The Lowdown with Lowetide - Matt Fenwick (Sept 18th)

0:00Granger knows if you're a procurement manager at an industrial manufacturing facility, you're balancing inventory and budget while sourcing critical supplies across the operation. Too much inventory? Cost climb. Too little? Production slows. Grangers, $2 billion in on-hand inventory helps you get what you need when you need it, so you can help keep budgets balanced and lines moving. Call 1-800-Granjer. Click ranger.com or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. Guessing is for game shows, not your business. Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance, and IT, with AI grounded in your context to get work done and done right. It's a new workday. You? I'm very happy to be here. Especially in person because it's so much easier to know who's talking. Because they sound the same, right? You know? Actually, I don't have that problem. I have a system. Do you want to hear about it? Okay. Josh is the voice of Josh's

1:02Josh. You know? You've heard it before. You can tell their identical twins apart. I know what Josh's voice is. And the voice that's faster and younger is declin. The voice is given Donovan a hard time. It's low tide. That's right. That's exactly right. We don't let Donovan interact with, I guess, from the outside. So that's why he's not here. As few things I wanted to talk to you about, and I don't remember the last time you would have written or talked about this publicly. But I'm watching somebody sent, I think it was in our group chat, a commercial for a betting site. And there are three guys around the bar that go, oh no, this guy's good. His fendwick is really good. Do you get paid for it? Is there any, do you get like, you know, like if... Zero dollars lifetime or an hour. Oh wow. Because if you've written like American woman, every time it got played, you get a little bit of money. Right. You haven't reaped any rewards. I know all I've lots of rewards. They're just not financial. Old friends and, you know, I... I wanted to know the genesis of this because I know I've wondered about this for some time,

2:06because I remember reading, I don't remember what your day was, but on a river in oil fans, we were talking about corsi versus, and they weren't called that then. We weren't calling them those things, but we're talking about shots at goal, shots on goal. And I, maybe 2003, I don't remember the year per se, but you were the one who I think said, well, wait a minute, what are we going to count here? And what is important? And I think that your metric has kind of lasted very well in terms of what we now look at today. It has. So it was actually after the lockout. So you remember like the real, the boom in the oilogosphere and the hockey blogging started after the lockout last year. And then I'm going to say as it was about 07 that Tim Barnes, as it was now that whatever he is at the Washington capitals. I would say invented the corsi and he started publishing and theorizing about that that total shots attempted was a good

3:07representative of the run of play. But at that time in the very beginning, we were looking at it more to look at players than teams. So in that context, I sort of brought up like, geez, you know, if two guys had identical shots foreign against, but one had fewer blocked and more got through or the converse when you're defending, if you're able to block shots as opposed to letting them through and miss or hit the host or whatever, that's better. So why wouldn't you count it that way instead? And there was of course on the blogosphere, lots of arguments about it and people push it back. But then one day, he basically just added a second column to his spreadsheet and said like, there's corsi, here's Fenwick. And we stopped talking about it. But you know, it was probably a victory for everybody involved because as we recall, those conversations went deep into the night. I don't know if anybody slept during those years. I don't know if you know about dangerous Fenwick, but Puck IQ picked up the idea of Fenwick a few years ago. And dangerous Fenwick measures the distance from the shot was taken,

4:11danger areas and that sort of thing. And that's one of the things that I really value now because I think that it is, it's the idea is contributing most to goal opportunities. And it's sort of like expected goals, which is also the same as Fenwick, but it's inside the home plate area. Yeah, yeah, that's right. Yeah. And so the, the, when you, when you look at all, and I don't know how often you look at it because you know, you're living the same city as the flames and they might look at it a lot, but it's not good for them. But when you, when you look at the, the process, are you, are you pleased with the direction it's gone? Or do you think it's not gone that much farther than when we were all kind of staring at what you were doing? Oh, I think most things have gone ahead leaps and bounds. And as I like, I actually found an article I wrote in 2015 that was sort of like to be a post script of all this and finished by reminding everybody that I actually wasn't really an analytics guy. Like I wasn't that good at the math. It was really like, I was a pretty good blogger. I don't have any like false humility about that. I liked it. I thought I

5:12was good at it. And, but it was really more about having clear thinking conversations than elite advanced math or data processing, which is far, far beyond me. So all that stuff is gone really well, but there I would say there's still some fuzzy thinking. I agree with that. I knew I wasn't going to be like at the outer marker when I was talking to Dello via DM one night. And I say, he said, we were late one night. We're talking about, you know, wives, I think. And he, he said, I said, what are you doing this weekend? And he said, I'm teaching myself code. And I'm like, okay, so I'm out. I'm out. I'm not going to be, if you're, if you're doing that on a weekend, I'm not that guy, right? But they, whatever they didn't have, you know, you mentioned Tim Barnes, but also Todd Dello. A lot of people, you know, grew out of that group and someone onto NHL Jones, which is very cool. It's very cool. Yeah. So I went to, when Vic for our, or Tim Barnes,

6:13one that, the cup with, yeah, Calpital's in 2018, I got to go to the cup party which he had in Calgary in October of that year. I met a couple of his buddies who he met at some crazy trading, commodities trading outfit that the lady had set up specifically because she planned to buy a sports franchise in the future. Wow. And thought this would be good practice or like the ways to learn a bunch of this stuff is just like so far beyond my mental capability. There's people out there who are actually using their days and nights. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Do you remember the, the Stanweer hockey card? Oh, yeah. Yeah. I don't actually still have it. Okay. We found out that. Yeah. Yeah. Voodooed it with a bunch of toothpicks as I recall. And then these various joints and such. The other's lost game seven. It was crushing moment for me, but I mean, it worked. So I'm hoping that you're out of Stanweer hockey cards. Really? Yeah. It was folded up thing from 1978, I think. So yeah, before we pick on Josh, I want to ask you about the

7:15saddle. It's like, yeah, for me, it's an historic place because I've been to many games there, flames games, some involving the others. I saw, I don't remember the year, but my father and law drove off from medicine had I drove down from Edmunds and it was a Russia versus Canada early. Yeah. Like maybe September tournament and we saw a couple of games and I saw Tina Turner and Lionel Richard there, one of the best concerts I ever saw. Even though the saddle almost wasn't really great for sound. It was a fantastic. Can you say Tina opened for him? Yeah. And it basically blew the doors off the place. And he had two weeks later she wasn't on the tour. Cause he had to wait for 45 minutes just to come out. Yeah. So that the buzz would die down. Oh my God. She was so talented. And he was too, but it was, it was, you know, he had Diner Ross on this 40 foot screen. It was pretty well done. But Tina Turner on the evening. But you must have some memories of that of that. I have tons. So I went, I started going into games the first season. Opened it. I went to some games in the crowd before that. And then lots and lots of flames games, but also lots of other events. Right. So I went to lots of concerts. I went the first pro

8:18basketball league in my memory in Canada was the started as the world basketball league for the 64 and under players. Calgary 88 played for a bunch of years. I had friends with season tickets or we'd get them for two dollars from Shell or whatever. And went. So I've been there a lot over the years. And then yet more flames games in the arts. So though we lived in Lutthbridge and somewhat less so in the last few years. But Lutthbridge is a pretty city, right. But it's so damn windy. So windy. I mean, I just, I could, whenever I was there, I'm like, I cannot live here. I would have earaches every five minutes. That's for sure. So the other thing that I wanted to mention or talk to you a little bit about, because these are all thoughts that I've had when reading you or interacting with somebody who knows you, when all is said and done, are you more or less of a hockey fan than you were 20 years ago? Because I know we get busy with life, right? We're raising kids. You got jobs to do. You know, you want to take vacations. And at some point Mrs. Fenwick

9:20has put up with a lot of you staring at a computer in the morning, right? So this is a two part answer, I suppose, which is that I am definitely much less of a hockey fan overall than I was. In fact, probably since I practically when I stopped playing in 1989, I've become less and less of margin, you know, incrementally every year, right? The game is a whole, the NHL, however, the Calgary Flames are my number one team in any sport that I, it doesn't matter how disinterested I am in the NHL or that season or whatever. I care if the Flames are doing well, I'll cheer when they score a goal literally every time. That's good though. That's being a fact. Yeah. They're going to be good. They're not going to be good this year, but I like their young defense. I think they're going to be good here soon. Yeah, I think I'm a little worried. Josh this prediction is maybe a year premature. I like 20, 30 better. Is this going to be good? I'm thinking 20, 40, but you know, everybody has, you know, if we could lock it in, I might take 24.

10:21You know what? Here's the thing. Like 89 they won. And I thought it was a reward for making the orders better in the 80s because they always put the toughest out for the orders for Winnipeg. God, they had a good team. I never could give out a Alberta. They took a Calgary a couple times too. They were good. Oh, yeah, they were. But I thought that 89 win was was real. Like it was, it was a reward, but they also actually won the Stanley Cup in the before the lockout in 20, 2004. That puck was in the net, right? It was in. Right. So they should have, like, they got robbed of a stand. Now they've got replay and all that. They would have figured it out. But the puck was in the net. It sure looked like it. There's like the Calgary Sun photographer got an unbelievable photo of it that went on the front page that shows Habiboulin's pattern. You know, behind the line with the puck stuck against it. And then the red line was like, wow. It just, you know, I hate the imperfection of that, right? I'm glad we have the system now, even though it takes forever

11:24sometimes. But that was a, that was a complete robbery. And it's too bad because everybody, you know, in Canada is kind of waiting for the next one. That would have been the next one, right? You know, it would have, it would have been the last one. Yeah, because you can't possibly win with all the talent they have. All right. So you have three kids, right? Yeah. Yeah. Josh is the middle one. Yeah. Okay. And do you see the more athletic one or the smarter one? What is he? Guessing is for game shows, not your business. Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance, and IT with AI grounded in your context to get work done and done right. It's a new work day. Hi, Podvans. Max Russian here from the chart topping Guardian football weekly podcast. Don't not to crow. If you enjoy the World Cup with us, you'll be glad to know we're back for new Premier League season. Expect three episodes a week, questionable predictions, and the biggest stories in soccer from the Premier League to the Champions League and beyond. Watch now on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcast.

12:29What is he? Not the more athletic or smarter one. He's the hardest working one. Okay. He's the, he is a very hard way. He's very bright too. Yeah. Yeah. Knows what he's doing. But on a scale of like, you know, kids, he's. We're looking at the first the pertinent if he's very hard working. Right. Okay. So that's, you know, that's, he gets the try metal, you know, I was yeah, I had a great dude in general. Oh, yeah. No, he's a really good guy. He takes great care of his cars. Until they drop dead on the highway. You know, but so the experience of did you, did you encourage or discourage him getting into media and radio? I would, I don't think either probably encouraged mostly indirectly the interest in sports and all of us in the family encouraged his interest in theater and performing and, you know, he did the announcements in junior high right for a year because you like to do that sort of thing. So did you see any of his plays? Any of those in any? All of them. Of course. And he's good. Yeah,

13:29was there is any musicals? Yeah. Yeah. The cowardly lion sang a fantastic song. Now, was he the cowardly lion? Was the cowardly lion? Of course he was. Yeah. So you're obviously very proud of him. He's doing very well. And you've met his young lady. She's very nice. I've met her many times. She was very nice. Yeah. So I think he's done pretty well for himself. I have some stories that I could tell you that you don't know, but I'm not going to. I have no doubt. And I'm sure he and, honestly, he and I appreciate that. I think some things are better left unsaid. It's so totally true. You can tell you when everybody's 90, you can let that loose, but not until then. And I'm very thankful that we didn't have any cameras and phones when I was their age. Oh, yes. Right? You know, the the river rock room lives only in my memory. And that's a good thing. So you're up to visit and you're having a good time. We're going to a wedding tomorrow. Oh, no. Our whole family. Yeah. Some old friends are getting married. I'm I've got married a year ago on Sunday, but I don't go to very many weddings that I'm not, you know, in now. Because all

14:33of my friends are, you know, older. And my kids aren't married yet. But it's nice to go to, right? Yeah. I think we're probably averaging one every seven years for the past 15 or 20. Yeah. It's not very odd. And I'm out of that. I'm out of that period where friends of mine are breaking up with people and then want to sleep on my sofa, which I'm very glad for. Did you ever have that? No, nobody has ever tried to sleep on my sofa. But they broke up. But they're like, oh, that's good. Because it splits everybody just so you know, that's not a good thing. Sounds awful. Yeah. Just don't answer the phone. That's the best, the best way I go about it. All right. So we got to talk just a little bit about fantasy baseball. Sure. And I had I had the league one, you rat. When PCA came out of nowhere, I couldn't, I could not compete with Pete Crow Armstrong for like the last month of the year. I was hopeful when I acquired him in the off season and then I exceeded it by so much. Yeah. What a fun player. But I thought about

15:34making an offer and I didn't. And when you got him, I thought that's not a bad price. What, what, because I always worried about a strikeout to walk ratio, what did you like about him that I didn't see? I liked that he was probably a top-ish outfielder that was 23. And I really, really needed outfield help. So I needed Julio to be what PCA was. Yeah. All right. Yeah. And then the other one is a South Stewart. You picked him up. I dropped it. Oh, yeah. You picked him up. And he has been lights. I play many real insight there. I think I read a Jeff pass and a bit about you know, guys on every team who might help you win your fantasy league. It's talking about the Reds and what he said about South Stewart is the guy. This guy's hit everywhere he's ever played. Yeah. Like, okay. I'll take you. Yeah. And I blood being in the league is a 12 team league. It's been around for how long? Since oh six. Right. So it's been a long time. 20 years. I think there's only been two changes and you're the second one. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I was I was delighted to get in and I was surprised to find out how many owners in the league are in prison.

16:35So it makes it makes it interesting and easy to keep track of them. But it's quite a quite a wide lens of their own structure. And I think do you do you you must have by the do you been you've been since oh six you've been at the 20 years in the league. I have the whole time. Yeah. So you probably get some great dirt on those guys. But we won't share that. It's it's it's been very online even the whole time. Right. So really there's still a two or three guys I've never met. Oh really. Oh wow. Probably the midsles. The midsles. Yeah. And the fake chemist the 20 doesn't exist. I never understood the fake thing but I'll I'll get there someday. Yeah. Listen, anything that you wanted to say that we haven't gotten to. Oh, you had a great spicy take actually. Okay. Go. So I was watching Little Big League because so Pete Crohr Armstrong his mom is the mom in Little Big League which is wild, which is crazy. Yeah. But I was watching it yesterday and the manager at the beginning of the movie there's an interesting analogy to Mike Babcock right now. So this is

17:35the one it's played by Dennis Freena. He's loud. Love him. He yells at everybody and all the players hate him. And when Billy takes over the team because his grandfather dies and leaves it to him, he gets sick of him and he fires him. But yeah, oh, Ferrell's like uh, your grandfather hired me to rattle the cage of these animals and I'm going to do it. And I thought, oh my god, that's bad. Yeah. It is. I've said this year, um, you know, ordinarily I say you know, the cop and I'm gonna go to the cop. I said they could win the cop or Babcock could be fired by December 25th. And I believe that. I've heard you say it many times. Yeah. Because this is it's wide open and the things that are doing aren't terribly logical. Putting McDavid and dry subtle together means they're easier and defend against for another team. And yeah, DJ Smith, who's on the team as a coach said that in his media of hell and they're like full steam ahead. Yeah. You know, it's like the Titanic or not. I don't know. Should be fun. Yeah.

18:37The only other thing I was going to offer if you want is my my hockey prediction I guess for the near future is that I think that Florida Panthers are going to be way worse way sooner than people predict because of the big contracts because of their age. Yeah. And it's actually an old Bruce McCurdy thing. He used to point out all the time that the teams that like would outperform expectations are the ones with like a critical mass of 23 to 27 year olds. Yeah. Because even if your old players are good, it's really hard for them to exceed expectations, right? Yeah. Whereas the the younger guys, it's like, you know, it's the it's the O6 oilers, right? Yeah. Exactly. And all those guys like Torrez and they had six guys, Hemsky and Horkoff, we're all making under a million. Yeah. And they were 23 and it's not just contracts. It's the fact that they turned out real good, right? They did. Flames are kind of like that. Maybe a little young to be called that. Maybe a little. Yeah. But that's good. You just got to hope it hits at the time. Well, I knew I'd enjoy talking to you, but I really did. I thank you for this. We didn't get to Josh that much though. That's kind of sure. It's a real broken up of that. It's okay. You know,

19:37it's called the lowdown with low tide, right? Yeah. The lowdown with well be out of deckland and we like to get the dirt on you. I had them going on. Who was the pitcher or the hitter that we were talking about? No, I were number one who pitched against the each row. Yeah, each row. I had them going on each row. You're early today. But he doesn't take the bite of the bait in an or Jalen hurts flag football skills or lack their rub. I guess. Yeah. That's right. Man. They beat up on her. It's every day. It's embarrassing. All right. Well, you're welcome back anytime and you're welcome back anytime and you have to work. So yes, I do. All right. Lowdown with low Hi, I'm Max Ruffton, the host of the Guardian Football Weekly alongside me Barry Glenn Denning, my co-host Hey, Barry. Hello. Now, although every American found us during the World Cup, for the two that didn't, what can they expect? Found us and fell in love with us, Max. They can expect three episodes each week of occasionally insightful analysis covering a Premier League, Champions League and beyond football week. Yes, back watch on YouTube or listen wherever you

20:41get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Jack Ruffiet, your Kramer host of the best one yet. At T-boy, we're always talking about small decisions that can have an outsized impact. One of the simplest is staying hydrated. Whether I'm traveling, getting a workout in or heading into a busy day, I keep liquid IV on hand. It's clinically demonstrated to hydrate faster than water alone and contains three times the electrolytes of the leading sports drink plus eight vitamins and nutrients. It's an easy addition to your daily routine and helps support hydration when you need it most. Shop now at liquidiv.com. Liquid IV hydration that goes wherever life takes you. Guessing is for game shows, not your business. Workday is the enterprise AI platform for HR, finance and IT, with AI grounded in your context to get work done and done right. It's a new work day.