Who will have the biggest scoring bump?

0:00This is straight good to suck Xander and I'm down and dunk. This is Jay-Wheel and I'm down and dunk. They had. Here we go. I'm Isaiah Hardenstein and I'm down and dunk. I hope like Savior of Bess Flau is the one. I wanted the dorky temper has been been going pretty well. I'm Aaron Wiggins and I'm down and dunk. I'm Chad Hombren and I'm down and dunk. I'm Mark Degnell and I'm down and dunk. That's it. He just does a big smile and like it. I feel, but if I got to be here with down and dunk, be here with you. I'm Alice Truso and I'm down to dunk. I'm AJ Mitchell and I'm down and dunk. This is Isaiah Joe and I'm down to dunk. Oh jeez, are you gonna sing it good enough for me to guess it or? P&A in no. P&A in no. Jeez. I'm sweetened. Name two famous open homies. Myself and J.L. Williams. Is that a crazy isn't it? All my friends call me Bob. Where is Rachel? All right. You need scurry. You live the whole life. Plane? Plane. This is Kason Wallace and I'm down to dunk. This is Lou Dorit and I'm down to Dorit.

1:00True blood, Oklahoma. That's right. Pretty exciting if you ask me. This is J.L. World Champion J.L. And I'm down to dunk. And E. Burgers. Ooh. Welcome to Down to Dunk. I'm your host Andrew Schleck from part of the athletic podcast and that work. Before I get to my good friend Alex Spears, I want to tell you about two other friends of mine. Aaron Andrew. Reese of Shelter Insurance. Give them a call or text today. 405-7735-0-0. Or 405-478-7714 today. Are you in ZERD? You should be asking yourself the question. Am I in ZERD? Am I in ZERD by a good insurance company? Like Shelter Insurance? You should be asking yourself that question. Do I need better home? Car? Boat? Lake House. Whatever insurance you need, they got you covered. Even life insurance, like they did for the L-man. So give them a call or text today and support the people. That support down to Doug with me.

2:03I don't win this day. Morning. He has my good friend Alex Spears. Alex, oh, what's up? What's up? Good morning, everyone. Good morning to everyone. To all the dunkers. It's a, you know, college football season has started. If you're a Sooner's fan, you're pretty happy. I think at the Cowboys fan, you are in a dark place, I would say, but that also means that like, listen, the museum B.A. is right around the corner. I thought you were going to say something positive. Like, hey, but it can only go up from here. Oh, no, I have no. No, I have, I have discarded this season. Listen, every prediction that we had about the home state Cowboys was worthless. It's like, dude, is it completely? It's crazy. But the athletic had a really good, like longer article yesterday about Texas Tech. And just like how much money they've pumped into that program. And you read that and you come away thinking like, dude, Oklahoma State is so screwed. It feels like they are like years behind Texas Tech. Yeah, dude. Yes. Whenever you have, I mean, they were living in the Stone Age for the last like four years basically.

3:07Yeah. And like are just now trying to get into it. And it's like, uh-oh. Jeez, man. Yeah, it'd be Tulsa. Uh-oh. But the NBA is right around the corner. A bunch of the guys are down at TCU doing like a little mini camp with Kenny Hustle. So that's fun. I see these posts about like, I'm so glad that a die Mara is like running and working out. Like, what did we expect? Like, we'd see like pictures of him like eating cheeseburgers or something? Like, I don't know. It's just funny. Um, but yeah, he, it's, it's great. It just means like basketball is right around the corner, immediate days around the corner. So it's, uh, it's all very exciting. Um, the old like bit of like thunder, he news is like, innocent even news. But Zach Lone John Holland drew a pod about the rookie extensions and talked about Kason.

4:08And he mentioned that Kason, when he talked, when Zach talked to other executives that they were between 25 and 33 million annually, four cases next deal. I am very intrigued to see where this goes. It's what I thought after hearing that because, um, I don't know the thunder can pay him 33. I mean, they could, they could definitely, they could do it. It's not a matter of like all the, the aprons won't allow us to do it. They can do it. I'm just curious to see what they will do with a guy like Kason Wallace who will get a big payday. And like, do you wait for a strict infreasancy? Because we've kind of seen how that goes with players. The thunder have not really taken that route the last time they took that route. And it's counter. Um, and it did not pay off for them. And so it's like, do you do that with Kason? Do you try to get a deal done now?

5:10Um, I am fascinated to see where that all lands because he's become quite important with the guys who left the roster this summer. Yeah. I, I've been thinking a lot about, uh, Denver lately and just like the steps that led them to where they are currently. And trying to envision like, is, is there potential downside with a case in extension where you could get yourself in a Christian round situation? Like what if, like I don't think his defense is going to follow off unless he, he's injured with so much better defensively than Christian is. He is, but like if you sign him to 33 million and he's shooting like 33% from three, which I don't think is out of the realm of possibility. I don't think Kason has proved himself to be like a solid shooter. And he's averaging eight points a game. Uh-huh. You have a, you have a similar issue where you are going to have to pay to get off of that guy. No one is going to want to pay 30 million a year for a guy who's scoring eight points to gain and shooting 33% from three.

6:14Like you could very quickly, even if he's a great defender, you could quickly get yourself into a similar situation. Yeah. He's got 35. He's got a little bit worse at shooting and almost every spot on the court each year, which is not. Yeah, like I just, I just say all that says like as good as we think Kason is, there is a limit. Like you, you, you are hearing 25 to 33 million. Like that sounds crazy to me based on what we've seen so far. 33 million would be wild. And also, and I understand like the, the cap environment and all of that is, is different.

7:16But still, it feels scary. Yeah, and also like looking at what happened with restricted free agency this summer, I'm more willing to go to restricted free agency because unlike in the past, I feel like teams are getting actual value back when they don't match now. Yeah, which just wasn't, didn't feel like the case in the past. I mean, Walker Kessler going for, you know, two first and two swaps. But even Denver getting an unprotected future first for Peyton Watson, I know that everyone hates that deal and there is a lot of context. But like for someone like Peyton Watson, who again has had like six good weeks of NBA basketball, just getting an unprotected first is something. It's not like they just lost him for nothing. Again, still a bad deal. They should have kept him. So I don't know, I'm just, I'm more willing. If that really is what the range is, I'm more willing to go to restricted free agency.

8:17One, because I just don't buy that. Yeah. And we're going to talk about today, because one of our little stat events, whatever we're calling it, is whether he's going to average 10 points a game or not. And when you, I obviously they lost players with Dort Wiggins as a Joe, all those guys contributed scoring wise. But they're also injecting so much more offense into this team with McCain and AJ Mitchell taking on bigger roles. And those are both, both of those guys can score more per game than any of the guys who left. Both. And he sure and starts as well. And I'm just like not convinced that we're going to see some like fourth year breakout from case and offensively. No, we might see flashes like we saw last year in February, but I just think there's a chance like we get to the end of next year. And he has a relatively similar stat line to last season. You know, it'll be, it'll be a little bit improved.

9:18And it'll kind of come down to like what did he shoot from three? He's still obviously going to be a all defense caliber defensive player. Yeah. But I am super interested to see what another team might be willing to offer him. We have to, we do have to remember that like 30 million is like 18% of the cap, I think. Is that change how you think about it? Not really because they just have so many other contracts locked in. Like there's just, there's still only so many slots you can fill. Like you say that that's 18% of the cap. Okay, well that means that like, Che is what is shea? He's 30, I mean, he's going to hit the 35%. So he's 35, then you have chat and J. W. They're at 25, 25, 25. Yeah, they're 25% of the cap. Yeah. Yeah, so I mean, just those guys right there, you're 85% of the cap. And then you're trying to figure out how to fit in Caruso.

10:20Yeah. He's already making 20 million. Case in, AJ and Jared McCain. And Jared McCain. And J will, you're after for both those two guys. I mean, all of this. They're not keeping everybody. Like they're just straight up aren't. I mean, like you can't, like just what we laid out just right there. Like they're not going to be able to keep, like I would be really surprised if like I heart and Caruso were both on the team in the next like two years. I agree with that. At the same time, like I would rather have both of those guys at their current contracts over giving case and wall almost like 30 million. Interesting. I would rather pay Caruso at 32 years old 20 million year than case and 30 million year. Unless we see some like massive offensive explosion, which I'm not anticipating.

11:22Listen, we'll talk about it with our, I mean for a, for a non-center. Let's just imagine for a second, they, they he really did get like four years 120 or five years 150. For a non-center scoring single digits per game when was the last time a player like that has gotten that much money? Like because Dyson Daniels had a good scoring season before he guys extension. Christian Brown had a good scoring season. He was scoring a 15-a game. Yeah, 15-a game. Yeah. And if it's going to happen like. Yeah. Yes, all the things I just said, but, but they did lose three key guys who were scoring somewhere between you know eight and 12 points per game. So if it's going to happen, this is why I'm just like willing to wait unless they are certain that like no, he is going to have this fourth year jump. Yeah. And it will be that expensive by the end of the year. I'm just not convinced yet. Yeah. I, I mean, I'm so intrigued.

12:25I'm so intrigued. Also, I know that everyone is pencil then case and as a starter. I have pretty much as well. But I'm still just, I just remain curious about AJ taking that spot too. And if he's not, then you really can't do it. If you're not solidly convinced that he's your future starter, you can't give him 30 million. Are you solidly convinced that he is? Yeah. I'm pretty confident just because I feel like it's the cleanest transition from Dort. That I would be, but I'm not opposed. Like even you guys bringing up Jared McCain, I do think when you start looking, okay, so I wanted to bring this up really quickly. Because we've been talking about the starter for a while now. We've been mostly focusing on AJ and Kason. But you and McCleay had that, had a brief discussion about Jared McCain. I'm sure if the, if the off season goes long enough, you'll eventually see a podcast titled, a, a dimara starter.

13:27We'll eventually get to all of them. But an important point of this conversation that just is accepted is that the other four spots are locked in. Right? It's SGA, Dub, Chet and I, aren't. How many regular season minutes have those four played together? Oh, total. Yeah. What would you guess? I don't know. 200. They've played 300 regular season minutes together. Yeah, it's not much. Which is crazy. Just as like a point of reference. Mm-hmm. Well, just last year there were 74. And that, by the way, that's over the last two seasons that they played 300 minutes together. Just last year there were 74 four man lineups who played at least 300 minutes together. Katie, Shenguin, Jabari and Amin Thompson, they played almost 1200 minutes together. Just last season. Mm-hmm. Go bear, Randall, Deven Chenzone, McDaniels. They played over a thousand minutes together last season. Yeah. Like, and I'm saying this as a, as a, as a point of excitement, the fact that like we haven't actually seen these four guys play together all that much.

14:35And in those three-inch minutes, they were almost a plus 20 net rating. Like, I almost want to say like it doesn't matter. Like, they're, they're, they're, they, they, oh wait, no, keep going. Sorry. I'm, I'm trying to look up how many minutes they all played in the playoffs together. So they, they played 247 in the playoffs over the last two seasons. So they almost played the same amount in just those two playoff runs as they have in the entire regular, two regular seasons. Yeah. Which is wild. In the, in the, in the, in the year that they won the title. Yeah. So that would have been the majority of it because it's 247 overall. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But I just think, I mean, it's so obvious when you stop to think about it, but it's still so crazy that for a team that we feel like so confident about, we feel like we know so much about. That core four has like still barely played together in comparison to like any other starting lineup in the NBA that we're familiar with.

15:38Yeah. It's true. And they've had the best record in the NBA in the last years. Yeah. But one thing I was going to say is you look at that starting lineup and like, you look at what they're good at where, where the limits are. I do think you could make a case for Jared McCain because that starting lineup does need shooting. Yeah. And that, that's where case in shooting because if, if case in is, can shoot, then I think he's an obvious choice for that starting because he brings something on both sides and he doesn't really take away anything offensively from you. It allows your two creators to have the ball. He can stand in the corner and hopefully hit his shots. Yeah. But if he is shooting like 32% from three, that's a huge issue in that starting lineup. And I would totally understand the case for someone like Jared McCain. Yeah. I don't think it will happen, but yes, I can understand it.

16:38Yeah, I don't think it will happen either. I can understand it. Okay. Let's go through our event categories, Al. Yeah. Okay. So this is going to, I'm going to sound like I don't know what this thing is that I created for a second, but just let us get into it. And then you'll understand it better. Basically, like we're having all these conversations throughout the summer where we sound very confident on a lot of different players. So, but this game is going to try to force us to like really, you know, put our foot down and then say like, okay, this is what I actually think is going to happen. And so I've come up with all these different categories. They're like stat events, for instance, like who is going to be third in points per game for the Thunder? Because obviously, SGA is going to be number one. Dub is likely going to be number two, though you could make an argument for someone else. I want to know who you think is going to be third because there's the obvious choice, which would be Chet.

17:40But I just want to know, like do you think there's, would you, where do you feel strongly enough that you might actually say someone like AJ or even Jared McCain? And so there's a bunch of stat events like that that I've come up with, 13 of them. And we're going to go through them all. And then we're going to do this in a draft format. So the one that you feel most confident about, like I feel pretty good that I know who's going to be first in three pointers made for game. Then you could pick that, tell me who that's going to be. The other person could pick their person and they'll go back and forth. So I'm just going to read off all these first. And then as we go through, I'll give you some context by telling you what happened last year. So here are the categories. Who's going to be third in points per game? Who's going to be first in three pointers made per game? Who's going to be third in rebounds per game? Third in assist per game? Third in blocks per game? Who's going to have the highest plus minus, according to cleaning the glass? Who's going to be fourth in free throw attempts per game?

18:40Over under 10 points per game for Cason. Who's going to have the highest points per game off the bench? Who's going to have the fewest minutes played? Non two way. Who's going to be fourth in total dunks? What is going to be the best high minute two-man lineup? So over 500 minutes played together. And then who's going to have the highest individual scoring game? Non SGA dub addition. So as we go through, I'll let you pick first, but you'll pick whichever one you want and then I'll give some context and then you can tell me who your pick is. Let's just start with third in points per game. Okay, so last year SGA, obviously number one, 31.1 points per game. Chet and dub tied for second with 17.1 and then AJ was fourth with 13.6 per game. So how are you feeling about this one, Andrew?

19:40I think this is easily Chet homebrewed. Okay, so you think it's one of the easier ones on the board? I do. I feel like Chet's stock is pretty low right now. Obviously what happened in the San Antonio series paired with the 2K strength rating. I mean, his stock has been, this is probably lower than it's been in a long time. But people, I think people forget that this is a really good guy. He's a really good guy. He's a really good guy. I mean, this is an all in B.A. player, right? This is a guy who's going to score and he's coming into the season healthy. He had a rough couple of years, you know, with injuries and has had like some weird injuries and his body was not used to recovering from injury either.

20:41And so hopefully he remains healthy. And if he does, I think he's going to have another really good year. And I think that offensively he just has the potential to do more. And if he does like speed up his three or if any of those things happen that we are hoping happens, then I think this is like a, he's easily the third. He could be upwards of a 18 points per game. So why I chose this and why I think this is still interesting to talk about is two years ago when Dub was there, scored 15 points per game. Last year without Dub and without AJ for a lot of the season, he only got up to 17 points per game. I just think that there's a chance if AJ takes on the type of offensive role that we're expecting, which for in my mind is like 30 plus minutes per game. I could easily see AJ being like 15, 16 points per game.

21:41Yeah. And in that case, where they're like right there. Right. Where they're like neck and neck. And I think that there's a chance that AJ could be the third, could be third in points per game. Yeah. Now the argument going back to chat is like, well actually having all of these creators, more creators on the floor is probably better for chat. Like he's probably going to get a lot more easier attempts than he got last year playing with Dub, AJ, Jared McCain. Like all those guys are going to be able to find him in more advantageous positions than the thunder were able to do last year, which we saw some of that in the playoffs, what happened. So I do think there's a chance that even with this injection of offense, that still might actually help chat more than I'm anticipating. But I'm going to put AJ here for my choice. Yeah. Okay. So I'm going to go with, let's just, I'll just go to the next one.

22:43First and three pointers made per game. Yeah. This is an interesting one because the top two guys from last year are gone. Isaiah Joe hit two and a half per game, Dort hit 1.9 per game. Then you go to Jared McCain at 1.8, SGA at 1.7. And then of course everyone else on the team is available as well. I chose this because I wanted to highlight just how important I think Jared McCain shooting is going to be. Yeah. Because they need three point shooting. Now one name that's not listed on here is Dub. You know, Dub is certainly a name you could choose. How many? Actually, I have them right up here. Wow. His basketball reference page is permanently on my screen. So he was at 1.8 the previous season, so two years ago. So he was kind of right where McCain was last year. I think he'd be a potential option. I think SGA is a potential option. If you think he's going to develop any more with his three point shot, I guess you could consider Kason.

23:43Like they have a lot of guys on their team that are in that range of like 1.5 to 1.8. We need someone to hit more than that though. Yeah. I think the clearest option for that is going to be Jared McCain. And it's the reason why I think Jared McCain is just like so critical to this team. Because even more than, you know, like we love AJ. AJ is great. But I'm not convinced yet that like AJ is going to be a reliable three point shooter. Whereas I'm already wildly convinced of that with McCain. Oh, yeah, he is. He is that. And like per 36, AJ took four threes again. Yeah. You know, I mean, he's just not the three point volume guy. So I think we could be in a situation where Jared McCain is matching. If not exceeding Isaiah Joe from last year in terms of made threes per game. Because his shooting is going to be that important. But who do you think if you had to choose someone else, who would be your next choice?

24:44Yeah, this is tough. Because it's, do you believe in cases of ability to shoot? Do we think that he will take more than he has in the past? Because he's not only a guy who hasn't taken a lot of threes. He's just a guy who just doesn't take a lot of shots. I mean, he's taken seven a game. He played 26 minutes a game last season. He took seven shots a game. Okay. It's very low usage. Do we think that's going to increase? I can see you're going to suddenly just be like, like, dork. I think that J. Dubb is the option here. Mark is always super encouraging of a lot of guys to take more threes. Mark believes in taking more threes. I think Dubb is like clearly somebody that could take more threes. Especially if it's case in or AJ, both guys are more prone to creating off the drill.

25:44Creating off the drill and driving than dork was. And so I do think like, and although like Dubb is a guy that can do that as well, I do think it's going to lead to some more open shots for Dubb. So I would take, I would take Dubb as the next guy there. But I do think McCain is probably going to be the one who gets it. I'm trying to decide if it would be a good or bad thing if the answer to this what turns out to be Chet. Like on some, on some level, it would be awesome that Chet is taking more threes. But I'm wondering like, how high could he realistically get that might just mean that the team isn't shooting threes in general? I think it would be, yeah, I could see that. Chet would be an amazing option. Like that would be great. His rookie season when he was like the center for the team, he took four a game. And then he's three point six and three and a half per game. The last two seasons. And so what can they get from Chet?

26:47I just don't know that they can get a whole, like, I get see Dubb taking six a game or seven a game and then making a good percentage of those. I just have, I just don't know that we can get Chet to that volume. Although I'd love to see him take six a game, but I just don't think we're getting there. Which Chet this season. I mean, just between Isaiah Joe and Lou Dort leaving, that is 11.43s per game. It's a lot of threes. And you throw in Wiggins. Wiggins took 4.2 per game last year. I know he didn't play as much, but still, that's like 15 threes that they shot per game. Yeah. And it just vanished. And I know it was like kind of funny for me to mention, but it starts at the beginning of the show. But it starts as one of the knockdown shooters they have on the team now. Yeah. And they're going to need him to take threes. Because when you think about, like you mentioned, AJ is going to take a ton of minutes. He's not a volume three guy.

27:47And then, like, Topic is going to play two. Like, what is, like, Topic's not a guy is going to take a ton of threes. And so Bennett is really one of the only guys that could come in and take a large percentage of his own shots from three. Okay. Where do you want to go next, Andrew? Let's go to, hmm. Let's go to a fewest minutes played, not two way. Okay. A fewest minutes play, not two way. Now, this is not a prediction of injury. Okay. That's probably how it will end up. But I just want your honest thought about, like, let's assume a health. Who do you think will play the least out of the standard 15 man roster last year? Obviously Thomas Sorberd didn't play any. Topic ended up playing 160 minutes and then Oos played 295 minutes. Assuming we're turning injuries off this year, wouldn't that be nice?

28:47Yeah. I think it's between three guys. And they are all three pretty big mysteries because we've seen one of them play some. And we haven't seen the other two play in the NBA yet. So it's like Topic, Mara, or Sorber, to me are like the three big candidates for this. And so I will say the fewest minutes will be to a die Mara. Okay. I just think he has a lot of development to do. And it's not to me necessarily like an indictment on the rest of his career. But like Thomas Sorberd has been with the team. He knows the coaching staff, knows the expectations. You know, there's a track record there of guys that have been hurt that come right step right in and play well.

29:47And then like Topic is probably still like injury related poor guy. But I do think that they need to figure out what they have in him this year. More than they do with Mara right away. And so and also with Sorber too, you've already lost a year with Sorber. So to me, it's probably more crucial that you learn it as much as you can about Sorber this year since you've already lost a year. I think it could be really close though between Sorber and Mara at the end of the day between those guys. And it could go either way. But I'll be with Mara. I tend to lean that way too. Like choosing between Topic and Sorber is tough. I kind of agree with you that yes, they have to see what they have with Topic. If they don't, which we'll learn this in the next month or so, if they don't pick up his fourth year extension, that would obviously change a lot.

30:47Because then the motivation to like really find out something. Then they're going to, I mean, they will just move them. But I do think that's like a possibility. It is not impossible. Like we've talked about this the summer is like he is not cheap. Like he's going to be a guy that is like pretty expensive. And if you could get anything for him, you would probably just, you should probably just go get it. If you're, if he is, if you're not going to pick up his option, like you should just go get whatever you can for him. Yeah. For Sorber, I think the argument is that like they already have I Heart, they already have J will. If they're going to play J will with any of these centers, he's going to have to play the four. What if they learn that like, man, this just doesn't work with J will at the four or with, or J will with a non spacing center. And we love J will we're going to just have to keep playing him at the center position and those center minutes dry up.

31:51I think that's why I would tend to lean Sorber because I still have this belief that this team loves Topic and is going to want to truly find out what they have. I think they're going to pick up his option. Yeah. This is based on nothing. I mean, we have 160 minutes, but I just, that's my gut feeling about Topic. Yeah. I'm with you too. If he's healthy, he's going to play and they will find out what they have in him. I mean, you spend a lottery pick on the guy. I just don't think that you can go into the summer next summer and be like, well, we played him 300 minutes and still not sure what this is. You just can't do that. Okay. Next one. Man, there's a, we're starting to get to the ones where I'm less comfortable with my answer. But one that is just a fun one, no matter what you choose, is the highest individual scoring game, non SGA or dub edition.

32:56Yeah. So last year, the winner of this was I Heart, 33 points, Caruso, 31 points in the playoffs, Chet, 31 points and J. Will, 30 points. I think, for me, it's AJ or McCain. Yeah. And I think I'm going to go. I think I will go with AJ. Yeah. I want to go with McCain because I mean, I think it easily could be him. He has that type of explosive offensive game where, you know, he could go in and just hit his first three or four threes and then you're often running and March just leaves him in. For like 35 minutes in a game. And like, if Dort could have a 40 burger, there's no reason why McCain could have a 40 burger. A Dorty 40. A Dorty 40, yeah.

33:57But I think consistently night to night, AJ is going to have that ceiling. Yeah. He could score 30 in any game game. I mean, we kind of saw it in the playoffs, especially against some of these bad teams. If they're like, want to give Shay or Dub a night off, I just think there's going to be a lot of opportunities for AJ to be like the guy. And he could easily have multiple 30 point games. Yeah. If he's playing a lot. Oh, yeah. Yeah. There's no question about that for me. I think he's that kind of player. Okay. It is funny, though, that I heart is was number one in this last year. I would not have gotten that. I would have been. Remember that game. I would have not. I do remember the game, but I was it was. I would not have guessed that that would have been the one. I'm going with chat. So I feel crazy. I mean, he scored 31 in a game last year.

34:59Yeah. I mean, he's he's fully capable of scoring above 30. And like he has rookie season. And we all remember this game. The game against Golden State. He had 36. You know, like could we rediscover some of that magic with chat this season? I think they could. So yeah, I'll take I'll take chat there. Okay. All right. So it's back to you, Andrew. Boardy shores. I will do. Hmm. How about. How that one feels a little bit. Let's do third in a sys per game. Okay. So last year, S.J. led the team 6.6 sys per game. Dub was at 5.5. AJ was at 3.6, but this is more of a topitch question because topitch in only like 16 minutes per game averaged 4.4 assists.

36:00Yeah. And if you think that he's going to play a decent number of minutes, he is going to get a sys. And so the question just is like specialty. How big of a. Yeah. How big of a jump do we see from AJ? Does Dub take a little bit of a step back or does he, you know, move forward as well? So who would you choose for third in a sys per game? AJ, just like not even close. So like the topitch thing is being thrown off by like the last couple of games that were outliers. Like he, when he played like 15 minutes against Detroit, he had 4 assists. When he had, you know, 9 minutes a game, which is definitely could have as he has like 2 or 3 assists, you know, he had 12 minutes and 2 assists. I just think it's just a lot to ask of top to average more than AJ. And if AJ is going to be one of like the core 4 guys, to me, he'll be closer to 4 assists per game.

37:02I just think he's going to have the ball in his hands a lot more. There's a lot of offensive weapons for him to use. And so I do think that he will be the guy to have the third most assist. And I didn't include him on here, but just one little spot behind AJ was I Heart with 3.5. Yeah, that would be the other guy. And if you were to ask, like who are the best passers on the team, it's probably Heart and Topitch. I'll probably do the two best like passers on the team. So it is possible that it is Heart, but I still think Top will have the ball more. And also, I just wonder, like Heart had, you know, at the end of the season, he had, I mean, Isaiah Joe is like where a lot of his assists went to. And then he's kind of getting the same chemistry with McCain. I mean, if you're betting on like Jared McCain making the most threes, like maybe the best bet is I Heart.

38:04Because Heart is a guy who gets those guys open a lot with his screening and his passing off those screens. And all of that. So yeah, that's true. That's not a bad, that's not a bad bet. If you think McCain is just going to be amazing this year, that Heart could be one of the guys that gets him open a lot. It does feel crazy. Even thinking that Topitch could be third in a cisper game. He just, I mean, he had that last game where he had 14 assists. Yeah. Which was a, but if they did play him this season, like if you told me right now, he's going to play 65 games this year. And he's going to, when he's on the court, he'll average 19 minutes a game. Oh, if he averaged 19 minutes a game, then yeah, I think he would be the guy because he would average like five, four and a half and four rebounds.

39:04Yeah. Like that would, it would be that kind of stat line. That's, that's too risky for me. So I'm going with I heart. Okay. My next one. Oh, I'm going to get this one over with Kason over under 10 points per game. I'm going, I'm going under. I don't, I don't think it's that crazy either. So let, so by, by year, 6.8, his rookie season, 8.4 year to 8.6 year three. He was 9.7 post all star break. There's a lot of reasons to think it's going to go up. Mm-hmm. Dort, Wiggins, Joe, all gone. There's a lot of options. There are a lot of possibilities there for Kason. But the things that's that is holding me back is that one, yes, you lost those three guys, but the two guys you are adding in that are going to be taking up, you know, soaking up a lot of those minutes are way better offensive players than any of the guys who left.

40:15Yeah. Jared McCain and AJ Mitchell are just like leagues better than any of the guys that left. Yeah. Although shout out to Isaiah Joe, Isaiah Joe is very good offensively. So I don't think it's automatic that Kason is going to come into the season and all of a sudden averaging like 13 points a game or something. I, I do think he will improve, but do you? I, I do think he will improve scoring wise, but the more I think about it, I think a lot of that is going to go to, oh, by the way, Jalen Williams is coming back to. Yeah. AJ Mitchell and Jared McCain, I think that is where all of those points are going to be soaked up by or who is going to soak up all those points that left the team. So I'm going under for Kason, 10 points per game. I still think he's a very good player, but I'm just not convinced that he's suddenly going to become a significantly better offensive player in this environment where they're just that the team is shifting towards a more offensively minded roster.

41:21And I think that that works against Kason unless he suddenly becomes a knockdown shooter because there will be opportunities for that. Yeah, I don't even think he needs to be knocked down. I just think he needs to be just a little bit more efficient in order to I think yes, he will score around 10 points per game and over 10 points per game. I don't think he's going to be at like the 13, 14 or whatever, but I do think he'll be over 10 per game. And I think it'll be more of a result, not necessarily of like more, a lot more shots, but just better efficiency. He's 43% from the field last year. Well, that's the other thing about him starting like I actually think he has more opportunities coming off the bench. A lot of the time like if you stick him in that starting lineup with Shay, J. Dubb. I mean, I think he's clearly the fifth option in that starting lineup. Yeah, yeah, between him and hard.

42:22Whereas if he's playing more in bench lineups, I don't know. I think there would be more opportunities, but I think if they're going to use them the way I think they're going to use him, they're really leaning in to him replacing Dort. Yeah, I just think there are a lot of opportunities for wide open shot wide open threes in that starting unit. How many wide open threes to Dort take? Just a boat load. And Kason like from the corners is a career 40% now he wasn't he was 36% last year, which is like quite bad. Yeah, from from the corners, but he his his rookie year he shot 47% from the corners. If he can get back to if he can even that out to the 40% that he is as for his career. To me that that's what gets him there. And I mean, he just from two just needs to be better.

43:23You know. Okay, 40 shores. Okay, let's go to. Fourth and dunks. Fourth in dunks. Last year, chat number one, 138, I heart 78, Brandon Carlson, 42, Kason 29. I made it fourth in dunks because of course J. Dub is not there, but previous seasons, he had around 70 plus dunks. Yeah. So you're really trying to figure out like is any like his case in really my next best option or. Here's what the question is really about. Do you think either of these centers gets enough playing time? I know. Because 29 dunks isn't that much if you're a dimara and you're seven, four, whatever. Yeah. And you just that's all you're probably going to do when you are on the court.

44:25Yeah, can can Mara be fourth in dunks and fewest minutes? I don't know. You're hedging your bets. Has it ever been done? Does it matter? No, it doesn't matter. But has it ever been done? I will take Mara. All right. I will take Mara. Which seems stupid, but I'm going to do it. No, I think that's that's why I asked the question because I. And you are hedging your bets because on the one hand, yeah, it's very easy to imagine the scenario where Mara doesn't play a lot of minutes this season. However, if he did end up playing like eight to ten minutes a game, one, I don't think that would be by the end of the season. I don't think that would be shocking. That would be awesome. He's seven, four. And he's not. I can see them finding minutes. They found minutes for everyone. Brooks Barnhart's are played 500 minutes last year.

45:26Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I know they were injuries. But if he played that, like how could he not get 29 dunks? I agree. I think he will get. I think we'll get more than that. So just real quick on wide open threes last year. So the closest defender is six plus feet away. Dort led the team 2.9 per game. Shot 40%. J will number two 2.8 per game. 39% Jared McCain third. 2.6 38% as a Joe 2.6 shot 46% on wide open threes. That's very good. That's that's a case in 2.1 per game shot 32.7%. Oh, the fish out. Alcruso 2.0 31%. Alcruso was really bad from three in the regular season.

46:27Okay, I'm going to mirror our selections for fewest minutes. I'm going to go Sorber for fourth and dunks. Same idea. I guess I'm just saying that I believe that one of these centers will end up playing a decent amount, a chunk of minutes this season. And I think that will lead them to dunking more than case in walls. And Sorber likes to dunk it as well. He better. He does. Gotta get more than 29. I mean, case in a good dunker. Oh, yeah. He is a good dunker. In my head, he dunked it less in transition than the previous year. I don't know. One thing I did notice though is on basketball reference, you can look at how often a guy got blocked. And I don't know if this means anything to anyone. But I like looking at the blocked to end one ratio. So like Shay got blocked 57 times.

47:28He also had 61 and ones. AJ Mitchell, he was blocked 26 times. He still had 18 and ones. Just showing that he is able to draw some fouls when he gets in those situations. Case in was blocked 40 times. He had three and ones. Which I just felt like that matched my eye test because they were just like so many times when he would get around the room. And you're like, oh, case in is way smaller than I thought. And I am willing to admit. But when he gets an open lane, like I mean, he's thrown down some of the best dunks. Yeah. And he's him and Isaiah Joe, honestly. Yeah, Joe is good for like one a year. Yeah. But it's a really good one. It's a really good one. He saves all his energy for that one. Yeah. Case in had 29 dunks the year prior to that. But he had nine more games this past year.

48:29So there's that. Okay. Before we get to our next category, we're going to take quick break and tell you about our friends at Bomarkia. But we'll be we got to take the break first. So we'll be right back. Ever back after that quick break. Let me tell you about my friends over at Bob Moore Kia. Right now at Bobmore Kia, you can get a Kia Sportage 0.9% for 60 months and $750 customer cash on a new 2026 Kia Sportage EX. You can also get a Kia Serrento. A lovely vehicle, $3,000 customer cash on a new 2026 Kia Serrento LX. You can also get a Sportage. You can lease a Sportage, a hybrid Sportage for 2.99 a month for 36 months on 10,000 miles per year. Great vehicles. I was just at Bobmore Kia the other day.

49:30Got a different Kia Carnival that I'm driving around. It's got the captain seats in the middle. Then my kids, I have three kids. And so you have two captain seats in the middle that they just fight over. But you can put your feet up. They have like, they're like little loungers in the middle of this minivan. So it's it's delightful. So please go check out Bobmore Kia. They're on Northwest Expressway in between Council and Rockwell. Great people. Awesome, awesome cars. And SUVs and minivans. I'm dead serious if you're in the market for minivan. This is the only one that you should look at. Don't look at it any others. This is the one. Go check out Bobmore Kia. Okay, next category, Al. Okay, this one is kind of similar to fourth and dunks, which is third and blocks per game. So last year, Chet was led the team, 1.9 per game. I heart was at 0.8, SGA was at 0.8.

50:32Yeah. And again, it comes back to like, what could a dimaradu, even in eight minutes per game? Could he just get a block per game in eight minutes per game? I think he could. It does feel a little risky because, you know, I heart 0.8 per game, that's fine. But also like SGA having there, it does give you some, like, floor with this. Like you really do need someone who can average one per game to get to third and box per game. However, I'm going to go with Mara. Okay. I think they're going to, I feel like we do this every year, where there's like the rookie and we're like, you know, we'll probably get a lot of time in the G. You know, we'll see if you can make the team and then you look up at the end of the year and like Brooks Barron Heiser has over 500 minutes played.

51:32Yeah. I think they're going to find minutes for a dimaradu. I think they're going to find minutes for Thomas Sorber. They will. I think all these guys are going to play. And if that's the case, the thing I would be most confident about stat wise for Mara, would be that he will rack up some blocks. The thing that he's so good at too, is he has a lot of those blocks where he doesn't swatted out of the gym. Yeah. It'll be like right around the rim, he'll block it, the guy might get it right back and then he'll block him again. I think he could have a lot of multi block possessions. Wow. Or he could get like two blocks in a single possession. That's great if you're only playing like eight minutes per game. It's all I need. I'm going with a dimaradu. I will go with Shay. Go with Shay. He's had several seasons where he's averaged over a blocker game or at a blocker game. Yeah. And he's, I mean, I just think he's extremely capable.

52:36One of the best best guards in the league at blocking shots. He just has great block instincts. He does. He's very good. Okay, your turn, Andrew. I will take a third and revounce per game. Okay, so last year, I heart number one at 9.4, chat, second and 8.9, J will, 5.5. Big drop off there. Yeah. Dub, 4.6. Now the previous year, two years ago, Dub averaged 5.3. Yeah. Still would fall below J will last year. But some of the factors I'm thinking about here is, does J will play in the center position as often? Is he going to be playing more at the power for position? How does that affect his rebound numbers? Is there, well, there definitely is room for improvement for Dub, but could we see an uptick for Dub? Could that be just part of his new game when he returns?

53:36I don't think you would choose any of the rookie centers here. So I think it is mainly between J will and Dub. Yeah, I'll take J will. Okay, J will. I think J will is going to play a lot this year. I think that he is undoubtedly a top eight rotation player for basically every team in the NBA. I think he's certainly that for this team. He's shown just so much improvement. I think that we forget, if he was on almost any other team in the league, I think we would talk about him more as like a developing player as like one of the young guys, but because the center of had so many like high level young guys on their team, role playing guys like J will that are young, just kind of get like kind of toss to the side when it comes to that conversation. The development that he's made over the last like few years has been pretty remarkable. And he just turned 24 this summer.

54:39He's like still in his like pre prime age. He made a big leap from year three to year four. And I think he can continue that, you know, he had a lot of injuries last year at the center position. So he played a lot a lot more than he did the previous year. He played almost 20 minutes per game. I don't see any reason why he couldn't do that. I don't see any reason why he isn't going to just get better period. I think he is probably one of the best third biggs. I mean, he's in the top five of best third biggs in the NBA, in my opinion. So I think he's going to play a lot. And he will be third and rebounds per game. I mentioned earlier about how little this the core four starting lineup group has played together. Uh-huh. That really, that changes so much because now you look at that. You know, like, oh, man, Dubs going to be starting at the three all the time. Like that, that starting lineup is suddenly huge.

55:40Yeah. In a way that last year we were still talking about. There were moments during the season where like, oh, this team looks so small in this moment. Yeah. After starting lineup, whoever you put in the fifth spot has a massive starting lineup. Yeah. And they played 300 regular season. They just haven't just haven't played together. That might be the most exciting thing that I had just like, uh, playing from my memory. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I do think that almost nobody is talking about. I'm going to like previewing the season, talking about this, this Thunder team. Like people like, well, they lost a few guys and so, man, if they just have a healthy season, which might be a lot to ask, but if they just have a healthy season, they will easily, easily easily be the best even the NBA again. Or just if, if the injuries happen, different areas of the roster, because it felt like the starting lineup just got hit so hard the last two years.

56:42It did. Between like Chats injury, then I hearts injury, then J.Dubs injury, you know, if the injuries are more like bench guys versus starters, it, it, that would change a lot as well. Yeah. It was interesting looking at one of the things I was looking at real quick. Maybe we can end it here, Andrew, because I know you have to leave very soon. Yes. And we could finish these off. Maybe I'll come up with a few more. Yeah, come on. Yeah. Just four more. Yeah, we'll do some more. We'll do some more next week. Yeah. Uh, but I was looking at the difference in Chats output based on when he, uh, I was when he's a power forward versus a center. And one thing I think is really interesting is how much better of an offensive rebounder he is when he playing the four versus the five. So two years ago, and he's basically been split close to 50, 50. And so two years ago, he played 43% of his minutes at power forward, 57% at center. Last year, it was 52 at the four, 48 at center.

57:42Two years ago, his offensive rebounding, going from center to power forward, offensive rebounding percentage, 23.6. It jumps to 32%. He goes from the 20th percentile for a center to the 80th percentile for a power forward. Last year, he jumped from 23.5% to 29%. Uh, and this makes sense to me because he, you know, when he's, when he's the center, he's usually the main person guarding who's, whoever is trying to score the ball around the rim. Yeah. And at power forward position, he takes more on that, you know, help defense roaming a little bit more and he can get some of those offensive rebounds. But I'm just like, again, coming back to this idea of the starting lineup, rebounding has been such a problem for this team going back years. But it has been good with the double big lineup. And now you add in Jada, who I know he's not like a great defender, but him, or a great rebounder.

58:43But when he's rebounding from the three versus him rebounding from the four and then Chet rebounding from the four instead of the five and then you still have I heart. Again, I'm just, I'm just of bringing it back to the starting lineup. I think regardless of who starts in that fifth spot, this starting lineup has a chance to be dominant and not have a lot of weaknesses outside of three point shooting, which I, I do still have concerns about. Yeah. Yeah, I think defensively though, they'll be so dominant that they'll figure it out, you know, they're going to be dominant. That's why like we haven't talked about McCain until you and McKellay brought it up. But like, I don't think it's that crazy because I do think there's enough defensive coverage in that starting group. If you think Dub can handle some of those guard assignments, yeah. Like if you're, if you're playing a team, we're just like the main guy you're worried about is, you know, whoever, whoever the guard is. Like like a, a Cleveland, although you'd still probably want to stick them on.

59:46Well no, you would have them guard Donovan Mitchell, I guess. Yeah. See, actually, as I say that, it's going to be case in case in case in is going to start yeah, there's too many good guards. Yeah. They're just are. Okay, but when you play the Kings and you're only worried about derriZ, I'll though, I feel like case in would be like the perfect defender for a guy like derriZ. Yeah. So you're probably just starting case in and Zach Levine may or may not still be there. So sure. There's that. That's that coming. All this is sad. I'm just as I was going through some of this, I'm more excited for the season. Yeah. Because again, as as much as we feel like we know this team, kind of realizing that we still don't know anything about this core for starting lineup group. We don't know anything 300 minutes. And when the court, the rocket's quadrupled that when we saw the core for play together,

1:00:48you know, if they did, they won the NBA championship. We saw them play the most minutes together. That's right. They won the title. So wasn't always pretty, but they did it. It was not always pretty. And it will look prettier when someone other than Dort is in that fifth spot. A little offensive to Dort. Dort's great. We love Dort. But offensively, some of the issues they experience in that, and this is, it comes back to case and case and it's got a shoot. Well, case is going to get those open threes. AJ two, AJ two, AJ is a guy that they have trusted in spots to be a primary defender. And he's done pretty well. Yeah. I think he's underrated as a defender. So. AJ shot 36% on his wide open threes. So yeah, those, those two guys in particular, because I have no concerns about McCain, he's going to hit his open threes wide open threes. But those two guys, because that's, that's 4.53's per game that they were taking that were wide open last year and shooting 36% and 32.7%.

1:01:51Yeah. One of those guys has to become a knockdown shooter in that specific scenario. They need to be better. There's no question they both need to be better. No question about that. Okay, hope everybody's having an awesome Wednesday, September 9th, everybody. We appreciate you guys tuning in. Please leave us a five star of you in Apple podcast. That would be super nice. If you just want to do something nice today for the down to dunk crew, you could do that today. So, hope you guys are doing great. We'll talk to you guys again on Friday. Yeah.