The Indus Waters Are Getting Hot

Kamran Bokhari answers the bat signal to join Jacob Shapiro for a wide-ranging conversation on the spike in India-Pakistan tensions following the Kashmir attack - and why it’s not just business as usual. They unpack the strategic logic (or lack thereof) behind Pakistan’s moves, India’s dilemma over deterrence, and the escalating risk of regional miscalculation. They also dig into the broader Middle East: Iran’s negotiations, Houthi missiles, and whether the U.S. is quietly brokering a regional reset. Kamran sees threads tying it all together; We're still trying to figure out if that’s optimism or a warning. Either way, something’s shifting... and fast.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction

(00:56) - Current Geopolitical Tensions

(01:56) - India-Pakistan Relations and Kashmir Conflict

(02:43) - US-India Strategic Partnership

(04:47) - Recent Attacks and Speculations

(07:51) - Historical Context and Recent Developments

(11:36) - Potential Escalations and Strategic Moves

(21:52) - Indus Waters Treaty and Diplomatic Channels

(26:15) - Regional Dynamics and Future Outlook

(27:11) - China's Strategic Interests in South Asia

(28:21) - India's Two-Front Dilemma

(29:43) - China's Potential Responses

(31:30) - Middle East Geopolitical Threads

(33:23) - Iran Nuclear Deal and Regional Implications

(40:49) - US Strategy in the Middle East

(45:49) - Syria's Role in Regional Stability

(50:18) - Concluding Thoughts and Optimism

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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