Prop Points | September 17, 2026

0:00A cool and crisp Madelo tastes good, but that fought for every rebound Madelo. Or that just clocked out Madelo. That Madelo you earned is just better. That Madelo is the mark of a fighter. Trick responsibly, very important by Crown and Portugal Illinois. During Lowes Pro Savings Days, save more on the products you count on to get the job done right. Get a free two pack of DeWalt 20 Volt Max XR 8 Amp Hour Batteries. When you buy a Selex DeWalt 20 Volt Max Power Tool, plus save up to 35% on select major appliances. The right products, the right deals, ready when you need them. Our best lineup is here at Lowes, Valetue 925, Wall Supplies last, Selection Veris by Location. This is Pro Points on Veecin, the Sports Betty Network. Now here's your host, the guru himself, John Hansen. Good afternoon. Welcome to a Thursday edition of Pro Points.

1:03Right here on Veecin, I'm John Hansen of FantasyPoints.com. The program per usual is produced by Mr. Michael Cohen, a big program for forthcoming week two, kicking off tonight in Buffalo, breaking in a new stadium. We've got the highest total of the week right now at 53 and a half of the bills favored by five and a half. We'll catch you up on your top storylines heading into week two. Then we'll also check in on the critical injuries. First day of the week, sometimes guys are out there not practicing because they're resting. Sometimes they have some injuries. So a lot of times we don't know until Wednesday and the injury report pops up. We'll check in on that and then we'll revisit some of these key injuries on Friday to see what happened on Thursday today. Then in segment number two, as per usual, we'll cover all the data points and stats that we need to know tonight for Lions at Bills.

2:04Our guy, the grinder Tom Braille, is absolutely on fire with his picks. Three and oh here on the show and kick and tail over there at FantasyPoints for the official picks. Then I will pop out my official picks off to a little bit of a slow start, but we're due. We're due for some goodness and some wins and you know, trying to see through everything. We do expect a lot of points. In terms of fantasy, it's kind of a start of if you got them game. But I do feel really good about four plays, two leans. And I do have a Thursday night special that is a plus 400 situation. We did hit that Devon Valle prop last week at plus 400, also the Millique Willis at plus 350. But the rule is for the Thursday night special or the Monday night special, gotta be at least plus 200 or else it's not very special. Make sure you download the prop points podcast wherever you get your pods, Apple Spotify and the like. The top stories here.

3:06Nico Collins, our guy Adam Schaefter reporting on this status for week two is in jeopardy because of a hamstring injury and just came down the line. He's not practicing today. So that is very unfortunate there. They're extremely thin. Luckily for them, they traded for K-Shampoote quite frankly because they are thin at receiver and not going to be very, very thin if they don't have Nico Collins. It looks like we're trending that way. Joe Burrow, back tightness expects to play. Did not practice on Wednesday. Sammy Darnold, not on IR, but is ruled out already for week two. And that'll be Drew Laku acquitted himself very well. He knows the offense, knows well, it's a revised offense, but he knows the personnel. He knows the environment and he does have some talent to work with. Stud tight end, Tray McBride at a priming. I'll believe it when I see it with Tray McBride not playing because this guy is unbelievable. Like that is one of my favorite players in the NFL, even though I fainted him this year,

4:10quite frankly. And Cooper Copt limited at practice. Here's some other injury notes heading into week number two. Jalen McMillan, full practice for the Buccaneers. I think they missed him last week. So I think he's a good waiver wire pickup if there's scraps on the waiver wire. I like him. Always have. Good player inside, outside versatility. He's good. He can kind of do it all. Downfield, run after the catch. Pretty talented guy eight touchdowns his rookie year very impressively. Sean Tucker is back for the box as well. So we'll see if he starts of altering those short goal on opportunities from Bucky Irving, Saints Ravens, John Johnson out of practice. He's got an illness. So most of the time these illnesses clear up. Zay flowers. Probably leaning toward him, not playing in the game. I know our guy Tom Braille has a very interesting prop that I can totally see for that game. He's coming up later in the program.

5:11Ronnie Stanley, the outstanding left tackle out of practice with a toe. Trey Hendrixson too. That was probably a rest situation. Steelers Patriots, Michael Pittman still dealing with some injuries below the waist. Has all summer. It was a hamstring. Now it's a foot. You wonder about favoritism in terms of the injury, but still limited in practice. So we're trending toward playing, but it's not a great start to the week. Joey Porter still in that weird. I guess it's a contract in pass, even though it says he's limited. I don't expect him to play boring a contract deal or some big development here today or tomorrow. Carlton Davis for the Patriots. He's out of practice. He is one of their starting corners. So that would be good news for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers. Travis Hennersen is going to return to this week full participation in practice. Coming off that ankle injury. And I think we saw we lost that Ramondrae prop by like three damn yards last week and he didn't look very good. He almost got it. Now had Drake May not thrown

6:13that interception. We would have hit it, but to be fair, Ramondrae in four quarters didn't get there. He didn't look very good. So I think they need some juice that Travis Hennersen can provide. Bengals Texans. We talked about burrow and Collins adult and shults also out of practice. So we'll see about that. I didn't check in on that one. Packers jets in terms of the specificity, specific specificity of the injury. That's a tough word. Green Bay at New York Jets. Mink of its Patrick for the Jets did not practice. Looks like he's probably not going to play. Neither is Omar Cooper. 80 Mitchell's not bad. I mean, he's clearly the number two receiver opposite Garrett Wilson and Gina Smith looked pretty good last week. Packers do have a couple of guys injured and limited like Lucas Van Ness and Devante Wyatt. Their defense is beatable with it without those guys quite frankly. Eagles Titans, Jalen Carter out of practice with a wrist that would be big if he didn't play. Obviously Cooper Dejean out of practice with a calf and an ab injury that would

7:17also be big for the Titans who need all the help they can get. I mean, I don't know how we can have any confidence whatsoever in that offense up against Philly, although those injuries would certainly help Vikings bears. Oh boy, the Vikings probably not going to see Kyler Murray. Let's be honest here. We also do have some some more online online injuries unfortunately. Not not many, just the one Brian O'Neill of starting white tackles limited. Joanne Jennings people forgot he was in the NFL after week one. He was out of practice. Not that we care that much. Andrew Van Ginkgo limited as well. They're going to need him against that Chicago Bears O line and high powered offense. Speaking of the Bears, both their run backs are a little bit banged up here and limited in practice, which isn't great considering it's only week two. Menungay with a hamstring and swift. I just saw what that was. I think that was also maybe a hamstring, but hopefully it's not

8:17that serious on Deandre Swift. Here it is. Oh, ankle Nate, ankle Nate for Swiftie. Panthers, Falcons, Jalen Coker, massive game in week one, man. I loved Coker as a pick this summer. Unfortunately, I didn't listen to my own advice. I didn't draft him enough, but he's a dealing with an ankle. So we'll see that could be good news for Tetmick Millen for the Falcons. Michael Penix full practice, but it's probably going to be Cooper Rush. I don't know if that's official yet, but to a tongue of a low out of practice, AJ Terrell, that's a big one. Did not participate in practice. So if he's out, that's big for Tetmick Millen. Raiders, chargers, no Brock Bowers. Maybe he practices today, it's a tomorrow. I don't know. I'm a Bower's owner. I think I'd rather just sit him down for another week and come back hopefully in pretty good shape next week. Eston Gentie, a full participant in practice. Lad Maconky with this weird bruise side. Is it a spleen?

9:20What is it? Is it an organ bruise? We're not totally sure just yet, but he's out of practice. So that's not a great start to the week for Lad Maconky, but all is not lost. He still has a chance to practice, obviously, and suit up. By the way, I would trade for Lad Maconky right now. People may be worried about him in week two. He had a, it was like a 46% target share before getting hurt, which is completely absurd. Our guy Ryan Heath over at fantasy points, opined all summer. Then he could be this year's JSN, and it sure looked like that in week number one. Let's move on to the Jags and the Broncos, Jacoby Myers dealing with a thumb limited in practice. Brian Thomas Jr. with the shoulder also limited. So they are a little bit banged up as they take on that probably angry Broncos defense in Denver that really got a little embarrassed on Monday night football. So it could be a tougher go this week for Trevor Lawrence on the other side. RJ Harvey

10:20has a hamstring. A lot of hammies popping up here early in the season. Marvin Mims will see about RJ Harvey. Maybe joining Coleman gets a few more opportunities if he's out or limited. Marvin Mims did not practice. That probably helps Jalen Waddle. I feel Jalen Waddle will bounce back a little bit this week. Seahawks Cardinals. We talked about Sam Darnold. He's not going to play. Nick Eman-Worry was still limited. So maybe he suits up. I thought week one was a pipe dream and it was Buddha Baker at a practice. We'll check in on that. We talked about a Tramik bride dealing with a little bit of a back issue. But again, I'll believe it when I see it in terms of Tramik bride missing a game. Dolphins 49ers. Nick Bosa did not practice. McCaffrey didn't practice but he's going to be fine. Same with George Kiddell. We'll see about Dray-Gill Greenlog though the linebacker. He did not practice. Commanders Cowboys. Damarian Overshone. Probably going to miss the game which is a boost for the commanders from taking away from the Dallas Cowboys front. Cheg Gaconco. He's not going to practice.

11:21There's no viable replacement. Colts Chiefs. We got Alec Pierce. Limited. This is a heel. Looks like he's going to be okay. Shemari Conor out of practice. Mansour Delaine did practice. So we're good there. And we'll see about Josh Simmons. The left tackle. He was out of practice. Stats and data points. Four thirds of night football on the other side. But first, seasons underway. There's still plenty of time and ways to win. The Edge Boost Average Joe contest is broken into five week quarter. So you don't need a hot start to be in the mix first. If you finish first in the weekly standards, Edge standings. Edge Boost will drop a thousand bucks in your account as long as it's funded with at least a hundred bucks. Win your quarter and you'll get airfare for two to Vegas plus the two-night state circa Rosino, casino and resort. The average Joe champion locks in an automatic qualifier spot in the 2017 circa Friday football invitation plus a Vegas trip. And then in studio guest appears on a decent show free to play. You can register anytime. You don't have an Edge Boost account. Sign up at edgebuse.io with the promo code visa. Make sure

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13:31Lego Pokemon with Smart Play. You're the trainer now. You're watching Pro Points with the guru himself, John Hansen on Vsyn, these sports betting network. Welcome back to a Thursday game day edition of Pro Points here on Vsyn. I'm John Hansen of phantasypoint.com and phantasy points data is taken over basically and that's what I have in hand here looking at all the propage. We pop out stats and data points starting at the quarterback position of course, Jared Goff 262. Now I should mention real quick and I failed to mention at the beginning of the show but the lions are down three starters on their offensive line.

14:31So that is worrisome. It's the starting center, Kade Mays, left tag, left guard, Christian Mahogany, and their number one pick, right tackle, Blake Miller. That is certainly worrisome. And it's kind of playing into a lot of my props that I'm going to pick. So stay tuned for all that. Also for the bills, Tide Johnson is still, I guess technically a game time decision. We'll see about that because that could help certainly James Cook's catch totals and his role in the passing attack. But back to Goff down three starters on the offensive line. That's not great. So I'm not going to touch this even though I do think Goff will play well. 262.5 is the number and minus 112. I am in on a golf prop. So stay tuned for that. But pretty decent schematic matchup in the opener with new defensive coordinator Jim Leonard, who by the way was a badass player

15:32for the jets most notably. But he deployed cover three and cover six at a 52.4% clip last week. And Jared Goff averages a very solid 7.59 YPA. Nothing amazing but pretty solid. Hey, C.J. Stroud, who's not good. He pretty much had no problem putting up 274. It's the last two passing in this matchup last week. Josh Allen, 250.5. I'd lean over on this one in a game with a total of what? 54, 53 and a half, whatever it is. Very high, highest total of the week. We do show over at Fantasy Point some advantages for the bills in the intermediate and deep passing game. The Lions ran cover three and cover four 53% of the time last week. And Josh Allen last year, average 8.35 YPA against those coverages Detroit. They do play some man top nine percentage of man last week,

16:39even though it was a little down for them at like 26%. And Allen hasn't actually been that great against man coverage. But Detroit's volleyball in the back end, man. They allow the ninth most passing yards per game and the fifth most passing touchdowns per game. The quarterbacks since the start of 2025. And we all know what Tyler Schuck did last week. 4, 10 passing with three tuddies. Actually only ran for eight yards. I was kicking around that Tyler Schuck prop. Thank God I didn't play that one. Didn't even get it in 69 minutes of football action last week. I'm on raw. Let's take a look at the receiving props next up. I'm on raw all over the place last week, although he had a low yard per catch average, but caught a bunch of balls. Detroit last week or not Detroit. The bills last week gave up nine targets and five slash 98 to the slot. They ran the cover three in the cover six 52% of the time in the opener under Leonard. And

17:40that's a pretty good schematic matchup for I'm on raw at 2.545 yards per route. If you're over two, you're good. So he's halfway to three. So of course, he's good. I guess pretty much everything. DJ more. Oh, by the way, I'm on raw. It's total is 80.5 at minus 114 on draft King seven and a half catches. We're we're going to we're going to do it. I'm on raw lean later on in the program. DJ more 63.5 at minus 110. Very tempting after last week. That's for sure. Not the greatest schematic matchup. He's not great against man, which they ran about 25% of the time last week. And also against the cover three in the cover four that was out there 53% of the time last week. He's only at 1.61 yards per route. But you know, again, the line corners. I'll see a lot of rock. You send. I mean, that that's not scary at all. So we could say a big play to DJ more. As

18:43Chris Alave did last week when he dropped 10 grabs for a buck 82, granted an OT, but he still crushed that absolutely crushed him. Jamo Williams off to a slow start just for for 45 on nine targets last week. It was a solid 23% target share and a 90% route share. He did also lose over 40 yards to drops per fantasy points data, which does scare me a little bit. It's a so, so schematic matchup against the cover three in the cover six, which again, they ran at 52% of the time. 1.86 yards per route run. It's not bad. It's just not great. Buffalo also gave up the second fewest receiving yards per game. The six fewest receptions per game to receivers outside. He's not based on alignment numbers going to see as we discuss with Nick Bokai yesterday. A lot of Christian Benford, but they could also always put Benford on them. You know, if he if he makes a

19:45play because Benford was doing some serious traveling and shadowing last week, adult and concade, we're already in on that prop from yesterday at 49 and a half. It's been bet up a little bit. Pretty good sign on draft Kings. It's up to 52 and a half. I still like it, but we're inefficiently at 49 and a half. I came messing around with two three yards because no one loses props by two three yards like I do. The Lions last week, the cover three and the cover four unbelievable schematic matchup for Dalton, Concade. They're all good, but 4.2.0 yards per route run against the cover three and cover four last year was outstanding. And again, they also play a good amount of man played man coverage at a top nine clip last week and adult and concade. I don't even have the number in front of me, but it's good. It's like 2.45 yards per route run against man. The main thing with him is health because the snap share was way up as we discussed yesterday.

20:47And that kind of unlocked everything. It's like between DJ Moore and the outside who beats man coverage more than their outside guys last year and concade. It seems like it may have unlocked the entire passing attack. Sam LaPorta next up 45.5 and minus 110. Very tempting, but they are down. They're starting right tackle and three starters on the O line that worries me a little bit, but it is a good schematic matchup against the cover three and the cover six 2.4.4. yards per route run at the end of the day. Buffalo was a nasty matchup for tight ends, but I do expect Detroit to be playing from behind. They are what, 4.5, 5.5 point underdogs on the road. So I do think they'll be playing from behind and LaPorta should get a good number of targets. Khalil Shakir, don't love them against a man, which the lines play a little bit, but otherwise against the cover three and the cover four. It's a pretty good schematic 2.13 yards per route run. Jameer Gibbs, Buffalo did give up the six viewers receiving yards per game to run in backs last season, but I do have an angle on Jameer Gibbs. I mean, Dave Montgomery caught three

21:49balls for 19 yards against his defense last week. James Cook at 17.5. I'm not going to touch that because we just don't know about tie Johnson, Isaac Tesla, based on the alignment numbers. They'll see Christian Bedford. I do have a sneaking suspicious. You could do something, but I can't go there. He's had a bad summer. Keon Coleman should see a lot of Benford, but then again, I don't know if they'd travel him more on Keon Coleman later on in the programming of Josh Palmer at 13.5. It's tempting, but I can't go there and then Dawson Knox as well. Then Russian props, Jameer Gibbs, 87.5, at minus one 13 is down. Three starters on the offensive line. Buffalo did give up the six most adjusted yards before contact and the six most rushing yards last week. And Dave Montgomery, though, only 60 yards on 20 carries. James Cook, Detroit allowed the 10th most adjusted yards before contact. 12th fewest rushing yards per game, though. I do have a prop on James Cook. And then Josh Allen, 33.5. They do play man. It could work out. But Tyler Schuck only ran for

22:53eight yards on four carries last week. And I'm not sure, Alan's, I mean, he'll take off and run here and there. I'm just not sure he's going to be needed as much to take off and run with his legs. I do think Detroit will be kind of in control in this game. Our guy, Tom Braley, the grinder, he is always in control. And he is joining us on the other side. See what he has cooking for Thursday night football. And also for Sunday, I know he's got a Lamar Jackson prop that I like a lot. But first football is back. Don't head into another football season without Veecent Pro. Become a Veecent Pro subscriber today. Get instant access to our updated NFL betting guide. The college football betting guide and the same betting tools pro breters rely on your subscription. Also includes every best bet from Veecent experts in one place plus our expert leader board. Real-time betting split from draft Kings and circa and powered prop projections and matchup tools, proven betting systems, power ratings and analysis 24 seven video on the Veecent watch app.

23:58Get started today for just $9.99 or save 50% with a Veecent Pro annual subscription head to Veecent.com slash subscribe now. That is vsin.com slash subscribe. Tom Braley aka the grinder. He's been grinding all week looking for propage. He's got he's got a play tonight that I'm agreeing with. So stay tuned for that and more on the Thursday edition of Prop Points on Veecent. You're watching prop points with the guru himself John Hansen on Veecent. These sports betting network. Welcome back to a Thursday edition of Prop Points here on Veecent. I'm John Hansen and wasting

25:04no time to go to the progressive guest line to bring in the grinder. Tom Braley writer co-owner at fantasypoints.com on the x machine at Tom Braley betting expert over at fantasypoints.com and I do believe that promo code for the fantasy points betting package still in effect save 70% if you use the promo code grinder and if you would have done it last week you'd be way up right Tom? How's it going? Yeah it was a good week last week 10 and 3 on the player props heck I even went 3 and 1 on my ats props bets to consider there so I did have a give a give out a loser on Monday with the Denver Broncos but no sweat at all with that Rishi rice under he did break the one tackle for a touchdown but there that was not nothing to sweat there with the Rishi rice under so hopefully we have a you know we knock a prop out here early in this game tonight let's not sweat

26:06at all I would I would enjoy that I'm looking forward to this game though it should be a fun one highest total on the board and Detroit coming off in an overtime victory in Buffalo you know finally Josh Allen gets over that hump against that Texans Texans defense so it should be a pretty fun match up here on Thursday night now you've got a little bit of a weird play here but I'm feeling it too and when you and I are in agreement good things usually happen now this puppy has been bet way up but you got believe it or not Keon Coleman over 10 and a half receiving yards but I I still see it I mean the Lions do still play a little bit more man than most teams he's been their man beater big total expected in the game we're showing big edges with the bills defense in terms of the intermediate and deep passing game I definitely think he's going to get some serious

27:08air yards in this one and that's a prop that really only needs to catch one ball for for 12 or you could tell me what it's been bet up to but what are you seeing with Keon Coleman tonight yeah it looks like it has been bet up to like 13 and a half 14 and a half yards so I still like it in that range I would still make this bet I think it should be probably about 15 and a half yards the the market so I still think this is a pretty good spot and I know our projections have him closer to 23 or 24 receiving yards so we we jumped on this one yesterday really like this one it makes me feel totally uncomfortable back in Keon Coleman this is guy that has disappointed throughout his career but the bills are still giving him a chance to carve out a role this season he's the number three wide receiver based on how they used their wide receivers last week we were a little bit unsure Josh Palmer is also in the mix but he he ended up scoring the big touchdown at the end of the game but he played fewer snaps than than the Keon Coleman last week so Coleman was at like 53

28:14or 54% of the routes 17 total routes last week so he was on the field and this is a little bit gave out a DiMario Douglas prop last week we we liked it I liked him because I thought he was going to play more than people thought and he certainly did it wasn't easy to get that prop against the Seahawks with DiMario Douglas but he was out in the field a lot I think we're going to see that with Coleman if he gets you know up above 50% of the routes I think that's a great sign for him all we need is one or two maybe catches and he can get over this total and if we look at the matchup itself John this has been a defense that we've been picking on since last year with the Detroit Lions they're giving up the most receiving yards per game to receivers aligned on the outside so very friendly matchup overall you know the Lions got crushed last week Chris Alave had a big game he had 10 catches for 182 yards Devon Valey had a very nice game so if as long as Josh

29:18Allen to spreads it out a little bit doesn't concentrate at all to Dalton Concade and DJ Moore kind of like he did last week be spreads it around a little bit more I think we get a key on Coleman over his receiving yards I know it's gross I know we don't really trust key on Coleman but this prop is just a little bit too low now you mentioned Demario prop Douglas and I was in on that one as well how about now with a full game without AJ Brown 36.5 I think we're all sharing a brain at fantasy points about Demario Douglas being a very critical player without AJ Brown and he thoughts on pop Douglas with that line there at 36.5 I do do like that one I haven't officially given anything out I'm going to take a deeper dive this afternoon to see if I really like it but I know the Steelers pretty well I watch them quite a

30:19bit and last week Jaylen Ramsey was picked on a little bit he primarily plays in the slot at this point and if he gets in the coverage against Demario Douglas I can certainly see him being picked on so I didn't like how difficult it was for Demario Douglas to get over his total he had five catches only for 20 yards last week but I do think we should see maybe more of the targets going his way with AJ Brown out I do worry a little bit that the Patriots maybe could change how they kind of approach offense for the next couple of weeks maybe they're getting Eli Raredin on the field a little bit more I could see Mac Hollins who's a glorified tight end basically at the the wide receiver position maybe he gets more opportunities but I do think Douglas overall we saw it last week he was he was playing above Romeo dobs at times they really do like pop Douglas so I think he could be the guy that they kind of used to beat the Steelers secondary this week.

31:21Talking about Tom Braali aka the grinder fantasy points dot com on the x machine at the hell is that Tom Braali very easy you know locked it up I got your name. Yep there it is or is it Tom Braali I don't even yeah it is Tom Braali it is Tom Braali yes I don't even know my fan and my thing it's fantasy yeah I don't do it by the way don't follow me I don't care but anyway you like this under on Lamar Jackson passing and I do I do like this quite a bit because obviously I'm not expecting Zay flowers what are you seeing here you're confident I can totally see this under 228.5 yeah this is we're fading Lamar a little bit and this is even if Zay does play I do kind of like this under still but if we get especially if we get Zay out of the lineup which is kind of trending too we'll see the practice reports will come out this afternoon. If he is a DNP again today I would I would doubt that he is going to play so I'm kind of like 80%

32:25that he is probably not going to play in this game even though they're calling it a pretty minor hamstring strain so but this matchup we were picking on this one last year we loved fading quarterbacks in their passing yards against the New Orleans Saints defense and in Brandon Staley they really like to play that zone coverage where they kind of keep everything in front of them no big plays that is the defense that Brandon Staley likes to play didn't loss Angeles so if we look back at the Saints over the last 18 games only four quarterbacks have gotten above 209 passing yards against them since the start of last year so even last week against Jared Gaw one of the guy who finished like second in passing yards yeah it was tough 5.3 yards per attempt he had 68 minutes he had an extra drive to do it he couldn't even get the 210 yards so I'm liking this one a lot I'm the colds last week they did give up a ton of yards 324 yards for some

33:30reason they played a lot of man coverage against the Baltimore Ravens which it's not a great idea with Lamar Jackson and how healthy he looks again and him running around so they're going to play a lot of zone coverage they're going to make Rashad Bateman Chris Moore Mark Andrews some of these lesser guys try to beat them so I like Lamar Jackson under his passing yards this week and by the way knows a flowers in practice today and no Ronnie Stanley as well at left tackles so I would say we're trending toward the Zay flowers not playing you also like that McCaffrey over the rushing yard prop I totally see that as well over 57.5 great stuff as always from the grinder give me a follow on the x machine at Tom Braley and again use promo code grinder for 70% off the betting package over at fantasy points dot com good luck with the place Tom we'll talk to you on Monday and on the other side my official place plus a Thursday night special but first most people think sports betting

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36:51you're watching prop points with the guru himself john Hanson on vesen these sports betting network you final segment here on a Thursday edition of prop points on vesen off to a little bit of a slow start here on the program as far as i'm concerned but that happened last year and we bounced back pretty well in week number two and i'm feeling pretty good about this game and one of the reasons we're off to a slow start quite frankly is we had three standalone national games where half the teams playing well one team in each game didn't show up offensively which threw a serious monkey mentioned everything but i don't think we'll have that problem tonight with the highest total on the board in buffalo the bills favored by four and a half five points highest total on the board what's at fifty two fifty three and a half so we're feeling pretty good about offense although a little little tricky regarding some items like the lions being down three

37:55starters on the offensive line but i do think that i've kind of gone through and and thought things through very very very deeply to come up with some good place well we'll start off with some leans we're popping these out this year just to give out a few more picks we want to be a little bit more selective with the official picks but i will go over on a monro saint brown over seventy nine point five receiving yards that's one yard lower than the decay total by the way this is on bandal at minus one thirteen i mean there is no bad schematic match up for a monro really i mean he is like a handoff in many many ways the bills last week did give up a decent amount of production to the slot they ran cover three and cover six fifty two point four percent of the time with new defensive coordinator Jim Leonard and again among rosary good two point four five yards per route run i just simply think that the bills are going to probably go off on

39:02offense so Detroit is going to have to throw the ball probably on almost every drop back in the fourth quarter quite frankly i just hope that it doesn't get like a blowout where they give up basically that's the worst but Jared goff the hill hill sit back there and sling and he wasn't great last week but he looked like Jared goff i mean he was he was fine getting the ball to amara who had ten grabs last week by the way next up i'm with the grinder tom brolly i'm only going to make it a lean because it's obviously volatile i learned my lesson with that for shard Smith prop alone monday trying to be a hero and i was right that a second running back would get action in the passing game but they opted to go with the rookie which i didn't think they would do in his first pro game but that says a lot about amit johnson but any who only takes one grab for key on Coleman remember that off season he had it was quite uh interesting with the GM and or the owner kind of thrown them under the bus i feel like they'll throw him a little bit of a bone

40:06home opener new stadium nationally televised game as tom brolly mentioned he is still their third receiver played over josh paul mar last week the lions he could see a bit of benford but i don't think they're going to shadow christian benford on key on Coleman and the lines do play still more man coverage than most they played at a top nine clip top nine in man coverage last year and he's their man beater so you know they're gonna i'm really envisioning some air yard plays to key on Coleman only needs to really make one one bigger play uh to come through here those are two leans we also do have a thursday night special coming at you in about five minutes but right now it is time for my top props you've heard the analytics you've heard the stats now it's time for what you've really been waiting for the gurus top props

41:09xenophil football we never know but we lean on the data to help us out data plus some gut feelings and common sense and a general understanding of the national football league as we popped out yesterday adult and concade he probably well he definitely has the best schematic matchup on the boy has it got the best matchup in the game i would say over 49.5 is where i got it it's been bet up a little bit i still like it though i don't i don't think it'll be a huge deal uh two to three yards because i think we're going to see a big player two two adult and concade as i've been mentioning we are showing our data is showing advantages for the bills passing attack in the intermediate and deep passing game and concade can get it done in that area no defense saw more targets to the tight end in week one that alliance saw 14 targets they gave up seven grabs for 87 i'm two touchdowns he had a 69% round share as we've mentioned that was higher than any rafshare

42:11last year he never even got to 60% we lost a couple concade props last year by like two yards and we were right because the schematics look really good but he just missed it because it didn't play a lot well that we feel a lot better about that because the health with that pcl it's it was been nagging him for two years and it looks like he's turned a corner Detroit allows the 12th most receiving yards per game to tight end since 2025 as well and then schematic matchup as we mentioned could not be any better against the cover three and the cover four four point two oh yards per round run against those shells like i said if we cut that in half it's still great so you can't get any better than this and again the lines still do play man he averages a strong two point six three yards per round run against man next up i think jare goff will play well tonight all things considered they're down three starters including their right tackle which is a little bit of a concern but they are once again

43:15pretty heavy road underdogs given up what four and a half five points highest total on the board i absolutely think the bills are going to excel offensively make some big explosive plays and that's going to force jared goff to the air so again i thought he was pretty sharp overall last week so i'm going to go over 23.5 completions as they play hurry up from behind at minus one ten on bent mgm will also i'm a little worried about jameer gibs running the rock i actually went through and looked at five instances in which jameer gibb somehow got ten or fewer carries i'm not expecting to get only ten carries but i don't know if he's going to get to 20 and in those instances he is averaged six point eight catches a game including there's five occurrences of it where he played at least 50% of the snaps but but didn't get over ten carries and in those games five times he averaged six point eight catches per game including two ten

44:21catch games now one of them was ten catches from only 31 but even if he replicated that we'd win this because we're going to go over 29.5 receiving yards at minus one fifteen once again i do think that they're going to be playing from behind and i also worry about their ability to establish their ground attack with jameer gibs with mahogany the left guard out the starting center is out and of course the rookie number one pick at right tackle is out so a lot of dump offs got to get them the ball basically and in the passing attack if you can't run it you got to use jameer gibs they're really light on weapons here you get past gibs aamon ra jamo and la porta there's not much left and then last but not least keeping with the narrative the bills are going to make big plays they're going to have a lead they have an implied total of 30 points which is ridiculous quite frankly so they're

45:21heavy pretty heavy home favorites the choice all kinds of by the way the choice also still down brian branch and curvy joseph so that helps everyone that helps adult and concade it helps the bills but i do think the bills are gonna have a lead and i do believe that they're a little bit more of a passing attack this year a passing team then they are a running team but when they get a lead in the second half joe brady he does love running james cook i think they're just going to feed james cook and he's going to close out the game they're not going to use anyone else probably not ray davis so let's go over 18.5 rushing attempts for mr james cook for the heavily favored bills at minus one oh two on dk last item up is the thirds and i special we'll get to that in a moment but don't go anywhere up next money moves with stomi bonnettoni and jonathan vontobal on today's show jep erickson has his best player props for thursday night football then at four eastern father money mitch moss and paulie howard and then thursday night betcast at eight p.m. where former superbowl

46:26winning wide receiver kieshon johnson and patrick maher break down the thursday night game live my thursday night special we've mentioned it before kian koulman is their man beater he is still their third receiver the lions are very very weak on the back end so kian koulman getting some red zone love perhaps because he is a good red zone threat good sizeable receiver or make it a big play over the top lot of ariars and he takes one to the crib so your thursday night special for number two kian koulman anytime touchdown at plus four hundred make sure you tune in to tomorrow's edition of prop points right here on visan argy josh javalle is been on fire with the college football props i'll also have my week two recommendations until then have a great night we'll catch you maniana

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