What’s going on with B.C. Conservatives

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6:10she could lose official opposition status. And the bottom line takeaway is that the NDP in British Columbia haven't won that many elections, even though they've been in power recently for almost 10 years. And they always win when the center right splits. And the center right has never been more split than it is now. And that's why we think Premier David Eby might be heading to an early election out here and we all have election fever, which as you know, Matt can be very contagious. There's no vaccine or cure for a election. I'm not a doctor, but it is. It does spread quickly. There's not even an ointment for it. And the Premier out here may be sending us to an election very soon did to take advantage of this. How long can Carolyn finally hang on? I mean, she could say you can leave you don't like the way the path that I'm taking. But when people are leaving and they set up a rival party, how long can she hang on as leader of the Conservatives? Yeah, I think a normal politician would have quit by now. She, the parties dropped eight points in the polls. The Premier has jumped 10 points in his personal popularity.

7:12The fundraising is down. The MLA's are leaving. But she doesn't have anything else to do. And she has long wanted to be the leader of this party. And the speculation here is that she would rather watch it burn to the ground and be left with a handful of pure, conservative, far-right social culture warriors, then leave for the good of the party, if you believe in that kind of thing. And so it's possible this split is permanent. And some folks are looking to this new party of MLA's who've left to have to basically come up with a new vehicle because the BC Conservatives, the driver of the BC Conservatives refuses to leave the car. And we'll see how long, how many election cycles that might actually take to kind of readjust the electorate here. What does the new party stand for? Do we know? I said it doesn't have a name yet, but... We call it the Peter Party out here because it's Peter Milibar as the MLA who's leading it. That's going to catch on if he doesn't come up with a name soon, I think.

8:14But the Peter Party picked a pack of peved politicians is kind of... I see. We're all making jokes out here. But it stands for a more middle road center right focus on the economy, leave the social issues at the door, lower the deficit. What we call traditional conservatism. And they don't want to fight the culture war as it's called now. And some people say that's kind of an antiquated view and you need to fight things like land acknowledgments and explicit language in books and that kind of thing. That's part of the new conservative movement, but that's not the direction that this new party wants to go. When we were in BC in May, I spoke with the Premier, but you and I also spoke. And we talked about how David E.B.'s popularity was quite low. Has he said to Giff Baskett to Carolyn Jindley? Do you know more? Just a couple of months ago, we thought he was toast. Done like dinner. Angus Reed has a pull out this morning saying he's jumped to 10 points

9:17since Findley became leader of the conservatives and Trump has become into play again. So yeah, he looks like a guy who was writing his own kind of obituary to a guy who if he was to go to an election now, which is speculation is in the next few weeks, he's going to do this. Do you think there's the real possibility of that? There is a real possibility of that. That he could win a supermajority here at like just a thunderous majority. And in that case, he's... This is the greatest thing to ever happen to David E.B. Is the election of a new conservative leader. And usually it's not how this plays out. A new party gets a new leader. They get momentum. There's a honeymoon period. The exact opposite is happening here. Just before I let you go, what do you think conservatives elsewhere in this country are taking from what is happening to the conservatives in BC? You mentioned the reaction to Carolyn Findley winning. In part, some of that reaction came from from Pierre Paulier, who praised her. And took some shots against the people he called

10:20what liberal lobbyists who were working for the rivals in that leadership race. So what might conservatives elsewhere in the country take from this situation? Well, I think they should take that this is the looming civil war that is going to grip conservative parties and different provinces and federally. Do you want to stay centrist? Are you going to move to the farther right and fight the culture wars? Is it a new movement of online kind of influencers and conservative voices that feel left out of the establishment that are going to try and flex their muscle and influence the future of their party? And if so, what does that mean? And are they in the tent or not? And these things played out here and they're still playing out and they're playing out in Ottawa around Paulier as well. And there's no easy path. But the worst path would be what the BC conservatives have just done. So it's kind of a cautionary tale of perhaps not, you know, don't do this. Try to avoid the situation that the BC finds itself in.

11:22Rest, hydrate, cold compress. I mean, there's some of the things you might apply to the election fever that you might be feeling right now. We will talk again if this snap election happens. In the meantime, Rob could speak with you as always. Thank you. Thank you for having me on Rob Shaw, political correspondent with Czech News. He's also the host of the Daily Podcast, Political Capital. We reached him in Victoria. This has been the current podcast. You can hear our show Monday to Friday on CBC Radio 1 at 8.30am at all time zones. So you can also listen online at cbc.ca slash the current or on the CBC Listen app or wherever you get your podcasts. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.