Here's the thing just your attractive successful rich Person we just have flirting with her on the air. I agree. I agree and so the world is your oyster So you're gonna say hey look the digital stuff. I don't need it. I want to be in the real world Just take it but Adrian is a terrible Accent in child and like Adrian wants to find his people online which aren't physically located to them Right, he like he wants to be really into some into he wants to find his people that might not be possible He might have a travel to them and the screen will like and the bring him to them

41:45So I just think it's like everyone's gonna like live the best life they can and like the real problem is that Is the economy and the world is getting so split between the extreme halves and halves knots and globally the halves are Living more and more of the same life and it's awesome and everyone else is getting real mad right about that split That's I think the big story and a lot of this stuff and this isn't to overlook the like potentially addictive natures and the weird like that is all really important But I think as someone who Bruns a business like all I have the privilege to decide how I use my time and it's very exciting because I can Accomplish so much. Are you acknowledging your privilege? Do you have a land acknowledgement while you're at it? No, I've got none of those But I do worry about there's so many ways that it can suck in and exploit and all that kind of stuff But I really think I mean I also hit every goal I achieve obviously But my screen time will be dramatically reduced this year well especially because apps are going away Literally this thing door dash launch today where you can just text message what you want from door dash is kind of amazing

42:48It's like the first step and what's about to happen well But I use instinct and muse to text message door dash too fine either way You don't need the apps anymore unless you're Sam and you're on tiktok all day long scrolling scrolling scrolling But if so then we're sitting in this like local blip because it's like you got to project out if you project out N years like almost certainly we all have Neuralinks or equivalents like plugged into our brain like we're only getting more and more connected and online We're not certainly like moving away from that world anytime soon. Yeah, I think it's a barbell really go live on a farm Dave I do live on a ranch part of the year Then give me your 25 little i-max that are chilling back there Give me a way way more than 25 You 100 Mac minis give me your damn 19 phones that are like lying around your house and then go tell you want to live on a farm No, no, I only have one the upshot here and I'm gonna bring this segment to a close and then we'll we'll have some parting thoughts right as as always The technology doesn't have agency the humans have agency over the technology and that I believe will

43:51I'm not as convinced as you on that I think actually that you have the perception of agency like I wake up in the morning And I'm like what should I eat door dash tells me what to eat? I where do I go the Google Maps lady tells me turn left turn right I want to mate with somebody and and the hinge app tells me who to mate with like like the trick is the technology has taken over Adrian we need to get you married and with children get Adrian to Estlund the trick is the technology has convinced you That you are the one in control. I could not disagree with this more. I totally disagree I love being a peacemaker check this out Can we agree that being disconnected is the ultimate status symbol at this point? Yes Absolutely like yes as long as you have money and you're not unemployed like it's kind of like how rich people like to go into the woods and Pretends they're self-sufficient and like when they have the staff hiding in the back like the idea of disconnection in the real world Is like the ultimate luxury? Do you know what the phrase that people are uses offline is the new luxury? Yeah, so you are a luxury venture firm

44:52But the basic point is like that is the status symbol as I don't need to be online all the time I agree. I do feel like I need to like defend how incredibly hard I've been working this last week Okay, no if the status symbol is to not be offline if you check or not be online if you genuinely believe that Then why the hell is everybody like why don't I fucking have starlink on my plane right now? Right like is this bullshit that the reality is we love to say this but none of us are actually doing they want the option to be online I think there's some trees to that Adrian. That's a funny way of saying you're right Sam I know those words don't exist in your vocabulary Thank you. Oh, you can come back every week agent Okay guys, it's his wild. I just buy the next time we convene How many more agents are gonna be like in the world like so many no I just mean like how many more announcements Dave knows the answer to this question letting them answer it like seven day week over week agent There are millions of open clause every week starting. I mean, it's like it's crazy and uses and dots and

45:57Instincts. I do think the way to think about this and you guys didn't believe me two weeks ago three weeks ago Is that every single app on your phones becoming an agent? It's going to happen extremely quickly I just don't know what happens to them as businesses then because I agree with you Sam some of these things do very real things like door dash is a very serious marketplace business that coordinates enormous amounts of commerce So I guess the world is like the software world, but it's funny I actually have more apps on my phone I use now than ever before personally, but here's the funny thing my home screen now is almost entirely apps I've made for myself and I love them Sam, I think this is the other thing that's happening and we've been saying this for a couple of years actually, but I think Astra was maybe the crossover point where You're going to see this happen as well that like there's just going to be a proliferation of personal apps People build for themselves and their friends and it's throw away. It doesn't matter You can build it in one hour I think it's going to be actually kind of cool It's kind of like that I literally now I'm using apps more than ever before and they're all apps I built for myself

46:58And then hilariously with test flight limits I actually have users on some of them now, right? We're just like oh I want this too and I'm like that's cool And then I sent one to Dave which is a sick app and Dave's like oh do you have access? I'm like yeah, so does make your own by the way do not reveal what it is But Britain Dave you have a test flight if you haven't received data I don't want to use sam's app. He's going to store all my data. No my app. My app. Oh, oh, oh Hey, the way Jess I heard about this app and I'm a little unhappy that I'm not on the test flight So if we could solve that today that'd be great. You can be on the test flight right now. Let's all burn out This is I'm an equal opportunity You just have to tell me it's perfect, you know, and then you can have it. You are perfect Oh, wait only sam's allowed to hit on you my bad. No, anyone's really so open season No, Dave hits on her all the time now. It's weird, but it's fine. Dave just awkwardly comments on her apps like what's every three weeks This is true. I've got Pilates later to stay motivated. So thank you. Anything to keep this podcast interesting I would like to make one recommendation Does everyone ready for book recommendation? Is it about tennis?

48:00I just recommended a book on stage. No, not original. Everyone's recommending roll the curls roll the calls by Ari Emmanuel Guys this book is good and it's not just good because Ari is Ari and swears a lot But it is honestly One of the best books about drive ambition knowing yourself. It is hilarious and it was written by the same guy who wrote open right? It was same ghost writer as open and shoot-dog. Oh, I love shoot-dog The top three I tweeted. This is the cannon. Oh, these aren't actually written by these people. They're written by ghost writers Yeah, but that's how awesome I'm gonna use to it, but specifically J.R. But they are I just have not read a book in a while where I'm like trying not to read it too fast. I'm savoring it. So I highly recommend it Okay, what's the name again roll the calls. I reposted the fin commercials we shot 10 years ago They worked perfectly in 2026. It's like a while like I look at them like all the things we had a private asset store

49:01Vault for your credit card and all your things and the use cases are great But my opening one in it anecdotally is me being like hey fin the book shoot-dogs amazing Please set it to the following six people Thanks, right? And like that was my opening use of agent anecdote from a decade ago So the world is a small place that Vesselera did the videos my brother. He did they're beautiful They're really great. Does anyone have a suggestion and do not say Taylor Swift's new songs because I will not endorse them as a pop culture Well the only one I would endorse is Babylon But we can skip that if you'd like Well, did you know Miley is only known by as an Miley now? She dropped the Cyrus. Didn't know that Yep, I feel like Elon should drop the musk. I think it's just Elon from here on out. I mean he's that's been Yeah, he's just Elon. Well who else needs to drop their last name? Who do you think is done with their last name? When do you become the first letter of your name is the real question? Well, you become principal prince became a symbol. I aspire to be D Here's the thing I was at the US open and it was very funny because they're doing like the

50:02The court women's quarters and they're doing the fancam It was very fine to see who got a when they like put your on a celebrity's like who got a full name like Michelle Obama versus who gets like one name like Rizza and you're like okay, so like there's like some hierarchy of like how many names do you need to describe? A human the show would have been enough. It was out of respect that they added Obama No, you have to go into parental naming strategy. Dave and I thought about this with our third child because you can't pick a generic name It has to be a name that can live on its own so that one day if he or she has made it they can just go by that first names Unless the robots take over and then you want them to hide and you want them to be like Bob Smith Fair Adrian, what is your parting word? Yeah, give us a parting word. What do we not talk about in Doth on this pot? I think that the thing that we keep circling around that just sits in my mind is The AI revolution is happening so fast We end up going through these eras where we're creating an enormous amount of value like we went all of a sudden We didn't have agents now we all have agents we create an enormous amount of value

51:05But then because AI is this kind of cool commodity that can go build anything as soon as the idea comes out Everyone does it and we collapse that value like immediately and so what I keep asking myself is at the limit Where do you want to build those real businesses? What's going to survive in this? This is the point that AI is communist sure I would have said commoditized, but you can say communist as well It's also the dev story of the week, which we didn't talk about at the limit You can have infrastructure. Okay, that's quite interesting right because like who cares if everybody has the models If they don't have the compute to run it So having the infrastructure and that can be energy GPUs etc. Seems really interesting The other thing is having proprietary data that obviously seems very interesting right If you're the Jane street of the world and you say I'm just not going to give anyone else my data that I'm training on that Seems interesting and then the third one that we don't talk enough about is the algorithms and right now We still live in a world where these algorithms are kind of a commodity if someone has it within a week somebody else has it Jev comes out everyone else backs out the engineering of Jev within 48 hours. What's Jev

52:06Just to make sure it understands it's an LLM that's done as a single pass classifier So it's basically instead of trying to predict the next token It just tries to predict one thing which is what is your client? Is this a stop sign? Is this not a stop sign? Is this fraud? And it's a great idea and it works really well and within 24 hours literally everyone copied it and the people who made it They will get will see no value did it get funded? I thought they did a hundred million in revenue in seven days It also I think it raised a big ramp But again ignore Jev for a sec what happens is we go into this world of AI for science right like where do you make the money? You can make the money on producing the physical world products Hey, we all got this thing But I just built the damn vaccine and what you're buying is the damn vaccine that you're stabbing in your body Right like that's an interesting way to monetize these sorts things Another is to just move to a world where we're just far more secretive about algorithms as opposed to right now where we do the Classic tech community thing of employees move around all the time they share everything etc Right this is but for what it's worth though this is like the other really negative dark future of AI

53:07Which is kind of like the middle ages version where everyone effectively build a castle at a mode and hordes We end up in the middle ages to point out with these like sovereigns you that are like completely you can't open it You can't edit it you have a car it's a black box itself to structs if you touch anything Like it becomes really testy because there's no other way to create modes right? It's just a pendulum So far that future is not here though We're decidedly in the open version of this right now For that to happen everything needs to crash that right everyone's like pretending they're getting paid on the open If it all crashes out if people get super horny I mean this is what's happening with networks like I actually think one of the ironies of AI Is it very hard to take cold pitches as a VC now because they're inundated with them It's too easy to generate reasonable incredible things. So what do you do you lock down and only talks to your friend? Well, this has happened to the news industry, right? Yeah, this is a real thing and so this whole thing is like there's this irony that like when you play it to the limit should create a very closed stratified society and companies that hoard data and people that don't want to talk to each other and

54:10API you can't penetrate that just give you yes-no answers with no context This can't be what's gonna happen. It's too fear or too close too negative It's just not how humans are by default This is the thing that I think is interesting is in the spectrum of negativity This might might like scoffing at the 10% kill all people thing Maybe there is some percent of shoot is also aliens might show up and Astro might hit us But this is at least far more practical and a real problem to talk about and deal with in the spectrum of how I plays out So if you want to talk about negativity well, I agree it's very negative It's a valid conversation. I think less negative than people who say like oh, well, we can't care about anything in the middle or anything Because all that matters is like the edge case that we can't predict right? Oh, sure. Yeah, I agree with that Okay, one more question. Sammy you be home for dinner. I defrosted some of those cows that I shipped from that place His instinct can tell your instinct if you will I'll be in the air an hour looks like he's in a hotel room Adrian's got a plane though. It depends on fast Adrian flies I'd like to not know the details of that but okay. Well dear friends. We did it. That must mean they are in California

55:17There's only one secret conference going on in California right now. So this is pretty easy to figure out I actually don't think you know where we are But you might let's not taunt each other at secret conferences guys. I'm going to a fun one this weekend too Actually, I think I can talk about it. I just like Kevin Conn makes fun of me because I swear I don't got a conferences But I clearly got a conferences Sam your your shirts are one living name badge. Let's just say that. Okay, dear friends. We did it Adrian You can come back to not anytime little notice Well, Adrian now has the link that we do this on so we can't stop him halfway through the episode I like the idea of just giving our friends the link because it's always the same and they just they show up That's actually really fun as long as long as I meet my quota of complimenting jess's abs and giving one dig to Sam and Dave Then I think I'm invited back. What do I get? What am I doing Adrian? Where's my compliment? I'm offended you're not hitting on Brit great did not invite me to her big birthday bash or wait or did you invite me but I didn't come Oh my god. Oh my god

56:18Whatever it is I didn't go but I'm still mad about that because I saw the photos after so we're not friends That was a big invite list so you really didn't get invited he'd wasn't And he did not come he forgot what color he was and he didn't know what to wear that that's right I didn't know in enough pink. I mean we're invited like everyone she knew to Not okay, we're not gonna go check because if I wasn't invited Brit I'm mad at you and if I was invited I'm still mad at you You were totally invited just know which grudges you're holding it all times and with that friends We thank you for listening and we do what means a lot we love the feedback and we'll see you back here next week for another episode of more or less Bye If you enjoyed this show, please leave us a virtual high five by rating it and reviewing it on Apple podcast Spotify YouTube or wherever you get your podcast Find more information about each episode in the show notes and follow us on social media by searching for at more or less

57:19at Dave Moran at lesson at J lesson and that's for me. I'm at Brit See you guys next time