Ossoff is Utterly CRUSHING His Opponent. There's Just One Catch...

0:00If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. Hi, I'm Sean Evans from Hot Ones and I want to tell you about YouTube Premium. It has offline downloads, so you can watch without Wi-Fi, background play, so you can lock your phone and it still plays baby. Oh, and it is completely ad-free. Yes, I said it, ad-free. Try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. How eligibility varies? Terms apply? Cancel anytime. Bite into a stacked sandwich made with hero bread. And the only thing you'll think is... Delicious! You won't think it has up to 19 grams protein. 11 to 32 grams of fiber or just 0 to 5 grams net carbs. But it does. Hero bread. No compromises, just low of spuns, tortillas, bagels and noodles packed with flavor. Right now, get 10% off at Hero.co with code iHeart. All figures for serving up hero bread, see nutrition facts on hero.co.

1:00Hey, everybody, it's Tim Miller. Welcome back to the board. Takes feed. I'm here with my colleague, Lauren Egan, author of the opposition newsletter. It's the Democrats winning November. We're going to have to rename your newsletter. I was thinking about that. We might need to do a rebrand. What's up, guys? We'll take ideas in the comments on Lauren Egan's newsletter covering Democrats and Democrats have a gossip and what the Democrats should be doing, what they're doing well, what they're doing just okay. Before we get to this topic, which is blowing up my text and slack feed and eventually I'm just like we should actually talk to the people about this. I do want to say we're going to be discussing Georgia. What's happened with John Ossoff, what's happening with the governor's race. And we're going to be there in Georgia coming up here in what three weeks. Sarah JBL Sam and I will be there. Bill is coming to Georgia. Mark Hurtling is going to be there. You're in Charlotte. You're in Carolina. Yeah, you're going to Charlotte. We still got tickets for Charlotte too. The Atlanta venue. There's still room. They're still putting in their good seats available. Go to the board.com slash events.

2:01Come hang out. We're working on a special guest. We already got Mayor Pete and Charlotte working on somebody cool through Atlanta. So please get your tickets right now. Okay. This is kind of the deal. We spend a lot of time for good reason talking about my boo, John Ossoff, right? Senator Maivu. What did that originate? It was literally from this woman on Twitter who started a Senator Maivu account. And it's taken off. Senator Maivu, John Ossoff. I've got the origin story of it in my newsletter. Don't worry. I'll send you the link. You missed that one, I guess. Yeah, I got you. You know, you're put out so much good content. It's possible that I read it and let it slip out of my mind. Senator Maivu, he's just been maug and everybody and he's crushing the polls and yeah, you know, I mean, the Republicans are like pulling out of the Senate race financially. It sounds like we're almost at a point where it feels like John Ossoff is just guaranteed to win reelection to Senator, which is kind of crazy, as a Democratic Senator in Georgia of all places. And so like the undercurrent of that is might he run for president and like the weather

3:06now he runs for president is incumbent on what happens here in the governor's race. So anyway, actually before we get to the governor's race, do you have any objections to my positioning of the Georgia race? I mean, the Republicans are basically folding, right? Oh, completely. Yeah, they're just going to stop spending there. Like I think that the series is is done. I just got to create. I mean, like a man. It's so crazy. It's September of 26. It's like the big political question for John Ossoff is, can he run for president in 28 or not? Oh, that's really that's remarkable. At the start of the cycle, it was like, oh, God, Democrats might lose Georgia. Like, it's not just four seats. They have to win. They've got to win five because Georgia's going to go, you know, and that's not where we are. All right. So, so here's the scumbot around and you did write this and you just let it. A while back, but I think it's becoming more and more acute as Ossoff kind of emerges as a popular 2028 candidate. People are scuttling about. And as we get closer into the fall and the polls don't change in the governor's race. So the state of play is this. We prompted this little video is that a you go of poll released this week had Ossoff winning

4:07by 10 51 41 in the Senate race. And the governor's race, Keisha Lance bottoms losing to Rick Jackson. It's kind of businessman, man, business man type among among all voters. She's losing 45 44 among people who identified as most as they will definitely vote Jackson expanded as late even 47 44. So I mean, that's a 13 point spread. It's a double digit spread between Ossoff and and bottoms as far as, you know, the gap there. And I mean, the 2028 relevance is that if Rick Jackson wins that race, John Ossoff's stuck in his seat. And for Warlock too, you know, I mean, obviously there's a little less for Warlock. Yeah, it's just this is bad. I would say there's two important parts about this gubernatorial election. One is the 2028 implications on the democratic side. Like does this completely kneecap Ossoff from running for president, democratic primary

5:10voter, even if he does run, democratic primary voters are very strategic. They like to play playplundent. So does this factor into how they kind of think about who they want to throw their support behind? And then the other part that is worth mentioning to is the election certification part of this. This has always been what Democrats have been so anxious about about this race is they kind of dodge the bullet with Bert Jones, who's another Republican that was running in the primary, lost the primary. He's like a crazy election denier. Mark Jackson's not that much better, but like it's just a very, very scary race with enormous 2028 implications for Ossoff and then like do that actual election results get certified properly. What is like feel you talk to like what explains? I mean, like we do not have that much split ticket voting anymore in politics. Like I'm trying to think, I mean, I guess Collins, it would have been in 20. The Collins split with Trump was, was double digits. It's hard for me to think of another time where you have two statewide candidates in a state

6:12running this far apart from each other. And you know, I think the key to last bottoms was mayor of Atlanta for people who are familiar with her. I think that there were some critiques of how she was running the city, particularly around COVID and you know crime issues around then and a lot of mayors dealt with this and a lot of people don't want to go back to COVID time. So I think part of it is that. This message is sponsored by Upwork. Every business owner hits a point where they need more expertise than they can handle alone. But another full time higher, well, it's just not always the answer. That's where Upwork comes in. It's where growing businesses find highly skilled freelance specialists, not just for one off task, but to build an entire team and to do so at a fraction of the cost and without the commitment of a permanent headcount. Upwork gives your business fast access to highly skilled specialists with deep expertise so you can fill critical skill gaps, launch projects faster and scale support up or down without committing to a full time headcount. Plus, you can browse profiles, review past work and get help scoping the roles so you can

7:16hire with confidence and get started quickly. And the best part is this. It's free to sign up and posting a job is super easy. So visit upwork.com right now and post your job for free. That's upwork.com to connect with top talent ready to help your business grow. That's UPWORK.com. Upwork.com. Maybe there is some racism, sexism involved. I could ton of black voters in Georgia. If you look at these polls, I was also starting better than her among black voters, not just white voters. It's like, what do people say? It's like, or what do you think is the reason for such a huge gap? Then it's so frustrating about this race for Democrats is that going back a year ago, there were concerns about Kishel and Spottams running in this race. I think it's largely a candidate quality issue. So when I started this selection cycle, when I was talking to Democratic operatives in the States, when I was talking to folks on the national level, a lot of them said, look,

8:17she was not a good mayor of Atlanta. She did not run for a election when she was mayor. She abruptly announced in 2021 that she was not going to seek a election. She gave this very emotional press conference announcing that it was for personal reasons. At the time, it was largely seen as an indication or reflection that she did not think that she could win a election as mayor. Fast forward to today. She decides that she's going to run for governor. I think a lot of people were looking around me like seriously. We don't have anyone better that can do this. This woman left office and having all this overseeing COVID and the huge crime wave in Atlanta and the tech ads basically write themselves. Rick, it's actually a ton of money. This is the other thing. The Republican money machine, Mike Collins is going to depend on a lot of national money to run ads. He's not a white nationalist himself. He sure loves hanging out with all the white nationalists, all the white nationalists like him. He's getting his ass kicked. Republicans are looking to other states.

9:17This is a better place to spend money. Rick Jackson, that's a different deal. A Republican governor's association has money. Rick Jackson himself has got a godly amount of money. That also explains part of the gap. There's a candidate quality gap on the Republican side too. Man, you just have to wonder. Is it really possible? I guess in Georgia, let me correct myself. I can take another example of Collins and Trump, a time where there was a big sweat vote. It was War Not Camp voters. That would have been in the 2022 midterm. We're doing this on the fly. While you answer, I'm going to Google it. We're going to see how good my guess is. I think that was like 6%. The question is how much does Asaf, part of the Asaf gambit here, if he's even thinking he may be possibly might run for 2028, is I got to run up the score as much as possible here to try to drag bottoms across the lines. Yeah. People in Georgia have basically said to me behind the scenes, if she wins, it will be

10:21because Asaf drags her across the line. They are out doing campaign rallies together. He is on the campaign trail, campaigning for her nonstop. I have a hard time seeing a world in which Asaf wins his race by eight points and she doesn't make it across the finish line, even if it is a pretty big difference between the two of them. I mean, crazy or things have certainly happened. Obviously, the 2022 is just a prime straight parallel camp. I was wrong. It was 10 points. Camp wins 53, 46. Camp wins by 7. Then he doesn't drag her across the line. War Not Quins by 3, 51, 48. So, I mean, if you're Asaf, if you can just use that as a rule of thumb, it's like, you got to win by 11. You got to win by double digits, which is crazy. Win by double digits in Georgia. So I mean, how much are, I know that all of us, you know, doing the kind of, you know, whoever, like live in political gossip world, are talking about the implications on 28.

11:23But like, what are you here from? I'm like, Democratic strategist, Asaf people, Georgia people, like, is this really something that, I mean, it has to be something. It's something that they're thinking about, right? Yeah. When I talk to strategists, yeah, they're like, he can't run if he, if she does not win her 2028, I mean, let's say the Democrats even get have a crazy blowout November and they still have, I don't know, something insane, like what's the best case scenario, like 54 Senate seats or something like that. It's still like, the Senate is tough. Like you can't give up a seat. You know, even if you have a phenomenal, the November, it's just too hard of a map for Democrats, cycle to cycle. And so I think that there'll be a lot of, like when I'm talking to folks, like, yeah, there's going to be a lot of pressure even though he's kind of got this like star power right now is like, definitely seems to be on the rise. There's going to be pressure on him to stay in the Senate and to not run, to just wait it out another cycle or two. And you know, as you know, in politics, like you take your moment when you got it and that would suck for him if it's Kishel and spot, it's keeping him from taking that shot.

12:29And I mean, you think he's thinking about it, right? I mean, obviously he has to, he's seeing the thing that he's waiting. But I don't hear from staffers that I think people are waiting to get hired because they want to know if he's going to be in before they sign up with somebody else. I mean, he is a buzz. Can't know whether that has staying powering. We've all seen buzzed for candidates before, but it's pretty rare that somebody has a lot of buzz to run for president and then doesn't do it. And a lot of times when they don't, when that happens, they regret it. I mean, there's the article the other day about big boy Chris Christie thinking about running again for another sad pathetic loser campaign. And it was like his moment was 2012 and he didn't take it. And you know, time people move on in politics. New cycle moves on more quickly than ever. Like, you know, you got to strike with the iron taught. And so it's kind of like, you know, a Democrat gets in and then, you know, next thing, you know, it's 2036, right? Like, so if a gen generally, if people have this kind of buzz, they... Hey, what's up, guys? It's Hayley Bailey. Okay, I need to tell you about something.

13:30I just got YouTube Premium. It's got tons of awesome features like offline downloads so I can download my favorite videos before I travel and watch them whenever I don't have Wi-Fi. Because we all know airplane Wi-Fi is the worst. I get to add free, I get back room play and there's like a ton more in there. You should try it. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. Try it now for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. Hi, I'm Sean Evans from Hot Ones and I want to tell you about YouTube Premium. It has offline downloads so you can watch without Wi-Fi. Background play. So you can lock your phone and it still plays, baby. Oh, and it is completely add free. Yes, I said it, add free. Try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. How eligibility varies? Terms apply? Cancel anytime. Bite into a stack sandwich made with hero bread or a fully loaded bagel.

14:30And the only thing you'll think is delicious. You won't think it's up to 19 grams of protein, but it is. You wouldn't believe it has 11 to 32 grams of fiber, but it does. Hero bread makes low-spons tortillas, bagels and noodles packed with taste, but without on the net carbs. We're talking zero to five grams net carbs per serving. With hero bread, there are no compromises. Just flavor. There's none of the stiff baked goods you'd expect from better for your brands. There's just the soft, fluffy bread you crave. Plus, small batch drops of indulgent favorites, like the popular two-gram net carb hero croissant and three-gram net carb hero penneau chocolade. And right now, hero bread is offering 10% off your order. Go to hero.co and use code iHeart to check out. That's code iHeart at H-E-R-O dot CO. All figures per serving of hero bread seem nutrition facts on hero.co. They do it. They take it. Yeah, when I'm talking to staffers, it's a similar thing. People are, there's a lot of people that are knocking on their door, really interested

15:31in working for, is campaign, potential campaign. And they're kind of being like, you know, we're going to wait till post election, but like post-mint in election. But these are obviously like all decisions that they're thinking through. The one thing that I have heard from people is, you know, he's got young kids and that that gen, he's, they're not really public. He doesn't post his kids ever. So and that's like an interesting, like just to humanize this a little bit, you know, like that is an interesting thing. You'll have to think through, like you have to kind of shed some of that privacy entirely. And so there are like, familiar factors that I think he's weighing through, but yeah, like, hey, there was so many people wanting him to run. Should, Keisha, when the governor should look, I don't think that he sits out this opportunity. So yeah, I want to disagree with one of the things you said at the top of that war knock, maybe not being able to run because war knock is up in 28, right? So war knock could do the thing where you get in, test the waters. And if you don't win the nomination, that's right.

16:33Then whatever you stay in your seat. So he would have to have an opportunity to run still, I think. And even still it's 28. So it's like the appointment is only for a couple for short periods of time. Someone else could run. Yeah. Yeah. So there's like a little bit of, um, is that funny? How it works out, like just like, just like, just like, just their dynamic between the two of them, they are on the same ballot the very first time. Right. Like if they just run in different race, you know, it's, it's crazy. But yeah. And the whole thing is, and there's just so much luck in life. And the whole Asaf story is so crazy. And he runs the first time for us to lose as I can see a bunch of this has happened to W Obama. Um, and then runs in 20 against Purdue, basically loses. It's because I had, if Georgia is a different state, you know, Georgia has this rule. You got to get 50%. That's not the rule at every stage, right? Or else there's a runoff. And so because of this libertarian spoiler, Asaf gets to go to a runoff, even though Purdue had more votes in the first round.

17:33And then that election is held on the eve of January 6th. And so Trump's insanity between November and January, you know, like, um, creates an environment that allows Asaf to win the runoff after losing the first round. And now, and so yeah, I don't know. Maybe he's just got like, you know, kind of Irish horseshoe up his butt. Sometimes, you know, it's better to be lucky than good. And he'll get lucky again with bottoms. But I don't know. It's, it's pretty crazy series of events. That January 6th, I was actually in Georgia covering the runoff on January 6th, as like, everyone was, you know, going crazy over at the Capitol. You know, to say, I thought I had the biggest story of the day. And I did not, um, as it turns out, uh, with also one in the runoff, but the, the, the needing to get to 50 above 50% is like an important factor here too. And it's kind of how Kisha won the primary, uh, like if she does lose this gubernatorial race, I mean, there's going to be a lot that Georgia Democrats are going to have to answer for.

18:34They were hoping people that are critical of her in the party were hoping that she was not going to hit that 51% threshold in the primary. And she did, she crushed. So this is kind of like a problem of Democrats own making in a way like they all this primary phase on the Democratic side was very sleepy. Everyone's kind of sleepwalked to it and said, there's no way she's going to get above the threshold. We're going to go to runoff and we'll just figure our shit out. Whoever makes it to the runoff with her, which was probably going to be the Sky name Jason S. of S. Anyways, she does. She crushes and gets like 56% of the vote. Um, and here we are. So there's a little bit of like Democrats kind of fucked themselves here and like didn't take this seriously until it was too late. Maybe she overperformed again in a month and a half and this becomes moot. But it could happen. I'm, I'm like pretty, I'm pretty pessimistic and like just like Laura missed about this rate, but yeah, it could, it could happen. It's pretty wild that like the Democratic 2028 nominee could hinge on who wins

19:35the governor's race between Rick J. I've seen in Keisha Lance bottoms two people that nobody imagine are going to be anywhere near the presidential tickets on either party. It's interesting serious events. Anyway, okay, we want to take everybody in on that little gossip and encourage feel to come to Atlanta because we're talking a lot more about both of these races. And we're going to have a bunch of fun. So go to get your tickets aboard.com slash events and Laura and we see you in Charlotte with Mayor Pete. All right. Sounds good. All right. Later everybody subscribe to the feed. You may not remember every time you toss turn or wake up hot, but your body does. That's why you wake up tired before the day even starts. That's exactly what Ghostbed is built to help solve when your mattress creates pressure points, your body shifts to get comfortable when it traps heat. You kick off the covers. Ghostbed is designed to help relieve pressure, regulate temperature and support your body. So your sleep has fewer reasons to be interrupted. Plus their cooling technology is built into every mattress and Ghostbed comes

20:38with a 101 night sleep trial. You can try it at home and feel the difference for yourself because the real test of a mattress is how you feel in the morning. If you're waking up hot sore or tired before the day even starts, you need to check out Ghostbed and right now get an extra 10% off their lowest prices of the season. Go to ghostbed.com slash I heart and use promo code I heart. That's ghostbed.com slash I heart promo code I heart college football balls back start trading on polymarket new customers use promo code ball 50 deposit $10 to get $50 instantly to start trading. 18 plus E polymarket terms of service for more information about restrictions and eligibility. The polymarket app is an independent affiliate of polymarket US and not CFTC regulated trading always involves risk complete loss can occur. The $50 offer is issued is non withdrawalable trading credit for use on the platform offer exclusively available to first time to positives.