Private Credit Contagion Risk and All the Lies

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47xUXzF

David Bahnsen hosts this week’s Dividend Cafe, briefly noting ongoing Iran-related market volatility but avoiding a third straight week of geopolitical speculation, criticizing market pundits for pseudo-military commentary. He instead addresses private credit, arguing mainstream narratives wrongly conflate liquidity/redemption features with claims of current, broad credit distress. He says reported loan issues are being overstated, noting a $600 million sale from a multi-billion-dollar portfolio cleared at 99.7% of par, and that future defaults—if they rise—won’t be monolithic and require manager-, collateral-, and portfolio-level nuance. He outlines five points: avoid simplistic AI/software assumptions; recent loan sales were near par; losses fall on investors, not banks, making risk non-systemic; a washout of weak managers can strengthen capital allocation; and investors should distinguish good vs bad and aligned vs non-aligned managers. He adds software loan yields rose while total loan yields are lower than a year to 18 months ago.

00:00 Welcome and Market Volatility

00:42 Why Not Iran Again

02:51 Private Credit Enters Spotlight

03:25 Defaults vs Liquidity Confusion

04:57 What the Facts Show

06:11 AI Software Loan Hype

07:06 Five Key Takeaways

08:56 Systemic Risk Myth

10:20 Alignment Matters Most

11:28 Chatter vs Reality

12:37 Chart and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com