S2025 Ep254: Will 2.4% Inflation Finally Trigger Rate Cuts?

Hey folks, Dan Frio here with your real estate news for March 11th, 2026.

High five.

The reason why I'm high five in here is I said if the inflation number, the CPI came

in better than expected, or at point, I'd high five yet, because I thought it would

come in harder than expected.

So what we're going to talk about today in today's news, consumer inflation only rose

2.4%, actually much lower than where it was actually in a build around two.

So is this enough to actually push the federal reserve to cut rates?

Well, if you're watching this video, you're most likely homeowner home buyer tracking

these things.

Well, folks, my name is Dan Frio.

I'm the host of the rate update.

I'm also a federally licensed mortgage loan officer.

That means I'm licensed in all 50 states.

As well as Puerto Rico, my slogan is one application, one credit pull.

I'm going to compare your loan to over 30 different lenders.

How?

I'll tell you that at the end of this year here for these.

So let's get over to it.

We got good news on inflation today.

Consumer inflation only rose 2.4%.

OK, so that's great news.

And I'm going to get to the data here in a second.

But I want you guys to understand a bunch of pieces about inflation.

One, there's different inflation rates.

OK, the federal reserve, they watch the PCE, the personal consumption expenditure.

That focuses more weight on health care.

So we're probably going to see that going up because you know what health care costs

are doing.

But the CPI, the consumer inflation number, the one that I follow and probably you follow,

it puts more weight on energy and housing, like where we live and how we get to where

we work.

So that's what we're going to look at in today's video.

We're going to take a little bit of a dive into that.

And then I'm going to show you guys where I want your opinions based on the inflation

number that's coming in.

I'm going to give you actually what it's done over the past year.

And I'm going to show you how inflation, you're trying to see, OK, is prices at stakes

and chicken?

Is it going to come down?

No, it's not going to come down.

That's not how inflation works when it starts to slow down.

So let's go over and figure out what inflation is going to do.

What's that?

Where is that going to send the markets?

What's it going to do with the bond market?

And then ultimately, what's it going to do for these things over through here?

So let's get to it.

The big piece of the puzzle today is the CPI consumer inflation.

Well, let's get to the economic calendar so I can kind of take a dive into this.

So I can give you all the information you need.

And I don't want you to say, OK, Dan, you talk me into buying a house or you talk me

into refinancing.

You guys make your own decisions.

My channel here is what I want to make it a little bit different.

I want to give you the tools and all the information you need.

And then you make the decision.

If you decide to buy a house, I'd love to help you.

If you decide to maybe refinance is a good idea, I'd love to help you.

If not, you think I'm crazy?

Well, watch the video.

Maybe you can learn some economics.

So here's what we got today.

We got consumer inflation, the CPI.

Well, we got core.

That means it strips out food and energy and that kind of stayed steady.

And I thought this might stay steady or go up a little bit.

I actually thought it would go up just a tad because of the January effect.

But then I'm like, OK, oil was at like $60, $65 a barrel.

So OK, so I was kind of a little bit off on that because I thought it might come in a

little inflated.

That's why you got the high five.

Then you look at the core CPI.

This is your year.

Now, this is kind of what we want to look at.

2.5 previously.

OK, it was expected to come in at 2.5.

It came in at 2.5.

And they might be saying, OK, everything's still way too expensive.

Let's get down through here and let's look at where it's been since basically August

of last year.

So August of last year, we had the inflation number at around 3.1, then the September,

October, then December went down.

Look where we are now.

So we're what, 60 basis points off of where we were.

It's a good start.

They want this number at 2.

We're not there yet.

Let's go down to the next piece of this puzzle is this CPI.

The CPI has everything in it, food, energy, the whole ball of wax.

OK, this one, I'm like, OK, this one's got to go up.

So last reading was point 2.

They said we'd go up to point 3.

I'm like, OK, don't be surprised if it goes to point 3.

Point 4, it stayed at point 3.

I'm cool with that.

Then you get to year over year.

And here's where people are saying, OK, everything is still way too expensive.

Again, things aren't going to get cheaper.

The cost acceleration is just much, much, much slowing down.

OK, so here's what we had.

Last reading year over year was 2.4.

I was like, for sure this is going to go to 2.5, maybe 2.6.

I was wrong.

It stayed steady at 2.4.

But the good news behind this as well is, let's

look at where we were going to back to last year.

We're at 3%.

OK, 3%.

This is where we want all these numbers at like 2.

Where are we now?

And we're at 2.4.

And the lowest that we've been since last May, when we had that liberation piece of what

happened last May.

But now we're almost back to where we were.

So if you look at consumer inflation, prices are still crazy high.

But the acceleration is really starting to slow down.

Now what we're going to focus in on now

is other pieces of the puzzle.

The other thing is, what is the jobs market doing?

Now, we had this anomaly last Friday.

I remember last Friday on our report, check it out a bit through here.

I have over 7,000 videos down there.

But we had this jobs report that came in.

And there was 93,000 job losses.

And we're like, what the heck just happened?

I even looked at ADP payroll numbers, and I don't like those.

And they even said the jobs market is adding employment.

Then you look at last week's initial jobless claims and continued claims, no spikes.

And I'm like, OK, where's these numbers going?

So now I really want to look at this week's numbers.

OK, Thursday, we're going to get continued jobless claims and initial jobless claims.

So if there's no spike in these, and there's no huge spike in continued jobless claims,

then that last reading we had last week, the 97,000 people just vanished.

I'm going to just put an x through that and just keep moving on.

So then I'm going to say, OK, the jobs market maybe isn't so bad.

But then on Friday, here's what we're going to get.

Remember, we looked at this with the Federal Reserve monitors right through here.

They monitor the PCE, well, good news for this week.

We're going to get that on Friday.

So we're going to get the PCE, what's this going to come in at?

We got the core PCE, and again, month over month, year over year on the core.

Then we have the core, this is going to know what's this core PCE for Q4, and it'll give

us a whole big list, longer list of things.

And then the GDP.

And it's filling in all the gaps for the rest of this.

So about the rest of this week, we're going to fill in every one of these gaps.

And then on Friday, we'll have a live event.

I'll give you my expectations what the Fed is going to do next week.

But let me know what you guys think down below.

So let's go to the rest of these things.

If you go over to here, the Fed watch tool now, it's just telling us.

So now what you got to think is the jobs market isn't so bad.

We have inflation at the PCE that they monitor at like 3%.

So the Federal Reserve, I'm saying they're not going to cut.

The Federal Reserve's telling us what they're going to do yesterday.

It was 97.3, it was getting a little bit better.

What's it going to tell us today with this jobs report, 99.3% chance, they are not cutting

rate.

So there is no chance the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates at this meeting.

There is no chance they're going to cut at the next meeting.

There's even a 61% chance they're not going to cut in June.

And in June, we're actually going to have a Fed appointee, the head of the Fed, a new

one appointed by President Trump.

So now what are they going to do in June?

Talk about that closer to June as we get.

So now let's get over to what the bond market does.

So what I follow each day, because I'm a mortgage advisor, is I follow the mortgage bond.

Okay, so here's what we're saying.

And all you have to understand is this bond up through here, it says MBS.

That means mortgage bond.

If the price or the number is green, that means rates are good.

Green is good, red is bad.

Well, the number up there being zero, that's not good.

So if green, if the number goes up, the bigger the number up, the bigger or the lower

the rates are coming.

Same thing with the opposite direction.

But here's, here's kind of the question mark I had.

Here's a two-day chart.

This is crazy.

Okay, so we started yesterday here, then went all up to here, then we came down here.

So yesterday we kind of closed through here, and the prices are up.

That means rates are coming down.

But it didn't move that much, I didn't think.

So I missed this one yesterday, folks, but so we have rates now teetering back down to

almost that 5.99 rate.

So here's what my expectations are.

If you're watching this and you're like, Dan, where are rates going to go from here?

Here's my thoughts.

Based on all this and what the Federal Reserve is going to do, nothing's really going to happen

over here.

It's going to have some volatility.

The volatility is going to range from 5.875 to 6.25.

Right around 6, that's the honey hole.

So if you're a homeowner out there and your rates over 7, reach out to us.

I'd love to help you refinance.

If you're out there trying to buy, I don't think you should be really worried about the spring

season, the summer season, and the fall.

It shouldn't really go up from here.

I don't think there's a 100% chance the Fed is not going to raise rates.

We're just trying to focus in on what they're going to do next with the rates.

So now let's get over to the stock market.

How's the stock market fairing to this?

Well, a lot of this stuff has to do with oil right through here.

Now you're seeing oil spike once again, it's up 5%.

There was some bombings and I think one of the couple tankers did get to hit in the

straight of Hormuz.

This is going to be volatility all over the map.

To watch oil, and that's going to show you the direction of where this market's going,

interest rates, and even the stock market through here.

So the volatility in the Middle East will concern, have concerns over through here.

But the good news usually with stocks, if you usually have a pullback in stocks, means

they take money out of stocks, the usually means it moves over to bonds.

But that's not happening right now because bond prices or yields are going up.

That's not good news.

And stock prices are going down.

That's not good news.

People are just moving their money back and forth in the cash.

I think that's really what's going on because they're like, I don't want to get into the

bond market because a lot of volatility there and stocks right now, I'm just jumping in

and out.

But you guys know, I'm a trader, so I'm a long-term investor.

A lot of this doesn't bother me.

So the last thing I want to give you guys is, and I apologize for this, each one of these

are a dollar.

I'm trying to figure out how to make these free.

Here's what happened is I created some financial tools for you guys.

If you're looking to figure out, should I refinance?

What's the break-even point?

What mortgage program do I fit into?

I created this.

I've been doing this for over 35 years.

I'm like, there is no tools out there that help me, you, the realtors out there, the loan

officers, even the consumer out there.

So I made all these tools for you and I was giving them away for free on a system called

Gumroad.

I had 50, 100 people go there a day and I would get like one or two people that would

download the videos or the calculators because it was too darn hard.

So I switched it over to this store right through here so it should be really simple to

get anything you want.

I would suggest that I went up through there.

You get everything including that package.

I'll actually change it to a dollar today.

So you can get, oh, I think there's 10 calculators here and they are a range of things that

I actually customized myself.

I truly did make those things.

So last but not least, what's going to go on these things today?

I think rates are going to be flat.

I think the markets are going to be just completely volatile on the middle east.

To watch oil, watch the tankers, watch this straight of her mues because those are all

going to dictate what goes on with all these over the next few days.

So folks, my name is Dan Frio.

I'm the host of the rate update.

I'm also a loan officer license and all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico.

If you need some help with the mortgage, you're home owner, but your mortgage information

ran up through there.

It's called ratewatch 2.1.

Here's what I want to know.

What rate you'd like to at least look at the numbers to refinance and have a much of

a monthly savings would you want.

You can actually put both of those in there.

If you have a rate quote from a different bank, here's what we could do for you.

I'm set at my bank.

We're set up with over 30 other lenders.

Why?

Because we know your struggle.

When you're out there trying to get a mortgage, you're going to apply there, there, there,

they're going to pull your credit, ruin your credit.

They're going to get back with you.

All these offers, you're going to sit there and say, now what?

What if you can work with me?

We're going to compare your loan with over 30 different lenders and you'll work with me

and my team during this whole process.

So put in your loan estimate right up through there or figure out one of these links

through here or reach out to us.

You schedule a consultation or give us a call.

We'd love to work with you and making sure you're pre-approved if you're looking to buy

or if you're looking to refinance.

Is this the right time?

Does the numbers make sense?

We can customize a loan program just for you.

So that's it for today folks, but mortgage rates, they should be steady.

The bond market right now, if we go over to that, if I can find this darn thing, the bond

market is up three ticks for today.

So that means mortgage rates aren't really going to do anything, but it's green.

That's good news and other than that, please subscribe over there.

If you want to check out and see what happens each day with these things over here and hopefully

by the end of each video, you understand a little bit more of what's going on with these

and the wise behind it.

Thanks for watching folks.

Have a great day.

God bless you.

Be safe out there and die.

We'll see you tomorrow morning at the opening bell and figure out what's going on with

these once again and give you my expectations and the wise behind it.

Take care.

Have a great day.

See you tomorrow.

Bye.