What's Actually the Plane of the Future | Wendover Productions

0:00This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online makes sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability varies 18 plus. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Listening to this podcast instead of doom-scrolling? Smart move. Another smart move? Getting help from one of State Farm's 19,000 local agents when you choose to bundle home an auto. Bundling. Just another way to save with the personal price plan. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Covered options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings, and eligibility vary by state. Propel Fitness Water. With Gatorade Electrolites, Zero Sugar, and Vitamins, Propel hydrates better than water to help you get the most out of your workout and get back to your best self.

1:04What propels you? Propel with Gatorade Electrolites. This video was made possible by Squarespace. Build your web presence for 10% off by going to squarespace.com slash Wendover. Super Sonic Speed, Modular Cabin Design, All Electric Power, Transparent Cabin Walls, Pilotless Plains, Personal Jets for Everyone. That all sounds great, but what's actually the plane of the future? In the next 15 to 20 years, what will be the next major aircraft release to make an impact on the industry? Well, it's not nearly as exciting as those concepts, at least for passengers. More and more people travel by plane each year and the industry is only growing. In recent years, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner has made a significant impact on the airline industry. This relatively small, super efficient, long-range airplane has allowed for the advent of long-haul budget airlines and for traditional airlines to open up long-haul routes between smaller markets. Now the near future of aviation has a lot to do with one decision Boeing made almost a

2:07decade ago. A decision they've been regretting ever since. In 1983, the first Boeing 757 entered into service with Eastern Airlines. It was billed as a replacement to the successful 727 for popular shorter routes that needed more seats than a 737. At the time, it was incredibly fuel efficient, burning 40% less fuel per seat than its predecessor. It sold well, but not phenomenally. By the turn of the millennium, about a thousand were made and sales were slowing rapidly, so Boeing pulled the plug on the aircraft's production in 2004. But then, in 2007, the aircraft started to be used for something it wasn't intended for, Transatlantic service. When the 757 was originally developed, airlines weren't really allowed to fly twin-engine aircraft over long stretches of ocean, but the regulations changed, so airlines changed how they used the plane. With a range of well over 4,000 miles, the 757 can easily reach most destinations in

3:08Western Europe from the US East Coast. When operating a smaller plane, airlines are almost guaranteed that they can fill the seats, so they're almost guaranteed to make money. So, instead of operating larger planes that might not fill up, airlines started flying this single-Ile twin-engine plane across the Atlantic. The smaller size also allowed airlines to fly to smaller destinations with smaller demand. United, for example, flies these planes on routes like New York to Shannon, Birmingham, Edinburgh, Lisbon, and Stockholm. At the same time, since the plane was originally developed for domestic routes, it can easily be used for shorter domestic flights between Transatlantic flights, which leads to high aircraft utilization, a key to profitability. But these planes are getting old. Some have been in service for well over 30 years, and airlines need to retire them to remain competitive both with passenger comfort and aircraft efficiency. And right now, nobody really knows what's going to replace these aging 757s.

4:09There's a huge gap in the market. The biggest Boeing single-Ile aircraft in production is the 737 Max10, while the smallest twin-Ile aircraft is the 7878 Dreamliner. In an all-economy configuration, the Max10 carries 230 passengers, while the Dreamliner carries 359 passengers. Every mile, the Max10 can fly up to 3,700 miles, while the Dreamliner can fly up to 8,300 miles. At between 230 and 280 passengers and up to 4,000 nautical miles, the 757 perfectly fits between the two sizes. But we need a plane of the future for this middle spot. Neither Boeing or Airbus has officially announced plans for a middle of the market plane, but it's almost certain that the next entirely new plane to hit the market will be in this sweet spot of size. Boeing tried to hurtly make a plane this size with the 737 Max program, but many traditional airlines on it. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome.

5:11You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Listening to this podcast instead of doom-scrolling? Smart move. Another smart move? Getting help from one of State Farm's 19,000 local agents when you choose to bundle home an auto. Bundling. Just another way to save with the personal price plan. These are based on rating plans that vary by state. Covered options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings, and eligibility vary by state. Propel Fitness Water With Gatorade Electrolites, Zero Sugar, and Vitamins, Propel hydrates better than water. To help you get the most out of your workout and get back to your best self.

6:11What propels you? Propel with Gatorade Electrolites. Aren't buying it. Budget airlines love using it to serve between the British Isles and US East Coast, but the largest 737 MAX can only fly up to 3,700 miles, only barely reaching continental Europe from New York. United, Delta, and American Airlines all want a longer range and slightly larger plane for their low demand transatlantic routes. So here's the good news. This plane is coming. There have only been trickles of information, but we've all but confirmed that the Boeing 7977 will be a brand new plane between the size of the 737 and the 787, and here's what it will look like. It will have between 225 and 260 seats and a range of just shy of 6,000 miles, enough to get even to the American West Coast from London. While the increased range of the 737 MAX planes is allowing transatlantic service from smaller cities in the British Isles and American East Coast, this 797 will open transatlantic

7:15service from cities deeper into the continents, along with their placing with the aging 757s. With super-efficient engines and composite design, it will be one of the most efficient planes yet and further drive down the cost of hopping the pond. Meanwhile, Airbus is doing nothing, because they already tried. The Airbus A310 was exactly the size of this potential 797, but they only sold 250 of them. It was likely before its time. The planes just didn't consider serving long haul routes between smaller markets at the time. It's a newer concept. Ironically, the best replacement for the Boeing 757 is actually an Airbus plane, the A321 Neo long range. But this plane is a bit too small to serve as a true replacement. It's more a temporary solution until Boeing releases their solution. As of now, the 797 would most likely enter service in 2025, so it will be a while until we know which manufacturer shows correctly.

8:16But what's next? After completing their entire ranges of aircraft sizes, what will Boeing and Airbus make to remain competitive? Right now, oil prices are low, so there's less pressure to operate greener aircraft, but most analysts predict a doubling of oil prices in the next 20 to 30 years, with ever faster increases after that. The industry will need to adapt to stay alive against the potential future threat of high-speed land-based transportation systems like Hyperloop. For that, electric is the answer. Fuel is airlines number one cost, and cutting that out would make flying competitive in price to taking the bus, but electric aircraft have their limitations. Current batteries are heavy, and electric engines are weak, so electric aircraft are limited in speed and range, but there's a place for that kind of aircraft on regional routes. This currently dominate the 200-400 mile transportation market, think DC to New York, Edinburgh London, or Tokyo to Osaka. There's just no way that the plane can beat the train in terms of price, convenience, and

9:19time. But the electric aircraft has the potential to beat the train on the most important of those three factors. Price. By offering a transportation option at roughly the same cost but significantly faster than the bus, electric aircraft will have the potential to dominate the short-haul market, because on shorter routes, aircraft speed doesn't really matter. On flights so short, aircraft barely get up to their top speeds. Both British Airways and Flyby operate the Edinburgh to London Heathrow route, for example. But British Airways uses A320 and 767 jets, while Flyby uses Bombardier-8 Turbo Props. British Airways flies this route in an average 79 minutes, while Flyby, with their slower Turbo Prop planes flies between Edinburgh and London Heathrow in a faster 73 minutes on average. British Airways' A320 has a top speed of 541 miles per hour, while Flyby's Dash-8 has a top speed of 370 miles per hour, and yet the Turbo Prop flies the route faster.

10:22On such a short route, the low speed of an electric airplane wouldn't matter since aircraft can't get up to speed, and the dramatic cost reduction would make airplanes the absolute dominant transportation method in short-haul markets. Airbus is the current market leader in electric aircraft development, with a goal to release a hybrid commuter aircraft by 2030. But as the reality of a world without oil nears, Boeing will likely start more serious development of an electric aircraft in the coming years. None of this is to say that we will never see some of the more exciting future aircraft concepts, but the entire aviation industry is dictated by economics, not comfort. It's a lot easier for airlines to market lower prices than it is for them to sell higher comfort, so more efficient aircraft will always win. With a completion of a middle of the market airplane, however, the entire range of aircraft sizes will be filled in a way that might allow the aircraft manufacturers to turn their focus to developing more novel aircraft concepts that will change the way we fly in the future.

11:24The good news is that these aircraft developments are all about making flying cheaper, which will let more and more people fly for less. If you have a business, a YouTube channel, a podcast, or really anything else, you need a professional web presence. It's how people find you nowadays, and nobody makes it easier to build your website than Squarespace. They have dozens of beautiful designer templates that make it simple to make a beautiful looking website. You can create an e-store, a blog, a portfolio, or just a simple landing page with your contact info. If anything goes wrong, they have fantastic award-winning customer service available 24-7. No matter how you use Squarespace, you can get 10% off your order by going to squarespace.com slash Wendover. Squarespace is what I use because it just works, and you should too by going to squarespace.com slash Wendover. Aside from that, please be sure to check out my podcast Showmakers, my new channel half is interesting, and subscribe to this channel to get all my future videos right when they

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