Is Prime Minister Carney politically invincible?

0:00Good evening everyone. Thank you so much for for joining us tonight. We're so we're so we're so grateful they have you here. For those who I haven't met, my name is Sean Speer. I'm co-founder and editor at large at the hub and amongst the things that I get to do as part of my involvement in the hub is I host a weekly podcast with Amanda and David. Which has been a lot of fun and the opportunity to come together here in Ottawa is something I'm I'm enormously grateful for and not just because I'm going to get a better sleep tonight. Then at home with my little kids. Just before we we we get started. For those of you who may not be familiar with the hub. We have been at it now for over five years publishing news commentary and analysis on Canadian policy and politics.

1:06And we have just been overwhelmed by the support from our subscribers from our advertisers and our sponsors. The level of engagement from the hub community is something we far exceeds our expectations. The financial support of the engagement on our website. The emails that we receive really is one of the parts of this project and journey for which I'm most grateful. And as you probably know, we have relied on support from advertisers and sponsors to help sustain and grow the work that we do. And I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge some of those tonight. Well simple, tell us the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association, University of Toronto, Rio Tinto, T.C. Energy, Shopify, RBC, on and on and on.

2:11The level of support that we've had is really enabled us to kind of take the hub to the next level hiring a bureau chief and Calgary Fleashen who's doing really extraordinary work and launching new and different podcast shows, including hub politics. So with that guys, what we thought we would do is kind of do what we do each week, which is me arriving ill prepared. And then relying on David and Amanda to carry us for a half hour or so. I'm going to put some questions to them about the return to parliament, the forthcoming fall session, and some of the other big political issues playing out across the country, including a trivia question, what is the name of the BC conservative leader? If you can remember his last name, you get a double on me. But we'll also have plenty of opportunity for audience members to put questions to Amanda and David and be able to draw on their insights and wisdom as I do every week.

3:32For those of you who don't know Amanda and David, you ought to. Amanda is someone I've known for almost 20 years. Among other things, she's the co-founder and principal at Oyster Group. And someone who has served the highest levels of politics and government in virtually every order of government, including here in Ottawa. David, as you know, no, no, is the founder and now chair of Abakus data. And in my judgment, the best and most interesting pollster in the country. And so what we'll do for the next half hour or so before opening things up to questions is just have a conversation as we normally do about how to try to make sense of what's going on and what is to go on between now and when MPs break for the holidays.

4:40And David, why don't as we often do have you situate the conversation with your data. You know, for those who listen to our show regularly, one heuristic that we've come to rely on, substantiated by David's first rate polling is that there is a positive relationship if you're Prime Minister Karni between the salience of Donald Trump. And the standing of Mr. Carly's government, where, as Parliament returns this week, do we find ourselves in that curve? Well, first thanks, Sean, and welcome everybody. It's so such a great, it's kind of weird to see humans here listening to us because we never really know who's listening when we put this out there. And it's such a thrill to know that people value what we're doing. I was at an event today with a bunch of public sector workers and I basically said, I think we're at the moment that we probably have the most popular government and the most popular Prime Minister than we've had maybe since polling really started.

5:51And I think that's the context to understand pretty much everything that's going on right now. And it's in large part because when you ask Canadians, for example, what's most likely keeping you up at night? If you've ever seen any of my word clouds, Trump has been the anchor and by far the largest word that anyone uses in answering that question. And if you are somebody and it's not everybody, it's about half the country who says Donald Trump is one of the top three issues facing the country, but it hasn't been that high since basically the first few weeks of the federal election. And ear right, Sean, every time that number rises, so too does the approval rating for the government, Mark Carly's personal numbers, and the number that gets the most attention, which I think has the least value, is how people say they would vote for an election word today. And we just finished the survey this morning. We've got the Liberals ahead by- We're getting a sneak peek here. sneak peek will be out on Sunday Liberals ahead by 12. So it's down to from the 14 point high that we had two weeks ago, but really interesting.

6:55And this is probably the most important dynamic in the public opinion that's not talked about enough. Close to half of Canadians today now think the country's heading the right direction. That is probably, I don't have a lot of history data there, but I would say it's a decade high. And at the same time, you take that 50% and you ask them, do you think the world is headed in the right direction? And they overwhelmingly say no. And so that gap, that gap in sort of this half the country feeling optimistic, while at the same time feeling very pessimistic and anxious about the world, I think is a uniquely Canadian mindset. That doesn't exist in the UK or in Australia or the United States. Any country, right? You look at any polling in any of those countries. They think their countries crap headed to the crapper and the world is. And so whether that's the result of Donald Trump, whether that's the result of, I don't know, $100 million of advertising that's convinced us that, you know, everything's great and we've got everything the world wants.

7:57I think that is the context by which this parliament comes back this week and why, you know, Mark Ernie can do things that no Prime Minister has been able to do with so little resistance to it from the public. Amanda, David said so to theory, call it Canadian exceptionalism. Yeah, how do you make sense of that? It seems to me that there ought to be a tension between those directional numbers and yet somehow they're reconciled in the minds of something north of one and two Canadians. How should we think about that? First of all, hello. Good to see you guys. It's really cool to have some chats before Anna. I look forward to talking to you a little bit after as well. I keep waiting for gravity to take effect on this Prime Minister, like truly, like what goes up must come down. It's going to happen eventually, right? Surely he can't announce with no no tilling of the political soil in advance that he's going to sell off portions of our airports, which is literally a political third rail in this country, like caucus didn't like it, all their internal polling said no, and yet he just dumped it in the middle of his investment summit, which kind of captured the news and guess what, there's been no real impact yet.

9:09I mean, that's a lengthy story to go. Surely he can't deny it in the media. I'm a we're not no absolutely not we're not going to be an associate member of the you. I don't know what you're talking about. The 24 hours later, it is confirmed that in fact, yes, that is something that's being offered, whether that's a real thing, but DMOC was asked if he would like to do that, right? DMOC. It is it's honestly remarkable as a political practitioner, somebody looks at this like sports to watch someone of a political athlete of that caliber capture a moment and when he didn't look like one, remember like he would do these press conferences where he would go and awkwardly shake like trace people's hands, like he'd never seen them before, and I was like, this is not going to work. And yet here he sits, flying around the world, sort of the leader of the other part of the free world and us to a certain extent, I think Canadians like it. I think the thing that we thought would be bad, which is that he's not here domestically doing domestic things, means he's he's out of the weeds on that and he's up at the EU, he's up in New York.

10:12You know, as we talk here, stories are about to land, he just did a big sit down with the New York Times, like nine of them, like senior editors, etc. And we love to see that, I think, as a country. I think it puffs our chests up a little bit in this moment. And so as long as he's able, as David says, to kind of capitalize on that, I think we're going to continue to see him sort of sit above the frame. And another common theme to our conversations, which now have run for over a year, is the extraordinary composition of Mark Carney's coalition. It's a coalition that runs on one end with, call them, Basery Capitalists to, on the other end, social justice activists who've historically voted new Democrats. And we've been waiting to see if and when there might be fracture between these different elements of his coalition. And as Amanda says, each and every time you think, this is the issue that's going to catalyze it to use a favorite word of the Prime Minister's, it doesn't happen.

11:19People are still trying to make sense of Bill C-39, this omnibus bill that seems to me in a way is a repudiation of the trade-over-governments kind of agenda with respect to major projects. But in some ways, an affirmation of what the Harper government did back in 2012, as well as attached to that, some pretty significant changes to the Canadian labor code, is this the issue that finally destabilizes this coalition that the Prime Minister has assembled? No, I don't think it will. And let me use a little historical, not that deep historical comparison, right? Like if we fast-forwarded, now rewinded ourselves back to June of 2024, when the Liberals won, sorry, the Conservatives won, Toronto, St. Paul, that bi-election in Toronto, that no Conservatives should ever win, frankly.

12:23And you asked the question, how can Pierre Paulie have hold together a coalition that included Gen Z, Boomer Man, true Conservatives, and every other kind of piece? It was because the thing they all agreed on was that they did not like Justin Trudeau, and they wanted him gone. And the moment he left, that glue kind of softened, and the story goes after that. I think the same is true for what holds that coalition together for Carney. It is Donald Trump. It is 100% that. And so will it chip away? You saw evidence of it over the last two years, or so, that every time the government kind of did something that raised a few flags, you saw a softening, a new Democrats would say, oh, I don't like that. And then they'd come back, the moment Trump got back into the picture. And so while I agree with Amanda, that things like privatizing the airports, or insisting that a minister can put a project wherever it wants at any time, who cares what animals die or get extinct as a result, maybe uncomfortable to people, I'm not sure that there's going to be enough of a backlash or of a second guessing, as long as Donald Trump is the organizing principle.

13:37And people's head that causes that coalition to fundamentally break apart. One more question about the government, and then we'll turn to its chief opponents, the new Democrats, and the conservatives before maybe to bring a quick tour across Canada's provinces. So the government Amanda resumed the fall session with a bang with this major set of legislative amendments. You know, publicity in our conversation thus far is the prime minister has got a ton of political capital. The spend is often characterized. What comes next? What are you looking for heading into what is now a fall budget, as people know, we've moved the federal budget, typically from the late winter early spring to the fall. What are you anticipating is going to be some of the signature items that the prime minister will advance and start to theory spend down some of this political capital.

14:38I think more to come, you're going to see more on of this bills. You're going to minor standing, as there's another bill dropping tomorrow, I think on defense. So like the reaction of Monday was, okay, like, okay, like people kind of made noises. Obby Lewis said, you don't have a mandate for this, which this prime minister probably like, you're right, I should go to get a mandate. I should go get another mandate, a bigger mandate, and you will be nowhere. Please do not hand him those things, right? So I think more of it, because I think he does not get, he does not get the pushback. People are like, okay, font, right? Even the labor unions just recognize I think they see the political capital. Yeah, so I think we should continue to see that. I don't, you know, there should be a cabinet shuffle at some point soon. There's a whole bunch of like new people, new fresh blood. But my sense is that's also not in the offing mostly because he runs the government himself. And he occasionally brings in sort ministers as he sees fit. And otherwise, you know, I just deals with the gaggle that he has.

15:39It's going to create more political problems than he needs. I do think there's one thing I would watch, which is a little nerdy, but I feel like this is a good crowd for nerdy things. Yeah. Is there, you know, what we've talked about a few times on the podcast is that this premise or talks to really be game about we're going to build this, we're going to do this, this is going to happen. And yet we have yet to see a lot of fruits of all that noise, right? And it's like at some point that should catch up with him. What he seems to be doing and nobody's really paying attention too much to is like they're putting up a lot of government agencies, like they keep popping up and appearing that then report into ministries or don't report into ministry. And my assumption having been in government as we all have is that he's finding the bureaucracy is either finding him, which we know they're doing or they're too slow. So instead, I'm going to create a new agency. I'm going to put my buddy in charge of it, who I know from Goldman Sachs or this place or that place or whatever, very prominent people. But government grows and gets in each other's way. So I'm not actually not sure the creation of new agencies is going to speed any of that up.

16:43So I actually do think that might bite him in the long run only when as David has pointed out, the Trump specter goes away. So I do think there's like seeds of this. All these promises are not going to bear fruit, but as long as the menace, like the US president is still menacing all of us, I think Canadians broadly like the Mormon fuses, we get internationally. I like the feeling that we're standing up to him. And therefore are willing to forgive all kinds of sins that any other political leader on the face of the earth. Yeah, yeah, yeah, well said. Please, please want to add to that. I think you raised the labor question. I know there's one or two folks from the labor movement here. And I actually think that is the vulnerability of this government and the prime minister himself is not labor issues per se. But his Achilles heel is when people start to believe he's using Trump as an excuse to do things that they would find uncomfortable. And I do think as we saw with the way the government was kind of the backlash that was created when they forced air-canada flight attendants back to work.

17:48And then they didn't do it with the West at once because they learned I think their lesson that what happens when you kind of attack workers who are feeling very precarious. And so they're like showdown will actually be what happens in BC if the Longshoreman go on strike and they close the Vancouver port at the same time that this bill if it passes or not is in the public mindset because I think, you know, we'll find out we're going to talk about I'm sure British Columbia in a moment what happens when you use the Trump card to your own political advantage when people don't actually think it's in the best interest of the country or themselves. And I think as much as Mark Carney is kind of walking on water right now there is limits I think to what the public will accept and doesn't mean they're going to turn overnight and say we don't like you anymore. We don't think you should be prime minister. But I also think as I've been told he is despite all of his instincts quite attuned to public opinion. And so I wouldn't put it past him to actually be listening and feeling out the public and not in the way the Doug Ford kind of does of 180 the moment the same day he announces something and realizes nobody likes it and flips policy you might see.

19:02I don't know if it's like full steam ahead as much as it might be subtle shifts and changes to make sure that he doesn't create a significant backlash. So again, I sound like I'm just as like Mark Carney cheerleader who's like he can do anything because the public's allowing him to. I do think there's like guardrails of that that he's got to be careful not to cross because that's when the public then starts to question his motives. Did you just tell us something suddenly you know the prime minister is attentive to public opinion because he's calling you late at night or is he. Because he's a subscriber to my son. I don't know. He should be if he's not. Yeah, everyone should be. I said that was going to be the final question about the prime minister and his government. But I promise we'll get to the opposition and some of these other issues. We talk about politics on the show. We'd be to miss if we just didn't talk about the prime minister's general performance. You know, one can agree or disagree with this agenda and people who read and listen to the hub know we've been critical about a lot of things.

20:06One thing that struck me last week is the prime minister's vitality. Like this guy did something big on Monday. He did the investment summit. They did a caucus meeting. He went to Europe. He met with the macro on the weekend. In a place I'd never heard of before by the way until that happened. I was like, where? How do I go to France off Newfoundland? He met the Norwegian prime minister. On the weekend. Yeah, this there is one of the again, whatever one thinks of them. Part of the kind of Trump aura is just this like vigorousness that the president has. And obviously prime minister Karni has a lot of differences with the president. But he has for some of his 60s, I feel exhausted both the time and I'm only 44. He is kind of exhibiting Amanda just like a basic capacity to do the job in a way that having seen Stephen Harper do the job for almost a decade

21:17is just pretty impressive. Yeah, I honestly saw this week and I thought thoughts and prayers were his staff. Yes. They must be just gassed. Yes. And I've got some friends in there and they are exhausted because he's... And I will say I've been lucky enough I've only... Because when you're a political staffer you hear about other ministers who don't read their books or go home or... I've only ever worked for bosses that are usually there earlier than I. I used to try to show up beforehand but for Tori for example would show up at 6.35 and turn the lights on. It was like I can't. Harper worked incredibly hard whenever for Baird. He was just in sleep. Yeah, he just worked, worked, worked, worked, worked. And I think that's to be successful. To be successful in those roles you have to operate like that. But I think certainly he seems... My tent also from talking to folks who have interviewed him and been around him is that... He truly feels like a sense of purpose.

22:17He's been called to do this. And that can be dangerous. When politicians get that divine right to govern, only I can do this. Only I can save you from yourselves. And then they stay way too long. Like Trudeau did that. And you saw even kind of shades of that at the talent of even the Harper administration. But yeah, when I was in the room on the Sunday of the Investment Summit when he spoke... And I've the second time I've been in a room with him since he's been the PM in a smaller room. And yeah, he vibrates with intensity. And he is also not a big person. He's small, short. But it's gravity. And I think people like to see that. I am exhausted trying to keep up with his calendar. But I think it's a smart political play. Yeah. Now, again, for those who listen to podcasts, they know that we spend a lot of time talking about... We spend a lot of time talking about what, if anything, Pierre Polly of the Conservatives can do to try to slow down this runaway train.

23:17Rather than asking that question here, though... Thank you. We don't know. The Polly of staffers are like, OK, what do you got? Isn't part of the solution the NDP seizing on some of these potential vulnerabilities with parts of the progressive wing of the Karni coalition? Why do you think that Abiluists and the Democrats haven't been able to seize on labor amendments or privatizing airports or deregulating environmental rules and on and on and on issues that in the past, one would have thought galvanized at the NDP and progress was more generally. Yeah, well, why they can't? I mean, they're not an official party in the House of Commons. Close to 50% of Canadians have no idea who Abiluist is.

24:17And so they're trying to do something that is hard to do when you have some resources and you have a leader in the House of Commons. That's recognizable and almost impossible to do, I think, in the state that they're in. And again, it's... there's a lack... It's not to say that those issues aren't natural. You're right. They're natural issues for the new Democrats to take. And they've tried, right? They've made this new expensing proposal, which again, whatever one thinks of it, represents about $35 to $40 billion in foregone revenue for big corporations. Yeah. And no matter what they try, they're not gaining traction on it. It's not hitting. And I think it's... I honestly don't... again, I come back to this idea that like for the same... We'll talk about Polly of the same reason that Mr. Polly of Struggles, I think, to set the agenda in this environment so too, to the new Democrats. And they don't... I think the problem they have is they don't have a compelling narrative to counter the sovereignty elbows up pro-Canada one.

25:24That is so dominant, I think, in the public mindset now. And so when Avi Lewis comes out and says we should not be privatizing the airports, that's just giving profit to corporations. And it's going to weaken labor rules of these airports. Or he's probably going to... he should be swinging for the fences on C39 on a whole bunch of issues. And yet, like, people might hear him, but they don't know who he is, and they don't know why they should listen to him yet. And so he's come into this job at a difficult moment, and then he hasn't had a chance to make himself familiar with people. I think that's required before people are going to stop listening to the person they trust the most, who is challenging that. And so as long as you have that political... back to Karni, as long as you have that political capital, you know, it's the opposite of what Trudeau faced in his final years, where no matter what he said, nobody would listen to him. Or believe him, or give him credit for it, that's the opposite now. Amanda, besides Polly of Warren, like an Avi Lewis mask, what can the conservatives...

26:30In all seriousness... That's a staff to help them. Yeah, in all seriousness, because we have such an astute audience, people here know that the new Democrats fell to less than seven points in the April 2025 election, had they pulled somewhere near their historic norm, we might be talking about a completely different government, one led by Pierre Polly of. The conservatives have almost like two tasks. One is to try to grow and sustain their support, and then the second is to pray that the new Democrats catch fire, and three party votes splits, particularly in the suburbs around our major cities, enables them to win a plurality if not a majority of seats. And yet, Amanda, as David says, the new Democrats, notwithstanding some openings that the government has given them, seem kind of MIA. Yeah, I think it's twofold. What I think the same affliction as David touched on, the NDP space, the conservative space, which is there just isn't a lot of space for them, right?

27:33In the cycle right now, and embedding people's minds. If let's say the average person spends two, three minutes consuming politics a day, which maybe we're lucky if they do. They're probably consuming either the prime minister's on one of his like three different trips to like wherever, like ungodly things. He's the UN, like we just talked about that, or they're consuming the Trump stuff. Yes. Or they're in the midst of like in Toronto, there's a pretty big municipal election happening there right now. B.C.'s we're going to talk about is plummeted into God knows what. So there's just not a lot of space for the opposition to step into that, and that affliction is both of them, and that is a challenge. I think for the NDP in particular, they pick the wrong leader. Like they pick the wrong guy. He doesn't want to run for a seat. I actually don't believe all roads lead through the House of Commons, and maybe that's because I'm in Toronto. But I think the parliamentary roads and the parliamentary gallery look to you for that and look to you for seriousness, and it can be a real challenge. But like if Albe lu is, if the NDP want to get off their their hind legs and actually campaign on the airport, and go to the biggest airports in the country and leaflet, like stand there and pass out flyers about what this is going to do.

28:36Like here's your new ticket. It's going to cost you $100 more. Like there's like, oh, there's, there's just like eye level stuff that they can do that doesn't need to be. And like all I ever see of him is he's in his office with like a camera shot going up his nose. Like it's just not, it's just, it's not, like it's not it. It is not it. He's in like some random bedroom or room because he's always on the road or he's in BC and he's not in front of. Yeah, I think going to the be a leader. Like you're standing up. This guy's being like the guy you're trying to replace or say you're going to be better for the job at is being fetted by the entire like industrialized world. Like truly, like that's what you're standing up against. So stand up with some like stand in a suit with some like effing flags behind you or be a real person and be next to these workers you allegedly represent. But they, you know, they got a fancy guy from downtown Vancouver or downtown Toronto and I actually don't think that's the path for the NDP. Like I don't. One, we, I'd be remiss if I didn't ask if I had a poly of the conservatives, but I really do want to get to Quebec Alberta, British Columbia.

29:37I didn't study for that part of the test here. Before we wrap up, well, we'll give you a couple of minutes here. I got my phone. People here know that the online chatter about Pierre Poly is viability as leader has ramped up in recent weeks. David, you have something of a contrarian argument. Why don't you share that with our audience? Well, if you watched or listened to our podcast, you've heard me say it probably every week for six months, but I'm not convinced that you replaced Pierre Poly with anybody and anything changes. Back to what I said, the very first thing I said, we are, the conservatives are up against the most popular prime minister, maybe in history. And it has something to do with the opposition leader, but almost nothing. I'm a nerd. I run regression. David Murray is here. He's a poster too. He run regressions. And we can identify what are the drivers that produce someone to say I'm going to vote liberal, or I like Mark Kernie, or I prove of the government.

30:42And almost none of it has to do with how they feel about Pierre Poly of an entirely how they feel about Mark Kernie. So I am thinking, let's all imagine a world in which we don't consume politics, like Amanda said, like a sport, where we judge the score by the polls, which frankly I don't think is healthy for any staffer to do, because being 46, 33 tells you nothing about where it might be two or three years from now. Everybody knows that. Let's imagine a scenario where Pierre Poly of literally disappears for a year, not a single press conference, not a single conversation, just goes away. I don't know if he does any worse, not because of who he is, and this is not a judgment of him. Then if he continues to do what he's doing, or if you replace him with anybody, and the reason I say that is because it almost has, like we're going to talk about British Columbia in a moment. There is a high likelihood, 50, 50 chance, I think, that a person that no one has ever heard of before today could become the premier of British Columbia, simply because most British Columbia's want to change in government, but they didn't want the chaos that they saw.

31:55But it comes along a relatively normal guy in an environment where they're looking for change, and they choose it. So I'm not saying Pierre Poly have, and the Conservatives just shut up and disappear. But I do think that at a time like this, I come back to this, I've used this analogy a few times, a few others have done it. And I still believe that I don't think it's possible for Pierre Poly to do it, but I think he'd be more successful if he thought of himself more like an atli-like figure at a time when Canadians feel like they're at war. Someone who just simply says, I'm going to do what I can to help the Prime Minister. I'm not going to be the opposition leader overwhelmingly. I'm going to pose when I can, I'm going to hold them to account. I just don't think a part of the base will ever let him do that, and so he stuck. He stuck in the worst position you can be in in which you are trying to bridge two vastly different worlds. And neither side will be satisfied with whatever answer they give. Amanda Warren that she was going to be nerdy earlier, and then David dropped a Clement atli deep cut.

33:03The hub politics drinking game. Thinking about need a drink. Everyone here knows that, and Amanda is totally transparent about this as she provides dispassionate expert analysis. She is a big see-conserver that's part of her world view. Yeah, it seems to me you are less forgiving of some of the choices that Paulia have in his team have made over the past say 18 months than David is. Is that right? If so, why? I mean, and I say this with like, I've been in those jobs, and it's really hard to watch people armchair quarterback you as I armchair quarterback people all the time. It's called hub politics, that's the whole point of thought. I know, I know. How did you get a drink faster than me? So I say that with like, I don't know, and even when I do my work with my clients, it's like, oh, that was a terrible story. But you don't know the 17 grenades I sat on before that thing became public. Like, this could have been way worse. It's not about, there's always going to be a dumpster fire.

34:06It's whether you're inside the dumpster or standing outside looking at the dumpster. And there is, I think, an element, David's point. It's just like we are at a moment in time in our politics that is unique and rare and difficult and challenging. And the gravity or the space is what it is for poly-eaved operies within. I do think though, there is, this is my butt. This is my respectful butt. Is that I do think you're at the analysis, although I spent way less time researching this historical figure than you sir, so I appreciate that. Is a little apt in that there's an instinct there, and I think it's also just baked into like conservatives DNA. Is like, sometimes we just get like kind of pissed and a little like nasty. Like we just can't help it like twist the knife, you know. And the lowest common denominator of that is just this like, it came out actually the associate you member thing, which is like a broadly BS. Like truly. It's just like a middle finger to Trump.

35:06It's not going to like my kids might get bill study there faster. I mean, might get like a critical mental or spank, but like the CTA hasn't been ratified. Like everybody should come down. But we jump to, we will never be the 28th you, you like, no, like can you compare that to the 51st state? I think it's just not acknowledging where Canadians heads are at. I think that is like, that's just that tonal misplay. It's fractional. It's on the edges, but that's the problem. Right? And that's why I think there's a lack of connection with Canadians on this issue when they can't seem to find their feet. And it's not. And they've been also like slower to turn to criticize Trump, which every other politician in this country to the point where I find it obnoxious does meeting interviews on CNN and whatever. And when Polly of goes there and does that. And he says, I'm not going to criticize my leader on foreign soil. He looks great. Like he looks good. He did good job. And then he comes back and it's right back to throwing, you know, pochots in a way that's unnecessary. Like you brought up the, the strike, the airline workers strike. That I thought the conservaton amazing job at like that was great. Right? They picked an issue. They fought a battle was on behalf of workers. So what I think we need to do is we just pick our spots. We pick some issues.

36:12I think there's some vulnerability in this omnipotent. There has to be like go and do your and pick a spot. Right and go after him. But just these automatic instinct to oppose to jump to 28th state. Because that satisfies a part of the base to me is I think just it's unnecessary. It doesn't advance your cost. Yeah, really just a few more questions from me and then we'll open it up to audience members. What's interesting is for all of the attention on the national political scene, we're about to enter a period of real significance. It seems to me with a referendum in Alberta. Consequential election in Quebec, this extraordinary thing that's played out in British Columbia, municipal elections in Ontario, including of course, mayor of the city of Toronto. So take your pick David, which of those races do you think audience members ought to be paying attention to you because they have the potential to kind of transcend their locality and actually impact the kind of broader political environment.

37:21Well, I think it's the one I have the less the least understanding of because I don't speak French very well, but I think it's the Quebec election. And the reason I say that is one, the outcome still looks unclear. I think the PQ will. Based on the polling, there hasn't been a lot of movement. It looks like the C.A.Q's kind of momentum is kind of softened and they've fallen a little bit back as the Trump issue as worn off. She. I think the premier was effective after the negotiations broke down at sort of seizing that and I remember her going on TV and saying like I'm not running against these other people. I'm running against one man, Donald Trump, right? So she tried to pull that in and I think it worked for a while and now it's become about other things. And so it's likely a minority government, it's likely a PQ one. But I say it's consequential because I think we have seen the effect that that Quebec politics and the issues in Quebec have played in our negotiations of the United States in a lot of other issues. And so if you do have even now, I think a minority government's actually in a way worse than a PQ majority because yes, that threat of a referendum with a majority may still be there as it might be with a minority.

38:33But now there could be another Quebec election. And so the politics of it don't go away instantly. And so I'm watching that carefully because I think I think the current government is very sensitive to what goes on in Quebec as most liberal governments are. And I think I think that's going to be particularly consequential. If I can just invoke the moderator progative for a minute because I was talking to a thoughtful Quebec political observer tonight, you know, in some ways the outcome of the Quebec election will be a expression of the tragic missed opportunity of Premier Lecaux and the C.A.Q. This was a new political vehicle that pulled different parts of the Quebec electorate into kind of a mega coalition in some ways, a carning like coalition. And if this analyst is right, that vote may actually splinter in three separate directions, which is to say the CAC may lose seats.

39:34And the PQ, the liberals and the conservatives who presently don't have any seats in the national assembly may all gain seats. How that shakes out will have important implications for Quebec politics, maybe national politics. But in her way, the biggest missed opportunity is for the CAC to establish a kind of durable new political vehicle that cut across some of the old political cleavages in the province of Quebec. I mean, there was a point there where we thought the PQ wouldn't exist anymore. Yes. That after the last provincial election, it was left with a handful of seats and barely any base, right? Like, it was in deep trouble. And that traditional axis of Federalist nationalist separatist, which had defined Quebec politics, it wasn't left, right? It was. It looked like it might be gone, because he had successfully found a way to bring in small-el liberals, soft nationalists who agreed with a more, as Quebec can be, a more free enterprise version of what Quebec politics could look like.

40:39Yeah, but I agree with you. It's kind of now splintered off into multiple dimensions, which makes it incredibly complex and hard, in a first pass, the post system, for that system to actually reflect. Likely what the preference would be of voters, which would be not a separate as government, and yet there's a very good chance you're going to get one. Amanda, do you want to take up any of those different political developments across the country that interests you and that you think could be... Who wants to talk with the mayoral election? No, I'm joking. I want to talk with the mayoral election attorney. The Chris Alexander's campaign? I'm my favorite campaign. They can spell neighborhoods. Godspeed, sir. I think, listen, I love, I think the Quebec one, like Fleshet's particular, is quite an interesting political character to me, and watching that play. But I do think, period, the idea that we are, the provinces have a conservative amount of political heft, right? And all that in the dissolution of the deal, the deal that...

41:42Although I don't know if there's ever a deal that we get across all these people, I don't know. But right now, when you're a leader, your political leader, you know the dance partners you're playing with, right? You strategize around, well, I can talk to Fleshet about this, I can talk to Daniel Smith about X, and the idea that in Quebec and BC, there might be different premieres there. And then on top of it, you may have a very destabilized Daniel Smith, depending on what happens with the referendum. To me, is like incredibly significant from a federal perspective. And I do think the referendum in Alberta, to me, is particularly interesting, because just like the one in Quebec, like there's no real organized, we should leave people or are very motivated. Like they're collecting vote, they're running a proper political campaign, and there is much less evidence that that is taking... I know it's like ramping up a little bit, but these are the dying days of a... Your vote should be ID'd by now. So I'm a little worried we might be surprised by that.

42:43And even if there's not a clear... is not like we should leave, even having a bigger part of that destabilizes her leadership in a way, and she's a major dance partner for the Prime Minister right now. Like a major political water care, they both are for one another, and I think that would have huge implications if you stock that on top of whatever is going on in BC. And I truly... before here, when you asked the trivia question, I was like, what is the name of the guy? Yeah, just on the upper to your observation, Alberta, I think they're so well taken. And people will recall this spring summer, as the plans of the referendum unfolded, some senior, not elected officials in around the UCP, raised the idea that the UCP itself could become a separatist party if the majority of voters endorsed that idea. And it seems to be it speaks to the latent sense in which these issues kind of run through Prinars Smith's caucus, they run through her party,

43:45and she needs to have a definitive outcome in order to move past this and get on to a lot of the big issues she cares about. And I will say to her credit, I've been impressed that she, in a way, has leaned in. There is an alternative universe where her and the government make the case that they are facilitating a vote on behalf of Albertans that the government is neutral as the body responsible for enabling this kind of vote. And instead, she has gone out and spent some political capital making the case for while, Alberta, Audor and Manon Cannon, including the course in recent days, releasing some analysis on the potentially economic cost. So it seems to me that you mentioned earlier, David, that liberal governments historically have been highly attuned to political dynamics that I'll inquire back. Of course, I agree with that. I expect a lot of people attending the gree as well. But it seems to me that the Prime Minister has also, on a number of files, nodded to priorities of the Premier in Alberta as part of this agenda to kind of strengthen her case for the province to remain.

45:04Yeah, I mean, a few things. I was in Alberta for 10 days last week and earlier the week and I was in BAMF and I was in Calgary. You're an honorary Alberta, aren't you? Yeah, I'm Mary Albertan. I spent some time there. And talking to people, we had just released a big survey, so it sort of gave me a chance to do some qualitative work to understand what were they saying. And I got a few things from that. So your point about the Carnegie government is the first time where I spent time with different groups, business leaders, academics, but the business leaders, like the ones who were reluctant, it was amazing. They were like, yeah, Mark Carnegie, not bad. For Albertans to say liberal leader in Ottawa, not bad, was like, and then you got, I was at this dinner in this true blue conservative, partisan. She raised her and I was like, I'm a conservative and I just won't say nice things. But you could feel like she felt very isolated. A conservative in Alberta in Calgary felt isolated because she recognized that people around her had come to the view that Mark Carnegie wasn't as bad as certainly not even were near as bad as the previous Prime Minister.

46:11And actually not bad is not even how they're framing it. So that was the first thing. The second thing is I also sense to very. And sorry, the premier herself has been enthusiastic. Totally, yeah. Right. Our, I mentioned our Burial Bureau chief, Fleeschen, who's just doing tremendous work at the hub. She attended a major event this week, kind of an annual fall remarks by Premier Smith at a chamber of commerce event in Edmonton. And the premier was a fusive about the Prime Minister general and the kind of spirit, if not the substance of Bill C39 in particular. Yeah. And I think, you know, one is we can't underestimate the importance of the Prime Minister actually self identifying as Albertan. Like that is a truth. So he says I was raised in Edmonton. I am an Albertan. So that is different too to have a liberal Prime Minister identifying as Albertan. But I was there. And I also sensed what I perceived as this like deep sadness in a way in Alberta that they were having this conversation.

47:13Like these were people who were not separatists who still had grievances with Ottawa. But nonetheless felt like that instead of us having conversations about how do we take advantage of what they believe is a huge opportunity. We're kind of settling down. And so when you say that, you know, the premier has been very courageous in the last few weeks. It's kind of taking this pro-Canada view. When you ask Albertans, just the beginning of September, how do you think she's going to vote? It's split. So she hasn't, she's one hasn't convinced people who are pro-Canada that she's pro-Canada. And then she's probably lost many of the separatists who now feel that she has not lived up to the past. Not lived up to what they hoped she might be. And so she may find herself despite what you describe as like a willingness to lean in with no constituency at the end. And I think the loss of the bi-election in one of the most safe conservative writings in Calgary is a proof point that like there is vulnerability there and they're heading into an election in the next what eight to nine months.

48:23So final question for me and then we'll have some time for questions from the audience. Raise your hand and we'll figure out a way to get to a microphone. And I invoke moderator, prerogative earlier. It's something I'm inclined to do. I spend a disproportionate amount of my time with like toddlers and a poorly behaved beagle. So when I get to talk to smart people, I I seize on it. I have, as David and Amanda know, thought and written a bit lately about what I've come to think of as the politics of normalcy that there is a kind of tendency in political circles to kind of get drunk on her own bath water. And come to a mistake our instincts and preferences for how the median voter is thinking that we confuse our most specific supporters for what I've come to think of as normies.

49:29And it seems to me that Carolyn Finley's resignation as BC conservative leader, which has precipitated this extraordinary set of developments in the past 72 hours or so. I was joking only partly facetiously that I'm like partially convinced this new leader is like the Frank Underwood of Canadian politics. He's gone about micromanaging all of this with plausible that I ability from Africa. So he returns as leader of the party. He reconciledates the center BC folks who had left the caucus somehow uses, you know, some mine tactics to persuade the premier to call an election, which on the face of it has kind of dropped like a thud. And within like a day of being leader is 50 50 bet to be the next premier. And some of that is circumstance. Some of it, of course, is the demand for change as David says.

50:30But I wonder David Amanda as we wrap up and turn to the audience. If you just want to reflect on this idea that we've talked about and that I've had the opportunity to write about at the hub of the politics of normalcy. And the extent to which families failures and the new leader early promise is a kind of a sign that actually there is a marketplace, a market to ban for the politics of normalcy. Yeah, I like some from a small town in Amherstburg outside of Windsor. I was talking to a friend here from Windsor area earlier. And I like to go home because I like to ask my parents what they're reading and thinking and seeing because I even find coming to Ottawa. It's like, you all know about this bill and that stuff and that says and reached me. Right. And I consume a lot of media like I fall asleep to podcasts every night.

51:31So I do think that sometimes, you know, we get to Frank underwoody or VP or whatever. And there is this and I do not want to take a crap on influencers. But there's this growth of this sort of, particularly in a conservative movement more so than in the left. And maybe they've been there a little longer. The ecosystem is a little more established. But there's a lot of like taking pot shots at each other and they lead the earth. I thought and all party struggle with base versus whatever. But I do think this is an example of where. Like people want to elect either you want to elect someone you want to have a beer with or you're okay to talk to or there are an a whole but you think they'll do a good job. Right. It's one kind of one or the other. And like Harper was like, I don't really want to have a beer with him, but I think you can do a good job. Carnegie I think kind of fits in that category too. I don't think he'd even have I don't think he'd have a beer with me, but he might. But and you might be charming. It might be very dismissive, but I think people are confident that he can do job go away. And I think when you see leaders get fixated on themselves and whatever, it's really signals their demise.

52:33So I do think it's really important to kick leaders out of bubbles and out of their staffing and then like after we lost a no for. And the Harper government lost a Paul Martin was a minority. Like Harper kind of went dark for a while and he went on like a bus tour like a stack on a bus and they may go across the country and like meet with people in barbecues and backyards and stuff that he hated. I must have been excruciating. Yeah, he I remember as an OOLO staff for twice a year, they would like drag him to the building and he would go office by office and like talk like have to talk to us. Maybe like hello Amanda. Like I've been writing your personal correspondence for a year, but sure. I said no to that wedding invitation that someone saying. And but it what it did was it just gets you out of the like the bubble right and bear would insist on this in the summer. He was the Ontario Regional Minister and we would go to all the Ontario MPs and say okay. Like we're going to be an Eastern Ontario for two days. You get a half a day you get a half and they would just take I went to a coffin factory.

53:38I went to all kinds of weird places, but I think it's just we have to be with real people to speak to them politically and like that's part of what David does with polling right as you actually talk to real. You talked to the normies. Well, and I think and I think just to just to still even what you said there and Sean, I think you're right. Like I think of the most successful political leaders right now in the country. Despite the the headwinds they faced, you know, Doug Ford, Scott Mo, Wab Kunu, Tim Houston, Tony Wakeman and Newfoundland Labrador. These are folks that like you'd want to hang out with and have found a way to just appeal more broadly even like Scott Mo's actually a really interesting case because he would have an element within his party like Danielle Smith that he has not let take control of right that he's been actually way more pro Canada standing on a stage with carney and Harper and John Cretchen announcing a major new investment into Saskatchewan just last week. You know that's proof of that and I think I think to me and his point is absolutely right like voters often look to a leader to do one of two things be really relatable or be sent into do a mission.

54:51And I think Stephen Harper was elected to to go in and clean Ottawa up and Mark carney was sent to you know into this job to deal with Donald Trump. But beyond those examples most people just want somebody they can relate to who doesn't speak down to them who doesn't like so I do think there's there's something there right and the the instinct of the party because of fundraising requirements because you hear them on social media and you get kind of addicted to it is is very was very and it's it's happening more I think in the conservative movement today than in any of the other parties. Liberals don't usually fall in that trap because they don't have that kind of energy and the new democrats can as well but they're much smaller and we don't hear it and it's not as you know and they would say and they have no moral compass. I'll let you say that. I started tonight's conversation guys by saying this podcast which is one of many on the hub podcast channel is proven to be one of the most gratifying parts of of my involvement in this enterprise and you've seen tonight firsthand why Amanda David bring a new kind of set of temperament and insight and wisdom I want to thank you for doing the podcast with me each and every week.

56:08And thank you for for joining us tonight. Thanks everybody.