Weekend Edition: How far will AI investment go?

Friday 14th November 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Historically America’s big-tech firms have seemed like a safe bet for investors. They had strong revenue streams, and they were ploughing profits back into innovative ideas for future revenue growth. That’s changed since the pandemic with the rapid growth of AI, with firms embarking on debt-fuelled expansion in what Phil suggests is a good old-fashioned land-grab.

Lincoln Valentine is a senior analyst for international equities at JBWere. He agrees that there’s a land grab going on, and debts are rising, but he says their earnings continue to grow and their valuations reflect that. The question is, what happens next? When returns don’t match the level of investment made, or when one or two players start to cut their spending? 

Phil asks where are the risks, who has the edge and how long will it all last? It’s a high stakes game, that nobody dares to ignore.

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