Week 3 Matchups to Exploit & Avoid 2026 | Kincaid, Chase, Metcalf

0:00Having uncontrolled eels in a phylic esophageitis or EOE can mean your stuck in many ways, like cutting your food into tiny pieces. Or stuck chewing food for a long time. DuPix and DuPillemab, a prescription medicine for patients one year and older weighing at least 33 pounds can help with that. It's a breakthrough treatment that can reduce inflammation in the esophagus and improve swallowing. How about this? Pix and is not a steroid. It proactively treats EOE so you can get ahead of it. Severe allergic reactions, including skin reactions, can occur. Get help right away if you have trouble breathing or weasin or swallowing of your face, mouth, tongue or throat. Tell your doctor of newer worsening joint aches and pain or a parasitic infection or asthma. Don't change your stop other treatments without talking to your doctor. Feeling stuck with EOE? Start treating with DuPix and talk to your gastroenterologist or allergist today about DuPix and learn more at duPix and dot com or call 1-844 DuPix and.

1:00This episode is brought to you by Welch's Fruit Snacks. Back to school season can be tough on parents. But choosing a snack you and your kids can both get behind doesn't have to be. Stock up on Welch's Fruit Snacks, made with whole fruit and now made with no artificial dies. It's a snack kids already love and one you can feel good about giving them. Go back to school with Welch's Fruit Snacks, now made with no artificial dies. This episode is brought to you by Subaru. You know that place your mind always wanders to? The lake, the mountains, the homes of the people you love most. The completely redesigned 2026 Subaru Outback is built to help you get there. With legendary capability, standards and metrical all-wheel drive and the confidence to go further. The 2026 Subaru Outback. Love never looked so good. Visit Subaru.com slash out back to learn more. Hey, what's up? It's John Hansen back with another edition of the Friday edition of the Fantasy Points podcast.

2:01And I'm flying solo once again, no problem whatsoever. I've gone through every match up. I've got a couple of matchups mostly to exploit, sometimes to avoid, but a couple of matchups focus for all of the games on the docket. We've got 15 of them to get through. Thanks for liking, subscribing and all that good stuff. And as usual, you are welcome. Hey, what's going on? John Hansen here, another edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. And yet another Friday edition where I'm flying solo. Our guy Brian Drake had a little, some sort of commitment come up this evening where recording this Thursday night. It does have two young kids and for me, luckily, thankfully, those days are over for yours truly.

3:07I don't even know how I did it, by the way, for 20 plus years raising young kids involved in sports and activities, running a business that neither here nor there. You got me solo to preview week number three. I'm going to change things up just a little bit compared to what we've been doing. We did the first two weeks where for every matchup, we offered one matchup to exploit and one to avoid. Sometimes when you do that, you're pitching yourself, pitching whole yourself into one now, I got to find an avoid guy and sometimes you got to reach. So I'm going to let it flow a little bit. Sometimes I'll have two matchups to exploit, try and focus on some lower end guys to truly help people out. I'm not going to help you out too much, telling you to start some really established stars, things like that. So let's get into it. By the way, week two sucked really bad week. I think we all got tricked a little bit by week one with the offensive showing up. I'm like, oh, here we go. We're good.

4:07No, we're not. So that said, we'll be a little bit more cautious in week number three, but all we can do is try and handicap these matchups as best we can using a lot of the fantasy points data and let the chips fall because we cannot predict the future and all that good stuff. Well, let's start with the L.A. chargers at the Buffalo Bills and obviously L.A. is in trouble. I'm not going positive on anyone for the chargers, although Lad Makonky did practice fully on Thursday. It's not the greatest schematic matchup for him, but we will give love to Dalton Kincaid. I kind of missed this one. I got to admit, because I just wasn't sure if he was healthy and if the snaps would go up. I mean, how many years in a row do you need to see something from a player before you think, OK, this is what he is. I think I was kind of there. So unfortunately, I was not pounding the table for Dalton Kincaid.

5:11If I had a little bit more insight into the situation, I don't think anyone was really, there were mixed reports too on Kincaid. I guess he had a couple injury snap foods. The vibes were decent for sure, but it looks incredible right now. And I think he's going to stay hot in this one. The chargers running too high looks at a top three rate going back to last year. They're at 59% this year. And Kincaid sees a 20% boost. It was targets per rat run against the look. He has crushed in his career, of course, when he's over a 50% route share, which he will be going forward, assuming he is healthy and against cover three and cover four, which they have used at a 55% clip. He's over four yards per rat run, big time numbers. And oh, by the way, against cover four, Josh Allen sees a 56% increase. It was deep throw percentage. And I know he's completed some long balls down the field to my guy, Josh Palmer, who I

6:12kind of have liked the last couple of years, not this year, because I kind of gave up on him, but not a bad player. That does bowed well for Kincaid, because he's probably more, I'm not looking at the numbers right now, but he's probably got a lot of air yards. And he's a very, very viable deep threat. Probably their best deep threat in terms of a starter. Josh Palmer is more of a rotational guy. So it's looking really good for Dalton Kincaid. One player I kicked the tires on this summer, and I was very high in the offense, and so far it's not going well. That's Quentin Johnson. And luckily I've never been a Quentin Johnson guy. And I think he's been a fantasy albatross so far this season, not a good schematic matchup for him. He averages a week 1.56 yards per rat run against cover three and cover four, which they use 52% of the time. He's very frustrating because he's physically imposing and all that they need him.

7:15Yet for whatever reason, like he's got issues catching the ball. He's improved a little bit there for sure, but it's not going well. And he has not been remotely close to being a part of the solution for the struggling L.A. Chargers, Justin Herbert. It's not all his fault. He leads the NFL in air yards that have been dropped. So there's a couple matchups to home in on for that game. Let's move on to Carolina at Cleveland. Now, Jalen Cokers still out of practice with this ankle. I would have played his prop last week, but I'm trying to avoid guys on the injury report. But he did go off again in week number two. And it is a very good spot for Coker. By the way, the Panthers are second in pass rate over expectation. And I believe one of the reasons is because Jalen Coker is freaking balling through two games. New DC Mike Ruttenberg has used cover one on league high 42% of the opposing dropbacks.

8:19Coker gets a 53% boost to his targets per rat run against cover one dating back to last year. His 2.71 yards per rat run against man ranks top 12 among all wide receivers since entering the league. He should see a decent amount of cornerback miles hardened who gives up a very generous point three three fantasy points per rat run. He also gets targeted the most among their three corners. I'm going to go with another guy somewhat on the lower end that I do think has a good matchup on the other side. So a couple of good matchups here in this month, this one, Harold Fanon. I did like him last week. He did come through with a good schematic matchup. And he's got another one here. Carolina does give up the 11 fewest receiving yards per game and the second fewest receptions per game. But they also face Kyle Pitz last week, which is like facing me. The Panthers use cover three at a top three rate dating back to last year in that span.

9:21Fanon sees a nice little 18% boost to his targets per rat run. That is the second most among all tight ends only George Kittle has this higher target per rat run number. He also leads the team does Fanon with a 0.29 target per rat run number against cover three. And that is despite the pretty considerable presence of rookies KC concept. He also averages a strong 2.04 yards per rat run against the shell. And hey, the Sean Watson actually played pretty well last week. I'm sure he'll take his shots, but he's 10, 15 yards and in type of a guy which should work out well for Fanon along with conception. And yeah, here in Naredal, take a shot to Denzel Boston. It certainly worked out last week. Next up, the Jets. I did pick them the win last week, almost got it right, but they did ball. So we'll go Jets at Detroit Lions here for the Jets.

10:23We're going to go with 80 Mitchell, Adne Mitchell, very impressed by his development. The Lions give up the most receptions, the 12th most fantasy points per target to outside receivers. They're also a deep funnel. They give up the fifth fewest yards on shallow throws within 10 yards and a lot of scrimmage, but the most on the deep ball, which Mitchell gets, he leads the NFL in air yards. He also has four deep targets compared to only one for Garrett Wilson. Also a good matchup based on the coverage. Detroit uses the fifth highest rate of cover three. He averages a strong 2.22 yards per rat run against that look. He's clicking with Gino Smith. So he's looking pretty good. Now, on the negative side of thanks, I know I did, I have been pounding the table on Jamison Williams. And I do think he's going to come around, but maybe we got to wait another week. The Jets allow the seventh fewest receiving yards per game, 16th fewest receptions per game to outside receivers.

11:23They use the highest rate of cover two, which is not great for Jamal looking to prevent big plays with the two deep safeties. He averages a week 1.22 yards per rat run and a very low target number. Cheese.08 on 108 routes against the coverage last season. Yeah, FYI, when I'm listening a player to trade for or trade, especially trade for, is that like I'm thinking he's going to go off that week? It's a big picture thing, especially here in week three. So a couple of players there in 80 Mitchell, one to consider and Jamal Williams, you're probably using them in your regular standard league. You probably took them in like the fifth round, sixth round. But I mean, maybe you have a guy like Jalen Coker. And let's see about his Friday practice report reporting this on Thursday night, but I'd start a guy like Coker over Jamal Williams. I'd absolutely start, you know, Devon Villet over Jamal, although don't love the match

12:27up there for Devon Villet. Let's move on here on the week three preview edition of the fantasy points podcast, Houston at Indy. Don't have much, don't have a lot here. I mean, obviously, Nico Collins is trending toward missing another game. And the Texans are pretty thin. They couldn't, they're receiver. They couldn't run the ball really well last week with David Montgomery and the cults. I showed some size of life, but I'm going to go Tyler Warren, my guy, Houston does give up the fifth most receiving yards and the most yards per target to tight ends. They use the fourth highest rate of cover three and Warren is good against that shell. 2.59 yards per rat row with 0.26 targets per rat run since last season. They did get crushed. Did the Texans by Dalton concade in week one? Warren's certainly been touchdown dependent, only nine grabs for 34, which is weird. But he, you know, he did score the last two weeks and he did score in this lone matchup

13:31against Houston with Daniel Jones. The last year, of course, he only had three for 22. So we might only get, you know, like a four or five catch game for like 45 yards, something like that, 50, but maybe he scores again, but he could also go off. I mean, there's no reason why Tyler Warren in a good situation, a good environment can't do something similar to what Dalton concade did. And concade might be a little bit better, a little bit more fluid of an athlete, but they're comparable players. I'm going to go negative, believe it or not, on our guy Dalton Schulte. He wasn't really our guy. That was the last year. I'm sure I ranked him over his ADP because that's why I had him ranked higher last year because he just, no one really cares about him, but, you know, they do after last week, pot, even though it's a little bit of a mixed bag. I can make a case for him, but I'll go against it because the cults allow the third most receiving yards on throws within 10 yards, a line of scribbage since the start of 2025. That could help Dalton Schulte, obviously.

14:32So use them if you don't have a great alternative. And of course, Travis Kelsey crushed them last week, but if you do have a strong alternative, I do think it's worth noting. Indie runs out the fifth highest rate of man coverage at 38.3% and Schulte's terrible against man. And he made catch five balls or more, but I do believe the yardage will be minimal. Rolling along here on the Friday edition of the Fantasy Points podcast, John Hansen Fleming solo, previewing week number three, step aside and when I return, New England at Jacksonville. Being uncontrolled eels in a philic esophagitis or EOE can mean your stuck in many ways, like cutting your food into tiny pieces or stuck chewing food for a long time. DuPix and DuPillemab, a prescription medicine for patients one year and older weighing at

15:32least 33 pounds can help with that. It's a breakthrough treatment that could reduce inflammation in the esophagus and improve swallowing. How about this? DuPix and Tis not a steroid. Proactively treats EOE so you can get ahead of it. Severe allergic reactions, including skin reactions can occur. Get help right away if you have trouble breathing or wheezing or swelling of your face, mouth, tongue or throat. Tell your doctor of newer worsening joint aches and pain or a parasitic infection or asthma. Don't change your stop other treatments without talking to your doctor. Feeling stuck with EOE? Start treating with DuPix and talk to your gastroenterologist or allergist today about DuPix and learn more at DuPix and dot com or call 1-844 DuPix and next episode is brought to you by Welch's Fruit Snacks. Back to school season can be tough on parents. But choosing a snack you and your kids can both get behind doesn't have to be. Stock up on Welch's Fruit Snacks, made with whole fruit and now made with no artificial dyes. It's a snack kids already love and one you can feel good about giving them.

16:35Go back to school with Welch's Fruit Snacks, now made with no artificial dyes. This episode is brought to you by Subaru. You know that place your mind always wanderers to? The lake, the mountains, the homes of the people you love most. The completely redesigned 2026 Subaru Outback is built to help you get there. With legendary capability, standards and metrical all-wheel drive and the confidence to go further. The 2026 Subaru Outback. Love never looked so good. Visit Subaru.com slash out back to learn more. Welcome back to the Fantasy Points podcast. John Hansen flying solo for our week three preview. War up to the New England Patriots at the Jacksonville Jaguars and for a positive matchup to exploit. I'm going to go Hunter Henry. I think generally speaking, they're going to need him. He clicks with Drake Bay. It's a lot to ask of an aging player like Hunter Henry, but he did have a team best 78% route share in their first full game without a J Brown and he'll be needed to pick up some

17:38slack going forward. With our guy Adam Schaefter reporting that Brown's going to be out six to eight more weeks. Good schematic matchup. The Jags using cover three and cover four, 57% of the time. And Henry averages a promising 2.19 yards per route run against the coverages since last season. It's also a positive schematic for Drake Bay based on the coverages. The Jags also gave up three slash 32 slash one to Nate Atkins diet last week and rookie Eli Raritan suffered a thigh injury in the game. He was downgraded on the injury report on Thursday. So he might be trending in the wrong direction, which can only help Hunter Henry on the negative side of things. Most of the good vibes with Ramandre Stevenson from this summer. They're already gone. I greatly regret giving him love after he fumbled again last week and then he fell behind

18:38Trevihon Henderson in snap share, Carrie share and route share. I don't know what the hell is going on, but he looks like dog dirt out there the first couple of weeks. Jacksonville also gives up. Well, they give up the fourth fewest rushing yards per game. Let's just say it that way and they limited JK Dobbins to 10 carries for 36 yards. So not feeling warm and fuzzy about Ramandre Stevenson. Next up Kansas City at Miami. You know, I'm not feeling warm and fuzzy about Miami. I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but Malik Willis has got like two designed runs, which begs the question, what the hell are you doing? You've got Malik Willis. You've got to use the design run game. You got to use his legs because the passing attack is grounded, but they're not doing that. So they might be tanking. And boy, if this continues, this is Miami owner. Man, this guy is bad news, not good.

19:39But any who I'm going to go negative on Devon H. And even though Kansas City gives up the six most adjusted yards before contact, they're middling basically against the run. Jonathan Taylor, see here it is, Jonathan Taylor. I thought he was going to potentially have a rough outing last week. He did need 24 carries to get to 92 yards. That's not great, but he did score twice. He also caught four balls for 40. However, given how limited Miami's office is, I just think in this situation with a veteran DC like Steve Spagnolo, when you're really just worried about one guy and Coleman, their receiver, by the way, has been out of practice or Caleb Douglass, not Coleman. That's I'm confusing my Miami receivers. Yeah, Caleb Douglas, the rookie, he's been out of practice. So he may not go and that's even more pressure on Devon H. And I just simply think Steve Spagnolo, guys been around the block.

20:43Miami has one weapon, Devon H. So I'm sure they're going to do some special things to limit Devon H. Basically, one guy to take out and you're good. On the positive side, now I know things are not looking great for Rayshi Rice, but I'm going to go positive here. Good matchup based on the coverages cover three and cover six. They run that 53% of the time. He averages a very robust 2.93 yards per run against those coverages. Miami does roll out the 12 ties, right of man coverage, which is bad for rice, but they only played about 21% of the time. Overall, I think it's a good spot for rice. He only has 10 targets through two games, but he should see a bit of cornerback Chris Johnson, who was targeted at a 28.6% rate. That is the second highest out of 90 DBs in our week three wide receiver cornerback matchup tools. So I'm going to give him another shot here. Also a good spot for Travis Kelsey.

21:44We should mention moving on to the Tennessee Titans at the New York Giants. We'll go positive here on Isaiah likely. It's not the great, the greatest schematic matchup. He only averages 1.46 yards per rat run and a pretty low 0.16 target per rat run against cover four and cover three, which they use 57% of the time. However, my man has got a massive 33% first read target share on the C. season, second best among Titans. And a lot of that was J. Mo Winston targeted him last week 10 times with Malik neighbors likely playing a decoy role and likely also averages 13 fantasy points per game across 12 games without Mark Andrew. So I'd say he's a must start until proven otherwise with J. Mo Williams and not a bad matchup overall for James for the Titans.

22:45Now he is dealing with an ankle. So let's see what he does in practice on Friday. So it's always tricky, but Tony Pollard does seem to be better off than Taj A. Spears. Pollard did practice on Thursday. Spears did not also dealing with an ankle injury. As long as he can handle it, obviously they're going to feed Tony Pollard in the running game as long as they can and maybe try and sneak out of victory. I actually picked the Tennessee Titans to win, but I guess I'm a giant's hater have been since the preseason. And I'm not wrong because they're not going anywhere this year with Jackson Dart out for the season. And they do they train their way dexter Lawrence and they do give up the second most adjusted for contact and the second most yards per carry. They got ripped by the Rams backs last week. 24 carries for 164 yards, which does bode well for Pollard. But again, check on that ankle. Let's move on to Cincinnati at Pittsburgh.

23:50This one will be a little bit more for prop bets, DFS, Stealer DC, Patrick Graham has used cover three on at least a third of opposing dropbacks in 15 of his last 19 games. And since 2024, Jamar Chase averages an absolutely absurd 0.39 targets per route run against cover three and correspondingly T Higgins is target per route run number drops 33% against the shell. T Higgins is your man beater. Jamar Chase is your zone beater. Basically, the Steelers used a combo of cover four and cover three at a 64% clip and Chase averages a fat 2.96 yards per route run against those coverages since last season. I did the fantasy points betting podcast and I did bring this up when I talked about Cincinnati. I think I took Cincinnati just because I think it's going to be pitch and catch to Jamar Chase and to that point, I forgot about this when I said it on the pod a couple days ago.

24:54Now, he had one bad game with Flacco a quarterback, but he also had a game with 16 grabs for a buck 61 and a tuddy. So I kind of like his over six and a half catch prop. I trust the catches a little bit more based on this coverage than the yards and speaking of coverages, DK Metcalf, not looking good. The Bengals allow the eighth fewest receiving yards per game, sixth fewest yards per target to outside wide receivers. And a lot of that is DJ Turner, who we are projecting to shadow DK Metcalf, who's only got eight for 99 and two full games, who only total eight for 99 and two full games against Cincinnati last year. So you're not going to shut them down, but he basically averaged four catches for 50 yards. Again, Turner hasn't allowed more than 45 receiving yards to any wild wide receiver while in primary coverage dating back to last year.

25:56And since he's been an underneath funnel, allowing the second fewest yards per game on the deep ball only 31 since 2025. And again, a lot of that is Turner. So yeah, this looks like another five catch for 50 yard day at best for DK, who is lead in a league with three drops. You all know if you listen to me, I am a DK Metcalf hater. A lot of it is because obviously so physically imposing, but not his fault, but that also brings some limitations. But the three drops this year, I'll blame on DK. And by the way, his body language is terrible. He looks like he looks miserable out there as do the entire really all the Steelers look pretty bad. Let's move on next here. D Hawks at the DC commanders positive. We're going to go reshade white. It's looking good last week. The utilization was really good. But Seattle runs zone coverage at the top four rate.

26:56Two high looks at a top six rate in that span. White targets per route run almost doubles when facing zone. It increases by 60% when he faces too high. And Seattle is the one thing they do. They allow running backs to catch passes. They do surrender the ninth most receiving yards per game to run it backs at 39. Now on the negative side of things, probably a good week to give Jadarian price the week off. He is dealing with a shoulder injury. He's probably going to go, but man, DC shocked me last week. I thought that'd be a lot easier to run on, but they shut down Javante. This couple of carries was nothing doing. And it almost felt like they were like, all right, well, we're not running the ball today. Let's air it out, which worked. But DC gives up the seventh fewest rushing yards per game. Second fewest receiving yards per game. A lot of people picking up a manual.

27:57Wilson this week. I think that's desperate times call for desperate measures. But I wouldn't want to deal with that three headed monster in that back field, although Wilson kind of took over because George Hallani is just a guy. We are rolling through the matchups in week three here on Friday edition of the Fantasy Points podcast. I'll take another break. I'll take another sip of coffee and return with the Arizona Cardinals at the San Francisco 49ers. Having uncontrolled eels in a philic esophageitis or EOE can mean you're stuck in many ways, like cutting your food into tiny pieces or stuck chewing food for a long time. DuPix and DuPillamab, a prescription medicine for patients one year and older weighing at least 33 pounds can help with that. It's a breakthrough treatment that can reduce inflammation in the esophagus and improve swallowing. How about this? DuPix and is not a steroid.

28:57It proactively treats EOE so you can get ahead of it. The viewer allergic reactions, including skin reactions, can occur. Get help right away if you have trouble breathing or wheezing or swallowing of your face, mouth, tongue or throat. Tell your doctor of newer worsening joint aches and pain or a parasitic infection or asthma. Don't change your stop other treatments without talking to your doctor. Feeling stuck with EOE? Start treating with DuPix and talk to your gastroenterologist or allergist today about DuPix and learn more at DuPix and dot com or call 1-844 DuPix and this episode is brought to you by Welch's Fruit Snacks. Back to school season can be tough on parents. But choosing a snack you and your kids can both get behind doesn't have to be. Stock up on Welch's Fruit Snacks, made with whole fruit and now made with no artificial dyes. It's a snack kids already love and one you can feel good about giving them. Go back to school with Welch's Fruit Snacks, now made with no artificial dyes. This episode is brought to you by Subaru.

29:57You know that place your mind always wanders to? The lake, the mountains, the homes of the people you love most. The completely redesigned 2026 Subaru Outback is built to help you get there. With legendary capability, standards and metrical all-wheel drive and the confidence to go further. The 2026 Subaru Outback. Love never looked so good. Visit Subaru.com slash out back to learn more. Alright, we're back with another edition of the Fantasy Points podcast previewing week and number three, John Hansen Flank, solo, Argybrian Drake. He's on assignment. Let's just call it that. Arizona at San Fran Cisco. And for the positive, I believe we had Michael Wilson negative here on the pod last week. If not, I know I had that in my article. It was all based on the data and all that. This 2022 DC Raheem Morris' defensive rank first, seventh, ninth and fourth in cover three rate, never dipping below 33.5%.

31:02So far this year, by the way, he's at 52%. Third most, Michael Wilson sees a 22% target per round increase against cover three, dating back to last season. And of course, Marvin Harrison gets a 10% reduction. So Wilson's target per round run is higher against cover three, by the way, than Trey McBride. So I feel good about Michael Wilson in this matchup. They should have to throw a lot because the Niners will likely crush them. I'm going to use this opportunity to bring up Mike Evans. We're going to go positive here with big Mike. I know he's a little bit banged up. I don't know if he can get through the whole year, but if he's good to go and in the starting lineup, he should do very well. The Cardinals ranked fourth in cover four rate and over the last three seasons. Evans sees a 24% boost to his target per round run against the shell, ranking sixth best

32:03among wide receivers. The yards per round run is excellent 3.19. Meanwhile, by the way, George Kiddell sees a 27% increase in the number of points. 27% yard per round reduction against the shell. So should be a big Mike Evans game, especially with DeMarcus Robinson all banged up. And the cards give up the sixth most receiving yards and the 11th most yards per target to outside wide receivers. He is slated to see a bit of our friend. Well, our friend's son, Max Melton, Gary, his father, Gary, friend of the podcast. He's been on the pod a couple of times, but Max Melton's been out of practice this week too. And they also just put Johnson. They're one of their top corners on IR. Let me just confirm that that he was actually placed on the IR. Yeah, Will Johnson is on IR. So he's out for at least four weeks. I think it couldn't be longer.

33:04I'm not sure if that's not. It doesn't matter for this, but I'm not sure if that was designated to return or full on IR. I think it might be full on IRs, which is not good for the Cardinals, but good for big Mike Evans, Minnesota at Tampa Bay. Hey, I'm the biggest Viking fan out there, longest Viking fan. I did incorrectly pick them to win the Super Bowl last year, but it's starting to look like I was a year too early. But that said, I do notice Viking fans are just getting a little too happy after two big wins, but let's slow the roll a little bit. The biggest problem with the Vikings is they cannot handle prosperity quite frankly. So this is a tough game to get a handle on because well, the Viking defense has just been lights out. I am going to go, I'm going to go positive though on a mecca, a buka.

34:07There is something to the notion and being a fan, I've noticed this over the last couple of years. Maybe it's a florist thing, maybe it's a Viking thing, but they do tend to struggle with opposing number one wide receivers. I don't even know what's been an issue this year. Let's go back and look. Let's take a look. Well, yeah, they do. Green Bay. Watson crushed them. Now Chicago, that was a bad weather game where they lost the quarterback. Yeah, to my point, Christian Watson absolutely crushed them. So I will give a mecca, a buka, a shot here, you know, Baker's going to have, he's going to throw for 200. He's going to find a way most likely even though it's a tough match up. Now the Vikings blitz at a league high rate and a buka does see a very severe decrease to his yards per route when it gets to blitz, which does scare me just a little bit. However, there is another positive angle. There's another angle that's positive. The Vikings run two high looks at the NFL's highest rate.

35:08That's a huge part of their foundation, 68%. A buka does see a 50% boost to his yards per route run when facing two high over the career. Now, I'm not guaranteeing anything on a buka. It has been a little weird. You know, the first nine games of the career I saw a stat today looked great. And then subsequently the next nine or 10, not great. It's for that reason. I kept them off my target list this summer and so far so good, but I do think a buka has a chance to move the needle. I'm going to go negative on Kyler Murray. It's so hard to gauge based on such a limited sample, but he does not do well against the blitz and the Bucks blitz at the second highest rate. So we have the two most blitz happy defenses on the field for this game. Kyler ranks just 42nd of 45 qualifying quarterbacks and fantasy points per dropback against

36:09the blitz over the last three seasons. I'm sure the lack of height has something to do with it. His scramble rate even falls in the face of the blitz, which is pretty weird. Now the Bucks dig it rocked by the Sean Watson last week and I do like Justin Jefferson in this matchup. I just don't know if anybody else is going to do anything because they want to be keep it close to the vest. By the way, Aaron Jones did return to practice on Thursday. So it looks like he's going to play and tough it out. Do one for the club and all that. And then after this week, you got two more weeks without Jordan Mason and then they can pull back and give Aaron Jones a little bit of a break. But yeah, not feeling warm and fuzzy about Kyler Murray in this matchup. Next up. We'll go to Baltimore at Dallas. And on the negative side, I'm going to go with Mark Andrews. Man, I know he's getting it done here with four plus grabs and 49 yards and six plus targets in each of his first two games, six for 49 on seven targets last week.

37:14First ball to him was an ugly drop, though. Man, his body language looks terrible. He looks washed. I should have put him as a player to trade for, but it's kind of hard with Zay Flowers, who by the way didn't practice Thursday out and them needing to lean on Mark Andrews, which they have been, but it's not a good matchup based on the coverages. The Cowboys use cover three and cover four or 59% of the time. And Andrews is only at 1.23 yards per route run. You want him against man. You don't like him against zone, even though Isaiah likely ripped them. Isaiah likely is Mr. Zone beater. Not Andrews. So I'm going to lean negative on Andrews and then pretty obvious one here, but Derek Henry, what do you get? Like four carries in the second half last week. Cosme to lose at damn prop were well on our way at the half. And they get like 66 yards. That was it. So Declan Doyle probably learned his lesson. There'll be a little bit of an over correction. And I was looking at some of the data.

38:16It looks really good for their zone running game against Dallas. Dallas allows a ninth most suggested yards before contact. Eighth most rushing yards per game. They've already ruled out overshown. Cam Skataboo got them for 18 carries for 81 yards last week. So we got that going for us. And it's such a pain in the ass, by the way, to keep track of these damn game locations and the like. It's hard enough to keep track of everything, but this game is in freaking Brazil, right? Yeah, it is. So there's that just FYI. I don't know what that means. But there you are. It's in Brazil, whatever that means, but still Brazil or not. It's a good match up for Derek Henry. Next up. We got the Raiders and the Saints.

39:18Two matchups to exploit here. Not that you weren't going to start them in your regular league, but I would expect Ashton Genti to have a pretty good game off to a slow start on the ground. But the Saints are giving up over a 60% success rate on the ground. They are allowing 4.3 yards per carry on me and gap runs, five yards per carry on zone concept runs. So I'm feeling pretty good about Genti, who has got a massive role. You know, 21 carries in 4 plus reception, 21 plus carries, 4 plus receptions in each of the first two games. Third in snap share, second in route share among all running backs through the first two weeks. Another positive matchup to exploit. We're going to go with Juwan Johnson. Obviously Chris Olave is balling, but through two games, Vegas is used cover three 51% of the time and 39% of opposing dropbacks, which would both rank top four for all defenses.

40:18Juwan sees a 21% target boost against cover three ranking. Second on the team against the shell. While my guy Devon Valay does see a little bit of a dip against that shell, a negative four reduction to targets per route run. And it's also pretty good number wise in terms of yards per route run against cover three and cover six, which coupled together is 63% of the time. He's at 2.19 yards per route run. So both of these teams play a lot of runoff, a lot of plays. They play very fast. So we should see a lot more of Juwan Johnson. We'll take a break. And when we return final two games on the docket here, the week three edition of the Fantasy Points podcast Friday preview edition. Welcome back here. Final two games to preview on the week three edition of the Fantasy Points podcast, the Friday edition, the LA Rams at the Denver Broncos.

41:21I'm going to go negative on Devon Tay Adams. Still don't know about Puka Nakua, but the Broncos deploy the six highest rate of man coverage. And he averages just 1.7 oh yards per route run against man. It's not the greatest schematic matchup against single high looks and the like. So hopefully for the Rams, they can get Puka Nakua back because Terrence Ferguson, he's not great against man either. And he's on the injury report for a positive. This is tough, but I'm actually going to go drew lock. Two lock has been excelling against too high coverage this year. He's leading the lead actually in YPA against too high coverage. So he's looking pretty good here based on the schematics with the LA Rams. And it could be a little bit of a shootout. Juwan lock averaging 11 yards per attempt against too high coverage.

42:24So that could bow well for, you know, Jalen Waddle and the running game is in a little bit of a state of flux. But not least Philadelphia at Chicago to wrap it up. Still don't know about the quarterback situation, but I'll go negative on Luther Bird. And it is a pretty good matchup based on coverages because he's over three yards per route run against cover three and cover six. Of course, he only got four for 33 against the Eagles last year. However, with the potential quarterback switch and with Cooper Dijane on the other side, I just can't go there. I'm going to lose their burden. So you might want to park them on the bench. And on the other side with Devonte Smith out of practice on Thursday with a hamstring injury, that does not bowed well because it's not the greatest matchup based on coverages and schematics because Chicago, they run the third highest rate of man coverage. And Devonte Smith is less effective against man.

43:25Meanwhile, Don Tavian wicks. He looks like the second option in the passing attack for Jalen Hertz to me. And he does well against man coverage, 2.16 yards per route run against man since the start of last season. That is a wrap. I am finishing this up probably right at the kickoff with Thursday night football. So good timing on my part. Our guy Brian Drake will be back for the Monday reaction video. Hopefully a lot of the hashtag analysis works out for you. Oh, by the way, if you're still listening, thanks to certain people, I was going to get some shout out. So maybe I'll do that next week. And maybe that could entice people to give us more good reviews. But I saw a couple of good newer reviews. So thank you for that. If you're out there and you did it, please give us a good review. It always helps out. But of course, thanks for subscribing to begin with. That's a wrap on this podcast. Good luck this week. And we'll catch you next time.

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