War escalates further. Stagflation?

Wednesday 4th March 2026

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War escalation has torn through markets, driving oil sharply higher, smashing equities and knocking the Aussie to the bottom of the majors as global bond yields surge. With Iranian, Qatari and Iraqi output disrupted, tankers steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz and even Saudi refineries hit, the risk of a genuine energy shock has snapped into focus. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has stoked talk of a near term rate rise, even as today’s Q4 GDP is set to undershoot the Bank’s own forecasts. Europe’s hotter than expected inflation print has revived ECB hike chatter. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil for a rundown on how markets are working their way through all this, mentioning the word stagflation. Today China’s PMIs and the US services ISM will give us a taste if how things were before things got out of hand in the Middle East.

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