Students, backpackers migration hit; BHP’s carbon backdown; shoplifting surges

0:00A vacation rental shouldn't come with surprises. It should come with VerboCare and 24-7 life support. If the hot tub's broken, that's a VerboCare thing. If my teenager starts calling me Leslie, that's a family thing Leslie. VerboCare and 24-7 life support. If you know, you're Verbo. Terms apply. See Verbo.com slash trust for details. Welcome to Fear and Grade, business news you can use. Today, the Albanese government unveils its new migration policy, clamping down on students and backpackers. BHP concedes its carbon emissions will stay higher for longer because electric trucks aren't good enough. And Japan hits a milestone 100,000 people over the age of 100 years. Plus, the IMF tells Australian governments to rein in spending and shoplifting surges up and down the East Coast. It is Friday the 18th of September, 2026. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aelmer. Good morning, Michael. Sean, the main story this morning is a pretty meaty one. The government wants to impose restrictions on working holiday visas

1:03by introducing a ballot system for anyone wanting to stay longer than a year and making all applicants wait three months for approvals with immigration, it has to say the hottest political issue at the moment. Mostly because it's where one nation actually writes best among voters. Labor yesterday announced, really, it's quite a responsive immigration policy responding to some of those criticisms, favoring certain skills and almost biasing away from students and backpackers. Yeah, I think that's right. Immigration Minister Tony Burke wants to prioritize school visa applications in the fields of healthcare, construction, education, law, defense, resources, agriculture, aquaculture, and fishing. Burke is also making it harder for students to apply for another visa when their original one expires, including removing work rights for those refused in asylum application and then granted a bridging visa while they appeal.

2:04They're claiming down on the ability of those in student visas to bring in family members. The government will also introduce a no further stay condition on all visitor visas to ensure they are used only by genuine visitors and not as a pathway to extending a stay in Australia. There'll also be tougher compliance measures to force out the estimated 80,000 visa overstayers who in the country legally. Let's talk about the politics of this because I mean, this is such a hot political issue right now. There are currently three million people in Australia on temporary visas, which is a million more than when Labor came to office in 2022. Figures released yesterday show that net overseas migration has fallen from 301,000 to 292,000 in the year to the end of March. That is the lowest since June 2022. And it actually puts it on track to reach the budget target of 295,000. Burke's measure.

3:06The measures that he announced yesterday aimed to reduce that number to 245,000. This financial year into 225,000 by 2028. Lot of numbers there, but they were the targets in the most recent federal budget. But one nation wants a net overseas migration figure of 130,000. And the coalition says the number should be linked to housing availability, which experts say would be 170,000 at most. So there's a lot of very conflicting views on this. Poll say that one nation's strongest selling point is its migration policy. So you can see why this is really setting the tone for the conversation. Yeah, I mean, you alluded to beginning when we were talking about this. Burke said that one nation didn't sway their policy, but obviously it's way their policy. They're fighting hard on this issue. It's a much harder issue for the coalition than labor, though.

4:07And the coalition hasn't actually released its policy. Opposition leader Angus Talley yesterday said it would be the coalition will be guided by the principle that the numbers are too high and standards are too low, but we don't really know what that means. Labor is flagging the changes as a way of boosting housing supply, even though in the same birthday book says, you know, migration doesn't cause housing shortages. Ironically, the geographies at the new policies could hit hardest from all parties is basically the conservative heartland, the one nation heartland, rural and regional Australia. Same for the national party. They rely on backpakers, particularly during harvest, the National Farmers Federation was out shouting from the rooftops yesterday complaining about it. The fact that, I mean, if you ever go out to regional Australia, you often run into backpakers who are doing their three months day, I think, in rural or regional Australia. They're the ones who will actually be hit hardest. Anyway, we're going to hear a lot more about this in the run-up.

5:09Well, I was going to say to the next election that's a couple of years away, but in the next few months. Yeah, you're right there. Now, the US Federal Reserve lifted interest rates yesterday morning as expected. And new Chair Kevin Warsh has triggered the eye of President Donald Trump, who said interest rates should be 1%, adding that the US was booming. But what Warsh also did was earn the respect of financial markets, who certainly welcomed the increase given that economic data. Yes. So basically, analysts were relieved that the new Fed Chair was independent enough to lift interest rates. The decision to hike was unanimous. When rates go up and the commentary from the Fed suggest they'll go up again later in the year, bond yields should rise. That's what normally happens. The opposite yesterday, because markets were relieved the Fed is still prepared to fight inflation. Therefore, bond yields fell. That flowed through to local markets. Now, having said all that, Trump came out and said what he said, he said.

6:12And then later in the day, he said, oh, look, I spoke to Kevin Warsh, and I told him to vote with the rest of the board. He's got a bad board. The board's going to lift him anyway. He couldn't not have a win, if you're not a mean. So he said that he did tell Kevin Warsh just to vote how he thought. The local share market finished up 0.4% yesterday, showing to 8,732 points after a surge late in the day. Financials did best while the energy and tax stocks did worst. Among the large-cafs National Australia bank was up 3%, ANZ 2%, both Combank and Westpac also raised sigma health care in South 32, which went extibit end with the worst performers of those large caps. Okay, quick break, back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. This is Matt Rogers from Los Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. This is Bowen Yang from Los Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. You know when people try a new food, and suddenly it's like, wait, that's the reaction. A lot of people are having when they first try QB Mayo.

7:12It's the one with the red cap and the little baby on the bottle. You've probably seen it in the grocery store before. And if you've ever just walked past it, some people would say that's a huge mistake. Because this Mayo is different. Most mayonnaise uses whole eggs. QB only uses egg yolks, which gives it this rich umami flavor. It's smoother, deeper, and almost buttery. Once people try it, they start putting it on everything. Egg sandwiches, fries, burgers, some fans even swear by dipping pizza crust in it. Once you notice it, you start seeing it everywhere. Chefs use it, restaurants use it, people who really care about flavor use it. Never try it, grab the bottle with the red cap next time you're out of the store. Put it on just about anything, then you'll understand. QB, the original Japanese mayonnaise. Sean BHP says it's carbon emissions will stay higher for longer, after delaying billions of dollars of spending on electric mining trucks and trains. The mining giant still expects to hit its 2030 emissions target.

8:12And net zero by 2050. But its revised plan shows emissions in 2035, about 33% higher than previously forecast. One big reason is diesel. BHP now expects its diesel consumption to peak seven years later than under its previous plan. The company's delayed about four billion USD as a spending on battery, powered hall trucks and trains. BHP said that today's electric trucks simply aren't productive enough. They can require up to eight 30 minute charging stops a day, compared with one 15 minute diesel refuel. The IMF, I mentioned this at the top of the show, the International Monetary Fund, has told Australian governments to rein in spending, warning that rising debt costs are adding to the challenge of getting inflation under control. Federal and state public debt has reached about $1.6 trillion, while the 10-year Commonwealth bond yield hit 5.4% this week, as it's highest since 2011.

9:14The IMF says spending restraint would take some pressure off the reserve bank, which should remain ready to lift rates again if inflation stays stubborn. Yes, the IMF says Australia's economy remains strong, helped by low unemployment, household spending and data center investment, but weak productivity remains the big problem. The IMF also will come if it's too controlled. NDI spending while urging more indebted states to repair their budgets. How do you reckon people like Jim Charmers would respond to being told what to do by the IMF? I was pretty receptive to it. I just finally loved it. Yeah, come on. There's another criticism off we go. Yeah, please, please, oh, we'll do exactly what you say. Be like a recalcitrant child now and do the exact opposite, just to spite the IMF possibly. Investors are set for a $40 billion payday, as dividends paid out by ASX listed companies hit bank accounts over the next couple of months. Almost $28 billion will land in shareholder accounts this month,

10:16followed by another $10 billion in October, according to Bell Potter. The bumper payout follows reporting season, of course, when two-thirds of ASX listed companies increase their dividends. So, total dividends for the past financial year reached about $106 billion, the third highest on record, and three consecutive years of falling payouts, resource companies led the recovery. You think BHP Rio Tinto MPOL? It's a dividend meant from $0.40 to $0.85. Question, of course, is what to do with the dividend? Do they spend it? Do you pay off the mortgage? Do you reinvest? I think lots of people end up reinvesting, so that might help the local share market, which is how pretty tough a year, really. Open AI wants the Albanese government to loosen the rules around copyright and AI, arguing that greater certainty could help attract billions of dollars of technology investment to Australia. The maker of chatGPT wants a framework allowing AI models to learn from publicly available information

11:18while protecting against piracy and providing ways to work with copyright holders. Open AI says the rules will influence whether AI companies invest in expensive data centers, research and model training in Australia. The pitch comes in a submission to a parliamentary inquiry, examining AI's impact on productivity regulation and risk. Open AI also wants AI treated as an applied workplace skill, arguing it can help employees and organisations get more done. Australia is already an enthusiastic adopter. In fact, it's among the top 20 countries for chatGPT messages per person this year. How about this? This is quite shocking. Retail theft is becoming an even bigger headache now. For Australian businesses with new figures showing shoplifting is rising sharply in New South Wales Victoria and Queensland. In New South Wales, for instance, retail theft was actually the only major crime category to increase significantly over the two years to June,

12:20jumping 10.4 per cent in regional New South Wales at rose almost 12 per cent. Victoria recorded nearly 21,000 alleged retail theft offender incidents in the year of March and that's about 12 per cent. And media reports, at least from Queensland, say shoplifting offences were up 17 per cent early this year and July actually was a record monthly high. It's not just chocolate bars disappearing in deposits. Have you ever shoplifted a chocolate bar? It sounds like you've got a guilty conscience, Sean Almer. It feels like you jump straight to chocolate bars then. Yeah, yeah. Are liquor clothing and footwear have been prominent targets in New South Wales? That's a top of the rain in New Pocket Sean. Yeah, right, right, right. liquor clothing, footwear, prominent targets in New South Wales, organised groups are increasingly targeting high value goods. For retailers, obviously there's a cost in stolen stock, but it's also security, insurance, staff safety, all that sort of stuff as well. There's also stories as well about the cost of living,

13:22impact on it and why there was such a spike in meat theft as well, which is just to add to another complexity to this, which is not for a discussion here, but that is still pretty shocking figures overall. Turning to international news now, the crypto industry is suffering a pretty major set back in Washington with the US Senate blocking legislation designed to finally give digital assets a comprehensive regulatory rulebook. The Clarity Act is the name of the bill, but it failed to pass a procedural vote after four Republicans joined Democrats in opposition. The bill would clarify, hence its name, how digital assets are regulated, including the respective roles of the SEC and the commodity futures trading commission. So Democrats argued its ethics provisions didn't go far enough to prevent President Donald Trump and his family benefiting from their crypto interests,

14:23and that's the main reason it didn't pass. The industry has spent heavily pushing for clearer rules. Reuters reported about 300 million US was spent around the 2024 and 2026 elections. Of course, Donald Trump came in promising to make things easier. The news sent Bitcoin lower though. It's still well above its lows of July, but it's about 40% below its peak of just under a year ago. Japan, I mentioned this at the top of the show. This is amazing. It's reached an extraordinary demographic milestone. For the first time, more than 100,000 of its people are aged 100 or older. Government figures show there are precisely 107,677 centenarians. Oh, well done, Michael. Well done. That's an area. It's got up almost 8,000 in a year though. I have to imagine that number would fluctuate daily. The 56th, I know where you're going there.

15:24Let's leave it at that. 56th, 56th consecutive annual increase, Michael. It is. And women are winning, look, there's no surprise here that women are winning the longevity stakes comfortably. 94,298, which is nearly 88% of the total are female. So you got what you said, 108,000 are thereabouts. When they began counting in 1963, there was just 153. Of course, longer lives in Japan are shrinking with a colliding with the shrinking population. So around 30% of Japanese are already 65 or older. The fertility rate hit a record low last year. That means greater pressure on pensions, health care, the labour market. Living to 100 is actually increasingly normal in Japan. However, finding enough workers to support everyone, that's much harder. Okay, coming up next is Fear and Greed Q&A.

16:26And sure, the humble text message is getting a pretty major upgrade. There's a technology called RCS. And it is coming. In fact, it's already here, really. But it is going to change the way that businesses can communicate with customers. And so today for Q&A, I'm speaking with Hugh Haley from SINCH, about what it means for businesses and for all of us receiving those messages. Here is a sneak peek. If you look at the kind of improvements that suddenly your traditional SMS business can move into, in effect, you're moving into two new areas. One is digital advertising or rich media advertising. And the other is the business of app on demand. So everything that you can do within an app, you can actually do on demand within your messaging inbox. So those are two pretty meaty parts of the mobile world. That is Hugh Haley from SINCH. You can hear the full interview coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at fearandgreed.com.au.

17:28It's a great chat. Hugh's got a really good sense of humour. And it's just fun. And if you're in business, it is well worth a listen. Thank you very much Sean. Thank you Michael. It is Friday the 18th of September, 2026. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson on that with Fear and Greed. Have a great day.