Prop Points | September 11, 2026

0:00this is prop points on Vsin. These sports betting network. Now here's your host, the guru himself, John Hansen. Good afternoon, happy Friday. Welcome to another edition of prop points here on Vsin. I'm John Hansen of Fantasy Points.com, the program per usual produced by Mr. Michael Cohen and another big program forthcoming, plenty of betting leans and TD props, which will get to in about 15 minutes for NFL Sunday, then we'll step aside from the football talk to talk with Josh Chivalier of fantasy points college football, my man was four and one last week. So he's got a bunch more props for

1:00college football action, mostly tomorrow in segment number three at the bottom of the hour, and then we'll end the program with my top props for NFL Sunday. I do have eight of them that I'm officially going in on and we better have a good week because we're already behind as we review last night's activities and it's been a tough start. There's no way around it. We've got a ton of mitigating circumstances with these two standalone games, which of course it's a standalone game. So I feel compelled to pop out some props like the opener, the starting quarterback for Seattle goes down. That kind of threw a monkey wrench into the plan and of course, AJ Brown going down, Seattle's defense absolutely lights out. Last night, of course, you've got the travel issue, which was very apparent obviously for the Los Angeles Rams and that kind of ruined everything quite frankly. We went

2:01one and one on the leans, but not so good on the problem. We barely won that McCaffrey prop. I mean, you got to be kidding me. And what happened? We got the five grabs, but if you watch the game, he dropped an easy one early there's six and then he had a literal catch that was rolled a non catch and they didn't check it out. That was seven. That was our Thursday night special and actually know it was the Thursday night special. Yeah, 262. I took a shot with George Kierolley. Got me. What can I say? Now he was out there a lot. He looked good early. Jake Tungus actually even got hurt. Perhaps if the Rams had put up a fight, George would have gotten hurt. And he was out there. I was out there. I was out there looking unfortunately and Devonte Adams. I'm shocked that I even went with this one quite frankly because well

3:01I understand why because it's been really quiet. I'm like, OK, he's healthy. You know, Pukas had a very colorful off season. So I thought it would be a higher scoring affair. It was not so not great, but the good play. I think all the good plays and that's exactly what I've done. I do have a couple of unders involved here and speaking of unders. Unfortunately, as the Niners get it done 27 seven. I mean, once again, hate to say it. If you bet all unders, you win. Basically a Brock party didn't get to his yards. He did get tuddies. Obviously Stafford didn't get to anything. Blake Corm, I believe, did what he looked good. By the way, really good. I mean, I didn't get there. Kyron did in the passing game. But Pukas didn't get there. Catches, yards, those were all unders. But over here for the Niners. Well, let's talk about the Zon Straddling. It does look like he

4:01avoided a kill is we'll get to that. A serious one. Mike Evans look really good. I mean, I certainly expect that I though 49. I'm not sure if he hit his total. He did score. But of course, Debo out there out of nowhere. Six grabs for 48. And of course, DeMarcus Robinson started by 0.0 people in the gambling space and in fantasy leaves the team and gets the touchdown back. I'm going back and forth a little bit here. The tight ends for the Rams. And look, I probably have to just throw it out. It was one of Matthew Stafford's worst games, perhaps ever. 155 with zero touchdowns and a pick. But man, these tight ends, Davis Allen Tyler Higby Colby, Parkinson, Terence Ferguson, all got targets. But to me, big story of the game. And we did lose the McCaffrey Pymene. You got to, you got to just throw your hands up in the air sometimes when you take a rushing under for a

5:02guy that gets 10 carries. And he gets it big time. But I do think that Kyle Shanahan talked about the plan for this backfield. And boy, I didn't know if it would get going in week one, but it sure is heck did what my guy Kale on black. He was my top sleeper running back in on the board this year. I had him on my target list, been giving his kid a lot of love. And man, he was the number two ready to run it back for the Niners in the draft out of Indiana. He come out there getting early meaningful carries. But what that he did, presumably by the old eyeball test is it kept McCaffrey under wraps a little bit. You're putting a lot of trust in Kale on black. I'm sure he missed some holes. But you know, he is a rookie and he overall showed very well, 4.6 yards per carry. So I think this is going to be the plan going forward because again, it worked right at the half. They start giving him McCaffrey some carries and he was like a shot out

6:02of a cannon there because he only had a shot out of the eight seven carries in the first half. If that maybe even six. So get used to Kale on black being a factor and probably limiting McCaffrey's upside. But over the long haul, it will probably work well. I think it goes without saying that Kale on black is a top waiver wire guy. I actually drafted him in a bunch of legs. We talked about that high stakes draft. I did for the FFPC. I think it was like. It was over the over the half. But we talked about that draft early this week. I did in fact draft Kale on black so more for a stash and hope guy obviously, but pretty clear that if Christian McCaffrey does miss time, Caleb Black is a starter at worst, a third running back in fantasy. Let's take a look at some news and storylines coming out of the National football league and the Patriots have placed one author Brown on IR. He will be of four games. I think they got the Raiders in a month. So I think he'll, I guess I'll miss that too. Yeah.

7:07But we got Pittsburgh at Jacksonville and at Buffalo. That's a little bit of a scary schedule for New England and they're just like that. Just like that, they're back to being pretty darn thin at receiver. These next four weeks are thinner than they were last year. Because last year they had a guy named K-Shaw and Booty who they obviously traded away to Houston ESPN's Josh WineFuss reports that the expectation is that Jeremiah Love will play Sunday against the Chargers. I am certainly preparing and I have been for a lot of Tyler Alger. He's pretty rock solid. Certainly not the greatest matchup. I do expect L.A. to be up in that game. The Cowboy signed Ryan Flornoi. Pretty big deal here for, for dude in his position, Ryan Flornoi. Most people haven't heard of him, but he's pretty good, pretty good vertical thread. I love him as there are three. One year deal worth six million bucks and speaking of Dizzond Stribbling as I noted earlier per Shanahan. The Achilles was intact after week ones victory.

8:13It also Jake Tungis per Shanahan suffered an MCL injury against the Rams. Quick look at some other notable injuries through the Thursday practice. Roman Duneset has still been limited. I am in on a Bears receiver. So stay tuned for that. Jonathan Brooks, he's still limited. Some soreness. Certainly Bo's pretty well for Chuba Hubbard. The Bills and Texans, not much going on here, but Ty Johnson's out of practice. I'm not even exactly sure why. But if he ends up being ruled out or inactive, I mean that would certainly help James Cook's ability to catch the ball and produce in the passing attack. You got St. Lions, Alvacameras still limited. Obviously it's going to be Travis H. Chan. Guess we got that right. Christian Isian, more on him, believe it or not later, but he is their slot corner. He has been limited, expecting fireworks in that game. St. Lions in Detroit, Browns, Jags, Malik Collins, keeping on that. I do like the Jaguar running game. We'll talk about that a little bit later.

9:16Jacobi Myers, Malik Collins, the D tackle there for the Browns. Jacobi Myers has been limited in practice this week. So we'll check on that. Bucks, Bengals, the Mecca Buka full practice. That's good. But General Mcmillan, I like General Mcmillan, but he's been limited. So I'm going to hold off on using the prop, Sean Tucker, limited as well, Ruben Bain, a full practice. But the Bengals DJ Turner has been limited. So we'll keep an eye on that. When the final injury report, he has a shutdown corner there for the Cincinnati Bengals. Falcon Steelers, mycopetics full practice, but to a tongue of Elowa, still the starter, we think. He's been limited. That's scary. Jets Titans looks good for Breeze Hall, fully practicing. Not much going on for the Titans. Ravens Colts, Zay flowers, a full practice. Alex Pierce, though, is limited. I'd be careful there. We mentioned Jeremiah Love, limited. Josh Sweat still limited. Keith Mitchell, limited. I do like

10:16Amarie and Hampton in this game. Commanders Eagles, Jekori Kroski Merritt is still limited, which could bode well for Rashad White's role in Doron Pain, limited. That could help a Saquon Barkley, Grenard for the Eagles has been limited. Dolphins Raiders, obviously Brock Bowers, but Ashton Gentie, a full practice, Packers Vikings, Hargrave, and why a couple of detacles that could bow limited for the Packers, that could help the Vikings. Vikings are very healthy. Going into this one, Cowboys, Giants, Malik neighbors, full practice, Andrew Thomas full practice, Theo Johnson full practice, and then the Chiefs Broncos, Mahomes practicing in full to start the week, Rishi Rice as well. Josh Simmons, the tackle, may not play. We'll talk, touchdown props, and leans on the other side, but first, if you think you're better than the experts, now's your chance to prove it. The Edge Boost Average Joe Contest puts you in the same pick-up game as the Circa Friday football invitation, or the one that pros plays. Top Average Joe earns a spot next year's Circa Invitational Field, free to play. You can register anytime

11:20during the season. Edge Boosts offering its customers a $1,000 deposit. If you finish first before the week, and if you don't have an Edge Boost account yet, sign up at edgeboost.io with the promo code Vison. Make sure your account is funded with at least $100. Enter the contest today at vison.com slash Joe that is vsin.com slash Joe. When we return, I do have some leans and some touchdown props for week one in the National Football League. Here are prop points. You're watching prop points. Put the guru John Hansen on vsen. These sports betting network.

12:21Welcome back to a Friday edition of prop points here on vsen. I'm John Hansen. A little bit of a nougatly start in the National Football League. We do need to make up some ground here on Sunday, but I was just telling our producer Michael Cohen off the air that I have never been more calculated with everything I look at. I do feel good about all the records that we're going to be popping out here going forward now that we don't have to focus and only have a one game to choose from. During the season, I tend to like those standalone games because you know, you're really focused in on them when it's just one game. But early in the season, it's just brutal because of a lot of things, but mainly because these teams and players aren't really playing in the preseason anymore. But neither here nor there, let me pop out like I've been explaining this year. I'm going to be putting out fewer official picks because it's just ridiculous how many I put out

13:24last year, but I will be putting out about the same number of recommendations for those who are interested and we're just simply calling them leans. I've got four leans for week one. I wish I had the courage to put this one on my main list, but I am going on record that Amika, Amika, Abuka will go under. We're taking it under here. 54.5. Now DJ Turner is limited, so not so sure about that, but it's 54.5 at minus 115 on Bet MGM. I mean, it's week one. I'm sure DJ Turner, if he was in danger of missing the game, we'd hear more about it. So it could be absolutely nothing quite frankly, but the situation here for Abuka does not bode well. And by the way, I'm going to be making another official, making an official play that's kind of corresponds to this Abuka fade, if you will. Abuka under 54.5. Bengals allowed the seventh fewest receptions per game and the sixth fewest receiving yards per game to outside receivers last year.

14:29And a lot of that was Mr. DJ Turner, who we are projecting shadow coverage on Abuka. Turner gave up just .20 fantasy points per rat run. That was the seventh fewest of any outside corner. Abuka is practicing in full, but we do know he's been dealing with that turftow. It's also a negative schematic matchup for him and his quarterback, struggling lately, or at least last year, in terms of cover three, which they run 34% of the time and cover one. So all total that's 55% of the time. Amaka Abuka is only at 1.58 yards per rat run on 270 routes against those coverages. So I did lose in Abuka over last year and it was a lock to win until he cut loose on a fluky play. I think it was against the Eagles. It was a ball that

15:30went through two players hands. I believe one of them was Cooper DeGener may have been read blank and shipped and then he kind of caught it and took off and I, oh, there's a loss. But unless we get one one play like that, a big kind of fluky play, I think we're going to be good with this one here. Next up, I am a Rashad white apologist always have always will be from day one. Never said he was a stud, by the way, but I did opine that he had some of the best hands I've ever seen for a running back. So we're going to put that to the test a little bit here. And part of this is, look, it's a very low total. I understand Laramie tonsils out. The offensive line is shaky. It is a certainly a tough matchup, but white is very good in pass pro. So he's going to be out there a lot. And I do think Philly is going to crush him. By the way, I think Barclay is going to run all over them. So we are actually projecting 18, which doesn't sound like a lot,

16:32but that's a 24% boost to this total. And I like I said, he should be out there on third down and all that. So all we need is a couple of screens and dump off or two. And we'll take it in garbage time, by the way. That's kind of what I'm thinking. It might be a quiet game for Rashad. You might get some early down carries with Cory Croskey merit hurt, but I'm thinking at the end of the game against a disinterested Eagles team that already has it in the bag. Let's give Rashad a couple of dump offs there in garbage time. Next up Parker Washington almost went official on this, but we are officially leaning toward this as a play. And we are going to keep track of the lanes, by the way, over 53.5 receiving yards at minus 113 on D. Kemene. If he can pick up where I left off last year, we're good. I mean, he was absolutely bawling last year. Chikobi Myers is a little bit banged up here. New Browns DC Mike Ruttenberg was their defensive pass game

17:34coordinator last year. He's still around. They ranked second in the NFL and cover four usage. Parker Washington sees an 83% boost to his yards per route run against cover four over his last 10 regular season games and a whopping. This is a huge number. 4.43 yards per route run. That is massive. He should also mostly avoid their solid outside corners in a Denzel Warden Tyson Campbell. Next up, here's my, I guess you could say it's a weird one, but it's I think sneaky. Khalif Raymond over 16.5 receiving yards at minus 115 on D. Kemene. I felt very strongly about this. I almost put it in the official plays when I'm like, you know, it's week one. Let's not try not to be a hero, but I do like this quite a bit. Khalif Raymond played for Ben Johnson for multiple years, obviously, in Detroit. That's why he's there. And I spoke with Brad

18:38Biggs a long time beat writer of the Chicago Tribune in the summer. And he said, hey, Khalif Raymond's all over the place in practice. He's going to be their slot receiver Carolina gave up the seventh most yards to the slot last year while they gave up the 10th fewest on the outside. So Raymond will avoid their outstanding corners. Mike Jackson and JC Horn. And it is also a tougher schematic and individual matchup for Roma Dunes, a who's also banged up. All right, or real quick. I've got some touchdown props. And by the way, spoiler alert, the lot of these guys are going to be mentioned in the final segment. Let's just say that. But we'll start with Malik Welles anytime, Tuddy at plus 330. We are projecting a whopping 49.5 rushing yards. For Malik Willis. Very quietly. He was the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL last year on a per

19:41dropback basis. Of course, only 47 dropbacks. But he averaged 1.1 fantasy points for dropback. All of it, not all of it, but most of it, obviously, dude, was running. That was double what Josh Shalant did last year, which is pretty, pretty crazy. Next up, try the valet. My guy, Devon Valet at plus 400 deep sleeper this summer. And I don't think he could have asked for a better matchup in this one. He should see a good amount of Christian Isian in the slot. He's only 5.9. And Valet is 6.4. So we're looking at a distinct size advantage. I don't know if he'll be on him in the end zone. But he's certainly a very inviting end zone target. I remember we hit a Thursday night special a couple of years ago when he was with Denver. We're like, try the valet. And he scored. And it was a big one here. Detroit's 7 point home favorite. We got a high total of 50 expected. I see the Saints throwing it a ton. So I do like me some of a lay. The upside

20:44in this one is real. Next up, a little bit of a shot in the dark here. But I think the jaguars as 8.5 point home favorites are going to do well on the ground with Baytial Tudon and Chris Rodriguez. Tudon averaged 0.63 fantasy points. A person that while leading that was the 10th most. And he's going to get the ball. But Rodriguez ranks since entering the NFL among 67 qualifying running backs. He ranks first in yards. They have to contact per attempt. So if you're not giving him the ball and a close a roll. I don't know what we're doing. But we could also we could certainly see him be the preferred option for Liam Cohen on top of the goal. If it's first and goal to two Cohen loves Rodriguez. He had him at Kentucky and then last but not least. Cade Otten the fantasy ottoman anytime touchdown at plus 360 last year. The Bengals gave up the most targets yards receptions and touchdowns to tight ends along along with the highest market share

21:48in the NFL for the position at 31%. So I feel good about that. Feel really good about our guide Josh Javalle A of college fantasy points college football. My man was four and one last week. So get ready for some great picks for week two. But first the way to finally over college football in the NFL are officially underway now as a time to get your edge with Vison Pro. Become a Vison Pro subscriber today instant access to the updated NFL betting guide with post preseason updates week one betting systems contest strategies fresh best bets and more. You'll also receive the college football betting guide with previews of all 138 FPS teams. Sign up now. You'll get daily best bets real time betting. Slice them draft draft Kings and circa a power prop tools 21st seven video on the Vison watch app get started for just 999 or say 50% with a Vison Pro annual subscription at evison.com slash subscribe now that's vsi n.com slash subscribe Josh Javalle A college football

22:49prop edge coming at us next here on this Friday edition of prop points. You're watching prop points with the guru John Hansen on Vison these sports betting network. Welcome back to this Friday edition of prop points here on Vison before we go to the progressive guest line breaking news in the NFL friend of this program. Mr. Adam Schefter reporting that to a tongue of L.O.A. has been ruled out so it will be Cooper rush getting the start for the Falcons who just signed on July 26th. So could be worse. I've seen worse but that's not a huge window.

23:52Well we have a big window to win cash on college football props every Friday. It's we're up to it right now Josh Javalle A college football analyst over at fantasy points on the ex-machine at CFF guys Josh. Welcome back to the program. First question are you more happy about going four and one last week or more sad that you missed five and oh by one damn yard how are you. Oh man you know it never feels good to miss anything by half a yard but you know this is how props go right. Sometimes when the lines are close and the edges are tight you know you're gonna miss occasionally so I'm looking forward to this week getting back on it we'll take an 80% hit rate any day of the week. No doubt well let's get into it because right out of the gate here you got a big one here big game number one Ohio State against number four Texas we're just talking I watched that Texas game for

24:55about two three quarters I thought Archman and looked amazing but Julian Sain and Jeremiah Smith were doing their thing last week he caught eight of nine targets for a buck 51 and two tuddies that saw that one of the right side he's flying going like 30 miles an hour you like Jeremiah Smith over 81.5 receiving yards and you you didn't in fact tell me that this is your third try on an over for this stud you're you're oh and two so that means you're due. Exactly I mean Texas has shut this kid down in the playoffs two years ago that he caught like one pass for like six yards and then last year the six catches 43 yards they've had his number it is a different offensive coordinator so I think you know Jeremiah Smith third third times a charm I think can get this one look this kid's unbelievable and he's trying to compete with Malachi Tony right now for the best receiver in college football last week Malachi Tony went for 233 yards Jeremiah Smith

25:57saw that he said I don't care if it's ball state I'm going off eight catches 151 yards and last night Tony went off again four catches for 96 yards in like a quarter of play against Florida and him but I I think Jeremiah is watching his buddy from South Florida and going like I'm going to beat him each and every week and I think he's wants come out and show that he is no doubt the front runner for the bulletinacoff this year and so I think 81.5 is way too short we have met 95 and and a half receiving yards at fantasy points and I think he's going to hit that. And by the way today's props are directly on underdog for those who have access to that let's go to number two wake forest at Purdue tomorrow new eastern kickoff you like the quarterback here for wake geolopez over 234.5 passing yards last week my man was 21 to 32 for 350 so what he's seen here

27:00with geol man this is really a matchup play I mean I like geolopez I think he's got three wide receiver there three wide receivers there at wake forest that are incredible led by Carlos Hernandez and the kid had I think six or seven catches for 150 yards and one half a play last week and look wake forest is the number two offense last year passing offense and explosiveness last week and Purdue was second to last and passing explosiveness defense so they're giving up a ton through the air Purdue I mean they played indian estate and gave up three 40 plus yard receptions if that they if they're going to be that leaky on the back end then geolopez is going to have a field day we haven't projected at 249.9 passing yards this prop is at 234 it may even creep up a little bit more but I think as long as it doesn't hit 240 I'm gonna I'm gonna take the over on this I could see this game you know having some scoring to it and geolopez being the beneficiary of that.

28:04Josh Shivaliye fantasy points college football on the line with us and he's on the ex-machine here at cff guys and also the college football product over there at fantasypoints.com you can use a promo code to get 10% off cfb26 next up here on your list you know when I think of old dominion football for the rest of my life I'm gonna be thinking about Taylor Haniky and his girlfriend or wife and how she looked up at Taylor Haniky I'm like that's that's beautiful right there but that's neither here nor there old dominion at Virginia Tech you got Ethan Grunkmeyer of Vaugh Tech under 239.5 he threw for 224 last week what are you seeing here with baby grunk man Taylor Haniky he's a cf darling back in the day he's the O.D.U. passing record holder so we love him look grunk man I mean look

29:06this this prop I just think it's too high this is a guy that even at 239 and half passing yards he's only gone over this once in his career and it was against Clemson in a bowl game last year they are almost 20 point favorites against O.D.U. this week and their running game was absolutely awesome in week one and I expect them to continue to grind the ball with Marcel's Hawkins with Jeff over 10 who is his dad we played against him in a high school state championship game so Jeff over 10 is bringing back old memories for me but Jeff anyways get Grunkmeyer like I just don't think he's gonna have enough volume in this game to hit 239 and a half passing yards and the fact that he hasn't done it he's more of a game manager than really a guy that's gonna you know crush you through the air so and O.D.U. was tough against the past last year so if Virginia Tech can have success which we expect them to a three touchdown favorite almost then they'll do it through

30:08on the ground and not through the air so I'm going under my first under the year by the way oh okay oh okay well in the NFL I wish I took everything under last night by the way next up Mississippi State at Minnesota tomorrow at 3 30 p.m. Eastern Javan Tracy of Minnesota over 42.5 receiving yards last week caught five of seven targets for 98 in a tuddy so what do you see there yeah I mean again this is a guy you just said it he was the lead receiver last week he moved into the slot this year from outside and took over for the former receiving leader on that team Lemmeek Brockington and so look I'm expecting him to be really good both this week and for this year and Mississippi State's coming in there they just put up a ton of points in week one they have a great quarterback and Mario Taylor so I think they're gonna have to throw the ball Minnesota well to out to keep up here I'm expecting this game to shoot over in the total and leaving you know Javan

31:08Tracy with a bunch of opportunities to go over what's relatively a small line he's been steamed up even since we first looked at this by three to six yards so you know Javan Tracy is going to go over this number of 42.5 I'm a big there's a term for this that I I just tried to google but I can't pull it in but I'm a big first name person I feel like sometimes it's like manifest destiny when you name a kid a badass name like well hasn't really worked out for tank bixby but you know for example like I know it's not his real name but Dibo has been called Dibo since he was literally a child in the crib that's what Dibo Samuel himself told me used to bully other babies and anyway legend glassker of b-y-u over 36.5 three catches for 65 yards I guess was that last week but looks

32:13like you're thinking he's a star better be good if your name's legend what do you got there hey and he's on a team with some guys that have incredible names like bear Bachmeyer and then there's tiger Bachmeyer on that team and then they got Hank I don't know what Hank did is the oldest son to get screwed over but here we are look legend glassker looks like a star in the making b-y-u had a kid last year named Parker Kingston on the team that they would manufacture touches to they're in the slot legends essentially taken over for Parker and he looked awesome in week one he took about four touches and three touchdowns that's amazing he looked like the best player in that receiving court in week one so look this number I just don't think the market has quite caught up to him because he didn't have a lot of targets week one but that's because he played a half against Utah Tech's they didn't need them they will this week against Arizona in order to beat them and so look legend I think is one of the safest calls of this week going over

33:13great stuff Josh Shavallie a fantasy points college at CFF guys on the X machine good luck with the place sir we really appreciate it great job last week my official picks on the other side but first 25 handicaps are going ahead to head all season long on the circuit Friday football invitational live every Friday from seven to 10 p.m. Eastern each contestant makes seven college and NFL plays a week chasing a piece of a $30,000 in prize money want to picks without watching live Vison Pro subscribers get every pick emailed straight to their inbox after the show subscribe at vc.com slash subscribe and never miss a play and don't miss my week one plays next here on prop points

34:16you're watching prop points with the guru john hamson on vc.com these sports betting network final segment of this Friday edition of prop points here on vc.com thanks for tuning in I've already popped out four leans for week one sunday ameka obokka under 54.5 receiving yards minus 115 bet mgm reshawed white over 14.5 receiving yards minus 117 on dk parkour washington over 53.5 receiving yards minus 113 on dk and calif aramon over 16.5 receiving yards minus 115 on dk I know that's a weird name but I do have a pretty good thought process there check out the segment on demand if need be and I will also be popping out a best bet for week one and think about the last year we get off to a red hot start we were eight know I believe the final

35:21record was 12 and six pretty darn good so that is coming out you know coming out you in a moment but right now it is time to reveal for week one my top props you heard the analytics you heard the stats now it's time for what you've really been waiting for the gurus top props we have more analytics and more stats as we pop these out welcome back here malik wellis over 37.5 rushing yards minus 125 not the greatest but that number was a little lower by two yards so with my luck you know when I lose I often lose by like one or two yards so I'm like I'll take the yards but I think it's a move point because we are projecting 49.5 rushing yards in our award-winning projections over at fantasy points by the way that is 32% higher than this line very simply willis has five career games with 14 or more pass attempts basically is played in five

36:27games he's rushed for 43 or more yards in four of the five he was the best quarterback on the field on a fantasy points per dropback basis so I'm very excited to see how malik wellis looks I just have this vibe and this feeling that he is feeling really good about himself in terms of where he's progressed to and you know the game is slowed down for him a little bit and next up I'm going to be very angry if this one doesn't hit because I'm all about trying the valet Devon valet 38.5 receiving yards were going over at minus 115 the lines allowed the sixth most receiving yards per game to the slot last year they won't have inside maven Brian branch or Kirby Joseph the lines have also used man coverage on 38% of opposing dropbacks the final 10 weeks last year second most in the NFL valet sees a 39.9% boost to his targets per route run against the coverage as I mentioned he

37:31should see a lot of isian in the slot who's only five nine so I decided how to advantage there for Devon valet who is kind of like the second he's like number two a or b in the passing attack behind a lave in juan janssen so they're going to need devon valet to step up with jordan tyson on the shelf Detroit seven point home favorite high total of 50 expected saints run off a lot of plays Tyler shucks should be throwing it a ton next up I got two bucks here chris godwin over 41.5 receiving yards at minus one oh nine that is over on dk the bangles gave up the 10th most receiving yards per game two slot receivers he will also avoid inside the great dj turner it's not the greatest schematic matchup but they do use two high safeties about 43% of the time and that's a positive we're looking at a shootout here since he is favored by four points with a total of 50.5

38:34I do expect jo burrow to crush in this game in the bangle offense you got abuka with a brutal matchup so I am thinking chris godwin it's the time to use them while he's relatively healthy he ranked as the wide receiver two it with 19.7 fantasy points per game the first seven games of way back in 2024 next up we're going to go right to k dot and the fantasy ottoman it does look like a shootout like I mentioned abuka does have that brutal matchup like I mentioned jellin mcmillan is also a little limited and again the bangles the greatest tight end matchup in the history of the world last year they gave up the most targets receptions yards touchdowns two tight ends last year with the highest market share at 31% of the targets going to tight ends up against the bangles next we have mr michael pitman we're going to go over 38.5 receiving yards at minus 114 on fandoah

39:39i believe our guy ryan heath was in on this i was in on pitman all year i called him perhaps the most misprice player on the board it's a little confusing because he was on the shelf for the entire month of august basically but he is off the injury report he is not on the injury report it wasn't hamstring last year's falcons with the two same outside cornerbacks and defensive play caller jeff olbrich they were a perimeter funnel they allowed the fifth most receiving yards per game to the outside the ninth fewest to the slot at 13.9 over their last 10 games the falcons led the NFL and cover for usage 32% over that same span pitman saw a 24% boost to his targets per route when against cover four which by the way is a shell that aaron rogers average just a 6.3 a dot dk could get some of course but i think michael pitman was brought in there specifically to be the high volume short passing game option with dk mechaf potentially making a few more

40:47plays down feel good luck with that but pitman should be good to go with a lot of targets next up chris rod regas wearing on the touchdown prop we're also went on over 35.5 rushing yards at minus 111 i mean the jags are 8.5 point home favorites that has worked out well for basal tuton so liam Cohen definitely runs the rock when nursing lead to an average point six three fantasy points per snap while leading that was a tenth best mark among all running backs the browns top seven run funnel by the way by pass rate over expectation allowed it's under a difficult coordinator but they do claim they're going to keep jim shorts scheme intact and like i mentioned since entering the league of 67 qualifying runnebecs run regas was first in yards after contact per attempt second in success rate third in EPA per run fifth in TD rate by the way i think i failed to point that out so you got to think that he's going to get closer carries at the least he could be worked in there

41:52right out of the gate as well with tootin so i like that and we got to get an under in here because under is a hit and like crazy so let's go under and i love davonte smith but let's go under 67.5 receiving yards it's a bigger number for davonte who did miss a lot of time this summer the chemistry may not be there they are working in a new system new dc the commanders dc new dc dc dorante jones is coach under brine floris for a number of years floris is viking second in the usage of two high looks and davonte smith sees a 38% yard per round run against a reduction against the two high looks that may explain how we only got 42 yards and 52 yards in the two matchups so i also think sake one barkly by the way is going to go off we have one thing left to promote that is the best bet for the week but first we'll remind you up next on vson is janathan vantobl and money

42:54moves on today's show austin eckler will join jvt in the circus studio to give his predictions for week one followed by follow the money with mishmoss and paulie howard and at seven matt humans has placed from all 25 contestants competing for 30 grand of derrick stevens's own money in the sucker friday football invitational plus vson pro subscribers get every pic emailed after the show all right here on vson the sports betting network my best bet best pic of the week is colston loveland over 51.5 receiving yards minus 114 on fandall bears head coach ben janssen has consistently crushed cover three which carolina consistency consistently uses and he does it with the tight end the tight ends get a fat 31.3% target share loveland sees a 29% boost to his targets per round run against cover three over the last 10 games carolina also gave up the eighth most receiving

43:57arts per game to tight ends last season by the way the last 10 games of the year Caleb Williams is ypa saw a 39% increase relative to all other shells against cover three and you got to love how been johnson basically he's looking to break the scoring record so he's going to keep his foot on the gas for as long as that is viable so we're we're loving it by the way i also think luther burden could do very well in this game don't feel good about roma doonze but i do think with kela Williams being a fairly inaccurate passer of the football he's going to be looking for a massive target and a breakout player for sure he even broke out last year colston loveland over 51.5 receiving yards good luck with all the plays we'll catch you on Monday for another edition of prop points right here on decent