Soulless Transaction Robots

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1:00Calls football is back. So Hilton called to me the superstition concierge to make your fan rituals a reality. Need a room to match your lucky number? We got you. Want to make sure our team doesn't wash your lucky jersey? Oho, that smells lucky. Hilton's unmatched hospitality can keep up with any superstition. Even a marching bandwinkup call at 555 and 55 seconds. Hit it! When you need a team that will do whatever it takes on game day, it matters where you stay. Hilton, for this day. This episode is brought to you by PayPal. You know how a mom's bag has everything? Sunscreen, snacks, a stapler, the new PayPal app is like that, but for your money. Shop, pay, manage your account, and earn rewards all in one place. And with purchase protection on eligible items, biometric security and pass keys, you're protected at every step. Download the new PayPal app to get started. See PayPal.com slash protection terms. This message is brought to you by Apple Card.

2:02With Apple Card, you earn unlimited daily cashback on everyday purchases, like groceries, merch, or tickets to the game. Plus, it can be used anywhere MasterCard is accepted. No matter your team, no matter where you shop, Apple Card is here to help you tackle game day. Apply in the wallet app on your iPhone today. Subject to credit approval. Apple Card is issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City branch, terms and more at Applecard.com. The comments made by me now has to know, made by him and him and himself and nobody else, and not indicative of basketball, a little modality time, have to throw Anthony Mase or any guest incorporated. Yes, we have news within 24 hours of this show. I'm so glad this happened before we taped this week. Doc Rivers is joining NBC Sports. And that kind of shocked me. It shocked me. Not going back to ESPN, huh? After he lit that bridge on fire and just watched the flames reach the sky.

3:04Turns out he's not. He is joining NBC Sports. Doc Rivers big summer for him. Hall of Fame. And then now joining the NBC family, I'm just happy for him. Kind of came out of the blue and here we are as training camps open. Doc Rivers joins a new team. Dr. Avastro, you never cease to amuse me, man. Came out of the blue. Yeah, you were shocked. Yeah, the signs were everywhere from the makers of the Doc Rivers Clippers decision tree. I bring you the Doc Rivers broadcasting tree. Here we go. Western number one. Did you play against me? Reggie Miller, Brad Dordy. If you asked welcome to NBC Sports question number two. Did you play for me? That coach you. Oh, we got Grant Hill. We got team Ag. We got Jamal Crawford. We got my guy Scalm. Welcome to NBC. Question number three. Did I eliminate you from the playoffs?

4:07Oh, we've got Carmelo with the nix. He got bumped up this corner when you in Orlando. He got bumped a into double qualified. They had Derek Fisher obviously with the Lakers in 2008. So welcome to NBC Sports and then the final question. Were you ever on my family phone plan? It's so welcome to NBC Sports. You know who that means is in line now, right? Yeah, Kelly. Please Chris Paul. Guys, come on. Think closer. Think more proximity. Not far away things. Mo that keel. Oh, I'm a video coordinator. Oh, you go get that NBC Sports call, buddy. I guarantee it. Wow. He's going to jump ship from X live. Hey, hey, Zach and Alexis to go join Doc. Hey, I've never had a video coordinator like him. I mean, he's one of a kind. Now what do you tell me? Never been on my family phone plan though. I don't know. My assignment. Uncover why the association inspires more conspiracy theories

5:11in volume and salience than any other US sport. Are you heard of your Luminati? The truth is out there. But so are lies. Your eyes can deceive you. Don't trust them. The NBA has always been controlled by about eight people. Denial is the most predictable of all human responses. If you're only using 10% of your brain, you don't even know that you're using 10% of your brain. The NBA, a Luminati. Of course, that's just coincidences. Why did they feel so contrived? The aluminum and not. Would you start to follow the money? And you don't know where the f*** is going to take you? It is unspoken. They have influence among other players. The NBA over the average. I don't have time for your convenient ignorance. Maybe I'm a kid's sparsest now as well. That's all it took. Oh, you got books, we got school. You saw a video on you. You did. My master. You've never used to learn. We had an ascertaining in the humanities. The NBA.

6:30This is basketball, Luminati. I am Tom Habersdrow. Dr. Tom Habersdrow, not to be confused with Doc Tom Habers. Dr. Rivers? Yeah. The reason why he's so good at finishing our senses, because he's a Pulitzer Prize winning podcaster, Amino Hassan. Also, Edward Maraward. Not Edward Maraward or the Maraward. It's Edward Maraward. That's right. And of course, last but not least, producer Anthony Mays. Ooh, he gets a title. Sure, I'm not least. Feels like least, but okay, thank you. Well, once you get your PhD in production, then you can join us on this year level of sophistication. And Luminati. Once I get on Doc Rivers' tree somehow. I mean, you're tall. I mean, that's a good start. Can't teach it. Can't teach it. So I've been told. I told the Andre Jordan, you can be the next Bill Russell. Speaking of Andre Jordan, we're going to talk about the cap crazy summer that we've experienced. It's the first day of fall.

7:30So we got to talk about all the stuff that happened in the summer. All the crazy as deals, the non-deals, Jalen Durham. We're going to talk about it with spottrack.com's Keith Smith. Spotrak? It is not spotrak. And we've got so many new monarchs to explain. I don't even know if that's the right little genetic tool that we're going to... John in the Monics. We got Keith Smith of the NBA Front Office Show, spottrack.com. Follow him at Keith Smith on Twitter. Awesome time with him as our true teller this week. Coming up right now. You all think I'm right. Well, I'm not late. And I'm going to stay right here and fight for this lost cause. Even if his wound gets filled with wires like this. And the tailors and all their armies come marching in the this place. Somebody'll listen to me. There's no better way to overpower a trickle of doubt than with a flood of naked truth.

8:31But the complexity and the gray line not in the truth. What you do with the truth once you have it. What is true and right is true and right for all. You and I both know that that's just not the truth. You can't handle the truth. To messy keeps mother. I'm here because in the end the truth is worth the risk. I think a little truth when people lose their minds. I'm a grown man, you can tell me the truth. Why is it people who want the truth? Never believe in what they hear. So you know what I'm going to do? I'm going to do something really outrageous. I'm going to tell the truth. All right, it's been a pretty active September here in the NBA and extension talk. This is the September open with a men Thompson getting five years, 208 million, Cedique Bay getting three years, 55 million, Kianta George getting about 158 million over five years. Pelarcin getting four years, 60 million, and a Sar Thompson five years, 155 million. So the Thompson brothers come binding for extensions worth

9:33about $350 million. Keith, one name we haven't mentioned there is Jalen Duren. Not signed to an extension as of Tuesday afternoon that we're taping this and we could get breaking news that he comes to an agreement. But as of this week, Shomshrani already has been saying Keith that they've increased the offer to 200 million to Duren and that they've added this weight clause to Jalen Duren, which Sam Amick and the athletic have now reported that yes, they've added a clause, weight clause, but it's not in writing. So I don't know what that's supposed to mean, but coming off a postseason in which he saw his value around the league crater. It's it is kind of a stunning development. He's eligible for $287 million. Keith, five years maximum extension. He's a restrictive free agent and he is basically saying give me my money.

10:38I'm an all NBA player. I'm 22 years old. I was an all star this season. I feel like I deserve a 22 year old on an all NBA team. That seems like a max salary opportunity and they're saying we think you're much less than that. Keith, I'll start here. Are you? Is it really the case that maybe he cost himself $90 million in extent, in potential extension money by playing this postseason? Like it was that was the postseason that bad or do you think it was just he's not he was never that kind of max salary guy even before the playoffs and this is where the market is. Yeah, and at the expense of being called a fence rider, I think the answer is both. I don't think the playoffs were that bad. Really, but I do and I also don't think he was ever going to be someone who was going to be a 30% of the cap max guy. Teams have gotten so cautious. It was a believe it was Brian Wittenhorse who coined the term the fun max back in the day and that was in the reason why

11:42I was right. Everybody everybody got one right? It was like, yeah, 25% of the cap. No problem. We'll just give that out. We'll figure it out. Now what teams have done, especially if they have two or three or more guys that are going to be in that range, they've gotten really cautious. They're not just giving those out anymore. We're on the eve of training camps opening up around the league and we're still sitting here with only by a handful of this year's rookie group that's eligible to extend, have extended and that's kind of an odd place to be. Normally, where five, six, seven guys in and only one got a max and that was Wembee and Wembee didn't even do the full max language that he could have. We're just in a very different world now with those things and I think with the pistons, I think there are concerns of, all right, is Gern's playoff production is that more real or was he was pretty good the year before in the series against the Nix. So I maybe just had a down playoffs. So who knows? So they get a fact to that end and then Cades already on a max and then they had to give us our Thompson a new contract. I think what

12:45they're trying to avoid is turning into what like the Orlando Magic have become, which is a whole bunch of guys on a max and now they're just kind of stuck and it's where where do they go from year. Today's episode, I'll be playing League of Chill. And so keep isn't isn't a big part of this. The idea that the rest of the league also doesn't look at Jalen Dern as that kind of player because if there was significant interests from somewhere else, the pistons would be would move to either respond match or or you know, should they get off the pot basically. So part of this isn't just the pistons appraisal of Dern. Part of this is the League of Prasal of Dern as a player outside of maybe the Sacramento Kings. I like it sounds like there may be a property. So yeah, that's and you know that that's the same right? It only takes one a hold to screw up the whole thing for for everybody. So so we're in a place with with

13:48Dern where the challenges now the pistons have said we have no interest in doing a sign-in trade that involves us taking on subonises contract. And I I think they're probably right to to make that decision that doesn't seem like you would fit with where they're trying to go and this is coming from someone who's been more a subonist defender. I think the most have been. But I think that's kind of what we're down to now if Dern does do what he says he's willing to do which is on the qualifying after and then going on restricted for agency a year from now, maybe the market does open up more and then the pistons have no recourse to just keep them. They can't do that. So really we're down to if he wants to go somewhere else for any kind of money that Detroit won't immediately match. It's got to be through a sign-in trade. I think Detroit has been very clear everyone I've talked to have said they're really like, again, unless you're going to get silly with what you're going to send us, we're not open to a sign-in trade where we we would rather just keep them ourselves

14:49and go from there. But I think to your point, I mean that is true because we didn't see teams coming right out of the woodwork. They want a free agency saying, you know what they have like the Lakers could have. They have they want with Walker Kessler and they could have easily said, you know what let's throw that exact same money or more at Jalen Dern and force the pistons to match an offer sheet and then we can move on. Now some maybe they were decided, hey we don't want to miss out on Kessler too and then not have a center. So let's just go that direction but they could have done that because they went and spent a lot of money on a player in a very similar situation to Dern as far as being restricted in a center. So yeah, but no, no one was jumping right out there except for the Kings and that was pretty clear. That wasn't going to be a thing back in June and July and it's no no closer to being a thing here three months later. Yeah, it seems like there's a $200 million landmark here in the offer from the Detroit pistons because of some of the cat math that someone pointed out that if he takes the qualifying offer, the most he can make in

15:53unrestricted free agency next summer is right around to right under $200 million. So if I'm wrong on that math, correct me, please Keith, but do you see it as a landmark kind of like, hey, if you want to be here in Detroit, we're literally offering more money right now than anybody else can over the next five seasons down to the penny. And if you're not game for that, I don't know what to tell you, but it looks like the $9 million somewhere in there qualifying offer that he takes. There's some risk there, obviously, that the offers that he thinks he's going to be getting next summer. I look at Jonathan Camingo or Nurland's Noel who have come and thought, oh, I'm going to make way more money. And then it turns out these big men see their value across the league fizzle and they're not able to get that money that was previously offered. Now that might seem like something that turns the guy is I can get more money here Detroit, what by taking this offer over the length of this deal than anywhere else, but I can also seem saying, wait, when did

16:56when did my stock fall below the Thompson Twins or at least I'm in Thompson is that 208 and I'm sitting here at 200. I feel like I should get more than that guy. Yeah, I think in some ways, Dorn and his reps are playing this correctly because by all all reporting from people that we know and trust has been the piston started out somewhere around the Alperin Schenguindeele, which I believe was like 5187. And then they maybe if there's even a little lower. And then Dorn was, I want it's always been interesting to me. I want more than 200. Well, more than 200 is there's a pretty big range there that he's eligible for is that you want 201 or do you want like 220? Like where where are we going on this? But it has been said he wants more than 200. Well, now it was what a couple of weeks ago, I think it was reported. Pissons have come up to 190. And that was where I kind of said, all right, if he's at more than 200, but it's really like just more in Europe, 190, just get it done. What are we doing? Just sign this. We're close enough there. No

18:01one's ever going to notice the difference in money at this level. But now the reporting is they're coming up closer to that 200 amount. And now now that's one we're going to eventually find out is, well, how much more than 200? Because if it if it was he wanted 201 and there at 200, well, then we're being stupid. Like, yeah, just get it done. So I really am I think the pissens are, what they're working against here is is the clock more than anything is far as you don't want when media day happens next week. Every question to every person who gets in front of a microphone. Hey, what about Jalen Dernan? They can come out. We've all been in these media days. They can come on say, Hey, here's our statement on Jalen Dern. None of us care. We're going to ask, hey, cutting him and you know, Thompson and everybody else, hey, do you guys need Jalen Dern? When are you going to get Jalen Dernan? Even if we know you're going to get, oh, we love him. He's our brother. We need him on the court. Big part of what we do. But you just hope it someone stumbles, right? Like in there. So I think that's the the challenge with this is the

19:04pissens. They just don't want to deal with that. Then you don't want to be dealing with it going into training camp. You don't have your starting center. You don't have resolution. So that's all they're working against. So the fact that they keep uping their offer tells me they know, hey, we got to get this guy signed because they think they're also looking around saying, all right, Paul reads nice and as much as they and everybody else types up Paul read. Paul reads nice is a 15 to 20 minute a night backup center. It's not nice if you got to start them for 30 minutes a night and then rely on like tolu Smith, who's a nice player on a two way contract and played his way out of the out of that status for 20 minutes a night as a backup. You really need to be in a position where you have something better for that team to be what they want to be. They were number one seed in the conference last year. They they've no intention of being worse. So so you can get that going on and then from Dernan's idea. I think he's looking around and saying, hey, wait a minute, Thompson twins haven't even touched all NBA. I made all NBA last year. Now I truly do believe he's not trying to get the 30% max anymore. I think you know, that ship has sailed. That's not happening.

20:06But I do think it is whatever north of 200 is. That's where he wants to be and now that's where it's going to have to land if he's back in Detroit. Into your point, Tom, what you asked about was, yeah, he nine million qualifying offer right now. Then he could sign a four year. It's 189 is what he could sign for. So in total, that'd be like five just under 200 million. So he's not it's not that far off. But you sign the qualifying offer. God forbid you get injured. You have a bad year, you have another bad playoffs, all of a sudden. Maybe that's not for 189. Maybe that's for 150 or even less. If that's how that goes, that's your danger. If you if you just think the qualifying offer. Yeah, or the money's not there. Like even you could even be healthy and get through the whole year. And then the way the market has been the last two off seasons, there isn't big, free agent money out there. I'll go further than the last few off seasons. I'm trying to think

21:08the number of guys who took it took took a qualifying offer and it all worked out at the end in terms of them getting their money. That list is not long. Like I'm thinking I think I remember Bang Gordon did it in Detroit, where he signed in Detroit, he took the qualifying offer in Chicago, who ends up in Detroit, like for 60 mail or something like that. I'm thinking Miles Bridges and obviously his case was a little different because he had a domestic violence issues and they kind of try to sweep that on the rug. I guess Quentin Grimes would be a modern. Uh, um, success story. Well, I mean, but like that, not a success story. That's what it looks like usually. Cam Thomas is what it usually looks like. And so, you know, I don't want to leap the conclusions, Keith, but I kind of feel like if you had to take the qualifying offer, already we know something has gone horribly wrong in your career, not like, oh, I'll bet on myself that that contact concept of betting on yourself is actually kind of a fallacy when you look at the history

22:13of people who have taken the qualifying offer. Yeah, without a doubt, he bet on himself last year. By not that that's when you bet on yourself. It's when you're initially eligible for the extension you bet on yourself by taking qualifying offer because to your point, way too many things can go wrong. And then the list of the guys under the last couple of CBAs that have done this is not Miles Bridges, DeGio Man, that was a completely different situation. We all know why that played out the way it played out. But it's, Nirlens Noel, Alex Land, Rodney Hood, Cam Thomas and Quentin Grimes. Those are the only guys. And none of those guys ended up landing like great contracts after that with the exception of Quentin Grimes, who got a pretty good deal from the Lakers this summer. He's kind of the winner of that group of getting a new deal. So a lot of those guys didn't get there. The only other guys that have signed or the only other players signed after that was Denzel Valentine

23:14signed his qualifying offer in a situation where I could tell you every cat person I talked to was like, why did they even tender the qualifying offer? What happened there? And he, and here's how I know he signed it almost immediately. He got it and then immediately signed it. So he knew too. Like, whoa, I'm going to lock in some money. That's it. Like nobody else. This just doesn't really work out for guys. So I think it's a, it's a red now to be fair. None of those players had been all NBA guys like Dernwals. So he isn't a little, he's been kind of uncharted territory here. But but yeah, I just, I would, it's, this is where like I said, I really want to know the pistons are really up around 200 now. How much more do you need to get this done? Because if I was advising him, there's just far too much risk that this all goes, goes wrong for you. Just get it done and we don't know how it works. Get it done. And if the relationship is ruined, ask for a trade in a year or two.

24:14We don't know how that plays out. If you were advising Dern, would you, would you pitch, hey, what if we signed a shorter deal that we opt out? So we'll be eligible for the 30% straight up in a couple of years? Yeah. I mean, I just don't know that that's where he's necessary going to be. In a couple of, now he is very young. So that is on his side. He was one of the youngest players in the league when he came in. He's still one of the younger restricted free agents we have at this point four years into a career. So that's definitely a way I would, I would probably be looking for more of a four year contract and then doing a five simply because five gives the team so much control. Like they've now got control for the next five years because he's, he's not going to get any kind of option. I can't imagine or anything like that unless this gets really in a kind of weird place that's unexpected. So I would, I know a couple of years ago, maybe do like a two year deal. My, my worry is we've seen things with centers. Unless you're the all NBA, true all NBA, and I'm not

25:21going to knock him here and does all NBA spot, but also got there because the handful of guys weren't eligible. And he was the last one in. So when, when you're talking, if you're talking, you'll get when be those guys, yeah, they didn't do whatever they want because the next contract is always going to be whatever they want it to be guy like during you do two years and then it's like they're not great seasons or the pistons pivot or another way. It's just sometimes it's hard for centers to get paid. So I, I would lock in the money. And like I said, and then if you, if you really hate the pistons organization, just ask for a trade somewhere down the line. Here's a report. Oh, thanks, Jane. I wish I could hire someone just like you. Try LinkedIn hiring, bro. It's more than a job board. It's like the recruiter you always wish you had. Hiring Pro uses real-time insights to match your role to LinkedIn's unique network of professionals and delivers a short list of best-fit candidates. You'll spend less time sorting applicants and more time talking to the right people. Let's do it. You're a replaceable, Jane, but another you would be great. Higher right the first time. Post your job for free on LinkedIn today at

26:23LinkedIn.com slash quality. Every game day you show up for your team. Now it's your time. Ask your prescriber about WeGovie, some Maglatide injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP one. Call 1-8334 WeGovie or visit WeGovie.com to view the Medication Guide and to learn more about WeGovie. Why wait? We go need. And matters where you stay. Hilton for the stay.

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28:51This year's 12 RFA's two-changed teams by a sign and trade. The most since 2021. Two signed off-sheets with new teams tied for most since 2018 and six agreed to multi-year deals with their prior teams. It's not unusual at this point in the offseason that a couple of negotiations remain ongoing. This is August 24th, 2026. What's the big deal guys? Everything's fine. Yeah. Keith, you wrote a very extensive response to this over at spottrack.com. Keith, I mean, did not do the nerd voice that he likes to do when he's patronizing some nerd people. So he could have done that. I'm not the nerd. I'm the league. Yeah. So Keith, you nerded out. I say that affectionately as someone who nerds out and does the research on these things. I leave it to the expert. Keith, when it comes to capology stuff

29:52and you broke it down, what was your first reaction to seeing that the NBA put out a capology statement? And then how did you feel about their research here? They're talking points on this. Yeah, my first reaction was, why are you doing this? Like, why are you reacting to people like me saying it's weird that free agents are sitting out there longer and longer? So what I did was I went back and looked at the last 10 years of research at free agent classes. I only focused on the first rounders because the second round picks in the undrafted guys, they work under a different set of rules than the first round guys do. And what we're really focused on is who are the first round guys that got extensions and whatever. 10 is it's a nice round number of years. It also gave us prior CBA plus this CBA gave us 300 players in the draft class. So what I found was 31% extended their contract before they even hit free agency. 20 players signed a new contract

30:55when they became restricted free agents. 28% never made it to the end of their rookie scale deal, which tells us roughly a year between a quarter and a third of players drafted in the first round. They don't even make it to the end of the real deal. So that's interesting. I know. Yeah. Yeah. Right. Like we're just in a spot. 20%. So now I had 20 more percent made it to the end of the deal, but didn't get a qualifying offer or it was withdrawn. So half of the players got to free agency and weren't even restricted free agents. And then two players, which at the time I wrote this word, Jayland Dernabennett, Mathurine, were both still restricted free agents. So one percent were still sitting out there. But really the thing I was trying to counter is like, do players really sit in free agency that long? Like how is this working out? And the reality is the league was kind of right. But a lot of these were more like you could explain why these guys

31:55were kind of still still out there. And the thing that to me really got us got me kind of going was in the last several years, we have seen guys. So we're not even going back that far. Laurie Marken and Colin Sexton, PJ Washington, Isaac, Acoro, all in success, success of years, 2021 through 2024, all signed late. And when I say late, I'm talking August or September. And yes, I did adjust for the COVID dates because we had some weird years in there. So I used to, I don't know, if you guys remember those awful COVID mapping tables I thought I was done with those things forever, but I went back and matched them up with the if it was the normal calendar. But then in the last two years, we've had Josh Gidey, Jonathan Caminga, Cam Thomas, Quentin Grimes, at last off season, then this off season we had Peyton Watson, Jalen Duran, Benedict Matherin, all kind of sitting out there in restrictive free agencies. So for me, it's the problem that is if the league says, yeah,

33:00over, you know, whatever time frame they picked, not a big deal. They, well, it kind of is becoming a big deal. We've got a lot of guys that are sitting there a lot later. That's eight, seven or eight players in the last couple of years. And it's up to about 10 players in our sample size over the years. So yeah, you could say it's one player per year, but it's more like seven in the last two years. Yeah, there seems to be a pretty clear power dynamic shift in the leverage between the restricted free agents themselves and the players. And so I wonder with Kianta George, for example, doesn't that seem like the type of player where the jazz might want to wait until he gets to restricted free agency or did that number surprise you or how did you feel about the Kianta George extension? I mean, if I get real nerdy, the only thing that surprised me out of the contract was that there's unlikely bonuses in there because those things had gone the way of the dinosaur because

34:02they cause problems with the aprons when you're trying to make trades because they count towards these apron, but not towards the salary with that, but at the risk of putting everybody to sleep, I'll move on. The number feels fair to me. Like that doesn't seem like a crazy number. I feel out there 31 and a half million feels about right for him. It's about 16% of the salary cap that he's getting and that's that's how I've started to really think more about these because the initial sticker shock can come in and you're like, whoa, but then when you really get into it, it's like, yeah, I guess it's really not that bad. That 31 million puts him in the like still in the lower half of point guards in the NBA and that's where I still I know he's going to kind of share just guard with Darren Peterson, but still, I think he's the most seems he'd be a point guard. So puts him in the lower half of annual salary for that. So that's you know, pretty good place. And I think for the jazz, what I think they're looking at is we can get a player who we like,

35:04who has developed quite well, who's played through a couple of the years where we pulled the rug out from under the team and said, sorry, I know we're competing for a play in spot, but too bad, we're just going to be bad now. And he's kind of come a long way. They can get him on a fair value contract knowing this summer, we may have and things will always change somewhere between seven and 10 teams with real actual meaningful cap space. And for a guy like Kionte George, if he puts together another year, now all of a sudden you got a team that's out there with like, hey, I don't know what else we're going to spend this on. Let's throw a big offer. She now the jazz are stuck with Kionte George potentially on a 25% of the cat max and Laurie marketing and Jaren Jackson Jr. And then you've got Peterson. I know people always think of crazy when I say this, but one by the time you're completing your first year, everybody's already starting to think a little bit about, or where are we going to accentuate down the line? Like that's what Utah is trying to try to balance out. So you could have waited on a guy like him, but I understand why they said,

36:05hey, let's get this done. And I think if you look at it compared to like like Star Thompson, they're kind of mirror images, right? Thompson's incredible on defense. George is really good offensive player. They're probably worth about the same. I think everybody pays for offense more than defense. So he gets a little bit more me. Maybe we'll see it might be exactly the same if those are all unlikely bonuses and they don't actually hit. But yeah, I it made sense to me why the jazz I acted the way they did and enacted now versus letting they run a restricted for agency. Do you know what the bonuses are? I don't. I have not seen that yet. I just know it's 500K a year. So the concept of context seems to be missing a lot from NBA reporting. Fans always say, fans are fans. Fans are dumb fans. They go, say, well, you paid how much for really, but, but I'm really surprised by how many writers, how many, you know, people who work in NBA media have lost

37:08side of the context. So I'll give you a great example. Pella Larson signed 60 mil four-year extension, which basically, it essence is going to be about mid-level. Yeah. Yeah. But if we said Pella Larson signs an extension for the mid-level, I think everyone says, oh, yeah, that sounds like a fair deal. But when you say 60 million, they're like, oh, I'm paying 15. So how surprised are you that buy and large NBA media still hasn't caught up to the concept of the numbers are so much bigger. So the things that we say are reasonable, those numbers have increased as well. Yeah. I think there's a few factors in this. I think one is some people just don't get it, right? It's, you know, the only math I want is points, rebounds and assists. Like I don't want to do other math. So that part, they're already like, this is crazy. And honestly, if that's how you want to cover the game, I have no problem with that, right? There's room for everybody in my, in my belief,

38:09they just didn't let's not comment on the things you don't understand. I don't get super deep into the advanced analytics because quite frankly, some of them, I don't understand. So you know what I don't do? I don't use them and I don't talk about them. So I'm just going to use them incorrectly. And I'm not not going to know what I talk about. So, so I separate that group. Oh, then, then I take the group that is just everything's always bad, right? Nothing's ever good. It's always terrible. And everybody's overpaid or everybody's underpaid. And I kind of, I shot a lot of people off. But I'm with you, there were a number of people in that contract, specifically, they were like, didn't they learn their lesson with Nicolay Yovic? Like they gave him a very similar deal and like, what happened? And there's a lot of like you said, there's no contacts in there. Like Nicolay Yovic signed that contract immediately went and played in, I think it was the World Cup or Qualifiers or maybe it was the Olympics. It was one of the events and got hurt. And there was never right. It hasn't been right since then. And in, in, when he's, but when he's played on the national team level, it's played

39:09great. And it looks really good. L. Larson killed it this summer. It looked really, really good. Had Sweden and it's we didn't have all teams in position to pull off an upset, which they didn't finish off. But he played great in those games. He's played really well for the heat. We also know no other context. The heat love may be more than anybody else to, hey, look at we draft and develop these guys. You know, look at us. We're going to pay them right. The guy that they develop and then turn into a hundred million dollar. Yeah, Matt Struse, Duncan Robinson. Like the list is long with these guys that they brought up through their way. He would heizmeth another one. Like, they love that. So they're, they're always going to kind of take care of those guys. So I think all around it's fine. But the bigger point is this is actually less than the non taxpayer mid-level. Yeah. Right now it'll be less than it next year, far less than it next year. If the cap does go up a little bit and by the end of it, we way less than what the mid-level could be. But yeah, for me, I think I'll have a little arson mid-level. Sure. Like let's, let's go. So yeah, that's,

40:13that's a very long answer to your simple question of, yeah, it does bother me that people jump all over this stuff because it's, I, in its funny because I find a lot of the same people who, who will buy the player driven talking points of everybody gets a max or a minimum now, which is also not true. But they, they, the same people buy into that then feed into it by saying every player is either a max player or they're a minimum player. And it's like, we can't, like, it can't be awful or like, then you're saying the teams are doing it right. It's got pick a lane and they argue that, that argument. This is great while you have on spot track. The percentage of the cap. Yes. Next to the salary figures. I remember a few years ago, no, like 20 years ago when Sabermetrix was taking off in baseball and they had war. When's above replacement and they'd say, hey, this guy is worth 7.34 wins last year. And people got so tired of like the analytics, the Sabermetrix. And suddenly the writers just started saying, this guy is a seven-win player. And just basically,

41:20as simplify it as possible is instead of just getting bogged down at decimal points, they would just say, this guy's a seven-win player. He's gonna, he's gonna improve your bottom line by seven wins. Or this guy's a two-win player. And I remember thinking at the time, oh, that's, that is a much simpler way to have a conversation about it. In Sabermetrix, they kind of realized that the, the wins above replacement formula was not exactly the most iron clad. And so when you say a player is a seven-win player, it actually be a 10 or a four-win player. But I always stuck in my mind that the way to label it is almost like, well, I think if we said, Pelowlarsons a 9% guy, people wouldn't be freaking out. But if you start saying he's worth 50 million, you're, oh my god, Pelowlarsons were a 60 million. And if you just say, ah, he's less, he's less than 10% of the cap, you're like, oh, okay. All right. Cool. Then we're good there. So thank you for your service listing out percentage of the cap on spot track. For every player, you have their salary and actual millions of

42:23dollars. But also what percentage of the cap that is for that particular season. So thank you, yeah. Well, that was a way we would hope people would start thinking of it differently. And that was, you know, especially when a map like summer league, and I'm talking with a lot of people in the league, it very quickly became apparent to me about four or five years ago. We're kind of coming out of the pandemic impacted seasons that everybody and we knew the new CBA was coming at the time. Everybody was like, we got to think differently about this. Can't just be the raw number anymore. But it is also like I try to be very conscious of, can I think get about myself when it's like, don't tell me what my tax rate is when I got to pay taxes. Tell me how much I owe you. That's all I want to know. Right. So like, I'm like, here I am making the argument against my own work because there are times and it's like, I just want to know what the dollars are. But why I argue with fans is when I'll get into it and even some of my bill or are brethren in the media is like, yeah, but the dollars are what

43:28matters. And I'm like, why you're not writing the check, nor are you asking it. That's the difference. There's nothing to do with that. If you are trying to decide, is this a bad contract? You should be thinking about what does that contract prevent you from doing? What will that contract cost you to trade it later? How much of the cap does that contract eat up? That's where you have to kind of go to. So that's the difference is right. I'm not one paying this. So I don't care if the guy makes you know, $50 million a year. It's got really nothing to do with me. What I care about is how does that work within the confines of building the rest of the roster around that player? That's what I want to focus on. And that's what I've tried to push and encourage people. The sticker shock is always going to be there. I get it. Sometimes it gets me to. But then when you just dig a little deep or put a little contact or like you said, just open up spot track and we'll have it up there just as quick as we can with a percent attached to it. Oh, Keith, now you're deep in my NBA

44:29shell bag, right? The number of times I have to hear players or player surrogates talk about the second apron is awful. And no one's getting paid anymore. And I'm like, no, actually, everyone's getting paid more than they've ever been paid before. The guys who are complaining are the guys on the outside looking at who didn't get paid, who didn't get anything. And to me, it's funny that when I hear people talk about the second apron again, buy and large through the media, it's spoken about as a negative. This thing is ruining basketball. And I'm looking at it is like, oh, yeah. Now we're the league finally got to a place where it says, you like your team? You really like your team? You like it that much? You like it that much? Did not have any of these other exit strategies. In case it doesn't go right. And buy and large,

45:30after a few years of teams like, yeah, we love our teams that much. We're realizing, oh, wait, this is a terrible mistake. And so now you have even the defending champion New York Knicks. I don't know if I love my team that much. We're going to pay Mitch and Robinson this much. I'm going to pay what a Landry shammett and those guys would have gotten in years past coming off of a championship. From your perspective, the second apron has been a success, a failure or just a kind of a. I think it's been mostly a success in accomplishing what the league in. I will say the majority of the owners wanted, which was we can't, I know he's going to go away for a year. We can't keep up with Steve Palmer. He could own seven teams if he wanted to. And, you know, turn turn turn, turn half the league into his own personal farm system. Like they realized the owners like they won't stop spending like some of these franchises and at the time, all this was coming. It was the the clippers, the warriors and the nets that everybody's like,

46:34how are we ever going to catch up? Like we can't catch up. And I think what the NBA is really locked into, which in Adam Silver himself said it is kind of more like the NFL in this sense of, it doesn't matter if you're located in the, you know, 50th ranked market in the league. If you run your business smart, you can win. Just look at the thunder, right? Not a not a big market. And they've really built a smart team. They've compiled all this stuff and really gone after it in a certain way. Now, someone argue, would they be able to pull that off with the new lottery rules? Maybe not, but I think those guys there are smart enough. They would have found a different path to that. But I think what the second apron is done is, yes, it's introduced some level of parody. It stopped some level of just pay everyone and we'll figure it all out. I think what the trade rules have done is we were running into a world where what teams we're going to do, we start paying guys simply to just become human trade exceptions. Because hey, I have no other way to get there. So let me pay this guy 30 million a year simply so I can trade him for

47:39$215 million dollars later. And yeah, I realized for a lot of people, I come off as a solace transaction robot, but I do realize that these are human beings putting on the uniforms and playing the game. And I do have to remind people my favorite thing about basketball is basketball. Like that's the thing I do love most. But those injuries behind you, those are just spreadsheets, right? Yeah, yeah, the dream team back there is, you know, I mean, it's team I grew up on. So no wonder I actually love the game most, but I do like, I don't, when I say that, I don't want turning guys into just trade exceptions, right? Like starting them into just math, like, like salary ballast. And I realized it's going to happen. And it happens to a lot of players. And also my ability to feel bad is countered when I realized, oh, on the first and 15th, they're cashing a million dollar. Boy, then I don't really care. You know, go, so wipe your tears with $100 bills. I don't care. But I, but just to finish this thought is, I think what it's done

48:41is by putting kind of these, these limiters on the teams, you've created a league where everybody says, oh, player movements been killed. No one has it. We just look at what just happened this summer. Y'all has changed teams and all bunch of, you know, star level guys change teams. I remember that first trade deadline. And I was there. It was a little like, man, I don't know if we're going to, you know, see this really play out the way we want. Like the trade rules are really restrictive now. And I go to my favorite movies is Jurassic Park, the original one. What do they say in that? Life finds a way. Life finds a way. Yeah. The NBA teams pay a lot of people pretty good money to figure this stuff out. And you know what they did? They figured it out. When it really came home for me shortly before the trade deadline, we were doing an event at Arizona State, a mock trade deadline event. Now, bunch of us had come in to help. We had a group of about 80 college kids make like 40 trades in the span of like five hours. Now, as I get fated,

49:42college in all legal trades too, because that's what I was there to help do is make sure they were all legal. As I go off, these kids can figure it out. The NBA front office is better be able to figure it out. So, so I think what we've changed is free agencies down. You know what, there's been other periods where free agency has been down before too. When the entire league has been capped out, and the only movement came through signage trades. I think it'll all swing back around. It's going to take the right mix of teams having a lot of cap space in the right, the right teams having cap space. It can't be your awful rebuilding teams that bear with me. And I don't really want to go there. Yeah. Oh, right. You look like I have in this summer. The Lakers had cap space. One of the Lakers who they signed a whole bunch of guys is that's what the Lakers do when the Lakers have cap space. You and with the right teams with cap space, it'll go. Last thing I'll say to you is I don't want to hear the next cry about the second apron yet. They could have paid guys and figured it out a year from now. You have kind of a year away where you're just going to be really expensive. So you should have been really expensive, but it is what it is.

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52:50Apple Card. With Apple Card you earn unlimited daily cashback on everyday purchases like groceries, merch or tickets to the game. Plus it can be used anywhere MasterCard is accepted. No matter your team, no matter where you shop, Apple Card is here to help you tackle game day. Apply in the wallet app on your iPhone today. Subject to credit approval. Apple Card is issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City branch terms and more at applecard.com. I'm already moved on. The next off season that comes off. This is the STR. What was it? The transaction robot? Yeah, the smallest transaction robot. Yeah, I've already started building

53:59stuff for the 2027 summer because that's the brain work. But Keith, I thought you were basketball. We're going to host this. You're the best ball to watch right now. That's why I'm doing it now. I'll stop in about a week when the preseason starts. But so summer 2027 or summer 2028, they're going to have more should have more than 100 million in cap space. One of those two so much. Here's the challenge though. Sounds awesome to say go nuclear. Just spend, outspend everybody. Let first summer, you can spend 100 million in cap space or more. Let's even say it's 120 whatever it is. You can spend all that. But then it's going to take a few years of incrementally added. We added a little bit of money in this trade. We added a little bit of money in this trade. We resigned to this guy. What I remind people of because I got asked this exact same question on a radio appearance a week ago and they said, was he just going to come back and sign everybody? It was like they can try but they're still going to be limited by the cap. At least initially,

55:03then they'll be limited by the aprons. And I said, and here's the other thing too is, you got to sign all the right somebody's because otherwise all you're doing is spending a whole bunch of guys for a team that's garbage and then like, well, then what are we doing? Like then, then, you know, if I'm a clipper, I'm going to be even more angry. I'm going to be like, wait, now, now I'm going to come back and watch a team that stinks. So that's why, you know, I really, like, I think they're going to attempt to continue to do what they do. But I think they're also going to be, that's going to take us a little bit to get back to that point and we're going to try to try to build it back up. But I expect whether it's this coming summer or the summer after, I expect them to start throwing some money around and start trying to get some guys because for them, it's like, hey, let's just find the next guys, right? And this time, we'll just try to do it either on the level or we'll be a lot smarter about how we cover our tracks. I don't know. I think they're, they probably be on the level. I don't think they're going to be able to pull off anything shady this time around. But I think it'll be, hey, let's just go sign a bunch of, bunch of guys and let's be players in the reality is the lakers aren't going to have that kind of

56:04cap space. And they're still in the clippers as much as everybody laughs at them about being the clippers and the little brothers. They're still in Los Angeles. And last they checked, you asked the league probably 70% of them would say, yeah, I'd like to play now like more than anywhere else in the country. Keith, I was going to ask about the trade machine. Sure. Scourge. Maybe. Scourge. Yeah. It's a part of the problem, Keith. Yeah, I agree. But here's the thing. I mean, we had to have a working trade machine. I could not take another, hey, here's so I'll just, I'm sure you guys have gone through this too. I don't evaluate people's fake trades, except for one time a year on our show NBA, front office show, when we ask for them and everybody who watches it knows, this is the one time we're going to evaluate your fake trades. Send them all in. We devote one episode to it and do it. Because I know what happens. Somebody sends me a fake trade. They post the screenshot. What do

57:06you think of this? Even if I answer on a very base level of, oh, yeah, this, that, I'm then going to get a hundred more of them. You can get upgraded too. You're going to like get the other. Yeah. And then so I was quite frankly, I was tired of ESPN's broken trade machine. It didn't work right. There was a time when, and I'll call it out, Bill Simmons posted a trade and said, who says this trade doesn't work? It was between the Celtics and the Clippers. And I, I have to be intact in about 50 times. I replied and said, the league says it doesn't work because it's illegal. So it doesn't work. Use the use this trade machine and put the link to ours. And we went there and I, I, I'm very biased. I believe we have the best trade machine that's available because I can tell you two things. It works with the rules the correct way. It for some reason, something doesn't work. I'm pretty available. My email is right in my Twitter bio. Just shoot me an email and I'll look at it. If it's someone

58:07in the media and we follow each other, shoot me a DM and I'll look into it. We try to fix it just as quick as we can. Sometimes stuff happens, right? It's a piece of code that does this stuff. Sometimes there's things we, we missed or we have to fix, but I'll also tell you the salaries is that are as accurate as you're going to find in there. There's no 15.2 million. And that's what people throw into a trade and then they, then you find out, well, they're only a hundred thousand short. Yeah, a hundred thousand short is short. It doesn't work. So that's it. But yeah, I do recognize it. It helps feed the people who are just trades, trades, trades. It's funny because I just had somebody literally five minutes before he came on. Simeon Oden said, so here's the problem with your trade machine. Like, you can't trade anybody right now. There's no one's eligible until after December 15th, completely missing. There's little toggle at the top where you can turn that off. Or you can turn it to the trade, trade deadline, which would set it as of that season's trade deadline. So it's a great, it's a great little toggle because I've,

59:09I've in my head been like, I just want to fast forward the trade machine to such and such date. And there is an ability to do that. Even in season, you can flip it from this season to next season. And I just want to say on behalf of everyone who has to work these trade columns and have to come up with these trade ideas. Thank you, Keith for not only building this, but tending to it. I've reached out and like, Hey, I don't understand this Oklahoma city trade pick swap thing. And you have walked me through it and said, this is how it works. And this is why it reflects that on the site. So thank you for that. And don't let a mean bring you down. You're just trying to, I don't know who says no. And the trade machine fine. The trade machine just doing a service to the community. He's doing a service. Yes. But that service gets more issues. So now instead of being able to say that just doesn't work, the trade does work. Now I have to answer why the spurs aren't

1:00:13going to trade victory with Minyama, like to the next or whatever dome kind of scenario people will come up with. Keith, I have in front of me a list of semi rapid fire questions I have for you here. Sure. So number one, the most overrated asset in basketball right now is blank. The thunder high draft picks people are still thinking it's what it was a few years back. It's not anymore. Most of the good valuable extra draft picks they had. I have already paid off. They've got like one more clipper spec coming and then that's it. The most underrated asset right now is the Charlotte Hornets, more chest of draft picks. There you have, I don't know how many second-rounders it is now, but it's like a million. And the thing that second-rounders can become is when they're like, oh, you need four, you need five, you need seven. Great. Here you go. Or they always will have

1:01:15something extra to just throw on to a trade. The most creative player contract structure you've seen. I'll go back to not his current contract, the prior one with Josh Hart's contract, where what they did when they did that extension on the final season, they gave him a player option on top of a non-guaranteed year, which was in effect even though now mutual options have actually come back into play this off season. It functioned as a mutual option where he could pick up that option, he could opt out, but if he picked it up and they didn't want him, they could have could have got rid of it. Now, one away because he extended after, but at the time that was a really creative way to kind of give both sides some agency. The worst contract faux pas you've seen. I mean, this summer, the giving Deandre Jordan a two year minimum deal just did make a whole lot

1:02:15of sense. They don't have a cap guy, right? This isn't even a new rule. The whole. If you sign up for one year, the minimum is come to show up as a second year player. The league kicks in a bunch of cash for you. You don't have to worry about it. You give him a two year deal. It's whatever his years of his services and you're on the hook for every last dollar of it and it appears as such on the books. The only way that gets done that way is because you just don't understand the cap, right? Yeah, something I really want to know the real story behind that one and I I've asked and nobody answered. I will, but the second contender for that is the Gary Trent contract because it's not only is it supposedly invested being investigated, but I literally will tell you every conversation I had with it with someone after that came out at summer league and a lot of us knew that was probably coming anyway started out with that's tampering, right? Like that's illegal. They circumvented the

1:03:16cap and this and that by the end of the conversation. Every person said, well, what are they going to punish them with? I guess they just they already got to keep the contracts. All right. The Oh, draft pick protections are fill in the blank. We've gotten we've gone too far with them. There's too too much with pick protections and swaps and not all ever want to make it harder for teams to make trades. It's just get when when I have to sit down and I have to open a new tab in my spreadsheet to figure out which pick goes where from a seven or eight way swap. It's it's too much. We've gone too far especially in the second round. Can we can we agree that we should have draft pick power ratings? Like just like is this a real pick? No, like like when someone says, oh, they have the 31 pick. And I'm like, well, it's not a real pick. So we should have them graded, right? Like S tier like moody and we should have we should have these an S&P or some some

1:04:19reading agency. Percentive of a pick. Percentive of a pick. Percentage of the care. So it is just 60% of a pick. Yeah. Sorry, I didn't know up the rapid fire. I knew I just wanted to go. I just didn't I always tell people with those ones. If you see top 55, it's not real. And if it is real, the team doesn't care because they were one of the best five teams in the league. So all right. Last one, the CBA change Keith Smith would make if he had unilateral power. I would allow teams on the 10 year of service maximum. So the 35% max money does not change, but you reverse the cap hits. So the highest cap hit comes first and it goes down year over year. So as a player ages, a lot of those contracts end up bad by the end, especially if they're starting out 60 plus million with 8% raises. By the time you get to the end of the contract, it doesn't look very good. Some of those guys would look a lot better if you started high and

1:05:24went money doesn't change to the player. And I would even allow it to be your your cap hit is still reflective of the standard structure, but the actual payment to the player is reversed. So it doesn't be that bad or maybe you could do a where you reverse the cap hits. I would prefer to reverse the cap hits too. So they take up less percent of the cap later in the day. Who would be against that? Who would like whether labor or management. Yeah, I'm asked in the only answer I've gotten back beyond like, that's kind of interesting is they don't they they're already conscious of anytime money is reflected differently in the cap versus what the player is being paid. That's the only time when it gets squarely for them, but that's something I think would be a very simple change you could make. And I think that actually benefits everybody because if I know, yeah, I'm not going to be paying this guy when he's 37 years old, we're approaching $100 million a year, 100 is early and then it

1:06:31goes down to 80 or whatever that we're work out to. Despite what I do, I can't do math that good in my head on the fly. It is I think that would make a lot of sense. Our esteemed beloved solace transaction robot. Keith Smith, thank you so much. I was trying to think soulful, I mean, help me out here. Word that starts with T sent an M for basketball, respecter. The reason I think too much moving on the court anymore. You'd still get a spot up jumper though. We we hear at basketball, Luminati, we respect the trade machine. It's at spot track dot com. Go check all your all your work at spot track dot com. One of the best follows. You can have what what I mean, you're the last one. I remembered. I remembered is it's spot track or spot track? It's spot track. So NBA people in the only reason I

1:07:34think this happens because I've never got there is because of Eric's full. Everybody in the NBA goes to to to to Spotrack. Any other sport, it's usually spot track, but it's like if you took the word spot and track and smushed them together, it's spot track. It's the way I was explained it's the spot to track. I'm trying to track everything. Yeah, but it's in and I've just shut out to to my guy scoffer is tireless work on the trade machine because I can be completely completely honest. I message him and say, Hey, the trade machine needs to do this. And then he says, okay, I will make it do that. And then he's he's just a he's a wizard. He is the one. A lot of people ask us like, Hey, can you guys slow down like, especially a trade deadline day because I wanted to see what it looks like? You've already processed it and we it's just it can't make people happy. Do you have to understand Keith? There's no appeasing people. Once you get it updated in real time, people,

1:08:36but I like it when it was slow. Yeah, it's tough. And it's just the things who is that those times a year, if you don't, you fall behind and you're going to you're going to be catching up at midnight and later and trying to figure it all out. But he's an absolute wizard. It's a small but mighty team we have. And if people are watching listening that are interested in the other sports, we've we've got them all. You know, team sports, individual sports, they're they're all on there. It's it's all there. I you know, I continually say I think it's the best publicly available salary earnings site anywhere in the world that you can get. I feel very strongly about that with the NBA that's quite frankly at times caused this issues. But it's you know, we believe in the value of having it out there for folks and trying to make everybody at least smarter fans about that aspect of the game. And also the NBA front office show. So go check out Keith Smith. Thank you so much and give us a thank you for the shout out for Scott Scott track. But for my

1:09:37doing the trade machine, the real work that doesn't get enough shout out. So thank you Keith for joining us this week. And I don't think Jalen Nearn signed. So I think that we made it through a show without breaking news or an emergency pie. It usually happens right after we hit end record. That's difficult. These things work. Absolutely. Thanks so much for having me. You

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1:12:48Brian here.