Nima R. Alkhorshid: From Toppling Tehran to Begging the Streets – Bessent's Reversal as Hormuz Burns

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3:11Operation Economic Outcast on Iran. And here is what is said. Isn't necessarily to collapse regime could happen. Maybe the people will rise up 100% inflation, lines, the military not being paid. The central banker was in panic last week. But as President Trump said, he believes the reason the MOU failed, the Iranians were not ready to make a deal. We're going to make sure that they want to make it the op. Yeah, you heard what he said. Basically, he's talking about the collapsing. He said not necessarily collapsing Iran, but trying to put pressure on Iran in economy, somehow hoping that Iranian would come, Iranian people would come out and topple the regime, the so-called regime inside Iran. This is basically the same strategy that they had before the war started. What has changed so far? I think what's important when it comes to the battlefield is the latest attacks,

4:12American attacks on Iranians. The question is why did the United States start attacking Iran in the Persian Gulf? They said that there is no mine in the strait. No, because the mines were removed as Donald Trump mentioned in one of his tweets. There is no mine. If Iran decides to put them back in the strait of Hormuz, where can it hit them hard? Then you see the initial attacks on the part of the United States, basically mentioning that Iran is trying to mine the strait of Hormuz. So they avoided that by that attack. So the Iran, the attack was here in the Lodak Island, the initial attack. Let me just bring this up. It was somewhere here, this little point here. And then the Iranian response was immediately in the less than two hours

5:13Iran responded to American attacks. And then you see somehow war widening. We had Donald Trump came out and said, we're going to hit them hard. Then later on, because the initial attack, Iranian attack, was somehow all of these military bases or missile underground missile cities were here were used to attack targets in Jordan. So they said all those missiles, 12 missiles were fired at Jordan in the initial attack. And after American attack on this point here and this island, Lodak Island. So the day after Donald Trump said, I'm going to hit them hard. I'm going to do something else. And they didn't do it the night after. Then you see the day after you see at 12 p.m., the United States decided to attack 12 p.m. Eastern time.

6:14They attacked basically all this area in the southern part of Iran. And while attacking this area, Donald Trump was posting that we are attacking asm, tweeting this, we are attacking Iranians, we are hitting them hard. And if they respond, there would be no Iran on the map. So we're going to remove their existence. As we expected, Iran responded the same way. And again, Iran started attacking using the same area that they used before to fire missiles at Jordan. This time was different because the first attack with those 12 in the first response from Iran after in the aftermath of the attack on Lodak Island. Iran used 12 missiles hitting the targets in Jordan. And for those 12 missiles, the United States has used something like 80s, 380 to 90 interceptors to intercept those missiles coming to Jordan.

7:14But after all, they were successful somehow in the way that they hit the targets in Jordan. And the footage came out and we saw that happening, the explosion happening, impacts in Jordan. Then the United States decided to attack Iran again, as I've mentioned. But the latest Iranian attack on Jordan was they used more than 20 missiles. And I've seen no footage in Jordan. No interceptor was fired to intercept these missiles coming to Jordan. And in the first day, they tried to remove some of those weapons, maybe, you know, fire jets or refueling tankers from Jordan, moving them to Israel and then preparing for the attack on Iran because they knew that Iran would attack Jordan again. The other point is during the attack Iran has perceived that the United States is, or Iran, you know, Iran was under attack from the Persian Gulf again.

8:22And not that they used Bahrain and Kuwait, these two areas, Kuwait and Bahrain here, these two points to attack Iran. And the other point was that UAE was used radars or some sort of cooperation between UAE and the United States during the attacks. This is the perception on the part of Iranians because as we talk, we've learned that Iran has attacked using drones. It in the targets, all those radars in UAE. And you remember when Iran in the latest attacks before the attack on the Lodic island, Iran was had some sort of agreement with the government in the UAE, not to attack them. But this new cycle or this new round of attacks, you see that is bringing the suffering to the UAE as well.

9:22It's not about the UAE, but they hit the radars that are providing some sort of, you know, help to American attacks on Iran. This is what's going on. The other point that was important for Iranian people, and it was mentioned by Iranian foreign ministry that a ceremony wedding ceremony was attacked here in this area. And 50 people were injured and at least four of them were killed in this attack, American attack. And the other point is an Iranian attack on Kuwait and Jordan caused some sort of casualties. We don't know. Iranian side says that they have killed, you know, American soldiers into in Kuwait and in Jordan. And this is what Iran is talking about. So the question is right now, what is the next plan on the part of the United States?

10:24Are they going to get back for this state for that war? What are the capabilities in the region? It seems that, you know, they use Kuwait and Bahrain and we know the government in these two countries are so weak, they cannot, you know, if the United States decides to use the basis there, the American basis there, they have nothing to, you know, they can. They cannot resist or they cannot say to the United States, you cannot use it. They're not that powerful to go against the decision on the part of Donald Trump. This is one of the major issues, but Iran doesn't care about it. Iran sees Kuwait is participating, Bahrain is cooperating. So they're going to head back at these two countries. And the other point is that the interceptors, the issue of the interceptors show that the United States somehow decided not to defend. Maybe they have removed some of the weapons from Jordan, as I've mentioned before to Israel, that they didn't need to intercept those missiles.

11:27The deeper problem is that the United States is short of interceptors. And it's not they're not going to replace them anytime soon. Getting back to the war, it means that they're going to get back, you know, the war going to get to Israel. What are the capabilities of Israel to defend itself? I don't see that much happening in Israel as well, because Israel has its own problems in the southern part of Lebanon. Last night we've learned that for the first time, you see the drones being activated in a significant manner in the southern part of Lebanon. I'm talking about Hezbollah's drones and the drones they have been used to hit soldiers, you know, Israeli soldiers soldiers in the southern part of Lebanon. This is part of the issue. The other point which was important in my opinion, it was the meeting or the summit in, I don't know if you can call it summit, but it was some sort of meeting in Istanbul between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey.

12:31Turkey, Turkey was in the SEO summit as well. But before getting there, when they came out of that meeting, the foreign minister of Turkey said the problem is Benjamin Netanyahu, the problem is Israel and their behavior in the region. Basically, he mentioned the occupation of, he didn't mention the name of them, but said across the region, Israel behavior across the region, occupation. And he was mentioning Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. He mentioned Palestinian people are suffering a lot. The Kataric government came out yesterday which was important as well. They said that Israel is using this escalation between Iran and the United States to bomb across the region, to bomb each and every country across the region. This is the perception that is growing into the region. It doesn't matter the United States is using Kuwait or Bahrain because this country, as I mentioned before, they're so weak they cannot say no, you cannot come here or use the United States used the basis in Europe.

13:40And when you remember when the government in Spain said you cannot use the base in Spain to attack Iran, don't know basically say who cares about what you're talking about if we decide to use, we're going to use this is something this is the behavior just imagine and Bahrain is not Spain Bahrain or Kuwait is not Spain. This little countries they don't have that much of military power or economic power or maybe geopolitical power. So the United States can decide and it's about Iran how Iran is removing the United States from the region is forcing the United States from the region forcing out toward the western part of the West Asia going to Jordan going to Israel. And my understanding is the war going to get to Israel sooner or later because Israel today the foreign minister, the defense minister of Israel said that we are preparing for Iranian attack.

14:45Why is that? What are the signs that Iran is going to attack them last night dimension that has realized using drones to attack northern part of Israel. And they said if has ball attacks Israel we're going to hit Beirut. Beirut is the red line of the Iranian government they said that over and over. Iran the head of Iran National Security Council said that the head of Iranian parliament said that. Beirut and Dahia in in you know in the southern part of Beirut an area called Dahia these are important locations for you and that's the red line you remember last time they attacked this area Iran attacked the northern part of Israel. This is the calculation on the part of Israel is it all depends on what Benjamin Netanyahu is thinking of today. If he feels that the continuation of starting the war would benefit him with the upcoming election in Israel he's going to do that he's going to start that he can make an excuse that has well as attacking Israel we're going to respond we're going to hit some location some parts of Beirut maybe in Dahia and Iran is going to respond to that.

15:59That is the moment that everything is going to get out of the hand of the United States because so far what was the policy of the Trump administration. Israel is not part of the game. Israel is mostly you know attacking Syria attacking Lebanon attacking Gaza but they're not part of the war between Iran and the United States. They literally let Israel being on the margins of the war being involved in its own policies its own occupation so they're fighting Iran but the problem for the United States is Iran has forced the United States out of the Persian Gulf. They're in Jordan they're in Israel the other point that could help them would be the Ego Garcia and the Ego Garcia is far away from the Persian Gulf is some three thousand seven hundred more than two thousand seven hundred kilometers away from the from the Persian Gulf.

17:01This is part of the issue then you can understand what Scott best and is talking about. He basically mentioned that the only solution right now for the United States is an economic pressure to strangle the Iranian economy to force Iranian people to go out because of the difficulties they're facing because of the inflation because of you know whatever they have in their mind. And the problem is they fail to understand that Iranians know this is the plan on the part of the Trump administration. They may under depression you may see some sort of little you know groups coming out and protesting or something of that sort which I doubt that that would happen but let's assume the worst case scenario that happened for Iranians. This is the worst case scenario but it's not that's not going to be that significant for Iran to back down on its position in the trade of foremost the whole case the whole war has changed its objective and the objective is to open up the straight up for most and the mining they said there is no mining the straight up for most in the last three four days you see at least three super tankers were hit in the straight up for most by these mines.

18:22So it's it was all made up by Donald Trump that he removed everything everything is okay the straight is open and he has no problem with the oil and he's trying to improve that but that didn't happen because the economic pressure that he's supposed to put on Iran. He needs other countries to cooperate with him the most important country is China. If China cooperate with the United States it means that China is one of the most important partners economic partners that we're on. And but what they fail to understand is something deeper than that is going on something deeper is going on in the SEO summit would be in the break summit in India what is that I think let me just bring up the map of of the Belt and Road initiatives China has a bigger plan in its mind China's plan is not going to be a big deal.

19:25It's not really is not about you know military operation is not about attacking it's about expanding its its influence or its economy by new partnerships in the region look at this map this is the Belt and Road initiative it goes here it goes into Iran it goes to the central Asia then you see the two routes between Iran and between Iran and China. One of them comes here you see one of them comes here and passes through Iran and the other one from China to Pakistan then to Iran. The problem for Donald Trump is that Pakistan said we're not going to be part of the sanctions we don't consider these sanctions you know we are basically following the the UN charter if the UN accepted since these sanctions are not coming from the UN we're not going to buy it by these sanctions China said that Russia would not cooperate with the United States Russia is here.

20:37And you may understand that Russia is so important because Iran has the connection between Iran and Russia through the Caspian sea. Here is important and. Who else going to cooperate with the United States Iran doesn't have that much of relationship with Saudi Arabia or with any of these GCC countries that the United States would finally put pressure on them would try to force them not to cooperate to help Iran is. This is the problem that Donald Trump is facing but look at this map you see how China is you know planning for the future it's about all this area it goes to the you know Eurasian land mass it goes here to Russia it comes here to the this part this chunk this whole area it's you know you have the maritime routes. Coming to Ethiopia you remember Ethiopia was part of is part of bricks and we were asking why what is the importance of Ethiopia Ethiopia is the hub it's going to be one of the main locations that China would connect with Africa comes to he comes comes to this part so this is all plan based on they have a long run strategy on the part of China in the United States.

22:04In that strategy they don't want to go against Iran or to go against Russia. So the United States and in the G20 they when it came to the safe and you know they said they had a paragraph for the straight of for most and a safe and free passage through the straight of for most that paragraph was rejected by the Chinese government. They said we're not going to accept that we're not going to be part of this so the United States has failed to convince China to help him to help it to put pressure on Iran the northern part of Iran is open. GCC countries are so much damage the economy was so much damage during the war they hurt a lot during the war so so the Arabia is asking for eight trillion dollars in loan from international banks eight trillion dollars just imagine a country wealthy country in the Persian Gulf.

23:12It took how many it's a five months six months of war and they're suffering a lot UA and quate are asking for money the short of cash. This is the economy this is the sort of economy you see in the Persian Gulf they're basically dependent on the export of oil export of oil right now is too much dependent on the straight of for most and in their eyes. And the straight of for most here let me go back today. Mod dot com is changing the way people battle excessive fatigue ever hit a wall in the middle of the day and the third coffee just doesn't do it anymore. Here's what's actually happening coffee only briefly blocks a denocene the chemical that tires you out when it stops from the end of the day. When it stops working your system is flooded and you crash.

24:14Medaphine is a prescription treatment that works in a completely different way. Medaphine works by stimulating multiple receptors in the brain associated with wakefulness including dopamine, serotonin, nor epinephrine, histamine, glutamate and erexin. It's a more complete solution that gives you 10 to 12 hours of steady focus and energy. To learn more go to mod dot com fill out your intake form meet with a license provider and if approved mod alert ship straight to your door go to mod dot com to get started that's m o d dot com. In a world where AI is changing every role in every industry knowing who actually has deep expertise matters more than ever. Upwork connects you with the highly skilled freelance professionals with proven track records so you can hire with confidence. Upwork gives your business fast access to highly skilled specialists with deep expertise so you can fill critical skill gaps, launch projects faster and scale support up or down without committing to full time head count.

25:18With business plus you can access the top 1% of talent on upwork AI powered shortlisting delivers a curated short list of top freelancers match to your goals in under six hours. No endless searching required thousands of growing businesses already trust upwork to hire highly skilled freelance professionals for everything from one off projects to ongoing support. It's free to sign up and posting a job is easy visit upwork dot com right now and post your job for free. That is upwork dot com to connect with top talent ready to help your business grow that's you P W O R K dot com upwork dot com. Yeah. This is straight up for most. The problem is they have two pipelines one of them in for jr one of them in so the Arabia these two pipelines are not working anymore. So for the United States is to decide what do they want to do the continuation of the war.

26:23I don't see that happening anytime soon maybe the United States is planning for the aftermath of the midterm elections in the United States. It doesn't mean that they can produce enough ammunition enough defensive and offensive muscles to get back to the war. This is the complexity of the issue what is the solution for that the only solution remains for the Trump administration is the MOU getting back to the MOU which don't Trump himself said he doesn't he said that he doesn't care about the MOU what's MOU and he doesn't need MOU. So I my understanding is he's getting back is getting back is he wants to continue the state for that war based on the ammunition based on the numbers under part they see the math of what's what they're doing. So if that's affordable they're going to continue attacking Iran. And it's not a it's not a grand strategy on the part of Donald Trump we have to understand that there is no grand strategy under the Trump administration.

27:32Because if he wants to if he had a grand strategy you don't see that you know signing MOU and then attacking the violating then attacking Iran what was the meaning of MOU nothing. Because he's this is all manipulation it's a sign of the MOU was some sort of manipulation in their eyes they thought that this this you know the document would somehow convince Iran to open up the straight up for most the way that the United States wanted it to be free free and open. So they're trying to use in the you know in the last four days we've learned that the United States is using F 35 in the straight up for most to patrol to help those vessels those tankers in the southern part of the straight to pass through the straight that didn't happen again. So Iran has shown that they're not going to back down the government in Iran has shown the other point when it comes to the SEO summit which is so important in my opinion the SEO summit is Iranian going talking with Chinese.

28:44Look at the pictures or footage out of the SEO summit you see how these countries are talking to each other on the sideline the meeting bilateral meetings in my opinion or we're so important between Iran and pool. And they're basically said we're with you and we're going to continue the cooperation with Iran. The Iran and China they talk we had the Iran Foreign Minister talking with the Chinese Foreign Minister and you see the picture you see the so close talking and I assume one of the main major issues was the case of the West Asia how to deal with that. But China is not going to win China is not going to get anything out of the defeat of Iran in the West Asia. China wants Iran to win China wants Russia to win. And at the same time the grand strategy is China itself is not Iran is not Russia but Russia and Iran are two important partners of China for the Belt and Road Initiative as you saw in that map.

29:55These two countries are so important these are the two stable countries two civilizations so much important these routes that China has defined again or they're trying to make it again Belt and Road Initiative this is a huge you know historic route that was you know that connected China to Iran and going to the West Asia. But they're reviving that those routes the system to know that is happening in the West Asia. The only problem they have today is India they don't know what is India whose India India tried Modi had two meetings if I'm not mistaken he had a meeting with Russian president whom in which Russia was Russia wants to Russia. But India is a is an important you know partner economic partner of Russia they have been you know buying Russian oil since the war in Ukraine started you remember Joe Biden gave them some sort of permission to buy Russian oil even with the sanctions happening on Russia they gave some sort of exemption to India to import Russian oil.

31:12So India has no other choice than Russia the only country that can provide stability when it comes to the energy and security to India is Russia which was by the way was the case for Germany but German government has decided to go against Russia and they have lost that pipeline or they have it but they don't want to connect it to they don't want to receive anything from Russia for the time being. And as you know the tensions are boiling in Europe as well with the new attacks they say the drone attack from Russia is coming to life sick and the German government has come to a conclusion that it was Russia behind that drone attack and after all nothing was hit in Germany I don't know what why are they so sensitive about it if Russia wanted to attack Germany do you think that they want to send a drone there just to just to send some sort of sign to Germany. And Russia said they you know we've heard nothing from Russia you know about that but the German assessment is it was Russia putting that aside it when it comes to the West Asia and the relationship between Russia and India India somehow confused they had a cooperation with Iranians in the bandarit Chabahar into southern part of Iran close to the Pakistan border.

32:36And here here is there is a port here they call it let me just in this area this this called bandarit Chabahar which was a project that India comes here and improve this port or somehow you know prepare it for new trades happening because there is other way. And the project also happening between Russia and Iran North South Korea which that part of that is India but they basically came here to help you know to have some sort of cooperation with Iran and government and it was asked it was mentioned during Modi the second meeting Modi had it was with Iran and President Pezashkyan and Modi has decided to stay to stay aside not be part of the conflict in the world.

33:36And the West Asia he sided with Israel before the war started you remember the war started on February 28th I'm talking about the second attack on Iran 28 when the United States together with Israel attack Iraq on 25th if I'm not mistaken Modi went to Israel. He basically has decided he's going to be on the part of Israel and the United States when it comes to the West Asia it took side but in that meeting that he had with Pezashkyan in at the SEO summit he mentioned that in the near future we may get back to the you know cooperation with Iranians or having some sort of but what is that future it means I I assume that's not going to happen as long as all Trump is in office in Washington. The policy of the sanctions is going on and on and on till the last moment of the Trump administration hoping I assume that they know that these sanctions are not going to do anything that's why Donald Trump is so frustrated his so the desperation is going high in the mind of Donald Trump in my opinion that's why he attacked Iran it wasn't at all about the minds he needed to do something he needed to hit Iran again.

34:53Because the sanctions are not working and Scott Besson today said that he's going to announce new sanctions on Iran since the you know the operation economic outcast was announced we've seen no new sanctions on Iran but Scott Besson today said he's going to announce them on the crypto currency or something like a digital currency is going to put pressure on Iranians and I don't know how far they can go we know that they have the cooperation of the. UAE it depends on the UAE as well and Iran has its own understanding with the you a they are communicating they are talking to each other i'm talking about the government in in the United Arab Emirates and the government in Tehran they're talking to each other. So they know what's going on if they feel that the u a is not cooperating the trying to do something against Iran we may see again you know as part of these attacks Iran attacking you a but so far they have been there has been limited.

35:57So the attack on you a because of that because of the communication between the two sides basically is in economic sort of communication between Iran and you a getting back to the sco summit the sco summit had something new the Turkish government was there the Turkish government had the communication with the audience they talk about what's going on I assume they were talking about the in my. I understand is the case of the you know them as they call it the mecca defense alliance the mecca defense alliance is something important many people want to downplay what's going on because it's you know Turkey is not you know we're in pressure Turkey can do a lot when it comes to Israel what the. The calculation on the part of Turkey so complicated when you put yourself in the shoes of Erdogan and you you want to think like the way he thinks you may understand that in Syria they they don't want to back down they know Israel is trying to occupy the southern part of Syria at the same time they have to keep the good relationship with the United States and Erdogan is hoping that he can he can buy after he fives from.

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