Ryan Bridge: Is it too late for the Nats to roll Luxon?

The battle for the right and centre-right vote is the most interesting thing about the Election. 

Because it's the battle that will determine who wears the pants in the next Government. 

I'm still of the view that the Coalition will be re-elected. The make-up of the cabinet is what they're now fighting for. 

That's why over the past week we've seen the biggest dust ups between the three parties currently sitting on the Treasury benches. 

When was the last time you heard anything from or about the Māori Party? The left's been fascinated by TOP. 

In some ways this a function of the media oxygen. Fighting, albeit with gloves on, between coalition partners is newsworthy. 

Punch too hard and the thing could collapse before making through the next 90-odd days.

Punch too soft and you might not make it out the other side of November 7th. 

The right is battling for the same group of voters. 

Luxon ruling out TOP was an attempt to pull some formerly blue votes back to the mothership. But their polling is still at a point where they would lose some big names —Goldsmith, Bishop— if things don't turn around. 

The fundamentals, i.e. the economy and how people feel about it, won't change dramatically in the next few months, so this is now a battle of wills. 

Who has the stamina and discipline not to blow it and go of course on the campaign?

Will the Nats pull a Hail Mary-Jacinda move and roll Luxon, for fear his foot-in-mouth disease strikes again and they lose even more of the soft centre? 

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